Debate Mafia DP1

Author: AustinL0926

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Welcome to Debate Mafia! Please read the OP carefully.

Reminders for this day phase:

You have two separate votes; one to nominate a player, and one to eliminate a player. You can have two standing votes at the same time. Please make it clear which vote you are casting. Ambiguous votes will not be counted, and I will try my best to tag you to correct them.

A typical votecount would look like this:

Nomination:
Player1: Player2, Player 3
Player4: Player5

Elimination:
Player 5: Player2, Player3
Player4: Player1
Rules: 

1. Do not copy-paste your role PM. Paraphrasing is fine, but avoid doing so in such a way that allows speculation on the structure/formatting of the PMs. 
 2. Do not edit or delete posts. 
 3. Do not communicate outside of the thread or approved chats (cryptography and liking posts are also not allowed). 
 4. Be nice to each other. Some banter is fine, but don't derail things with personal attacks. 
 5. Respect the spirit of the rules. Pretending to break a rule will be treated similarly to actually breaking it. 
 
Setup Info: 

This setup has unique elimination, voting, and flip mechanics. 

VOTING: Players STILL VOTE AFTER THEY DIE. See below for more details. 

FLIPS: This game is FLIPLESS. When players are eliminated, neither their character, role, or alignment will be flipped. 

ELIMINATIONS: 

On Day 1 (which will be 72 hours long), players will vote to ELIMINATE one player and NOMINATE one player. You will have separate but simultaneous votes for eliminations and nominations. The day will end when both votes have reached a majority, or the deadline has been reached. If the deadline has been reached without a majority, then whoever has the most votes will be chosen. In the event of a tie, mafia privately pick who wins the tie. This vote will be public. 

The eliminated player will die.  

There is no Night 1 kill, but there will still be a night phase.

On Day 2, 8 players (everyone except the nominated player) will be seeded into a knockout bracket, with 4 total matches. 

Every 24 hours, a match will commence between two players. During the match, players (both living and dead) will PRIVATELY submit votes on which of the two players they want eliminated. At the end of the 24-hour period, whoever has more votes will die. Alternatively, the match will end early if enough players submit a FINAL vote (which cannot be changed once submitted) to unavoidably decide the match. 

This will repeat until all matches in the Round of 8 have finished. 

On Night 2, mafia will submit a nightkill. The nightkill will unavoidably go through. If the nightkilled player is not the nominated player, then the nominated player will take their place in the following Round of 4. Otherwise, nothing will happen other than a normal kill. 

Day 3 will work like Day 2, except with 4 players (and 2 matches), as well as 48-hour long matches. 

There is no Night 3 kill, but there will still be a night phase.

Day 4 will work like Day 3, except with 2 players (and 1 match), as well as a 72-hour long match. 

If the last player alive is mafia, then mafia wins. If the last player alive is town, then town wins. No other win conditions exist. There is no third party. 
 
Questions?

I will only answer questions via PM. Generally, I will only give answers to questions regarding public info or your own role.

Living Players:

1. Pie
2. Owen
3. Wylted
4. Casey
5. Vader
6. Savant
7. Lunatic
8. Earth
9. Whiteflame
10. Bullish

Deadline:

The DP ends 72 hours from the first player post in the thread.
AustinL0926
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@Owen_T
Resolved: The day has started.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Bullish
@Savant
THBT that this setup may have been overengineered.
Casey_Risk
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Well, this one ought to be memorable if nothing else. 
Vader
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Ok. I am going to ask a couple more questions and then I think I may claim dependent on Austin's response. I want to ensure I am playing this role correctly.
ILikePie5
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 I’ll try to think of a game theory solution. Idk though 
whiteflame
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Just posting to say I'm here. I'll come back when I have a second.
Vader
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Alright I asked Austin a few questions regarding my role and mechanics and I think I am probably going to hold off on claiming. I thought it was way more OP and allowed me to be town confirmed in DP2, but he balanced it in a way where that wasn't the case. 

ILikePie5
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Ya we need town confirmed roles. The biggest issue is that we won’t know if scum is eliminated, though the odds are good that by the last vote, we’ll have eliminated one
Vader
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I feel like in this game, the more information we have in this game, the better our outcome is going to likely be. When we lack flips and there is only 2 NP's that can have actions, I think this is a rare occasion that I think we could force mass claims. Normally everyone knows my meta and this is going against my meta, but from what I'm collecting there's only 2 phases where roles can be used. The rest comes down to behavior and such. Giving scum time to think of claims would be detrimental and we do know that role PM's did not go out til today and the DP came out right after meaning scum have not given time to give claims. I am all for it  due to the nature of this game
Vader
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Actually wait. I think I can town confirm myself. Hold on
Vader
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Well not fully town confirm but I would find it pretty crazy for scum to have a role like this
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@Vader
I feel like in this game, the more information we have in this game, the better our outcome is going to likely be. When we lack flips and there is only 2 NP's that can have actions, I think this is a rare occasion that I think we could force mass claims. Normally everyone knows my meta and this is going against my meta, but from what I'm collecting there's only 2 phases where roles can be used. The rest comes down to behavior and such. Giving scum time to think of claims would be detrimental and we do know that role PM's did not go out til today and the DP came out right after meaning scum have not given time to give claims. I am all for it  due to the nature of this game
I actually agree with this. Probably best way to do this is to popcorn
Vader
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Ok yeah I am going to claim then. This may be a stupid idea but screw it. 

I am Solvency. Solvency is the most fundamental part of the debate because it can dictate the strategy of a round because you have to answer an opponents solvency. Because of that, I am the Strategist. In NP1, I can get the list of the matchups that will happen in DP2 when the debate occurs. I then can swap 2 members and force them to debate each other 
Vader
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I can confirm this is my role by essentially saying in this DP which matchup I am going to lock in DP2 based on the DP today, and then if that debate happens in the round, it role confirms me (unless you think I correctly guessed a matchup of occuring as scum) and pretty likely town confirms me unless you think this is a scum flavored role
Casey_Risk
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Vader is town. I'm happy to go next if we're popcorning. 
Savant
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@ILikePie5
I’ll try to think of a game theory solution. Idk though
Remember that dead player still vote. If we all agree beforehand on each vote randomly, then the last person alive is a matter of random chance. If there are 2 mafia, we then have 80% odds of victory.
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@Savant
Remember that dead player still vote. If we all agree beforehand on each vote randomly, then the last person alive is a matter of random chance. If there are 2 mafia, we then have 80% odds of victory.
Honestly that’s true, but keep in mind that scum also have NKs which I’m sure affect that percentage
Savant
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@ILikePie5
They have one night kill
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@Vader
Popcorn someone
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@Savant
They have one night kill
That’s true. I’m fine with random voting, though I’d wager scum probably. I’ll nominate Supa for now


Nominate Supa


Savant
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@AustinL0926
will end early if enough players submit a FINAL vote (which cannot be changed once submitted)
So there's no such thing as hammering, unless votes are specified as final?
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@ILikePie5
@Savant
Im gonna popcorn to someone online

Savant I'd like a claim
Savant
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@ILikePie5
I wrote a python script that simulates the game based on making all decisions randomly with the one night kill:

import numpy as np

def runSimulation(numMaf):
    players = [0]*numMaf + [1]*(10-numMaf)
    np.random.shuffle(players)
    players = players[5:]
    players.remove(1)
    return players[3]

for i in range(2,5):
    sum = 0
    count = 0
    for j in range(10000):
        sum += runSimulation(i)
        count += 1
    print("For ", i, " scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is", sum/count)

You can run the code, check it for yourself, etc. Here's the result I get:

For  2  scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.8
For  3  scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.69952
For  4  scum, the odds of town victory with this strategy is 0.59962
Savant
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@Vader
Savant I'd like a claim
I'm Disclosure
Vader
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@Savant
Noted.

You are next for who you would like to popcorn too
Savant
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@ILikePie5
Somehow our odds improve since mafia waits to kill a town. I'm having a hard time figuring that out intuitively, but code is what it is.
Savant
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Reminds me a bit of Monty Hall
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@whiteflame
Popcorn whiteflame
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Mod notes:

There is a themesplit. This is standard, but just making it explicitly clear since it wasn't stated in OP.

Nomination:

Vader (1/6): Pie

Elimination:

(none)