Choose Your Role DP3

Author: Lunatic

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ILikePie5
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@Earth
A) i felt like I didn't really have a good option besides hipfiring.
So you had no scum reads at all?
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@ILikePie5
I was scum reading Vader pretty hard yesterday, but I felt some nagging doubts. I can't really rationalize why a scum Vader would waste his double vote like that.

@WF

Tbh you are in my PoE. Nothing more. And yes, I purposely bolded my day vig in the DP for a reaction check. I am supposed to PM Vader. It does not end the day btw.
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@Earth
I was scum reading Vader pretty hard yesterday, but I felt some nagging doubts. I can't really rationalize why a scum Vader would waste his double vote like that.
To secure the lynch cause otherwise he was going to get lynched seems like a good reason. Not to mention confirm ability.

@WF

Tbh you are in my PoE. Nothing more. And yes, I purposely bolded my day vig in the DP for a reaction check. I am supposed to PM Vader. It does not end the day btw.
Why would you not shoot someone especially when we had no NK during NP1. We’re literally playing a game of POE.
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I'm glad that Earth understands my perspective, but it still doesn't help that he should've used his ability last DP. It would've helped town out way much more. Even if you lose a vote and putting hindsight aside, if Savant flipped scum then it's only 1 scum that can force a mislynch. Idk something seems so much more off about that 
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@ILikePie5
Unvote until Earth claims 
Fair enough.

Unvote

Just got out of work, will post my thoughts when I get home. 
whiteflame
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I'm going to call it here for tonight. I will say that it's frustrating to only find out about this actually being a Day Vig this late. At 7-2, using it would have been very helpful in reducing PoE. Now, with 5-2, it puts us at MYLO.
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@Vader
But then you lazily threw it away just to vote for Savant when you knew I had a double voter role that I was going to use on Savant.
You're doing that thing you did in Years Mafia where you tried to accuse me of being scum based on one line of logic, then I effectively rebutted it, so you immediately pivot to a different line of logic. It's how I knew you were scum even before WF CC'ed you. I didn't consider Earth at all, except I did, so the actual reason I'm scum is that I didn't stay on him after it became clear that the wagon wasn't going anywhere, and I still clearly stated that I believed he was scum. Right.

Also, I appreciate the subtle deflection, making me seem sus for "basically putting Savant at L-1", but we ought not sus you for literally putting him at L-1, which conveniently for you, you didn't know would be a hammer, it was just a coincidence. How interesting.

Like I said, it's clear that mafia waived the NK to try and cause pandamonium. And it's working lmao. Earth then was the first to capitalize on it then for quite literally no reason besides saying, I didn't get roleblocked because I had a day action, and thus never got a notification
Occam's Razor. Do I believe that the mafia waived after seeing the town's only negative utility role get lynched, knowing he would be revived, stripped of neg utility status, and be confirmed town, and still decided to not kill anybody? Or do I believe that the scum team just screwed up their night actions? I'm leaning towards the second.

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@whiteflame
As for the choice of NK, I'm definitely surprised. Not sure why scum would have targeted WyIted beyond him being widely townread, since he had already claimed to use his role. I was the obvious target, and I fully expected to be the NK. Nonetheless, I chose to target Earth and it came back innocent.
This is actually a really interesting point. I, too, was surprised to see Wylted be the kill. I think we have to take modpsych into account. I've brought this up several times before, but Luna has said that he thinks Cop is basically the most powerful town role out there, which is why he often doesn't include one at all, and when he does, he makes it easily counterable. I can dig up the quote if you want, but I know he talked about it in the US Presidential Elections Mafia Endgame thread. Knowing this, I think the most likely explanation is that the mafia has a good way to counter a Cop, and they were willing to rely on it rather than taking the safe option and trying to kill you. Food for thought.
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@AustinL0926
It's complete garbage to do as a townie especially since he was yapping d1 about how my choice to choose hammerer was bad for town. Put simply, his decision to rush the day conflicts with his stated philosophy.

He also made several posts about how it could be a frame by mafia to implicate both himself and Savant. So claiming that he was "certain" Savant was scum is simply a provable lie.
These are both great points.
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I hate Earth's claim. He has to direct message his target in order to shoot them? And I do not understand his reasoning for why WF and I are the scum team. I'm fine with him scumreading me -- I think I should be in everyone's PoE right now -- but why does he pair me with WF specifically? "WF is in my PoE" doesn't cut it for me.

His reasoning for why he doesn't scumread Vader now also makes no sense, as Pie already pointed out. Vader did not in any way "waste" his double vote; he used it to quickly get a useful target lynched. If Savant hadn't been lynched yesterday, it almost certainly would have been Vader, and lynching the town RBer was useful for the scum team.

Yeah, I was completely right last DP, the scum team is Earth/Vader.
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@Casey_Risk
But then you lazily threw it away just to vote for Savant when you knew I had a double voter role that I was going to use on Savant.
You're doing that thing you did in Years Mafia where you tried to accuse me of being scum based on one line of logic, then I effectively rebutted it, so you immediately pivot to a different line of logic. It's how I knew you were scum even before WF CC'ed you. I didn't consider Earth at all, except I did, so the actual reason I'm scum is that I didn't stay on him after it became clear that the wagon wasn't going anywhere, and I still clearly stated that I believed he was scum. Right.
I never acused you of being scum. In fact you are not in my scum reads. And didn't you agree with Wylted that shifting reads is town? 
And the only reason you have to suspect me is that Savants action was on me, when he have mafia establish mafia could have easily waived the kill. You are not thinking about all logical processes. I am trying to get you to look deeper than a simple 1v1 that complety fucks over town if they lynch me.
Also, I appreciate the subtle deflection, making me seem sus for "basically putting Savant at L-1", but we ought not sus you for literally putting him at L-1, which conveniently for you, you didn't know would be a hammer, it was just a coincidence. How interesting.
My vote was always going to be Savant. The concensus lynch was Savant. Wylted was derailing the town and pushing the same thing. 
Like I said, it's clear that mafia waived the NK to try and cause pandamonium. And it's working lmao. Earth then was the first to capitalize on it then for quite literally no reason besides saying, I didn't get roleblocked because I had a day action, and thus never got a notification
Occam's Razor. Do I believe that the mafia waived after seeing the town's only negative utility role get lynched, knowing he would be revived, stripped of neg utility status, and be confirmed town, and still decided to not kill anybody? Or do I believe that the scum team just screwed up their night actions? I'm leaning towards the second.

We have to go through every feasible action possible and not gun hoe. You jumped straight to the gun on this lynch without a second without reading the possibilities.
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@AustinL0926
It's complete garbage to do as a townie especially since he was yapping d1 about how my choice to choose hammerer was bad for town. Put simply, his decision to rush the day conflicts with his stated philosophy.
Normally I agree. However the circumstances of this game made me quick hammer using the role. For 1. we could easily afford a lynch in this DP, 2. We had enough preliminary info to get a mislynch. WF going after Wylted when wylted was gun hoe on Savant 
He also made several posts about how it could be a frame by mafia to implicate both himself and Savant. So claiming that he was "certain" Savant was scum is simply a provable lie.
Pie literally came up with a 3rd of us both being town that you simply are not reading into. You are so dead locked and not thinking critically about any of the actions of the other that could have been beneficial.

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@Vader
I never acused you of being scum. In fact you are not in my scum reads. And didn't you agree with Wylted that shifting reads is town? 
That's what I got out of you saying "Seriously cmon let's think a bit more critically. Unless you and him are scum team" while being very aggressive against me. Also, I don't remember ever saying that shifting reads is town.

I should also note that your behavior here is completely in line with your scum meta. As town, you're overly apologetic for your mistakes, like in Shocking TV Moments. As scum, you become aggressive.

I'm not going to bother going line-by-line with the rest of your post because that would be a waste of time. Occam's Razor, basic role analysis, basic behavioral analysis, doesn't matter, they all point squarely at you.
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@Casey_Risk
I never acused you of being scum. In fact you are not in my scum reads. And didn't you agree with Wylted that shifting reads is town? 
That's what I got out of you saying "Seriously cmon let's think a bit more critically. Unless you and him are scum team" while being very aggressive against me. Also, I don't remember ever saying that shifting reads is town.

I should also note that your behavior here is completely in line with your scum meta. As town, you're overly apologetic for your mistakes, like in Shocking TV Moments. As scum, you become aggressive.

I'm not going to bother going line-by-line with the rest of your post because that would be a waste of time. Occam's Razor, basic role analysis, basic behavioral analysis, doesn't matter, they all point squarely at you.

I messed up my PM in that game, hence why I was apologetic... Gave town useless info that clouded the game.
Didn't do that in this game. Using my ability to vote someone who was scumread isn't screwing up the game, especially considering we are a day phase ahead and by all metrics projected to win this game if we lynch right.
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@Casey_Risk
Building of #44 as well. I know my scum behavior pretty well for the most part and unless I'm mafia and I know I am set and stone cooked I usually disengage in the DP and try to work behind the scenes. I think a few people can attest to that
Greyparrot
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Vader would have made ballsy plays as scum. I also have a gut feeling that scum team probably claimed early and tried to role confirm early knowing they had very towny fake claims. I am gonna go over a chronological order of claims when I get a chance.
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What I meant to say is that it seems like scum team would have taken a huge risk to hammer when a town person usually wouldn't see it that way. I could maybe see Wylted doing that, but not a seasoned player.
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@Greyparrot
@ILikePie5
@AustinL0926
Final thing before I go away. Put yourself in my shoes. My role expires at MYLO/LYLO. Why would I use a role that could send us to 3v2 or a 4v1. Versus one that sends us to a 6v1 or a 5v2. I played the role a lot more beneficially to town and if I were scum I would’ve saved it for this DP. Unless you think I’m actively shooting myself in the foot to try and gain town cred which at this point just take a hard look in the mirror.

Yes I know I probably rushed the vote and hammered too early. Looking back I honestly probably shouldn’t have done that. Tbh should’ve probably asked if I could just double vote at L-1 to spare any neg utility but tbh I was very confident in my savant read and maybe a bit too tunnel vision than I like to admit 
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I pinged these 3 because they are my top town reads 
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@Casey_Risk
Sorry, I mixed up Vader and Lunatic lmao. Obviously I PM the mod.
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@Vader
That's sus to  just now tell us the lylo limitation.  Austin told it immediately if I recall.
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@Greyparrot
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
I'm going to call it here for tonight. I will say that it's frustrating to only find out about this actually being a Day Vig this late. At 7-2, using it would have been very helpful in reducing PoE. Now, with 5-2, it puts us at MYLO.
My working theory is that he is scum and “saving” the extra kill till LYLO so scum can auto win. It just doesn’t make sense to avoid using it for 2 DPs straight when there were plenty of targets. He’s also implying that he didn’t scum read anyone, which is just not true considering he voted to lynch Austin DP1. An Earth/Supa team is likely imo.

I suggest we force him to shoot Supa today. If Supa is somehow magically town, we no lynch and go into LYLO tomorrow not worrying about this. If Supa is scum, then we go ahead and lynch Earth. I hate the balance analysis argument but it makes sense for the second kill cause GP can theoretically revive a townie.
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@Vader
Normally I agree. However the circumstances of this game made me quick hammer using the role. For 1. we could easily afford a lynch in this DP, 2. We had enough preliminary info to get a mislynch. WF going after Wylted when wylted was gun hoe on Savant 
Explain.

Pie literally came up with a 3rd of us both being town that you simply are not reading into. You are so dead locked and not thinking critically about any of the actions of the other that could have been beneficial.
I also said it doesn’t make sense
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@Vader
Final thing before I go away. Put yourself in my shoes. My role expires at MYLO/LYLO.
Why are you saying this now? You had ample opportunity to say it yesterday but did not. Why? What’s the point in hiding the fact that you couldn’t use it at MyLO/LyLO

Why would I use a role that could send us to 3v2 or a 4v1. Versus one that sends us to a 6v1 or a 5v2. I played the role a lot more beneficially to town and if I were scum I would’ve saved it for this DP. Unless you think I’m actively shooting myself in the foot to try and gain town cred which at this point just take a hard look in the mirror.

Yes I know I probably rushed the vote and hammered too early. Looking back I honestly probably shouldn’t have done that. Tbh should’ve probably asked if I could just double vote at L-1 to spare any neg utility but tbh I was very confident in my savant read and maybe a bit too tunnel vision than I like to admit 

Or you’re scum.
ILikePie5
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@Earth
@Greyparrot
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@Casey_Risk
See post 52
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@ILikePie5
My working theory is that he is scum and “saving” the extra kill till LYLO so scum can auto win. It just doesn’t make sense to avoid using it for 2 DPs straight when there were plenty of targets. He’s also implying that he didn’t scum read anyone, which is just not true considering he voted to lynch Austin DP1. An Earth/Supa team is likely imo.

I suggest we force him to shoot Supa today. If Supa is somehow magically town, we no lynch and go into LYLO tomorrow not worrying about this. If Supa is scum, then we go ahead and lynch Earth. I hate the balance analysis argument but it makes sense for the second kill cause GP can theoretically revive a townie.
I'll give this some thought, though I highly doubt that scum were given an extra killing role, not to mention a day killing role with only one Protective role in play (and only one of those even being useful in this instance [the BP] and only then as self-defense), and that Earth would out himself as having it if he was scum and waiting to use it. That doesn't line up for me.
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@ILikePie5
Having Earth dayvig Vader seems optimal for poe.
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@whiteflame
I'll give this some thought, though I highly doubt that scum were given an extra killing role, not to mention a day killing role with only one Protective role in play (and only one of those even being useful in this instance [the BP] and only then as self-defense), and that Earth would out himself as having it if he was scum and waiting to use it. That doesn't line up for me.
It balances well with the Reviver that GP has. I just want to avoid the headache of this being a possibility tomorrow because his reasoning for saving it is garbage. If Earth refuses, then we lynch him, plain and simple.
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@ILikePie5
It balances well with the Reviver that GP has. I just want to avoid the headache of this being a possibility tomorrow because his reasoning for saving it is garbage. If Earth refuses, then we lynch him, plain and simple.
I... really don't like how you're talking about balance this way when just two DPs ago, you were dismissing balance altogether as not meaningful in this game due to Luna's OP. Considering it was never a guarantee that GP was going to pick the Reviver role, the notion that it's there to balance a Killing role that was definitely going to exist regardless and be scum-sided to boot just doesn't sit well with me, either. Nor do I like this attitude that it's either Vader or Earth that has to die.

I'll revisit this when I have more time, but as of now, I'm not liking this post.
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@whiteflame
I... really don't like how you're talking about balance this way when just two DPs ago, you were dismissing balance altogether as not meaningful in this game due to Luna's OP.
I said I hate making the balance argument in the first place, but it’s a possibility nevertheless. My main point is that I want to avoid the possibility because it explains why Earth hasn’t used his ability yet especially since he is lying that he didn’t scumread anyone yet he voted to lynch Earth.

Considering it was never a guarantee that GP was going to pick the Reviver role, the notion that it's there to balance a Killing role that was definitely going to exist regardless and be scum-sided to boot just doesn't sit well with me, either. Nor do I like this attitude that it's either Vader or Earth that has to die.
I know it was never a guarantee. But the option was there. Anyways forget about the balance argument.  Who else are you entertaining as scum right now? 

I'll revisit this when I have more time, but as of now, I'm not liking this post.
Just forget about the balance argument. It’s conceivable that scum could have an extra kill, and Earth hasn’t exactly played in a townie way today.