Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)

Author: Earth

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Mharman
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I still gotta give Cerulean a town read, for reasons I gave earlier. I'm gonna give Whiteflame a townread as well. His logic and points are sound, and it doesn't look like he's faking any contributions
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Even if I disagree with his points on me... his perspective isn't as crazy as Lunatic's
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The pool is Skipper, Pie, Wylted, and Barney. I'll be thinking on them for an hour or two. I wouldn't surprised if I was wrong on someone in my town pool- that's in the back of my mind... Im gonna focus on the scum pool first
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Mharman sure writes a lot, no one can deny. I'm still at work. I'll just say for now that Mharman townreading me and Luna is a good sign, though I still think he's probably our best option for a lynch today. 
ILikePie5
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Alright I’m here. Board meeting later this week so was busy with work all day. Catching up now 
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@Mharman
I have no teams I'm gonna theorize right now. I don't really know who to scumread.

My case on Cerulean was dogshit. There are small things about his behavior that bother me, but each and every one of them has a townie explanation. There's also one thing he did that's nagging on me that says he's town.
Why can’t you reveal it? I disagree with your connection between Skipper and Cerulean, but I see the other point that you made. It’s very subtle, but it sets the stage for future pressure.

I'm gonna read into him and Wylted. I thought he had a good point on Wylted, but then came Wylted's rebuttal, which is a bit better of a point imo.

If I find his push on Wylted is reasonable, I'm going to join.

If his push on Wylted is stupid, it nullifies that one townie point, and I'm back on him.

I'll let you know when I'm done reading and thinking.

As for bus theory, lol. I'm not gonna do that super risky shit as scum. Especially not DP1. This is kinda the same point I made to Lunatic: I don't care what you think of my play this game, or my play last game, or how it all might affect me. I'm not taking all the risks I'm taking right now if I am scum.
Couple of things. First, this is WIFOM. Second, you could have a partner who would do this. 
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@WyIted
I think you mentioned the insincerity behind your push. Where you responded and his vote remained. At first I thought, maybe you he just forgot to remove his vote or didn't care. So maybe it didn't indicate insincerity, but his interactions with me seem insincere. 

I'd definitely like to move past him with some sort of claim. It's possible he is insincere but an alternative theory is that he is trying really hard to scum hunt and when you are being high effort it can come across as insincere. So right now and I have not reread any part of the DP, but I am looking for signs that he is either high effort or signs that he really is insincere and it is not a misperception on my part. 
His behavior is unreadable imo. The claim will likely help us the most along with POE
Mharman
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Rereading again, just noticed I screwed up the wording of Q3 here

 Q1. You have a role that is not exactly one of mine, but it is similar enough to CC. What does this mean?
A: Mafia has probably has something that counters your role.

Q2. Mafia probably has something that counters your role. What does this mean?
A: If I'm scum I would see said role that counters your role.

Q3. I probably have a role that counters yours if I'm scum. I can obviously see it. What does this mean?
A: I wouldn't think anything that counters your role would be a safe fake claim, because I know my roles would be designed to counter something that I could be claiming, indicating there is a high risk of me being CCed.

And what does that mean? It means my claims are legit.
Lemme correct that:

Q3: Lunatic, I probably have a role that counters your if I’m scum. I can obviously see it. What does that mean?

A: it means that I wouldn’t think any role that one of my scum roles would counter would be a safe claim; this is because I know my scum roles are designed to counter stuff that is in the game. Therefore, I’d obviously know any claim my scum roles counters would be crazy, because I’d know there’d be a high chance of me being CCed.
Mharman
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@Lunatic
See the above correction
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@Barney
Waiting for Monday night, during my final push to prep for trial to pull this...
Knowing it's my most busy time, and once I'm into the evening tomorrow my schedule will open back up...

*slow clap*

That said, I give you credit for tagging me. That's appreciated since I would not have otherwise seen it. So sarcastic slow clap aside, thanks for not being a true bastard.
Well here’s a thought: maybe you should claim
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@ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
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VTL Mharman. 

This aggressiveness doesn't feel like his town aggressiveness, it just more like a "I dare you to fvck with me" type of macho vibe, it worries me because I think as town mharman is much more methodical and logical. My gut is telling me this mharman isn't town, so I am going to stick with my vote here. 
When was the last time he was scum? I’ll look later tonight
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
I’ve said this before, but just saying WIFOM means so little. 

The point about me having a partner is ok I guess, but Cerulean doesn’t strike me as that kind of player
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Whiteflame’s vote on Mharman right after Luna’s is very interesting 
Lunatic
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@Mharman
As for bus theory, lol. I'm not gonna do that super risky shit as scum. Especially not DP1. This is kinda the same point I made to Lunatic: I don't care what you think of my play this game, or my play last game, or how it all might affect me. I'm not taking all the risks I'm taking right now if I am scum.
Couple of things. First, this is WIFOM. Second, you could have a partner who would do this. 

This is what I was talking about when I said most people are just gonna straight out dismiss your arguments as WIFOM. The fact that I went above and beyond to address why the WIFOM specifically should be dismissed was a favor to you to provide a bit more insight, but yeah in general, WIFOM gets dismissed as what it is: WIFOM. And pie is 100% right to treat WIFOM this way, based on how often it is used by scum as a rebuttal. 
Mharman
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@Lunatic
So, what if someone other than me is arguing points about what I would or wouldn’t do as scum? Is that also pure dismissible WIFOM?

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@Mharman
Forget it. I’m done defending from myself from Lunatic’s very shaky psycholoanalysis and damned if I do, damned if I don’t reasoning about whether or not I’d acknowledge an OMGUS.

Whiteflame is on me and not budging as well for… reasons I guess, and Casey wanted my claim despite townreading me.
WF’s vote on you struck me as opportunistic, but he did say he was going to explain the post right before this one.

I could give endless pushback, and I thought about outright refusing to claim. The problem with that is this is the last day of the DP and I want town to move on and find scum.

I am Bowser. I got ahold of the Star Rod, and became damn near invincible. Town JOAT- Watcher, Doctor, Cop.
Ya, I don’t like the justification, but Bowser should be in the game. Earth hasn’t revealed anything about fake claims either yet. What links Bowser to a JOAT?

It’s why I was thinking antagonists in theme split as opposed to bosses earlier; it’s also the reason why I said there was interesting townie point Cerulean had in his favor- he spotted it and told me to be careful about slipping role information… I’m assuming he saw where I said “I can think of one reason town would try really hard to avoid a mislynch, dunno if it applies to Skipper” and correctly concluded I was one such townie. He could’ve kept that observation a secret as scum, but didn’t, probably to hint to a protective role that I may need saving, because he obviously didn’t know that I am a protective role.
I don’t understand this. How do link everything?
whiteflame
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@Mharman
I haven't seen any mod give fake character claim only at any point. I guess there's a first time for everything. Keep in mind how stupid it would be for me to claim what I've claimed as a PR if I'm scum. As I've explained to Lunatic, you basically have to conclude my claim is from Earth, at which point that's bastard, at which point its simpler to say Earth is trying something new here.
It certainly would not be a first for me. I've seen plenty of mods give scum partial fake claims rather than give them full claims.

I agree, your claim is ballsy if you're scum. I wouldn't call it stupid, necessarily. I've played games with scum partners who have made similar calls before and been rewarded for taking the risk. Suffice it to say that, while I wouldn't personally make this decision, you would hardly be the first person to do so as scum with limited information.

Anyway, any other people you are sussing, other than me?
I would have said it was WyIted not too long ago, but I'm wavering more on him atm. He still might be closest among my null reads to being scummy. I have too little information on Barney. I see that Pie's catching up as well, so maybe I'll have a stronger opinion one way or another on him by the time he does.
Lunatic
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@Mharman
Also I read your most recent responses. I am not really sure there is much "new" there to respond to that won't just end up with me cluttering the day phase. You seem to be repeating the same points, where if anything you just get more vitriolic and passionate, maybe more insulting about how crazy I am or how ludicrous my read is, but honestly I am not seeing a lot of good faith argumentation there that I think I would be better of served by taking hours of my time to respond to that line by line. I think your time probably would have been better spent trying to convince me of a better target, which I recommended before falling asleep, and it appears no real effort was made in that direction outside of tagging people to post. 
Earth
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VOTE COUNT

Wylted (1/5) - Cerulean
Cerulean (1/5) - Pie
Mharman (3/5) - Casey, Lunatic, Wylted


The day ends in roughly 15 hours (11/13 12:30 PM EST)
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
Mharmans scum. I am not going to say which, but I am counterclaiming one of his abilities as a full time ability. Seems incredibly OP to have a full time of what I am plus an investigative JOAT.
Ya there’s no way. Also note Skipper and Cerulean both implied they had some sort of power role. The CC is very incriminating. If Mharman had 1x, I could see it, but having 2 possible full time Doctor/Cop/Watcher is broken. I will hold off on voting until I’m done reading.
Lunatic
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@Mharman
So, what if someone other than me is arguing points about what I would or wouldn’t do as scum? Is that also pure dismissible WIFOM?
WIFOM works argumentatively to the extent that people are willing to believe it, but its really not worth arguing. 

If you lay a case out in WIFOM, its up to the eye of the ones voting to believe or dis-believe it. The skill and ability of the player also kind of goes with the WIFOM though. I am more likely to believe you are capable of high level wifom for example than a noob or someone who just doesn't do it often. I am using WIFOM to argue why I don't think casey would be scum fake claiming hated. 

There are plenty of WIFOM arguments I might buy based on the player and the context. You don't unfortunately get as much luxury in having WIFOM work for you based on the fact that you aren't a noob. If you are mafia for example and putting this tremendously high amount of effort into the game, you obviously are case in point for why I shouldn't buy wifom from you out of hand in the future. Hell, I suspected pie was scum in one game and gave him a "high effort pass" one time, despite not buying any of his WIFOM, and he won the game from it lol. 
Mharman
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WF’s vote on you struck me as opportunistic, but he did say he was going to explain the post right before this one.
I see some towny things in Whiteflame, personally.

Ya, I don’t like the justification, but Bowser should be in the game. Earth hasn’t revealed anything about fake claims either yet. What links Bowser to a JOAT?
Getting the Star Rod have Bowser a ton of new abilities, and became near invincible because of it. You are free to look up the plot of Paper Mario in the Super Mario Wiki. I think Casey linked it on page 2

I don’t understand this. How do link everything?
Can you be more specific about your confusion?
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@ILikePie5
Tag
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@Mharman
Holy fucking shit.

You do you realize that it’s completely plausible for Earth to give town a backup investigative and a backup protective role in this case, right? To have all that power on one player who can’t use abilities in one night would weaken town a lot, compared to a setup where all three abilities are split among town and can all be used on the same night.
One problem. If he wanted to do this, why not just give “Backup” as a role? You’re also forgetting that Ceru and Skipper implied PR. Let’s assume all 5 of us are town. Scum must be insanely broken. And I recall Earth not having that many PRs in a game.

Additionally, to read my claim as scummy, you’d have to believe that either Earth gave out a bastard fake claim, or that mafia already used their fake claim… which would require you to scumread Earth. Which would require you to ignore everything that made you give her a pass based on her claim.
Why can’t Bowser be your real claim as scum? He’s like the most famous villain. It could be a Bowser + Bowser Jr vs others
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@Lunatic
Pretty sure you just used some variation of a fake claim using information given from the mod. Also even if my role didn't CC you I would have been highly suspicious of you claiming that outright. You full claimed a JOAT and ALL of your abilities, which are super OP. Imagine if you are town, you have like most of the power role on you. And you just claimed? You had a couple of pressure votes on you, and sure maybe we could have pressed for more information, but you didn't think to start with just a character claim?
This is a good point. Why claim the fact that you can choose to be a full time version of any of those roles vs just saying you’re a 1x. 

You claimed your whole ASS town power role? Yeah even if I didn't CC you I would be pushing your lynch hella right now. I might have been able to push it without CC'ing you, but ultimately I don't wanna WIFOM with everyone to the point where it would be worth it. Assuming there is two scum here, 1 town power role is a good enough trade for 1 guaranteed scum. 

Lunatic
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To play devils advocate a little bit, I will say my role PM mentions Bowser. I didn't want to read too much into that because if the mod did give that as a fake claim, i'd be shooting myself in the foot by placing too much stock into that, but in the context of what mharman claimed and what I am, I can see the justification making great sense. It's also part of the reason why I am dismissing the WIFOM of "why I wouldn't claim this if it was scum" from mharman, because the phrasing of the role kind of makes sense for earth to think this would be a good fake claim for scum. 
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@whiteflame
I'm a little wary of the claim as well, though I'll note he is taking an incredibly ballsy tack with claiming a JOAT like this if he's scum. Not saying I buy it necessarily, but the fact that he claimed with three votes on him, over 24 hours left in the DP, and my statement that I would come back to explain my position so that we could have it out (I don't know why he thought I was intransigent after having cast this vote just a couple of hours ago) doesn't sit well with me. I think there's a world where Earth includes backup investigative/protective roles, but it's not the one I'd believe is most likely.

A couple of other things that stand out. He claimed Bowser, a character we would certainly expect to be in a game where everyone is claiming Paper Mario bosses, but one that also stands out from the claims made so far (and my own) as a boss who exists well outside of the Paper Mario games and as the head honcho in general. Not saying that's necessarily a theme split, but it is something to consider. 
What were your reasons for voting Mharman (before he claimed)
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
I can’t answer why backup isn’t a role. I will also state that you don’t know what the other town PRs are, or what scum has. 

Anyway, I know I’m not lying.

As for Bowser: 1. We are clearly all bosses from the Original Paper Mario. This has long been established. Earth has stated there is a theme split and that mafia has been given a fake claim. I’m willing to think that Earth gave them a fake claim because what they have as is not easily spun as town. Specifically, their characters… I’m thinking Mario and Peach are the scum characters. Could also be party members Mario can add to his team in Paper Mario
Mharman
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@Lunatic
To play devils advocate a little bit, I will say my role PM mentions Bowser. I didn't want to read too much into that because if the mod did give that as a fake claim, i'd be shooting myself in the foot by placing too much stock into that, but in the context of what mharman claimed and what I am, I can see the justification making great sense.
So you saw a reason it could work and didn’t consider it, until now…

Bro.