INNOCENT
Greyparrot - Hard town.The reason is simple- his role was stolen, and no one has outed themselves onit yet. Scum must’ve tried to steal a role from him, hoping it was powerful. Idon’t see the point in a power thief being in town’s hands, since it can justbe used as a cop if town has it. From a game design standpoint, the role makesmore sense in mafia’s hands. He can’t be a third party either, since we havetwo of those.
Owen - Third Party. Ithink it’s hard to think he’s lying about his role considering the presence ofa bad cookie giver. Could be revisited as a fake claim later, but seems highlyunlikely.
KEY READS
Banana - Lean scum.Earlier I had thought it was impossible for Banana to be scum based on her 14messages- because according to Whiteflame, she wouldn’t be thinking about theexact number of messages if it was on discord. But this is so wrong. For one, discordsays how many messages one got, for two, the possibility of Wylted sendingmessages on DART, followed by a discord link is obvious. I do it when I hostgames. Earlier, I had considered that those 14 messages might be a detail forthe sake of saying something, but pushed it off. Now, it looks more reasonablethan ever.
On the subject of herclaim, I hate how she CC’d and then took forever to out her power. Her poweritself? Scummy sounding- Whiteflame had a similar power in Bo Burnham andclaimed it, trying to spin it as town. There is a case for herbeing town: CC’ing is risky. If all she wants is a quick kill, it seemsunlikely and desperate. If she really can choose who dies, it could be towny.Didn’t Pie have something similar in Clash of Clans?
And here’s another thing:Could she be lying about being able to choose? What if she kills the hammer? Imisread it earlier because of Whiteflame’s role in the aforementioned game, butif she’s lying, it makes sense. It could lure town into hammering. Depending onwhat her flip reveals, it could be a clue into her teammates. I think she’s scum, butit’s all worth thinking about.
Pie – Lean town. I thinkwe’re too quick to clear Pie here. Yes, being told of Casey’s role could beconsidered a little OP if scum has it, but what’s the point if town has it?Casey gets confirmed regardless by virtue of her ability. If it’s so Pie canget himself lynched so Casey can reverse it, why didn’t he do so? It would’veconfirmed them both. I think there’s a real possibility of Pie being a day rolecop and scum.
What I can’t wrap my headaround is why he thinks he needs to “lead town to victory” when his role hasbeen exhausted and there’s plenty of other townies that can establish a goodread. He thinks Savant was scum and that Banana, who is about to be lynched, isalso scum. Why can’t he trust town to close it out from there, if he dies? Withtwo third parties, surely he knows there has to be only one scum left.
And yet, if he gets Bananaright, he’s likely to be town. I will say that I like how he gave me the timeto post all this- I feel like he’d rush me more if he were scum, although hedid rush me a little.
Joebob – Lean scum. IfBanana flips scum he’ll be my top scumread. He’s given absolutely nothing inthe way of reads and his lack of CC on Banana or Vader irks me. Not only that,but his claim seems like a role designed to counter what Vader has. I’m gonnamake the call here and say they aren’t both town, and Joebob is the most likelycandidate for being Banana’s teammate. I appreciate his willingness to hammerin the event Banana is lying about her role, but it means nothing if she isn’t.
Also worth noting thatJoebob gave nothing useful DP1.
Finally, I don’t like howJoebob rejects the Banana vs. Vader 1v1. I know it’s technically possible forthere to be two killing roles, but not likely, let alone three. I don’t thinkit’s a false dichotomy, and I think scum has an incentive to reject it toprotect a teammate, especially with how Joebob is reacting to it.
Vader – Lean town. A lotof this is based on my read of Banana. I think if she’s scum he’s town and viceversa. I do respect going for Savant since it was his top scumread, and I dothink scum had an incentive to go after Casey for the night kill. This does notmean he shot correctly, but two night kills does look good for him on paper. Ikinda feel it’d be OP for scum to have two night kills, but out of the threekilling roles, his is most likely to be real and town.
Lowkey his on/off FoS onme is fair from his POV and I’m inclined to townread it.
THE PLAN
In essence, I have twoteam theories going: Banana, Joebob, ??? and Vader, Pie, and ??? the former ofwhich is far more likely, but the latter not to be underestimated. I think itis good to have Joebob hammer to test his willingness, although if Banana liedabout her role I’m gonna be curious about a hard bus from Pie, although hewouldn’t be an instant scumread off that. If Banana is telling the truth abouther role I’m thinking it’s Joebob. To cover for Pie beingscum however, I think if Banana’s town she should go for him. If she’s scum, I’mgonna be suspicious if she doesn’t go after Joebob.
Why do I say this? Becauseif she’s town there’s a high chance Vader is scum and Joebob is town. We can pickup Vader next DP, so I think if she’s town she’s better off covering for Pie.His role has no utility left anyway, so I have no problem giving him up. And ifshe’s scum I think she would know we aren’t lynching Vader tomorrow anyway, soshe might still go after Vader, but that would just expose Joebob.
Finally, I motion to giveVader his power. There’s some risk to it, but I think it’d be good to verifyhis role at least. If Banana flips scum as she most likely will, he's proven anyway and has a chance to catch scum, although there's a better play.
OTHER READS
Savant – Slight scum. Iknow Savant’s dead, but since his flip hasn’t been revealed, so I’ll givethoughts. I notice off the bat he was townreading both Banana and Joebobyesterday. For Banana it’s more understandable for the time, but for Joebob Ithink it’s a weird townread. His PM also has the same length that Banana’sdoes. I also didn’t like how he kept pressing Owen last DP, and after Owenclaimed vanilla, he gave no option when he said he wanted claims in post 240 ofDP1. Additionally, some peoplehave been thinking the scum team are noobish, and I can see that with Bananaand Joebob. I get the sense that something went wrong with their plan. I alsothink a third scum player should help them not screw up as bad… so who could theteammate be? No offense to Savant, but I don’t think he’s proven himself yet.
Barney – Null. If we getboth Banana and Joebob and the game doesn’t end, Barney is next up for me. Idon’t buy he was roleblocked last night. I don’t like his interaction withGreyparrot either. And I’m not sure he was roleblocked. I could see him being ateammate of Vader and Pie too, although it’s less likely. DP1 I said that dueto his misunderstanding of Vader’s role, they likely aren’t the same team, butwith his obsession with getting Vader’s role online, I feel like he’s buddyingVader instead if he’s scum.
I guess he could be lax enough to let Banana andJoebob screw up like that. He hasn’t been playing that well for his read on Greyparrot,so letting his scummates mistakes pass could be possible from him.
Lunatic – null. Lunatic isless likely to be lax and he’s good at the game. I think he’d stop Joebob fromclaiming something that could CC Banana if he’s teammates with both. Morelikely to be a teammate of Vader and Pie. I guess I should be open-minded tothe possibility of both Barney and Lunatic along with Vader. His interactionwith Vader early last DP is weird but null, and if Banana flips town he doesn’thave it as bad as Pie. He says his read on Banana wasn’t all that big andbacked off, but why vote in the first place then? I liked it at first but now I’mthinking Austin has a point, it seems off. I also don’t like how he rejects theVader v Banana 1v1.
Austin – Slight town. Likehis contributions so far. Will come down to his claim I suppose, but I think he’sgonna deliver on his promise of his role being extremely townie. I guess it’s possiblehe could be scum if it’s Vader and Pie or Lunatic, but not Banana and Joebob.From my experience, Austin will get on you as your teammate if he thinks you’remaking a mistake. There’s no way he lets Banana and Joebob screw up like thatif all the latter are scum. Although Austin not having a scumread until post147 of this DP is weird, and he also rejects the 1v1.
I guess some townies haveto be reading it incorrectly since so many of them reject the 1v1. Doesn’tchange the fact that scum has the incentive to blend in with it.
Whiteflame – Lean town. Probably my hardest town readoutside of Greyparrot. Everything in Whiteflame’s reads looks reasonable, and Ilike how he took the time to say he did not steal Greyparrot’s role, which issomething Joebob and Lunatic didn’t do. Sure, Bio-engineer is scummy and scumhas incentive to deny, but I can’t fathom staying radio silent on it so I thinkscum has a greater incentive on that, which makes Whiteflame less scummy bycomparison. Only person who seems to acknowledge the 1v1 iirc.
