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@Earth
Is your role confirmable?
Breath of the Wild Mafia DP1
Posts
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Total:
547
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@Savant
I only survive another day if I am killed at night. So if you lynch me it "confirms" me, sure, but I will also be dead.
Just to double-check: your role doesn't work if you're lynched?
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@Best.Korea
So at least 6 confirmable roles so far.This is good, I guess, but all those roles need to be confirmed by dp3.We can afford 2 mislynches, so if scum is among the non-confirmable roles, it basically means only 3 players are left with non-confirmable role.I know two scum players can claim that they have confirmed each other, which is what we must look out for.Now we just need to hear from Earth about his character.
Remember that role confirmation doesn't necessarily mean affiliation confirmation - in some cases (with Lunatic's role) it probably does, but we can't always be sure of that.
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@Lunatic
Alright im caught up. You know what? I'll go ahead and full claim, I don't really see any reason not to, except for I guess if I wanted to use wagonomics to see how people voted and reacted, but honestly any analysis garnered from that is more or less WIFOM anyway.I am King Roham, the ruler of Hyrule. He's the old man you meet in the beginning of the game. Turns out you find out later on that he is King Roham (kind of a spoiler for me I guess since I haven't got to that part where that is apparently revealed, but it's been a year since I started the game and have only played it a few times casually since picking it up, so it's my fault for not finishing it earlier I guess).My role is "King" (Ironically a role I've wanted to use myself for a while), I can unanimously decide the day's lynch at any point in the game. Like I said earlier I was planning on using this day phase one anyways, since I usually die pretty early as town (last game was an exception).I don't have a ton of reads at the moment, other than I am town reading BK who seems to be putting in a great deal of effort compared to their usual play. I am getting a good feeling from BK overall. Not sure who I will unanimously lynch yet, but I am in no rush. I will use the role at some point before EOD.
Wagonomics, EOD... Mafiauniverse has gotten to you already :)
I honestly think that role is kinda negative utility (in the sense that it denies us the opportunity to analyze voting patterns and such), but it will confirm you at the very least and I can't imagine Moozer giving it as a scum role. I don't see the harm in using it ASAP, but I would prefer if a majority of living players agreed to it first.
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@Savant
I only survive another day if I am killed at night. So if you lynch me it "confirms" me, sure, but I will also be dead.
So your role is essentially:
If you get night killed, you can survive until the end of the next DP?
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@AustinL0926
It depends on what scum was given, but in most games I have played, scum had non-confirmable fake roles.
At first, I thought scum is among 3 players who are not one of the 6 main characters.
But 2 out of 3 of those players have claimed an easily confirmable role, with lunatic being obvious town when he uses his role.
Basically, only Savant out of those 3 has non-confirmable role.
This makes me think 1 scum is among those 6 main characters.
The only other option is that you are scum, but given your role description, that seems unlikely.
Reads (taking into account theme and mechanics):
Town:
Lunatic - role is undeniably confirmable (no mysterious night action shenanigans), and it's pretty much guaranteed to be town-aligned, as otherwise it would essentially bring LYLO a day early. Just to ensure Luna isn't fakeclaim covering a similar role that requires X votes or X% of votes to lynch, we should ensure that there are zero votes on the player we plan to lynch.
Lean town:
BK- If he keeps it up, Pie might start letting him back into his games. Some pretty legitimate effort at progressing the game through thematic/mechanical analysis that I don't see any ulterior motives behind it.
Slight town:
Casey - Behaviorally slight town lean, acting pretty casual without a lot of worry for how they look (usually I see newbscum be either very fluffy or very lurky). They also claimed their PGO role 5 minutes after I mentioned what a SOP role was - and while it's possible they got help from a scumbuddy during that time, the quick response and early claim seems more likely to come from earnest town.
Savant - Thematically out of the six. His behavior in general feels towny in the sense of being uninformed and going along with what's happening in thread. I also think his post pointing out an apparent contradiction from me demonstrates attention to detail that I generally don't see from scum (since it's much harder for scum to put effort into scumhunting).
WF - I usually townread him regardless of alignment early on anyway. So far his posts give me a town vibe behind them, especially that interaction with Savant.
Null:
Joebob - Hasn't posted much, what he has posted has been pretty mid. Basically coasting for now. I'd like to hear his reads.
Barney - I tend to prematurely scumread Barney because he fluffs a lot, so I'll refrain this time. None of his posts so far have really seemed alignment indicative.
Slight scum:
Earth - Pretty inactive, but his post about thematic analysis being "cheap" made me a bit uncomfortable. It's one thing to say it's shouldn't be relied on too much, but dismissing it out of some sense of fair play feels like a cop-out to avoid explaining why he doesn't want to do it.
To be clear,
The game is divided on 6 main characters
And 3 (austin, lunatic, savant) who are not main characters.
Lunatic is pretty much confirmed town by the end of this dp.
Austin is, by his role description, most likely town, even tho I am curious about his role.
Now, I dont think scum was given 2 fake claims. They were likely only given 1.
So only 1 out of 6 main characters could be scum.
That leaves Savant as other scum.
I know this logic has its flaws, but I find it hard to believe that scum was given 2 fake claims or that scum had courage to fake claim to be two out of those 6, or that 1 scum was given fake claim of one out of 6 while the other also dared to fake claim one out of 6.
Maybe I am overthinking this, and yeah, I agree that we should let Savant play to dp2, and its up to lunatic to decide, but we are going to have to lynch someone this dp, as I dont think we can have no-lynch because lunatic needs to confirm his role this dp.
I still need to hear from Earth about if his role is confirmable, but so far the only non-confirmale roles are granny and bleeder.
My role is not confirmable. I am Revali.
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@Lunatic
Can you explain in more detail how your role works and if it's Xshot/infinite?
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@AustinL0926
You said that your role is negative utility.
Do you have any problem with claiming your role now, since I dont think scum will target you regardless?
Since its a negative utility role, it would help town to know what it is in advance, so if what you are saying is true, do you have any reason not to claim role?
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@Earth
Okay, so 6 confirmable roles and 3 non-confirmable in total.
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@Best.Korea
Do you have any problem with claiming your role now, since I dont think scum will target you regardless?Since its a negative utility role, it would help town to know what it is in advance, so if what you are saying is true, do you have any reason not to claim role?
There's a reason for me not to claim. It'll become apparent after N1.
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@AustinL0926
There's a reason for me not to claim. It'll become apparent after N1
Ok. Then I guess we have all we need for dp1.
Unless someone thinks we should search for any more claims/soft claims, I think we can all put in our final thoughts before lunatic decides who will be lynched.
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@Lunatic
@Best.Korea
Will post reads in a bit. Give me some time to catch up and look back at the day phase.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Best.Korea
@AustinL0926
Looks like Earth and I have been accused? Anyway, the lynch is up to Luna. Here are my behavioral reads at the moment, from towniest to scummiest:
Lunatic - Lean town - Claims his role is confirmable today. I don't see Moozer giving this role to scum, but it's possible.
JoeBob - Lean town - Mostly vibes. JoeBob hasn't posted as much as others, but his question about my role doesn't seem like the type of thing scum would be concerned with. He could be coasting on his town cred from theme at the moment, and we know that one of the six claims is likely scum, but his behavior so far isn't the play I'd expect from him as scum.
Austin - Null - Said his role is confirmable but also that it's not really in his interest to confirm.
Whiteflame - Null - I town read him at first, but he asked a few role questions that I saw him ask when we were both scum. He's good enough that I probably can't rely on behavioral reads for him anyway.
Barney - Null - Some fluffposting, but that's how he usually plays. Says his role is confirmable, but he needs cooperation for that.
Earth - Null - Not confirmable, posting a bit more than I see him do usually. But none of this is really evidence of him being scum.
Casey_Risk - Slight scum - Claimed a nonconfirmable role that avoids visits from investigative roles. Then basically disappeared from the conversation altogether. Hence one of the main people I'd suspect of having a fake claim. If Luna or WF had behaved this way, they would be our top lynch right now, and I don't think CR should get a pass just because they are a new player. They could easily be getting advice from a more experienced scum player.
Best.Korea - Slight scum - Has been pushing hard on this theme analysis to clear anyone who has claimed one of the main six characters. Now that we know scum has likely claimed one of the six (BK admits this outright), BK is probably the main suspect for having the strong fake claim. He says his role is confirmable, but I'd want to know how and why before I give him town cred for that.
Dashboard
Player Claim Description Role NP1 NP2 NP3
Savant Purah (fake ID for senior discount) Bleeder n/a
Lunatic Roham (the patriarchy) King DP1() n/a
Best.Korea Mipha (dolphin girl/ghost) Confirmable
Joebob Link (hero) Confirmable
Whiteflame Daruk (rock guy/ghost) semi-confirmable
Regarding the 6, even if scum were not given fake claims, if either of them knows the game or just researched, they could have spotted enough other popular characters which the host was likely to use so slid in (which is part of why I rearranged everyone on the dashboard to be sorted by their claims as a function of time).
After reading up on the characters a bit, first I am surprised at how many of them are dead.
I'm also a little sus of Casey_Risk, due to Urbosa being a female pirate, and apparently Ganondorf is (or was) king and god of female pirates (also, female pirates are a race of people in these games)... I'd be far more sus, were they not the first to claim.
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@Savant
BK is probably the main suspect for having the strong fake claim
My role is obvious town. Basically, at any point in game, as soon as I would claim it, it would be confirmed as town. Still, I am not going to claim it unless I am a lynch.
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@Best.Korea
Maybe. We'll see how Luna feels.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
Just realized something. Couldn't we vote for whoever Luna tells us to, and then he gets to keep his power for later? Still puts the onus on him to prove his role tmrw.
If he insists on choosing who we lynch today anyway, I'd rather he keep his power to be able to use later.
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@Savant
Just realized something. Couldn't we vote for whoever Luna tells us to, and then he gets to keep his power for later? Still puts the onus on him to prove his role tmrw.
I mean, we could... but I don't see the point. The utility of Luna's role is in confirming his affiliation, nothing more - in terms of actual gameplay value, it doesn't give town anything we can't do ourselves.
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@AustinL0926
It could help in late game if we get down to 2 scum vs 2 town, but I'll admit it would be very unlikely for him to live that long at this point.
Or 1 scum vs 1 town actually
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@AustinL0926
Basically coasting for now. I'd like to hear his reads.
ok gimme a sec
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@Best.Korea
To be clear,The game is divided on 6 main charactersAnd 3 (austin, lunatic, savant) who are not main characters.Lunatic is pretty much confirmed town by the end of this dp.Austin is, by his role description, most likely town, even tho I am curious about his role.Now, I dont think scum was given 2 fake claims. They were likely only given 1.So only 1 out of 6 main characters could be scum.That leaves Savant as other scum.I know this logic has its flaws, but I find it hard to believe that scum was given 2 fake claims or that scum had courage to fake claim to be two out of those 6, or that 1 scum was given fake claim of one out of 6 while the other also dared to fake claim one out of 6.Maybe I am overthinking this, and yeah, I agree that we should let Savant play to dp2, and its up to lunatic to decide, but we are going to have to lynch someone this dp, as I dont think we can have no-lynch because lunatic needs to confirm his role this dp.I still need to hear from Earth about if his role is confirmable, but so far the only non-confirmale roles are granny and bleeder.
This post feels genuine, but at the same time I'm somewhat uncomfortable with this logic - you're basically banking everything on the assumption of a simple themesplit and scum having just enough fakeclaims to blend in, but no more.
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@Savant
It could help in late game if we get down to 2 scum vs 2 town, but I'll admit it would be very unlikely for him to live that long at this point.
I'm pretty sure town just gets endgamed in that situation. I'm going to ask Moozer about that right now though, because that would be enormously overpowered.
Savant to me is scum read because his role is a BIT too similar to mine, very similar.
Best Korea is null cuz this is my first game with him.
Earth is null cuz he hasn’t posted much.
Everyone else is null to me
not the best reads but it’s something