Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP4

Author: ILikePie5

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#1
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Lynched DP1:

None.


Died NP1:

Casey - You are Murtagh. From the moment you were forced into Galbatorix’s service, you fought against the weight of your heritage, refusing to be defined by the actions of your father, the first of the Forsworn. Your pride pushes you to prove you are more than your lineage, making you fiercely independent and determined to carve your own path, even if it means facing everything alone. When you first encounter Eragon, you are quick to assert that you want nothing to do with the Varden. You value your autonomy above all else, unwilling to accept help, even when you know you need it. Your pride is evident when you refuse to join the Varden outright, even after seeing the evil that Galbatorix has wrought. But as the events unfold, your pride becomes both a strength and a trap. When Galbatorix forces you to serve him, using his magic to control you, your internal conflict intensifies, until you break free with the power of love. Therefore, you are the Prideful Townie. If more than one person targets you during the night, their actions will fail. You win with the Town.

———————————————

Lynched DP2:

Wylted - You are Galbatorix. Your ability to probe minds is a manifestation of your powerful magic and complete control over others. As the dark king who seeks to dominate Alagaësia, you use this mental intrusion to assert your authority and control those around you. Your ability to probe minds allows you to uncover secrets and twist the thoughts of your enemies or subordinates to suit your needs. You can invade a person's consciousness without their consent, exposing their innermost thoughts and weaknesses. This power becomes one of the key reasons you are such a dangerous adversary, as it serves as both a weapon and a method of psychological control that leaves those you target unable to trust their own minds. Therefore, you are the 2x Prober. Each night, you may investigate someone and learn their alignment. However, if you probe a town-aligned player, that player will permanently lose their abilities (become vanillaized). You win with the Town.


Died NP2:

Earth - You are Roran. You are given the name "Stronghammer" as a reflection of your immense strength, both physically and in character. The name comes after a pivotal moment in Eldest, when you lead the villagers of Carvahall to safety despite the many dangers posed by Galbatorix's forces. Your determination, bravery, and physical strength shine as you step into the role of protector for your people, refusing to let them fall under the control of the king’s forces.When Carvahall is attacked and you’re forced to fight, you wield a hammer as your weapon of choice, representing your power and resolve. But your strength isn’t just physical; it's also in your unwavering will to protect those you love, especially your cousin, Eragon, and the people of Carvahall. Over time, "Stronghammer" became a name known across Alagaësia, a symbol of your courage, resilience, and determination. Thus, you are the Hammerer. If at any point in time, a player is at L-1, you will passively hammer that person if you are not on the wagon. You win with the Town.

———————————————

Lunatic - You are Eragon. The word Brisingr holds deep significance for you, symbolizing your growing power as a Dragon Rider and your connection to magic. Brisingr is the ancient language word for fire. It is the first word of power you speak to summon flames when you’re in a life-threatening situation, and instinctively, you use the word to create fire and defend yourself in the first book. When the time comes to name your newly forged sword, you name it Brisingr. Because of your connection to the word, the sword becomes engulfed in flames—creating a deadly fire sword to use in battle. For this reason, you are the Arsonist. Each night, you may choose to "prime" one player of your choice. Alternatively, instead of priming, you may choose to "ignite", killing one primed player of your choice (note that you can only ignite ONCE in the game). You win with the Town.


———————————————

Remaining Players:

1. ADOL
2. Mharman
3. Whiteflame
4. Austin
5. Cerulean



With 5 players left, it takes 3 to lynch. The day phase will end in 72 hours on Wednesday January 15, 2024 at 12:30pm CST.


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#2
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
DP4 is up
#3
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@Cerulean
Well, we might as well test this since I didn’t get a message saying my action failed. I targeted you (strongest townread after Luna, least likely to be NK’d due to your role) and I gave a different 15 letter word. 50% chance this works if you get it:

I just want to show you I appreciate you for all your hard work in this game. If I was writing a book about this game, I’d put your name right at the start in a section I’d use to show I care about your contributions.
#4
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@whiteflame
I know the word. Does your role still longer work if I say it out loud?
#5
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@Mharman
Good question. I’ll check with Pie.
#6
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@whiteflame
Does you role still work or no longer work*

I could tell Cerulean the word if he's not able to get it
#7
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@Mharman
I could tell Cerulean the word if he's not able to get it
I think I’ve been blatant enough, and I don’t think it’ll affect anything for you to say it, but I’m double-checking just in case.
#8
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Regardless, I still think there's one scum between Cerulean and Whiteflame. Two weak roles that are somewhat investigative (in that they can be used to town confirm someone) in a game where Wylted's role can be used to town confirm tow townies, plus Earth's role town confirming himself.

I just don't think there's enough room for all that. There's an outside chance the setup was fumbled like that, but I'm gonna need a strong town case for both and I haven't seen one for either, outside of Whiteflame's claim being very stupid if he's scum. I haven't liked either's behavior all game.

I'm not sure one being town necessarily clears the other, but I'm undecided on Austin and I don't townread ADOL as hard as I used to, so if one's scum there's a good chance the other is town based off that.
#9
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*two townies
#10
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*I'm not sure one being scum clears the other
#11
AustinL0926
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Going to be on the road for most of today, I can check in tonight
#12
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remember not to vote unless you're absolutely sure the person you're voting is scum since it's LYLO
#13
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Right now, I townread Cerulean the most based off behavior and Luna's legacy - if he says WF gets confirmed, then I'll probs just trust him, don't think town can win in a world where Cerulean and WF are both scum anyway.

If WF doesn't get confirmed, it becomes trickier - we'll just have to deal with that when it comes. Hopefully when I come back tonight, the game is easy and solved. Anyway, again, don't rush to vote, we have three days and there's no margin for error rn.
#14
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There's one scenario I may have to consider both being town and there's a 50% chance it happens even if both are town. 
#15
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I’m going to keep analysis light until Cerulean gets on, and I’m going to a movie this afternoon that will delay my posting until the evening.

Suffice it to say I still think ADOL comes off as particularly scummy after that move at the end of the DP to VTL Mharman. He’s new to this, but that felt particularly tailored to alleviate suspicions in a way that only raised mine. I’ll leave it there and discuss my suspicions regarding who I think his partner is later.
#16
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Oh, and it also doesn’t appear to matter if someone else says it. I’m the only one who cannot, but Cerulean must.
#17
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@Cerulean
ok. 

"Acknowledgements"

now we wait and see

In the mean time, lemme think on ADOL and Austin
#18
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@Mharman
Just noting that that word is 16 letters. Careful of those plurals.
#19
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Cerulean could say both
#20
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Currently mired in an angleshoot that I need to double-check with Mharman's role, I might have hallucinated it though.

The problem is, and I did not think of this until Night already came, is that if WF is a fatal version of Voodoo Lady, saying the word would instantly end the game for a Mafia win. So I'm going to think it through before I actually do it.

#21
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Okay, the angleshoot tells me nothing.
#22
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The problem is, and I did not think of this until Night already came, is that if WF is a fatal version of Voodoo Lady, saying the word would instantly end the game for a Mafia win. So I'm going to think it through before I actually do it.
I mean, I guess it's not impossible, though don't think I would have just given away my actual role while simultaneously rewriting it to craft a town role... though now you're giving me ideas for future games...
#23
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As I see it, we're kind of stuck here until a decision is made.

If Cerulean chooses to type the word, then we move forward from whatever results, which unfortunately may still be nothing after so many attempts. I'll be glad I got to try it at least.

If he doesn't, then we decide who to lynch absent those results, and frankly, in that case, I should be on the chopping block automatically. If there's too much risk in typing the word this DP, and that likely won't change next DP (when I'll probably be dead anyway since scum would have no choice but to leave Cerulean alive given his role and I at least have a PR that could potentially be dangerous). Cerulean is my strongest townread and, absent Mharman's opinion that he or I are scum (I'm unclear on how ADOL perceives him), the most widely townread player in this game right now. Luna townread him, and I agree with his view. If I didn't, I wouldn't have selected him as my target. So, if Cerulean chooses to VTL me, I'll consider my lynch a given.

#24
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the most widely townread player in this game right now. Luna townread him, and I agree with his view.
Confirmed town means they won't lie about threats to the town, it doesn't mean their suspicions are correct. Lunatic and I both leaned towards lynching Wylted and he was town.

The town loses if we don't lynch scum this time.

                                      Character                                      Role                                                         NP1                                                     NP2
Cerulean                         Elva                                    Oracle (weak)                                        Picked ADOL                                 Picked Mhar
Mharman                 Nasuada                                  Bulletproof                                                   N/A                                                     N/A
Whiteflame                Angela                                 Voodoo Lady                                   Picked Luna (failed)                    Picked Luna (failed)
Austin                          Oromis                               1shot motivator
ADOL                              Arya                                             Singer

Dead
Casey                           Murtagh                             Prideful Townie
WyIted                       Galbatorix                               2X Prober                                  Vanillaized Luna/Cop Inno
Earth                              Roran                                   Hammerer              
Luna                              Eragon                                     Arsonist                                             Primed WyIted                                N/A (Vanilla)

As I've said I've given up trying to figure out anything by theme, but maybe role....

So bulletproof prevents you from being nightkilled right?

So it would always be useful for a townie, but it would also be the ideal role to lie about to explain why you get night killed last.

On the other hand scum bulletproof would be a useless role if none of the town had the capacity to night kill. Lunatic had the capacity to night kill, but after he admitted to being vanillized it became unprovable.


I’m Angela. I am the Voodoo Lady. Two NPs in a row, I’ve targeted Luna with a 15-letter word cued up. If it had worked and Luna had posted the word (the idea being that I would prod him into saying it without using it myself), he would have had a 50% chance of being informed that I was town. Guess that doesn’t matter now.
This is apparently an unusual role and I think that is the true theme of this game.

Again I have come to a weak disjoint: I do not believe that Cerulean and Whiteflame are the scum team. Given the roles already claimed it would be just as easy for Cerulean to claim that Whiteflame is confirmed town (in that case).

If that combo is unlikely then the possible scum teams are:

Whiteflame Mharmen
Whiteflame Austin

Cerulean Mharmen
Cerulean Austin

Mharmen Austin

Is there any evidence that Austin/Oromis actually motivated anyone?

Is there any evidence that Mharmen/Elva actually did the fortune protection thing?
#25
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The town loses if we don't lynch scum this time.
Correct. 

So bulletproof prevents you from being nightkilled right?

So it would always be useful for a townie, but it would also be the ideal role to lie about to explain why you get night killed last.

On the other hand scum bulletproof would be a useless role if none of the town had the capacity to night kill. Lunatic had the capacity to night kill, but after he admitted to being vanillized it became unprovable.
Luna's flip confirmed his role. That being said, a scum BP seems unlikely just to counter that and would put town at an even greater disadvantage. If Mharman is BP, he's almost certainly town.

This is apparently an unusual role and I think that is the true theme of this game.
Unusual roles do seem common, but I'd hesitate to call it the "true theme of" the game. It's common, but that doesn't make it absolute, hence we're still debating the more common BP.

Again I have come to a weak disjoint: I do not believe that Cerulean and Whiteflame are the scum team.

Given the roles already claimed it would be just as easy for Cerulean to claim that Whiteflame is confirmed town (in that case).
Why? My goal could be to get Cerulean to fake a townread on me to direct attention elsewhere, which fits this scenario. Why are we necessarily not on a team?

Is there any evidence that Austin/Oromis actually motivated anyone?
Considering he Motivated the claimed BP, no. The only night action we're aware of is that scum RB'd me that night, and since I don't think Motivators give someone an extra shot of their role if they're already spent, I don't think that factors here.

Is there any evidence that Mharmen/Elva actually did the fortune protection thing?
Mharman claimed the BP role. He shouldn't have a night action. What fortune protection thing?
#26
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@whiteflame
@Cerulean
Again I have come to a weak disjoint: I do not believe that Cerulean and Whiteflame are the scum team.

Given the roles already claimed it would be just as easy for Cerulean to claim that Whiteflame is confirmed town (in that case).
Why? My goal could be to get Cerulean to fake a townread on me to direct attention elsewhere, which fits this scenario. Why are we necessarily not on a team?
Cerulean claiming that you hexed him and then it was revealed that you were town would be a fake townread which would direct attention elsewhere.

You might be a scum team, but if so you made a mistake by not using that strategy.

If I include mistakes and throws to be equally likely as sound strategy then truly nothing can be inferred and there is no way to exert influence over the outcome.


Is there any evidence that Mharmen/Elva actually did the fortune protection thing?
Mharman claimed the BP role. He shouldn't have a night action. What fortune protection thing?
Sorry, Cerulean/Elva.
#27
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Cerulean claiming that you hexed him and then it was revealed that you were town would be a fake townread which would direct attention elsewhere.
It’s not hexing (though I get why you’d say that since I’m the Voodoo Lady), though I guess your point is that Cerulean would have immediately said the word and claimed I was town, that there’s no point in delay. That’s fair enough I guess, though even if we were a team, I could see him wanting to put distance between us, which his decision to delay has.

Sorry, Cerulean/Elva.
Another passive role claim. His role will only activate if he’s NK’d.

#28
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@Cerulean
That’s fair enough I guess, though even if we were a team, I could see him wanting to put distance between us, which his decision to delay has.
Delay, what could possibly change given town is about to lose? There is nothing to delay for. If at any point he makes the claim that you were revealed to be town the disjoint becomes a joint: either you're both scum or you're both town.

If he is just delaying then it is more likely that you are both scum because the reason he gave for not saying the word won't become less valid the closer we get to the end of the day.

To me, the delay implies no distance.

It's up to Cerulean whether to risk saying the word or not, but delay without cause creates distrust (from me) not trust. I wouldn't blame him if he was town and took the risk because the odds aren't great without more evidence.
#29
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Delay, what could possibly change given town is about to lose? There is nothing to delay for.
That's... a weird way to frame that. Are you assuming we're going to mislynch? And much as I agree that a decision has to be made, I disagree that there's no reason for delay. The DP is still 72 hours, and especially if there is mistrust in my role, it makes nothing but sense to go back through previous DPs to get at least a somewhat clearer perception of me, particularly as town.

If at any point he makes the claim that you were revealed to be town the disjoint becomes a joint: either you're both scum or you're both town.
So it's a disjoint until he makes a decision because we are not on the same page about whether/how to proceed, but that changes if he does proceed. Now I get why you said it was weak.

If he is just delaying then it is more likely that you are both scum because the reason he gave for not saying the word won't become less valid the closer we get to the end of the day.
I don't get this. He perceives a risk of the game ending if he says the word. If, by the end of the DP, he decides to do nothing, then the decision to do nothing is anti-town. If he decides instead to VTL someone because he doesn't want to accept the risk, I don't see how that makes him or me scummy.

To me, the delay implies no distance.
I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "distance" because this seems to contradict your point about there being a disjoint between us because of the delay.

It's up to Cerulean whether to risk saying the word or not, but delay without cause creates distrust (from me) not trust. I wouldn't blame him if he was town and took the risk because the odds aren't great without more evidence.
So you're scumreading him for the delay and would townread him for saying the word and taking the risk. Am I reading that right?

#30
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To me, the delay implies no distance.
I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "distance" because this seems to contradict your point about there being a disjoint between us because of the delay.
You introduced "delay" and "distance" in #27.

My logic was not based on how soon or delayed Cerulean's potential endorsement of you was, but based on the fact that if you were both scum such an endorsement would certainly be the strongest strategy.

Within the scope of such an endorsement you seem to think that delaying creates "distance"  and renders the choice after the entanglement to be more town. I do not agree with that implication. Delay doesn't mean much IMO.

All I'm saying is that of the many possibilities this choice slightly limits them either way.