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@ILikePie5
Can you blame Club for trusting only me when the other two asking for claims are the ones he believes are scum?
Pokemon Mafia D2
Posts
Total:
652
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@bsh1
To what extent then do you think one's innocence might indicate the other's? If we lynch Mhar, for example, and if he flips town, how likely do you think it is that Club is also town?
My personal belief is that we should lynch Club. If he’s guilty, then Mharman is definitely guilty. If he’s not guilty and is actually a PR, it gets transferred to Mharman supposedly and he can confirm by saving the Poison Target
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@Wylted
I changed my mind on the utility of the lynch given his role is not what I thought it was. I would lynch him if we have no better targets, but right now mharman is an extremely good target. We need to have a consensus on the lynch and not split this, because with plurality scum can choose which lynch they want if we are split
No it’s stupid. Lynching Mharman and him popping innocent won’t exonerate Club with a greater degree of confidence than vice versa
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@Mharman
It is either smart to claim or not. It is irrelevant what affiliation the people who are asking are
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@Wylted
Yeah suspect as fuck. Honestly though my vote is only on mharman or GP though and I will eagerly be building a wagon whatever name my vote is for. I suggest you only pick from those 2 wagons
No, Mharman can be confirmed backup next time someone is poisoned. We have to lynch Club to be able to exonerate Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Yes it will. Because it seems like he is leading him and like there is an orchestrated strategy behind it controlled and implemented by mharman. The strategy uses club but is independent of club so it would do more to know whether this strategy is real or not. Club flipping innocent means he was an unwitting participant. But mharman flipping innocent shows he could not be a witting participant eliminating one possibility. Apply bayes theorem here and you will see mharman's flip is more important than clubs
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@ILikePie5
He can not be confirmed back up. He asked my affiliation and claimed back up after I claimed vanilla. I die at the same time as whoever is lynched making his claim unprovable
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@Mharman
Can you blame Club for trusting only me when the other two asking for claims are the ones he believes are scum?
I asked him as well. Bsh asked him, why didn’t he answer? At best you both are scum partners, I’m trying to help you, but the only way to do that is to lynch Club to prove his stupidity and prove your comments were in sync due to chance if he’s innocent. Now if he flips guilty you’re dead.
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@Wylted
Think through the lenses of Club. What would you do if the people you suspected were scum were asking you to claim?
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@Wylted
Yes it will. Because it seems like he is leading him and like there is an orchestrated strategy behind it controlled and implemented by mharman. The strategy uses club but is independent of club so it would do more to know whether this strategy is real or not. Club flipping innocent means he was an unwitting participant. But mharman flipping innocent shows he could not be a witting participant eliminating one possibility. Apply bayes theorem here and you will see mharman's flip is more important than clubs
If Mharman is leading him then if Club flips innocent then it proves there was zero planning with their comments and it was pure coincidence. Now if Mharman is the backup and that’s a big if, he can be confirmed by saving the next Poison victim. Either flipping inno shows that their comment were coincidence. And I have no clue what Baye Theorem is lol
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@Mharman
I don't consider their affiliation when weighing that decision. I consider whether it is beneficial to claim. It is also stupid to weigh the decision on that from his angle. He o ly suspected them as OMGUS if he is innocent, and only people who think you are scum will ask for claims generally speaking, so by his reasoning. In every possible world it will mean he deflects no matter who asks him. It is also odd that he was acting so abstractly instead of just flatly saying "No I won't claim"
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@ILikePie5
Stop it. Clubs affiliation would not clear or condemn mharman though the opposite is possibly true
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@Wylted
Stop it. Clubs affiliation would not clear or condemn mharman though the opposite is possibly true
I don’t see it brotha, explain it differently por favor
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@ILikePie5
Current possibilities
1. Club is unwitting participant in mharmans plot
2. Club is witting participant
3. There is no conspiracy all is coincidence.
If club flips guilty than we are left with
2. Witting participant
3. Coincidence
If he flips innocent
1. Unwitting
3. Coincidence
If mharman flips guilty
1. Witting
2. Unwitting
If he flips innocent
3. Here coincidence
A mharman lynch gives us more information than a club lynch assuming every possibility is 33%.
Also assuming these numbers are accurate it also makes mharman 66% to be scum and club only 33%
The numbers are actually worse for me, because I assume option 3 is only about a 10% likelihood put option one at about 60% and option 2 at 30%
Some body plug in bayes theorem and tell me the true odds of this
Fine then. Nothing I can say will convince you not to lynch me. So lynch me then. It will only expose Disc and Grey when I flip innocent.
VTL Mharman
unvote VTL mharman.
self voting should be a policy lynch at the very least
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@bsh1
@Wylted
@ILikePie5
@Speedrace
@Club
Just lynch me.
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@Mharman
Not sure why you would do this. It could have easily turned into a GP lynch. No matter what your affiliation. This move was wrong
You flipping g innocent wouldn't expose them either. Just silliness
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@Wylted
Those two used a series of logical fallacies against me
I’m trying to help you, but the only way to do that is to lynch Club to prove his stupidity
Your somehow helping him, by proving my stupidity in what? We both were trying not to get lynched. Same as Mr.Disc here. Why don't you suspect him? And I only didn't answer because I was busy at work.
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@Club
Don't try to not get lynched. Not your obligation. Just look for scum
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@Mharman
Logical fallacies are normal. Most of the stuff we say or do is done with cognitive biases that color our decisions.
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@Wylted
Ok, but that's pretty hard considering the scum I think is trying to get me lynched.
It's clear that Greyparrot and Disc are the scum team. I only defended Mharman because he defended me.
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@Club
You know that scum can defend you and that town can thi k you are guilty right?
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@Wylted
what?
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@Club
Dude are you really this dense. What I said can not be simplified or dumber down any further. A member of town can accuse you of being scum and a member if the scum team can defend you. It does not indicate affiliation