Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)

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Cerulean
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Killing a new player Night 1 would be rather fiendish...

I'm fine with derp clearing Skipper for today, but I don't want that to be an excuse to not participate. So I do want him to still be posting thoughts on the game throughout.
whiteflame
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@Skipper_Sr
The mafia's going to try to kill me now, aren't they?
You've given us pretty strong reason to believe you're town, but scum don't always kill a new player this early. Chances are you won't be the only person who is widely townread by the end of this DP, so it's mainly a matter of who scum thinks will be the most valuable by virtue of their likely role or how effectively they hunt for scum.

Since you are being townread at this point, it's best for you to provide what insight you can on player behaviors and claims as they roll in. I know you're new to this, but it is still worth your while to be engaged and see if you can find anything that you think is odd.

Mharman
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I'm having an early townread on Pie. I like his interaction with Casey, and his question to Earth. It feels like I can see his thought process, which I like.

I guess I'm liking Casey's claim, but I'm not gonna hardlock Casey as town just yet. Mafia were given fake claims after all. Normally this would be a claim too risky for scum, but if it's a fake claim, it may have emboldened her. I don't have any real evidence that this is the case, but it's worth noting.

The reason I buy it for now is that scumreading the claim would require me to think Earth set up the fake claim as bait (or just gave scum a really bad fake claim), and that Casey would fail to notice such a thing as scum... neither of which are great assumptions. Occam's razor is my hero. Plus, others have voiced support for the claim, with Whiteflame saying there may be a pattern. I have two theories as to what he may be alluding to (yall have already voiced one of them), and both of them work well with my character.
Mharman
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Not sure if I buy Skipper's alleged town noobslips just yet. On the surface, they look nice, but I kinda get the sense he's leaning a little too hard into being a noob. The thing is, I've seen noob town act extra nooby on purpose just out of fear of getting mislynched DP1 of their first game. I did it in my first game, Philosophers IV.

Null for now. Same goes for everyone else.
whiteflame
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Here's the breakdown of the claims and softclaims so far. That makes 5 people who have claimed to be from the first game (Tubba Blubba and General Guy are both from that game).

1. Mhar
2. Lunatic 
3. Pie
4. Casey - Tubba Blubba - Hated
5. Wylted - General Guy - ???
6. WF - Paper Mario (2000)
7. Barney
8. Skipper - Paper Mario (2000)
9. Cerulean - Paper Mario (2000)

I don't think it makes sense to hold this in reserve, so I'll note what may or may not be obvious: both Tubba Blubba and General Guy are bosses in this game. I can confirm that my character is also a boss. I'm actually buying the Hated claim more at this point, since it seems to place the fact that Tubba Blubba is a pushover as the reason for him to be hated among villains.
whiteflame
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@Mharman
I guess I'm liking Casey's claim, but I'm not gonna hardlock Casey as town just yet. Mafia were given fake claims after all. Normally this would be a claim too risky for scum, but if it's a fake claim, it may have emboldened her. I don't have any real evidence that this is the case, but it's worth noting.
I'm considering this as well. The fake claim would also have given scum insight into the theme split from the get-go, so I'm not automatically townreading either WyIted or Casey as a result. I still like the claim, partly for the fact that Casey claimed he didn't know that the role ceases at MYLO/LYLO. It's still possible that was part of the tactic, so it's not a strong read.

Casey_Risk
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I'll give more detailed reads later. For now, I'll say that I believe Skipper is probably noob town. Wylted is town too. 
Cerulean
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@Mharman
On the surface, they look nice, but I kinda get the sense he's leaning a little too hard into being a noob.
Mm. I assume you know more about Skipper as a person than I do, do you think they're the type to pull that sort of thing off on their first go? That question goes to anyone who can answer, really.



Casey can be Town for now. The instant claim and surrounding posts look reasonable enough, and Hated Townie seems like it would be an awkward fake claim for Earth to give. Fakeable, sure, but I definitely don't think that's worthy of a Day 1 vote.

Not fully convinced off of Mhar at the moment, I'll hold on to my vote there.
Skipper_Sr
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@whiteflame
Here's the breakdown of the claims and softclaims so far. That makes 5 people who have claimed to be from the first game (Tubba Blubba and General Guy are both from that game). 

1. Mhar
2. Lunatic 
3. Pie
4. Casey - Tubba Blubba - Hated
5. Wylted - General Guy - ???
6. WF - Paper Mario (2000)
7. Barney
8. Skipper - Paper Mario (2000)
9. Cerulean - Paper Mario (2000)

I don't think it makes sense to hold this in reserve, so I'll note what may or may not be obvious: both Tubba Blubba and General Guy are bosses in this game. I can confirm that my character is also a boss. I'm actually buying the Hated claim more at this point, since it seems to place the fact that Tubba Blubba is a pushover as the reason for him to be hated among villains.

My character is a boss as well
Mharman
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@whiteflame
I don't think it makes sense to hold this in reserve, so I'll note what may or may not be obvious: both Tubba Blubba and General Guy are bosses in this game
I was thinking antagonists, but bosses are a subset, so this makes sense. Mine is also a boss.
Mharman
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@Cerulean
So, what's with the reaction test?
Barney
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@whiteflame
Going to need to see some signs of life.

VTL Barney
...Brains! 🧟
Barney
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I am helping a friend get ready for court on Tuesday (I'm basically in charge of making his four or five exhibit books).  I will not be active this day phase.  Once the trial formally starts, I should have a decent amount of time for things like this game (not all the time, but enough).

I'm Sonic the Hedgehog, the lead villain of the Halo franchise.

Casey_Risk
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Okay, expanding a bit on my reads

Skipper - He could be faking being a clueless noob, I'll grant that. That being said, the whole exchange about Discord comes off as townie to me. I'd need to see some better evidence before I'd really scumread him.

Wylted - mostly just a gutread, but he's town. It's like I said in the last game, my reads are often wrong, except when it comes to Wylted. I'm always right about him, and he's town. There's no one particular thing he's done or said to make me feel this way, it's just my intuition, but I trust it 100%.

Whiteflame - One thing I've noticed about WF's scum game is that he'll try and act like he does as town, trying to move the game forward and helping the town out, except he never actually does that much or provides much genuine insight. It's part of why I scumread him early in the last game (and was right). But here, he was the one who picked up on the fact that we all appear to be bosses from Paper Mario. Now, it's definitely possible that he could have figured that out on his own based on the fakeclaim given by Earth, so I suppose I shouldn't read too much into it. For now, however, I do lean town on WF.

Mharman - not sure how to feel about him. He hasn't said too much yet, but comparing what he has said to last game, it already feels like he's doing less to try and get the game moving and figure stuff out. Might be reading too deep into it though. Null read for now.

Null read on everyone else I haven't mentioned. No one else has really given me much to work with yet.
Skipper_Sr
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I am a townie, even WyIted agrees. I only say this because those who have voiced otherwise may be mafia since they can tell I am not one of them, but they want us all to think I am mafia so we're tricked. They're not going to flat out say it, but they'll imply it 
Casey_Risk
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@Skipper_Sr
I am a townie, even WyIted agrees.
Buddy, you don't need to defend yourself so aggressively. No one's pointing their finger of suspicion at you yet. Except for me just now, because I find this sudden aggressiveness to be odd.
Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
Mharman - not sure how to feel about him. He hasn't said too much yet, but comparing what he has said to last game, it already feels like he's doing less to try and get the game moving and figure stuff out. Might be reading too deep into it though. Null read for now.
Keep in mind that last game was different in that no one was doing anything early on. If you remember what I said last game, I was annoyed by the fact that everyone else was doing what I've been enjoying lately... sitting back and observing. Which is why I got that party started... no need to do that now.
whiteflame
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@Barney
...Brains!
Won’t find those here I’m afraid.

I'm Sonic the Hedgehog, the lead villain of the Halo franchise.
Damn, no wonder he collects all those rings!

Unvote

Skipper_Sr
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@Casey_Risk
Buddy, you don't need to defend yourself so aggressively. No one's pointing their finger of suspicion at you yet. Except for me just now, because I find this sudden aggressiveness to be odd.
I don't think it was aggressive how I said it. I'm trying to confirm things so people don't get distracted by what I say, so it instead is helpful to the town side
Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
I'll say this: You do have a point in that the whole town has reached an impasse.

Do you wanna be the first to say something, or would you prefer it be me? I suppose I've observed enough.
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@Skipper_Sr
I don't think it was aggressive how I said it. I'm trying to confirm things so people don't get distracted by what I say, so it instead is helpful to the town side
You haven't confirmed anything, though. All you've done is just reiterate that Wylted townreads you. Okay. If you're really a townie though, your primary concern shouldn't be being potentially scumread by other players, especially at this early point in the game. It should be trying to scumhunt and read other players. Being overly concerned about being lynched is a scumtell.
Mharman
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I always feel like somebody's baiting meeeeeeee
And if say who I'll get mislynched
(Who's baiting?)
Casey_Risk
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@Mharman
I'll say this: You do have a point in that the whole town has reached an impasse.

Do you wanna be the first to say something, or would you prefer it be me? I suppose I've observed enough.
I mean, I think this conversation between Skipper and me that just started might lead us somewhere, so there's that. Feel free to weigh in on it, if you please.
whiteflame
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@Casey_Risk
Whiteflame - One thing I've noticed about WF's scum game is that he'll try and act like he does as town, trying to move the game forward and helping the town out, except he never actually does that much or provides much genuine insight. It's part of why I scumread him early in the last game (and was right). But here, he was the one who picked up on the fact that we all appear to be bosses from Paper Mario. Now, it's definitely possible that he could have figured that out on his own based on the fakeclaim given by Earth, so I suppose I shouldn't read too much into it. For now, however, I do lean town on WF.
Fair. Tbh, last game was particularly low energy for me for... well, a bunch of reasons. If I was coming off that game and going scum again, I'd definitely put more effort into it, and given that we know scum have a fake claim, taking the reins on some theme analysis wouldn't be off the table for me if I was, so I can understand the hesitancy.
whiteflame
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Anyway, while I'm open to discussing this more and going into whatever Mharman seems to be hinting at, I think I'm going to call it here and pick this back up tomorrow.
Skipper_Sr
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@Casey_Risk
You haven't confirmed anything, though. All you've done is just reiterate that Wylted townreads you. Okay. If you're really a townie though, your primary concern shouldn't be being potentially scumread by other players, especially at this early point in the game. It should be trying to scumhunt and read other players. Being overly concerned about being lynched is a scumtell.
I've also pointed out that there may be mafia members who are trying to keep ambiguity around me being a townie or not by implying they're not sure. It's less about me being lynched and more about my team wasting time 


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@Skipper_Sr
I've also pointed out that there may be mafia members who are trying to keep ambiguity around me being a townie or not by implying they're not sure. It's less about me being lynched and more about my team wasting time 
I mean, I guess I get what you're saying, but that's... also something you don't really need to point out. All of us here have at least a fair amount of experience with mafia (aside from you of course). We know how the game generally goes. Also, you're not a confirmed townie or anything, so yeah, it is reasonable to keep you in mind as a potential lynch. Do you disagree? If you scumread me or Mharman, just say so. No reason to keep quiet about it.
Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
I mean, I think this conversation between Skipper and me that just started might lead us somewhere, so there's that. Feel free to weigh in on it, if you please.

Sure. I'll give you town cred for calling Skipper out on that.

As for your case on him, some of it makes sense.

The fact that he said nothing in his defense, other than reiterate that Wylted townreads him. Also the fact that his remarks do seem aggressive, albeit passive aggressive. Although I suppose we've all been doing that. Again, a lotta respect to you for having the guts to break the impasse. I should take a page out of your book. I think I will in a moment.

The only point I don't agree with is that townies can never be afraid of being mislynched. To some degree, this is correct... scum tends to invest a little bit more into defending themselves from lynches. The big thing, however, is that I can think of a good reason a townie might want to invest a lot into avoiding a mislynch. Does it apply to Skipper? Idk. I do know that I'm not willing to give noobs passes for bad logic; I learned that lesson last game... again, shoutouts to Pie for making that case on Banana.

One thing you missed though: He talks a lot about others being vague, but then does it himself. I guess we all have, but I don't get the lack of self-awareness on his part.

All in all, you have a semi-decent case.

I won't lie, though. I'm more inclined to believe it because it looks like a post one would make while working connection with... Cerulean!

Lemme apply that page I took out of your book and have the balls to say: I think he's trying to bait an OMGUS from me.

I gotta give him props for the plan, too. I OMGUSed Pie in Villainous Villains, and he saw it. So why not start with some terrible logic ("Mharman is less active than I expect")?

If I give pushback, it's OMGUS. Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch. If I say nothing, he continues to sneak diss the whole way, implying his sus on me. He can afford to wait for someone else to accuse me, and knows someone from town will eventually try to "pick up what he's putting down," because he's conditioning town to take real nice close look at me. Then, when someone makes their case on me, he gets to parrot, maybe "add to it" a little.

And if he gets called out for it by someone else? He can fall back on it being a reaction test. If I don't believe because, he doesn't need to be so subtle about such a test, or because it all seems too convenient (both of which I am alleging), he can say my pushback is irrational and spin it all back on me saying that he didn't really think I was scum until I reacted this way- he was merely testing me.

And if town is little slow to accuse me for his parrot, he can send his teammate (who is being townread by a few people) to help imply there's a case on me. It's not his first choice, but if he has to do it he has to do it.

Admittedly, I am aware he can spin one of my points back on me. I've also been hesitant to accuse until now, so what gives? Well, I was hesitant because I know if I counter-accuse, he's got what he wants. In a way, I'm giving him just that- except for the fact that someone else from town is starting to take a look at some of these things- you're kinda my hero for being the ice breaker. I'm gonna trust you.

I agree there's a case on Skipper, but I think Cerulean is more sus.

VTL Cerulean

We'd all much rather get along than fight you
Me and Hailie dance to your songs, we like you
And you don't really wanna step inside no mic booth
Come on now, you know the white boy'll bite you
I'll hurt your pride, dawg, and you know I don't like to
But I will if I have to, with syllable after
Syllable I just slap you, killin' you faster
Than you poppin' pill after little pill of them tabs
Of that shit you on, but if you want it, you got it
You'd bump this shit too, if we ain't diss you on it
But if we lock horns, we can charge harder than Busta (Green Lantern!)
We bump heads with any motherfucker that wants to (yeah)
So what's the deal, where was all the tough talk?
When I walked up to you like, "Ja, what up, dawg?"
How come you didn't say you had a problem then?
When you was standin' there with all your men, we coulda solved this then

Skipper_Sr
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@Casey_Risk
I  agree it is reasonable to suspect me. I think me being so immediately open about my role is no longer a helpful tactic
Mharman
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Cerulean
I want to pressure Cerulean. His logic on me is basically just "Mharman was less active than usual, I'm kinda sus." Which he doubled down on by keeping his vote on me, but refused to accuse outright. 

1. It's the same terrible logic Banana had on Pie last game.
2. He has a plan behind that looks really good, even if I call it out
3. He doesn't need to be so subtle if this is a genuine reaction test.


Alr Cerulean, game on.