ERB Mafia DP1

Author: Casey_Risk
Mafia

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#31
whiteflame
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@Savant
Forgot to ask this earlier, but what does being a millionaire have to do with leaving a message after death?
I'm guessing the idea is that a millionaire has a lot of money to will to their descendants. The version of the role I've seen before wills items they've received to others, but given that that phrasing is absent from GP's claim, it's likely there either aren't items or that's otherwise not a factor in this game.

Austin's first post comes off a bit scummy to me. Maybe it's just because of how many times I've played with him specifically. As town he tends to start with posts that move the game forward, whereas when he's scum he's more likely to make posts that try to avoid any suspicion. i.e. "just checking in" or "Pie SOP claiming makes sense" which contributes very little.

VTL Austin
I'm not going to read too much into an initial post. Where Austin goes from here will matter more than where he started. If there's a pattern there, it'll become more apparent.
#32
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@whiteflame
Savant pivots from initially "too much info" in my claim by stating it is a copy/paste...to all of a sudden "not enough info:"

A town player doesn't pivot like that for no and with no reason.
#33
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@Greyparrot
My experience with Savant is that he tends to pivot quite a bit in his susses, though he does that as both scum and town and has been sussed for doing it before.
#34
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@Savant
Austin's first post comes off a bit scummy to me. Maybe it's just because of how many times I've played with him specifically. As town he tends to start with posts that move the game forward, whereas when he's scum he's more likely to make posts that try to avoid any suspicion. i.e. "just checking in" or "Pie SOP claiming makes sense" which contributes very little.

VTL Austin
Believe it or not, eating lunch is not alignment indicative.
#35
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@AustinL0926
Ok, I buy this. I don't think Austin would lie about eating lunch just to throw off suspicion.

Unvote
#36
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Mixed feelings on Savant so far - I think his initial sus on me is kinda towny and shows good thought process, but his weird focus on GP could be performative - atp, asking GP whether he copy-pasted doesn't change anything and could come off as fake concern.

Probs still throwing him in the townbin for now.

GP's role is probs just town-alignment from rough balancing analysis, it's simply a useless role for mafia to have since no one will listen to them after they die. That being said, it's not confirmable so it's only towny if true. I'd consider it slightly town in a vacuum. I think his focus on Savant is indicative of genuine curiosity, I tr him a lot more for that imo.

Vader, Luna, feel ok.

WF's casualness and thoughts so far feels slightly towny but he always does regardless of alignment so I'm going to call him null for now.

Pie's claim and willingness to be a policy lynch is very likely town. Technically confirmable although I'd advise against it.


#37
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@Savant
Ok, I buy this. I don't think Austin would lie about eating lunch just to throw off suspicion.

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Hm. If I was scum, how do you think I would've responded? Because I probably would've replied the exact same way I just did as either alignment.
#38
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@AustinL0926
If I was scum, how do you think I would've responded?
Maybe my instincts on your second post were off, but if they are then I shouldn't trust my instincts on your first post either. Either way, it cancels out and I don't have a great reason to keep a vote on you.
#39
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@AustinL0926
Also, regardless of whether you are scum, I don't think you are lying about being busy. In which case, my reason for sussing your first post lacks weight.
#40
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I buy that.

Savant probs town, don't think he immediately goes for me considering he's seen me get in a lot of protracted 1v1s and often not back down. In general, for mafia, it's not really a great play to get caught in a 1v1 because even in the best case scenario where they win, they don't come out looking good.

Thread feels reasonably towny, might be 1-2 in the players who haven't checked in yet.
#41
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@Savant
Austin's first post comes off a bit scummy to me. Maybe it's just because of how many times I've played with him specifically. As town he tends to start with posts that move the game forward, whereas when he's scum he's more likely to make posts that try to avoid any suspicion. i.e. "just checking in" or "Pie SOP claiming makes sense" which contributes very little.

VTL Austin
I checked back to like Austin’s last 5-6 games. This tell is accurate in basically all but one game. That game, he didn’t contribute much first post but was town. How far back did you look to identify this trend?
#42
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@ILikePie5
Just a few games, but it's mostly memories from playing a lot of games with him.
#43
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@ILikePie5
How many of the games you looked at was he scum?
#44
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Figured I'd compile a list of probable ERBs in this game. I've excluded the 2 known ERBs and I'll give away that mine is in to this group. Still struggling to think of splits beyond a basic distinguishing element like "Villain vs. Villain" or instances of recurring characters, which do occasionally happen in ERBs (I think Abraham Lincoln showed up 3 times after his first appearance, always in a political match-up after he battled Chuck Norris).

Rasputin vs. Stalin
Jim Henson vs. Stan Lee
Darth Vader vs. Hitler
Steven Spielberg vs. Alfred Hitchcock
Jack the Ripper vs. Hannibal Lecter
Joker vs. Pennywise
Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
Mozart vs. Skrillex
Luke Skywalker vs. Harry Potter
Edgar Allan Poe Vs. Stephen King
Albert Einstein vs. Stephen Hawking
J.R.R. Tolkien vs. George R.R. Martin
James Bond vs. Austin Powers

#45
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@whiteflame
Ok, you lost me. What's the connection?
#46
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@Savant
I’m doing some admittedly limited theme analysis based on my take-aways from the two claims so far and from my own ERB. It’s not meant to connect with your ongoing conversation with Pie and Austin.
#47
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@Savant
How many of the games you looked at was he scum?
I think two. I’ll have to go back again. Your memory is great if you remembered this specific thing.
#48
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@whiteflame
Oh, I know. Just wondering if you were willing to share ideas about the theme split yet.
#49
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@whiteflame
I meant "connection" as in between the battles you listed.
#50
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@ILikePie5
If you can, see how often Austin appeals to real-life circumstances to explain his behavior (i.e. "I was having lunch") and whether he does that more as scum or town.
#51
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@whiteflame
Mine is on the list, if it helps your analysis.
#52
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@Savant
Ah, I misunderstood. I don’t think there’s a uniting  theme on town, I just don’t see that as probable given the wide range. I think it’s more likely that there’s a separate pair that’s distinct from the rest in some fashion.
#53
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@whiteflame
How did you decide which battles would probably be in the game then?
#54
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@Savant
Based on the existing claims and my own, these seem to be popular ERBs. That’s pretty consistent between just choices I would pick and ones I found that the online that are generally regarded as the “best.”
#55
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Ok I think I have the theme split based on these answers but I'm going to wait for others to come forth with claims
#56
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So Grey's role is essentially useless. I don't think I've ever really seen that role being used or it's significance
#57
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@AustinL0926
Believe it or not, eating lunch is not alignment indicative
Depends. If you had a tuna sandwich I’d say that’s pretty scummy. Ham sandwich your probably in the clear.
#58
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Hmmm. Pie's East vs West stands out on the claims chart but I am not willing to jump to any conclusion yet about chars and theme split. Pie is also playing this game very meta for how he treats SOP. But his meta is usually consistent whether he's town or scum.
#59
ILikePie5
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Choose Your Role - Town - Substantive/Move Forward
Inheritance Cycle - Scum - Fluff (next post is substance)
Albums - Town - Substantive/Move Forward
Classic Movies - Scum - Sorta Both?
Indian Politicians - Town - Fluff
US Presidential Elections - Town - Substantive
Middle School - Town - Fluff (next post is substance)

Overall, looks like it’s not affiliation indicative 


#60
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@whiteflame
Figured I'd compile a list of probable ERBs in this game. I've excluded the 2 known ERBs and I'll give away that mine is in to this group. Still struggling to think of splits beyond a basic distinguishing element like "Villain vs. Villain" or instances of recurring characters, which do occasionally happen in ERBs (I think Abraham Lincoln showed up 3 times after his first appearance, always in a political match-up after he battled Chuck Norris).

Rasputin vs. Stalin
Jim Henson vs. Stan Lee
Darth Vader vs. Hitler
Steven Spielberg vs. Alfred Hitchcock 
Jack the Ripper vs. Hannibal Lecter
Joker vs. Pennywise
Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
Mozart vs. Skrillex
Luke Skywalker vs. Harry Potter 
Edgar Allan Poe Vs. Stephen King
Albert Einstein vs. Stephen Hawking
J.R.R. Tolkien vs. George R.R. Martin
James Bond vs. Austin Powers

I think everyone should say whether they’re on the list or not and if not, we can ask 
I agree with this. If they’re not on this list, then they should state their season to help limit fake claims.