Debate Mafia DP1

Author: AustinL0926

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Savant
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@ILikePie5
Code was wrong. I had a logic error. Here's the right version:

import numpy as np

def runSimulation(numMaf):
    players = [0]*numMaf + [1]*(10-numMaf)
    np.random.shuffle(players)
    players = players[5:]
    players.remove(1)
    np.random.shuffle(players)
    return players[0]


for i in range(2,5):
    sum = 0
    count = 0
    for j in range(50000):
        sum += runSimulation(i)
        count += 1
    print("For ", i, " scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is", sum/count)

Results are not as optimistic:

For  2  scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.75044
For  3  scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.62674
For  4  scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.5013
ILikePie5
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@Savant
Ya I don’t do code, but good for you
whiteflame
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@Casey_Risk
Got some thoughts on the game, but I don’t want to hold this up to write them out:

I’m Theory.

I’ll stick to online players and popcorn to Casey.
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Vader - Solvency - Strategist
Savant - Disclosure - ???
Whiteflame - Theory - ???



whiteflame
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As for some of my thoughts on the game, here are the basics.

It's clear that there isn't a town killing role or a protective role that can prevent the NP2 NK. Both choices would disrupt the numbers required for this setup to progress, so we can assume that the NK will go through (otherwise we won't have 8 at the start of the next DP) and that no one else will die during the night.

Regarding the number of scum, it seems tricky to guess with this setup. Austin allowing the dead to vote ensures that scum cannot become the majority by virtue of eliminating enough people, and if this was a normal game, I'd expect 3 scum. I'd still expect that this game. Having 4 scum would slant the vote significantly, and given that these are silent ballots, there's no risk to them voting together. And 2 scum increases the risk of eliminating them early and ending the game. So I still think 3 is the right balance to strike to make a game like this work, though I'm still trying to get a handle on the details.
Casey_Risk
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
I'm Kritiks. I'll stick with the pattern of picking active players and choose Pie to go next. 
whiteflame
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Anyway, I'm tired and these are just thoughts I'm transcribing from my PMs with Austin when I was asking questions about the setup. I'm going to leave off here and pick this up again tomorrow.
ILikePie5
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Vader - Solvency - Strategist
Savant - Disclosure - ???
Whiteflame - Theory - ???
Casey - Kritiks- ???
Pie - Framework - ???

ILikePie5
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@Bullish
Popcorn u
Bullish
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Nominate Bullish

I haven't read shit yet, but this is an obvious move.
Earth
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Not sure why we are coding. Doesn't seem in the spirit, but whatever.
Bullish
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@ILikePie5
I'm Spreading -- that's SPeed reading, not with peanut butter
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@Bullish
Great choose your next person for popcorn
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@Earth
Since ur here, claim to you

Vader
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Spreading stands out as a claim
Bullish
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I'm trying to think if my role is confirmable... in a typical set it would be, but with these mechanics I have to think about it
AustinL0926
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Nomination:

Vader (1/6): Pie
Bullish (1/6): Bullish

Elimination:

(none)
Bullish
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@Vader
Yeah I can see that lmao
Lunatic
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Hey all not super interested in the mechanics, ill be here, but not very interested. Understand if you wanna lynch me for that. I hate flipless games
WyIted
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@Lunatic
Not a fan either. I also had another game where I didn't know my scum partners and that was a bit annoying. Anyway somebody popcorn to me before I go to sleep and hold up the momentum for like 8 hours
Bullish
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Thinking about my role too, probably not confirmable. I thought I was coming into this game as big town, guess not lol
WyIted
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@Savant
WTF are you talking about about? Nobody wants to see the code just explain what it means
Bullish
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Unnominate
WyIted
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So does nominate do the same thing as lynch?

Somebody is going to have to pretend I am a complete retard and really break this down one rule at a time for me. I guess I can have chat GPT attempt to do it but it's not good with logic
ILikePie5
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Vader - Solvency - Strategist
Savant - Disclosure - ???
Whiteflame - Theory - ???
Casey - Kritiks- ???
Pie - Framework - ???
Bullish - Spreading - ???


Nothing is unordinary so far, but scum could’ve fake claimed as well

Bullish
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Actually if we block the NK I may have some utility
ILikePie5
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As long as we find 3 solid townies, we should win the game because scum can only kill one
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@Bullish
On Night 2, mafia will submit a nightkill. The nightkill will unavoidably go through. 
Bullish
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wait nvm dead players can vote
Casey_Risk
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@WyIted
Basically the player who is nominated won't be placed into the knockout tournament during Round 2.