Time traveler/Rants Mafia DP1

Author: WyIted
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#271
Casey_Risk
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@whiteflame
 I understand that there's a difference between reaching LYLO and MYLO, but the difference between the two scenarios Barney describes is actually in what he omits from the first one: that we would likely VTNL at 4v2 (MYLO) and bring it to LYLO anyway unless we had good reason to lynch at that point. So there could well be a VTNL regardless of whether we do it during this DP or a later one.
Fair enough. Given that I don't have any particularly strong scum reads on anyone yet, and the DP is going to come to an end today,

VTNL
#272
Discipulus_Didicit
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Okay we went from one VTNL vote to five VTNL votes within a space of 20 minutes. Potentially something to note.

That puts us at VTNL-1, just as a heads up. Next VTNL ends the DP. I am okay with that so won't unvote but I want to point that out to avoid someone doing it accidentally.
#273
Barney
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
@JoeBob
@Casey_Risk
The DP ends in ~4 hours.

VNTL is currently winning, which happens automatically anyways (still preferable for anything to be by design instead of by accident).

If there's any lynch you all want to push, the hour is late, but it can be done.


#274
whiteflame
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Yeah, I'm noting it as well. While I don't see much benefit for scum in joining a VTNL wagon, it was an awfully fast transition.
#275
Barney
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@AustinL0926
@Owen_T
Please see above.

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#276
WyIted
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A little over 2 hours remain
#277
JoeBob
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I’m fine with a VTNL.
#278
AustinL0926
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It's optimal to lynch here. I suspect that scum were one of the people being wagoned before the VTNL. backreading now
#279
Discipulus_Didicit
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@AustinL0926
It's optimal to lynch here
I am willing to hear this argument, lay it out for us.
#280
AustinL0926
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@Discipulus_Didicit
From a mathematical point of view, then no lynching would be optimal if we assume that the odds of hitting scum are purely dictated by random chance. But a D1 lynch is the SINGLE GREATEST source of information that town has to work off of D2. Regardless of who we hit, analyzing how the dead player was treated by the living, who was eager to go for the wagon and who wasn't, and why that wagon gained traction over the others, all of that gives a strong basis for analysis in future days.

There's also the fact that there might be a third-party - Wylted has been known to do that and a 7-2-1 split is very viable, in which case it actually is mathematically optimal to lynch today.
#281
AustinL0926
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I was gonna vote Casey but that research on Barney's phrasing of "I win with town" was really towny ngl.

#282
AustinL0926
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VTL Joebob

This probably isn't happening but it's the best choice at the moment. everyone else feels towny.
#283
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@AustinL0926
I suspect that scum were one of the people being wagoned before the VTNL.
Who was being wagoned? Barney, Pie, and Joe each had one vote on them the last I saw, but none of them looked like they were being seriously considered as lynches except Barney (who probably isn't scum).
#284
Discipulus_Didicit
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@AustinL0926
I think the math in post 264 checks out but the fact that there is a hated and an even number of players does fuzz it up so I don't think you are dumb or scum for saying what you are saying.
#285
whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
I think if you want the lynch on JoeBob, you're going to need to explain your reasoning in more detail.
#286
ILikePie5
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@Savant
Can you explain your vote on Owen a bit more? I don't feel super strongly about him, but he's at least a better option than policy lynching Barney.
It was to get him to answer my question, which he still hasn’t.
#287
JoeBob
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@AustinL0926
VTL Joebob

This probably isn't happening but it's the best choice at the moment. everyone else feels towny.
white flames right
explanation pls
#288
ILikePie5
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So we have 3 minutes
#289
ILikePie5
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Let me do the math on VTNL.

DP1: 8–2

DP2: 7-2

DP3: 5-2

DP4: 3-2 is LYLO

We should 100% not be VTNL here, but it’s too late to even choose.
#290
whiteflame
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@ILikePie5
Yep. Going to end in a NL at this rate, but here we are.
#291
ILikePie5
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DP1: 8-2
DP2: 6-2
DP3: 4-2

Actually, both options town gets one lynch opportunity and one forced lynch on Barney. But the difference is that LYLO we have more odds. Unless it’s 7-2-1, but as I’m typing this time expired

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#292
WyIted
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Dp us over.  Go ahead and put in your actions. Will give vote Count when I am home