Classic Movies Mafia DP4

Author: Casey_Risk
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#31
Earth
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@Cerulean
You mentioned that WF would have to redirect Lunatic to Banana or me, but it's worth mentioning mafia HAD a manipulative JOAT who died, so it stands to reason mafia can't redirect now. However, mafia might have the ability to use an ability from the graveyard.
#32
WyIted
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Come on. I am staying up late to see the case on myself and you just stop posting. So disappointed.  
#33
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@Earth
Right. That redirect- or something else- would have needed to come from the grave on "Night 1" (the Night following Owen's death). They would have needed to have a role that could do that and figure out that Lunatic was not just a Cop, but a Vanilla Cop to get him to target Banana/You. And that doesn't seem likely at all.

#34
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@WyIted
I'm typing, give me a moment here.

#35
Cerulean
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WyIted. (Why is it an "i"? I was pronouncing your name as "Wilted" for so long...)

As I said yesterday, my initial POE there was WyIted, Lunatic, and Moozer. Then Moozer's claim happened, which drew a lot of attention and distracted me.

The "Easy" bullet points on WyIted are-
- He was hard defending the now-flipped Mafia.
- He was hard pushing the now-flipped Town.
- His role doesn't quite fit perfectly. If we were to have another Investigative, I would expect something Even-Night to balance out Lunatic's Odd-Night. But also, the discussion about him not seeing anything can easily be WIFOM.

Now, you might be saying, "Cerulean, a lot of people were pushing the now-flipped Town! One of your top Town was pushing Moozer! What makes WyIted the wolfy one?"

To this, I say audacity.

I'd like to think that I'm a reasonable judge of personality. And to me, WyIted absolutely seems like someone who will powerwolf through the game and give their buddy room to breathe. Kind of like how things went with Pie last game- he pushed the bad lynches, I stayed in the background (comparatively) and got townreads. Audacity was also part of the strategy that the team including WyIted used in Villainous Villains- a play that blatantly tailored the Night Kill's role and hoped we would fall for it. WyIted was the main driver on the push, along with WF, and that fits the archetype I suspect here.

The other issue I have is what I think is the major one- which is the mech misunderstanding.

Pretty much any scum team that doesn't have WF wants Lunatic dead as soon as possible so he can't get off any checks and can't keep defending WF. With Moozer's role, the only way to guarantee that Lunatic doesn't get docced is if he actually has the Doc. See Moozer's 128, which came hours before WyIted said Moozer should give Lunatic the Doc.

Other slight issue is that WyIted even suspects now that it's not possible for Moozer to actually be the Doctor Inventor. But the posts during that phase seemed to flip from "I am absolutely 100% sure that Moozer is scum" to trying to get Moozer to take a specific action with his Doc. To me, it looks like two perspectives that don't fit well together.

Phew. Okay. I think that's all. I'm not 100% opposed to a No Lynch today, but I want some answers before I realistically consider it.
#36
WyIted
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@Cerulean
I'd like to think that I'm a reasonable judge of personality. And to me, WyIted absolutely seems like someone who will powerwolf through the game and give their buddy room to breathe
This is true.

"I am absolutely 100% sure that Moozer is scum" to trying to get Moozer to take a specific action with his Doc. To me, it looks like two perspectives that don't fit well together.
Let me explain. Prior to the end of the dp. I was pretty sure moozer was scum. But I invited. I did so but wanted to keep my reasons to myself. The reason being is I thought on the off chance he is town I will catch scum killing lunatic to frame him or if he was scum than he would be the one personally taking the nk and I would see him in the act. 

I encouraged moozer to give doc to lunatic so I could see the NK. Earlier I also suggested that lunatic was lying and he was an everyday cop so we could bait the scum team to nK lunatic there as well. 

I will say this. I am willing to self vote if the alternative is that a mislynch of me loses us the Game at Lylo, but I will also be honest here and tell you my thoughts
#37
WyIted
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My gut is also starting to shift and not behaviorally but just listening to my gut than scum is whiteflame and bullish. 

Whiteflames response to me earlier seemed unnecessarily confrontational.

He didn't point out to others that me visiting the NK was suspicious. He pointed it out to me. Why would he try to convince me it is suspicious? It's not like I can do shit about it. I will say it seems out of character for him to be that aggressive as well. I had a hard town read on him yesterday but when you are as certain as I was that Moozer was scum than it gets you rethinking all of your previous thoughts and whiteflame felt off in that behavior. 
#38
WyIted
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This is the post I am referring to.

Why is he uncharacteristically  coming at me like this?


Maybe he had a bad day. Maybe I pissed him off recently and am unaware of it. However maybe he is scum. I know I have a part of me when I am on the scum team that just gets nastier, and it's hard to suppress
#39
Cerulean
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@WyIted
I encouraged moozer to give doc to lunatic so I could see the NK.
Okay, but couldn't you have done the same with someone like Banana instead? That would have forced wolves to go for either a guaranteed kill on a less active player with no role (which you could watch) or try to risk a kill on someone else and potentially collide with the doc.
#40
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@Cerulean
I don't have a good read on banana. I know it would be embarrassing if they are scum and win. I guess I got it in the back of my head there is a good chance they are scum and I wouldn't catch them doing the NK on scum.

I also had a plan once lunatic said he was a cop to try and bait the NK that direction and I may be a victim of just not liking to deviate from a plan, especially when my narcissistic side is really proud of that plan. 
#41
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Granted, you would be less likely to see the nightkill in that world, but there would also be a better chance of no nightkill entirely.
#42
WyIted
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I was trying to 100% catch scum and when I saw lunatic dead I got excited. I saw that before I checked my PM and then when I checked the PM and so nobody visit him, I was very disappointed. 

Bait set. They take the bait and I still miss. Imagine setting a mouse trap and seeing the cheese disappear and no dead rat in it's place. Very infuriating
#43
Cerulean
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@WyIted
Playing the "I did the suboptimal strategy because that's my personality" when that was the exact defense for the villager we just mislynched... Sigh.

One other issue I wanted to address- it looked like you were setting up Austin to be the next lynch regardless of what Moozer flipped- because you said both:
If you (Moozer) flip town than I have to question why he (Austin) knew the one in a billion chance to be true thing was true.
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Whonis moozers scum partner if it isn't you (Austin)?
Would like to know what happened to that today as well.
#44
WyIted
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@Cerulean
Playing the "I did the suboptimal strategy because that's my personality" when that was the exact defense for the villager we just mislynched... Sigh.
Wrong. 

Last time he was scum he made the exact same role claim and made the exact same mistake of forgetting to use his abilities.

It's like a one in a million chance he does the exact same thing in his next town game. That was why I wanted the lynch not because I thought he made a suboptimal play.

I also have the benefit of hindsight and seeing my play fail to suddenly start thinking my play was suboptimal.

Would like to know what happened to that today as well.
Sure  from my perspective it was so obvious that moozer was scum by using his scum meta that he was either scum and Austin was helping a scum buddy or there was a one in a million chance he was town and in order for somebody to town read him, they have to be a complete retard who got lucky or scum with inside information. 

It should be noted that Austin's chess Elo is around 1750. AUSTIN did claim his role insinuated moozer was innocent, but I have no clue what his role is so I was not basing my thinking on that. 
#45
Cerulean
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@AustinL0926
It should be noted that Austin's chess Elo is around 1750.
What am I to glean from this information...

But speaking of Austin- we do need a hard claim. You aren't getting away with not claiming just because you can't get lynched today.

#46
WyIted
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Well if Austin is either a retard or scum and his Elon is 1750 in chess that removes the option of being a retard now doesn't it?
#47
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Effort posting = town

VTL Wylted
#48
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@Cerulean
I can't read wylted.

- He was hard defending the now-flipped Mafia.
- He was hard pushing the now-flipped Town.
Good call out, objectively wrong play should never be given a free ticket.

"I didn't see anyone visit last night's NK" is also a gambit up Wylted's wheelhouse.
#49
Bullish
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Lunatic's death confirms whiteflame. I'm role confirmed, and my role is basically always town. I town read AustinL0926  and banana.

That leaves Wylted and Earth, if Cerulean isn't mega bussing.
#50
WyIted
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Overturning a lynch is something that happens more often for the Mafia team in my experience.

Also nobody has explained why my logic for moozer was wrong. 

It should be noted that bullish simultaneously town read moozer while hammering him while I scum read him and pursued his lynch. It is not town behavior to lynch a town read. 
#51
whiteflame
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@WyIted
My gut is also starting to shift and not behaviorally but just listening to my gut than scum is whiteflame and bullish. 

Whiteflames response to me earlier seemed unnecessarily confrontational.

He didn't point out to others that me visiting the NK was suspicious. He pointed it out to me. Why would he try to convince me it is suspicious? It's not like I can do shit about it. I will say it seems out of character for him to be that aggressive as well. I had a hard town read on him yesterday but when you are as certain as I was that Moozer was scum than it gets you rethinking all of your previous thoughts and whiteflame felt off in that behavior. 
This is some baffling reasoning. To start, you initiate this post with a sus on me and Bullish in the first sentence, and then don't mention Bullish again for several posts afterward and for quite a while after that you barely mention him.

And your reason for sussing me is just BS. You're basically just calling me out for responding to you directly rather than pointing it out to others. Yep, you caught me: I guess I shouldn't have tagged you in the post where I was actively quoting you to address your points. I don't really get the aggression point, either. I haven't even VTL'd you yet.

Maybe he had a bad day. Maybe I pissed him off recently and am unaware of it. However maybe he is scum. I know I have a part of me when I am on the scum team that just gets nastier, and it's hard to suppress
So... let me get this straight. I, as scum, eliminated the town member who had the most reason to townread me due to his own result. I then get sussed by you in a DP where no one can VTL me anyway, and my response to that is to get nasty because...? I'd say it's more than a little weird to call the post in question "nasty" as well. Pointing out the obvious in response to you and telling you my own theory was bunk doesn't seem particularly rude or nasty.

For the record, we're good and I'm good.

#52
Bullish
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There was no other viable wagon and I always prefer lynch over no lynch. I've been consistent about that for a decade.
#53
WyIted
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@Bullish
Me too. Except I will lynch null reads not town reads. 
#54
AustinL0926
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Yep, figured that was Cerulean's role after he claimed his movie.

Wylted was a good choice. Scummy as hell after that last DP.
#55
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
WyIted, you need to fullclaim. Was planning on pushing for it this DP anyway (still not sure why I was alone in that last DP), so this just gives us more focus
Not a problem. I am the watcher and was obviously trying to direct the NK. I watched lunatic on both NPs. 

The scum team must have a ninja or something and I saw nothing either NP
That's awfully convenient and I doubt this. It also doesn't make sense from a balancing perspective for scum to have a ninja while you're watcher, considering that 8v3 is already heavily scumsided and Owen's role was overpowered (redirectors/deflectors/bus drivers in combo with investigative town roles are criminally strong).


#56
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
Couldn't you have laid out your reasoning so we could discuss it like a team before making this decision?

I have had that role a few times and it's very tempting to use it especially if you have a strong town read but it's selfish. 

I think Austin and or bullish is scum and I could easily lie and say I saw one visit lunatic and town would definitely pursue that lynch seeing as how using the gladiator role will likely result in my lynch, but I didn't do it. I was honest and said I saw nobody visit Lunatic
"I could lie at the cost of getting myself instantly lynched next DP, therefore you shouldn't lynch me at all", is not the convincing reasoning you think it is lol.

#57
AustinL0926
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@Cerulean
Your reasoning makes sense, hits a lot of shared opinions with me. I will say that if I was scum I would have just quietly let Moozer die, I could have just pointed out the suspiciousness of the claim and followed the crowd. I think it's pretty clear I made a concerted effort to defend him when I absolutely didn't need to because I truly believed in his innocence (and got shouted down for it).
#58
AustinL0926
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@Cerulean
But speaking of Austin- we do need a hard claim. You aren't getting away with not claiming just because you can't get lynched today.
Claims are meant to inform reads. Reads are meant to inform lynches. With no lynches in play, I see no utility in claiming when it won't change the outcome of the day, but might change the outcome of the night (for the worse).

#59
AustinL0926
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Wylted's push on whiteflame and Bullish just looks like flailing scum. Doesn't make any sense lol and doesn't follow from his reads.
#60
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@Bullish
There was no other viable wagon and I always prefer lynch over no lynch. I've been consistent about that for a decade.
+1. I would've voted to lynch Moozer too if it was coming down to the end of the day.