What harris needs to get to 270 electoral votes

Author: WyIted
Election
270
electoral college

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#1
WyIted
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As far as the swing states are concerned Trump has Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina in the bag. 

This puts Trump at 268 points. That's his minimum.

Kamala needs to win Michagin, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Kamala wins it's because she swept those 3 states. I just don't see it happening and Trump could potentially flip Virginia here making her path much harder, but these 3 states are what you need to look at on election night. 
#2
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@WyIted
We know nothing. Polls tell us little, they have been very wrong before and they are seen as tools to manipulate behavior. There are hundreds of thousands of potentially fraudulent ballots already printed and ready for 3AM drops.

We can't predict how bold or desperate the cheaters will be nor what absurdities judges will allow.
#3
Sidewalker
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@WyIted
No matter what happens, Trump will declare victory, and his loser followers will believe him.
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#4
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@Sidewalker
This is what will happen to those who do not agree he won when he takes office

https://youtu.be/MohJLPgutKQ?si=SamzEA__B-GjBL3z
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FLRW
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When will Trump be building the Moscow Trump Tower?     Oh, after he bankrupts the USA.
#6
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@WyIted
Trump has Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina in the bag. 
arizona is a tossup. the averages are being thrown off by low quality polls from right wing think tanks. most reuputable polls show it within like a point, maybe 2. and kamala is winning in some of them.

Nevada is also a tossup.no poll puts trump ahead by more than 1. well, well within the margin of error.

Georgia is leaning trump. but only by a point or 2. Still within the margin of error. 

North carolina is a tossup. The polls basically aternate of who is ahead by 1, harris or trump. 


Why would you think these states are in the bag? They are as close as it is possible to be in the polling. 
#7
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@WyIted
Videla helicopter rides.
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#8
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Why would you think these states are in the bag? They are as close as it is possible to be in the polling. 
By looking at early voting, as well as eliminating the most left wing and right wing polls and looking at the cross tabs. 

So looking at percent of each demographic and how often each demographic Wil turn out historically and also taking into account voter enthusiasm
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@WyIted
By looking at early voting, as well as eliminating the most left wing and right wing polls and looking at the cross tabs. 
most of the states have no polls that show trump up by more than 1. So that's bullshit.

So looking at percent of each demographic and how often each demographic Wil turn out historically and also taking into account voter enthusiasm
gotcha. So by making up whatever information you want to believe. 
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@WyIted
gotcha. So by making up whatever information you want to believe. 
This is what making up whatever information you want to believe looks like:


I know he[Trump] praised nazis.
#11
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@ADreamOfLiberty
This is what making up whatever information you want to believe looks like:
this is getting sad. I don't want to listen to you deny reality so you're just going to go off topic and whine about it in other threads?
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#12
WyIted
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@HistoryBuff
gotcha. So by making up whatever information you want to believe. 
So polls have cross tabs and that means you can often look at votes by demographics such as age range, sex and race. If 15% of the vote is generally black but a poll has sampled 1000 people and 20% are black for example, you can adjust the numbers that way to be more realistic. That's what pulling up the cross tabs means
#13
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@WyIted
If 15% of the vote is generally black but a poll has sampled 1000 people and 20% are black for example, you can adjust the numbers that way to be more realistic. That's what pulling up the cross tabs means
you know the pollsters already do that right? For example, if in a state 50% of voters are registered republicans and 50% are registered democrats, but their polling sample gets 60% democrats and 40% republicans, they will weight the republicans more to balance it out. It's a standard part of polling. 

But honestly, I think most pollsters are pumping trump up. quinnipiac had some polls in the last cycle that were WAY off. huge outlier underestimating trump support. and they turned out to be wrong. They took alot of heat for it and it hurt their ability to make money. So the pollsters are afraid that if they show what their polling is actually saying and they're wrong, they will get the same treatment. So every pollster is saying it's a tie so they can't be blamed. I think their polls are actually showing trump down significantly.

A new Des Moines Register poll (a gold standard pollster) shows Trump down heavily with women in Iowa. This means he is actually losing by 3 points in deep red Iowa.  This pollster is one of the most accurate in the country. If that trend extends to other states and other pollsters are missing it, trump would lose BIG. I think other pollsters are intentionally weighting their polls to avoid showing that so they can't be blamed if they're wrong. 
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#14
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@HistoryBuff
If Trump wins Iowa tomorrow are you going to finally get mad about bring so stupid as to fall for obvious propaganda?

Not just mad  at the liars but at yourself? Or are you just going to cope and make excuses for their evil?

#15
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@WyIted
If Trump wins Iowa tomorrow are you going to finally get mad about bring so stupid as to fall for obvious propaganda?
what are you even talking about? What propaganda? That pollster has correctly called basically every election within 2-3 points for like a decade. Including calling it for trump in past elections. But now that they say he will lose, it's propaganda?

Not just mad  at the liars but at yourself? Or are you just going to cope and make excuses for their evil?
you're not even making sense.
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I also think pollsters have other problems too. They are trying to use 2020 as their baseline. They are trying to weight their numbers to get them to look like 2020. But 2020 is before the republicans shot themselves in the foot by overturning roe v wade. Support among women has fallen because the that. So trying to weight your numbers to an election pre-roe is intentionally throwing off your polls. 

I think we could see this in the republican primary too. Nikki haley kept getting significant numbers of votes weeks and even months after dropping out. This shows a solid chunk of even republicans that want him gone. But pollsters aren't showing that. 
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#18
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what are you even talking about? What propaganda? That pollster has correctly called basically every election within 2-3 points for like a decade. Including calling it for trump in past elections. But now that they say he will lose, it's propaganda?
If the pollster is wrong than it is obvious propaganda, meant to discourage Trump voters from voting. Why fo you think democrats outperform Republicans in polls? The day before Reagan won 49 states they had Mondale favored to win
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@WyIted
If the pollster is wrong than it is obvious propaganda, meant to discourage Trump voters from voting.
you know that just sounds crazy right? Even if they are wrong, they're probably just wrong. They polled people. People answered a certain way. they reported on what people said. Why is that a conspiracy to keep people from voting? 

Why fo you think democrats outperform Republicans in polls?
lots of reasons. a big one is that democrats are more popular that republicans. Seriously, the republicans haven't won the popular vote is a long time. Another is that trump kind of broke modern polling. Him being so bat shit crazy makes polling alot harder. 

The day before Reagan won 49 states they had Mondale favored to win
ok, and? Polling is not an exact science even at the best of times. 
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#20
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ok, and? Polling is not an exact science even at the best of times.
I literally explained how I made it into an exact science and told you what states kamala would need in the op
#21
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@WyIted
I literally explained how I made it into an exact science
lol no you didn't. you describing what pollsters already do. And it very much is not an exact science. It relies on what voters did in previous elections and making assumptions that it will be the same this time. That is not an exact science. 

and told you what states kamala would need in the op
your OP said trump had a bunch of states in the bag. This is 100% not true. That's how this discussion started. 
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#22
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@HistoryBuff
your OP said trump had a bunch of states in the bag. This is 100% not true. That's how this discussion started. 
Yes his bottom is 268.

He wins the sun belt, Arizona and Nevada. That means harris has to run the table with the rust belt. 

That's not a bunch of reckless predictions. We know where California is going as we do Florida and Ohio. Some things are practically a given.

If Trump wins even a single rustbelt state he wins and PA is looking good for him but yes Arizona and Nevada are in the bag for him and you will look like an idiot tomorrow morning for saying Nevada and Arizona is a crazy prediction
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@WyIted
He wins the sun belt, Arizona and Nevada. That means harris has to run the table with the rust belt. 
polling says both of those states are toss ups. You are just assuming he will win based on nothing. 

We know where California is going as we do Florida and Ohio.
I'd say kamala winning florida is unlikely, but not impossible. There's alot of puerto ricans in florida and the trump campaign called them garbage....

you will look like an idiot tomorrow morning for saying Nevada and Arizona is a crazy prediction
I never said it was a crazy prediction. I said saying they're in the bag is stupid. There is no evidence for that. They are tossups. 
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#24
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I'd say kamala winning florida is unlikely, but not impossible. There's alot of puerto ricans in florida and the trump campaign called them garbage....
Puerto Ricans are not retarded like you are claiming and are actually thanking the comedian for pointing out the problems with waste management in their area. 

Why do you think Ricans are retarded enough to confuse a statement from a roast comedian as a policy proposal?

polling says both of those states are toss ups. You are just assuming he will win based on nothing. 

Why do you claim to be a history buff and still don't realize certain things about how corporate media works? How do you not recognize the power moves behind the scenes?

If the early vote is favoring trump in those areas, if the cross tabs show he is up with every demographic. 

Did you know that candidates on both sides refer to accurate polls done by professionals not the shit you see on TV?

You can see their moves and know what they mean. The day before the 2016 election Hillary canceled vendors for her celebration. Why? It's because the candidates use real polls.

Both candidates are acting like Nevada and Arizona are in the bag for trump and now we have trump doing rallies in Virginia and New Hampshire at the last minute and harris focusing entirely on Pennsylvania.  What do you think these moves mean?

#25
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@WyIted
Puerto Ricans are not retarded like you are claiming and are actually thanking the comedian for pointing out the problems with waste management in their area. 
lol sure. They heard their home called a ball of garbage and were like "yeah that's great". You're delusional if you think that is the case. 

Why do you think Ricans are retarded enough to confuse a statement from a roast comedian as a policy proposal?
a man speaking at a trump rally, from a teleprompter (which means the campaign saw it in advance) called their home garbage. I don't think they think it's a policy proposal. They saw it for what it is, a racist joke at their expense. That pisses people off. 

Both candidates are acting like Nevada and Arizona are in the bag for trump and now we have trump doing rallies in Virginia and New Hampshire at the last minute and harris focusing entirely on Pennsylvania.  What do you think these moves mean?
I don't even know what to respond to. Basically everything you said was false. No one is acting like those are in the bag. I mean maybe trump is, but he is delusional and his staff hide bad polls from him. Harris is not focusing entirely on Pennsylvania. 
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#26
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@HistoryBuff
How was my prediction 100% accurate if there weren't tells?

Give up on your hobby of history because it requires knowing how to see the chess moves and know what they mean. And if you can't see the chess moves in 2024 you sure as hell can't when looking at events from 250 years ago.