Ace Attorney Mafia DP1

Something is clearly not adding up here. You have to realize that

Yeah I highly doubt there’s a tp 

And to be honest, if I am looking at from a “who wants to blend in” perspective, I’m going to vote Savant

I can at least understand Austin’s play based on his claimed role.

I don’t understand how a magistrate would just throw their role away unless they want to blend in. Savant is known for tunneling, and it shocked me he would just out that role the second he got it given the power over a lynch that it gets him

Also, going within Austin’s group of three seems logical, but I was questioning it, and Lunatic was questioning it even more I think. Now I get why he wanted to look elsewhere toward me and earth. But Savant stayed within the ring of three… under my new line of logic, it would be because straying outside of what town is doing, even in the slightest, may be too much of a risk for him

And to be honest, the justification on his character is still a little awkward after thinking more… it sure isn’t as concrete as Austin’s imo

And I also just trust Wylted a lot.

For death

Main event starting. Cya later

Austin is scum or third-party lyncher and will claim day cop shortly. All he said earlier was "How would you feel if I said there's one scum in you, Wylted, and Savant?" and he refused to specify his role. This is to give himself plausible deniability later. Because claiming day cop day 1 and saying you found scum will make people suspect you of being TP.

Savant (3/5): Lunatic, Wylted, Mharman 

Lunatic (1/5): Savant

I think I have that right. Let me know if there are any mistakes. 

If he was really day cop, he would have said so to lynch scum. Instead he's going to jump from claim to claim in the hopes of having an out.

I believe Luna unvoted.

I think Austin being scum is the best explanation because TP doesn't makes sense with his claimed character. Even if he's third party, lynching him confirms me.

To some extent yes. If you know how dreamer works, there's a compelling reason to claim it.

That... doesn't really make any sense. It feels like you're shading non-alignment indicative things and trying to find the easiest way out of this poe.

Austin admits to lying. Somehow we should take his word that his lying is for the good of the town without even a full claim.

VTL Austin. If he's town, lynch me tomorrow.

I'm in POE. You claim to know I'm scum. I'm not, so I know I can safely go 1f1 against you.

Are you 100% sure I'm scum? Say right now.

You're right, he did. 

Savant (2/5): Wylted, Mharman 

Austin (1/5): Savant 

I'm not 100% sure you're scum, but I am willing to 1v1 you here.

*100% sure you're scum mechanically

There are 4 possibilities:

1. Austin is town, I am scum

2. Austin is scum, I am town

3. Austin is TP, I am town

4. Austin is scum, I am scum, and he's busing me.

If (3) is the case, then lynching me first means you waste two lynches. However, if you lynch Austin first, you waste only one lynch maximum.

Smh….

Listing possibilities without probabilities, is completely nonsensical. What point are you trying to make here?

Full claim right now. We're about to lynch you anyway, and if there's a chance we are both town I don't want us both dying.

Y'all are not about to lynch me lol.

It's not nonsensical, because I'm comparing worst-case scenarios.

Austin is willing to 1f1 someone he's not 100% sure is scum. Sounds more like a TP lyncher move than a town move. Maybe the not 100% thing is because he's scum and wants plausible deniability later.

Again, worst-case scenarios don't matter without probabilities. What motivation do I have to draw attention to myself like this early on?

Alright, took a while, but long post incoming. 

Mharman - Glad you're sticking around. Slight town. The defensiveness when Luna sussed him didn't really sway me one direction or another, but his "final thoughts" comes off as one of the more cogent read sets presented so far. I don't think he gave a lot of analysis regarding why he felt JoeBob was scummy, but it was one of the few attempts by someone outside of Luna and Savant to separate and analyze the two based on their behaviors. Also, and maybe this is just WIFOM, but I don't think he would have publicly announced that he was stepping out of the game only to reverse himself if he was scum. 

Owen_T - Null. His decision to sheep Savant through much of the DP only makes me believe that he's very likely not on a scum team with Savant, but tells me little about him. His sudden turn on Savant over the last couple of pages is different, but since his reasoning so far has been... interesting... I can't really say whether he based his change of heart on anything substantial, though he does seem aware that Savant's flip could implicate him.

JoeBob - Null. Not much to say on JoeBob since a lot of his posting has focused on clarification and giving brief thoughts on various interactions and posts. He recently posted a set of reads that is his biggest contribution so far, where he proclaimed that he knows nothing about the theme, points to the obvious argument between Luna and Savant (I agree that it's exceedingly unlikely both are scum), and then gives a set of reads that just seem open beyond a townread on Austin and WyIted. Beyond just showing that he's seen much of what's going on, there's just not much here to discuss.

AustinL0926 and WyIted - I'm putting these two together to cover the CC. This could have resulted from one of them having asked Casey about their character. I know when we did the Mahabharata game, I asked about a major character anticipating that at least some of the five major brothers weren't in the game. It's certainly possible that either of them would have done that, but I have more trouble believing that either of them would outright CC the other given the result, and I especially don't think that Austin would then argue that he still thought WyIted was town before it was cleared up.

For WyIted, there's not much further to go on this. I get that he's willing to take risks, but I don't think he'd do so in this way. The whole situation screamed "I misread my PM." The Restless Spirit claim is interesting given that it was Casey's fake claim last game, but given how it was brought up, WyIted remains a town lean.

Austin's a lot trickier. His softclaim and steadfast refusal to clarify his role is still the weirdest thing in this game. I can't see the way he approached it as scummy, but I really can't understand why he's still keeping his role from us as town. I want to just straight up trust him because all those interactions with WyIted seemed as far away from scum as anyone in this game, but something is going on. Maybe Luna's right and this is a TP Lyncher situation. I'm not sure why he'd pick three targets in that case instead of just claiming Day Cop, or why he'd be this cagey about it. It's also strange that his character and WyIted's are so closely related (they're sisters) yet somehow would come from distinct alignments. At this point, I believe he's either fake claiming to cover for a TP role (Lyncher would explain why he didn't pursue WyIted) or he really did receive some insights on certain players in the game, though I don't believe it's through some Day Dreamer role.

Earth - Null. Earth has given some insights into Savant's claim that show that he's very familiar with the Ace Attorney games, and his contributions have recently been focused on Savant's justification and role. He seems to still be struggling to pick between Luna and Savant since he said he still wants Luna's claim, but since he hasn't pushed for it beyond saying that, I can't say how much this matters to him.

Lunatic and Savant - I don't think I can really discuss one without the other at this point. Notwithstanding Austin's softclaim, which remains a factor at this point, suffice it to say that I'm leaning slight town on both of you behaviorally. Savant has been confounding me since shortly after Austin presented that softclaim, mainly because he just bought into it wholesale only to out his whole claim under limited pressure and then argue that Luna was the obvious scum. Savant has a habit of latching onto strong beliefs about what's going on in the game, sometimes based on brand new information that it's clear he's still in the process of considering (e.g. Luna's theory about Austin being a TP). I'd almost consider it desperation if there were more votes on him, but it's rarely seemed like he was decided on how to get out from under suspicion. If anything, he's continually acknowledged that his role is sus despite it being confirmable (and in a game full of lawyers, it would be surprising if there wasn't a Magistrate). His indecision and uncertainty make me slighty townread him.

As for Luna, I think the RVS was just a drawn out red herring. At the very least, it didn't seem like a serious attempt to get WyIted lynched since he wasn't doing much to recruit votes. If it was a scum attempt to get a mislynch, it was a pretty poor one and not what I'd expect from Luna. I'm not sure whether town Luna would suggest a TP to explain what's going on with Austin, but if he was scum, I would have expected him to bring this up sooner when there was more questioning of Austin's claim. Similarly, I would have expected scum Luna would discard the opportunity to mislynch Savant by introducing it at this stage. The timing just seems wrong for Luna to be acting as scum.

Given that we don't have long left in the DP, I can see good reason to push on Austin to get this sorted out, since his softclaim has done a lot to affect the DP and getting clarity might be necessary to decide a lynch at this stage. I'd still prefer he just claim, particularly if it would prevent a mislynch.

I think you're much more likely to be scum than random chance suggests, especially since everyone else has significantly towntold. How exactly does me 1v1ing you make me suspicious, especially as you've expressed a strong desire to start it?

WIFOM. Maybe you are TP lyncher or want us to mislynch 2-3 people and consider the risk worth it.

If anyone is about to get lynched, it's you Savant.

Misuse of the term wifom is like one of the my biggest pet peeves in mafia lol. Wifom is meant to be a way to suggest that nothing is absolute, not to replace critical thinking about probabilities. With this sort of logic, lynching a scum should give zero towncred because it could just be wifom.

I don't see why drawing attention to yourself early on is indicative of towncred. It's in scum's interest to push town players.