So earlier I asked y'all to think about alternative scum team theories. I hope y'all did so, because I want to hear yours and get thoughts on mine. I'm done thinking about mine. I have four alternative theories that I don't currently believe, but am thinking about. But first I want to talk more about the main theory, or the one I currently believe:
Main Theory: Savant-Whiteflame:
I've said it earlier, but I don't buy Whiteflame's claim. The justification makes no sense. I know Lunatic is experimenting more this game and that in the past he has said my type of analysis here is a bad idea, but I just don't see how he would put a cop in this game. Him experimenting means trying new ideas, not revisiting old ones that have failed him in the past. Even after his claim, he was still being weirdly secretive, which Disc rightfully called him out on.
As for Savant, Disc made the insinuation of a link between them earlier, and it's looking very likely. Savant has constantly been defending Whiteflame despite how scummy he is. And again at the start of the game, he made no contributions, only rebuttals to what others were saying. It doesn't just read like a fake contribution, it reads like an easy way to springboard into accusations of others; chiefly, Pie. I still don't like his defense either. In a role madness game, saying "I can be confirmed if I'm not roleblocked" is just asking for a roleblock. I think a townie would be more aware of this fact. I think it's a move to buy more time.
Alternative Theory #1: Pie-Disc:
Earlier when I was typing out some random thoughts I had, I mentioned that I was surprised the rest of town jumped off my train so quickly. Again, I'm thrilled to not be a mislynch target, but part of me thinks it was way too easy to get them off my back. Specifically, Pie (who started the train on me) and Disc (who said he was ready to lynch me). That is the birthplace of this theory.
Starting with Pie, getting me online and pointing out my inactivity is an easy way to get town cred. Earlier I said that I know Pie, and he would let me fall inactive if he were scum, because it makes his job easier. However, so is gaining the free town cred of getting me online. The thing that really bothers me however, is his claim hunting. While I said earlier that it might have more merit than I gave it credit for, I'm still unsure. While Whiteflame's claim is quite scummy imo, in a world where he is town, Pie's behavior looks weird. Earlier he said claim hunting has no drawback whatsoever, and I'm not convinced. A mafia team can definitely still make decent fake claims if all they have to state is their type of character, and it doesn't really hurt their effort to find the strongest PRs in town either. Furthermore it provides the mafia with something to do, that doesn't really help town (again, mafia fake claims and all). Another thing that rubs me the wrong way is that he seems way too cooperative with others, and follows with what their doing, even mirroring their sentiments. It's probably just Pie being a deal maker to keep the game going and get the information he wants, but it doesn't rub me the right way. Wylted gives a list of people in his town bloc, Pie goes after everyone else. Barney starts working on claims, Pie's there to help. Wylted suggests getting a claim from me after Pie notices my inactivity, Pie goes for it. Recently, he and Disc have been on the same wavelength the whole way.
Which leads me to Disc. I've never seen someone say they were so ready to lynch someone and then back off almost immediately. He agrees with Pie on pretty much everything, which is a little unsettling, but not impossible for town. It's not much, but his connection to Pie is very strong.
Alternative Theory #2: Pie-Wylted:
For Pie, everything in this alternative theory remains the same. The difference is that Wylted is the possible teammate. Onto him.
Wylted has been erratic and hard to read all game, but I am getting a grip on what he's doing. At the start of the game, he all but claimed Grand Warden, only to play it all off like a joke. This reads like he's looking for reactions, and possibly, as Disc noted earlier, baiting someone into a counter claim. He may have doing this to look for townies, which is fine and all, if he didn't hint it being potentially investigative. In a hypothetical world where Savant-Whiteflame looks unlikely, this could also be an attempt to find the cop for NK targeting. Alternatively, he may have been looking to set up his own fake cop claim for later in the game if he wasn't CC'd, assuming there is no real cop and mafia was told by Lunatic that there isn't a cop (which I've seen Lunatic do before). As I said earlier, he worked well with Pie on a lot, establishing something of a link. Recently he's said he scumreads Pie, but that doesn't automatically mean he does. Wylted can change his mind at any second, sure, but he can also "change his mind" at any second. Besides, I've seen Pie and a teammate hard bus each other before, and this could be the beginning of a setup for it. While it was with RM last time, Wylted is the type of guy I can see working with Pie to do it again.
Alternative Theory #3: Casey-420:
I've been putting a lot of faith into 420 being town, but even he is not exempt from reexamination. As I said earlier, he has hit a point where one has to question how genuine his noobslips are. I gave an anecdote about me doing the same thing in my first game as a defense. While I do stand by it, a world where I am wrong on it is the hypothetical I fear the most. Since then, he still hasn't given me any of his reads, or tried to do anything.
If he's scum, the most likely teammate would be Casey. While I've found myself agreeing with a lot of what Casey has said, I find it weird to have an anecdote where his grandma feigned ignorance to snooker a game from him, and then to turn around and say "but I don't think that's what 420's doing." Everywhere else, he still gives me town vibes, but I have no idea what he sees in 420 that would make him disregard that previous experience.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Those are my alternative theories. All in all, these were more of a thought experiment and a way to make sure we're not missing anything, mostly so I can feel comfortable about finalizing a decision. For this reason, I want to y'all to tell me what you think about the alternative theories, and if you've had anything that's been poking at you in the back of your mind (at least what you're comfortable saying in-thread).
I will look a bit more into these alternatives before the DP ends, but for now, I'm going to stick with the Savant-Whiteflame idea. As I said earlier, it feels awkward and maybe wrong, but I still can't find a good reason why it actually is wrong. All the alternatives are here in case someone actually finds a good reason for me to be wrong.
Because of the risk reward of it all that I mentioned in an earlier post, I'm still going with Whiteflame over Savant. My vote isn't final here, but since our time is running low, I will place one on him to maybe get something going.
VTL Whiteflame
