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@Best.Korea
I just want to know if you will be able to confirm yourself by dp3
I'll get confirmed by then. If not, feel free to lynch me.
Breath of the Wild Mafia DP1
Posts
Read-only
Total:
547
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@Barney
Okay, if Austin and you are telling the truth about being so confirmable, then this game is pretty much solved. Its merely the question in which order to lynch the 4 targets, not that it matters much, and this is even without all the possible info we might get in dp2.
Casey is most likely town. If he was scum his partner would have told him to speak to avoid suspicion, but that clearly isn’t the case here. We can deal with me and Savant tomorrow, since he hasn’t been past DP1. Which leads us on who to lynch now.
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@Best.Korea
I doubt the game is actually "solved" this early. Behavior is going to matter, and if you don't learn to do behavioral reads, you can easily be manipulated by scum who pretend to know more about behavior than you do.
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@JoeBob
If he was scum his partner would have told him to speak to avoid suspicion
I find it more unbelievable that he would be this silent as town. Right now Casey being silent has led us to discuss other avenues. He might think his best bet is to stay quiet so we can't push him more. His posting nothing is extremely anti-town, and I don't see how it makes him less scummy at all.
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@Savant
Surprises are always possible, but maybe not in this case. We will see I guess.
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@JoeBob
Who do you want to lynch, if not casey?
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@Best.Korea
Earth or Casey, preferably Earth. Casey is new, and he maybe forgot about it. Earth awknologed us wanting him to full claim. and went to bed anyways. Only until after he woke up did he claim. Maybe he had to think of something to fake claim with.
Dashboard
Player Claim Description Role NP1 NP2 NP3
Savant Purah (fake ID for senior discount) Bleeder n/a
Lunatic Roham (the patriarchy) King DP1() n/a
I also don't think this game is solved. Scum can fake some of the means of confirmation, and they can even have roles which allow role confirmation separate from faction.
Why are you considering lynching the uncc'd investigation role?
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@JoeBob
I don't think Earth is the way to go today. He's our only claimed investigative role with no CCs.
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@Earth
Why are you considering lynching the uncc'd investigation role?
well bk DID say other than Casey.
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@AustinL0926
the more I think about it the less it makes sense to lynch Earth, but im gonna keep it at the back of my mind. Until then, im down lynching Casey.
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@Earth
Do you have anything substantive to contribute - at the very least, who do you want to lynch today? Popping in to state the obvious is not super helpful for us.
Anyway I guess people are dead set on not seriously considering whiteflame as scum, which is frustrating to say the least. This isn't over by any means, but I'm willing to take it to tomorrow.
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@Casey_Risk
Focus is shifting toward lynching you. While your defenses are limited, you should get the opportunity to speak up about this...
So, who shall we ritualistically sacrifice to the Tri-Force today?
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@AustinL0926
I think it's a good angle to explore... Just there's not much to do with it DP1.
Then there's him as a high value player (him, Lunatic, and recently you), which further makes attempting to lynch him today a fruitless endeavor.
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@Barney
Damn. I'll admit I have been quiet, but that's mostly because I don't have a whole lot of experience here. I'm at work right now (on my lunch break) but I'm going to try and get caught up on the conversation here. When does this DP end?
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@Casey_Risk
15 ish hours
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@JoeBob
Hey, that’s my job!
Very well. I am going ask for some levity here on account of being a novice at this. As I said, it's been a long time since I've played any form of mafia, and I've never played it on a forum like this before. I'm just not used to there being so much discussion so early into a game to be perfectly honest.
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@JoeBob
Other than Casey? Casey is claiming PGO. How in the world is PGO an investigative role? I won't vote for Casey. I rather vote for JoeBob or some other protective role who isn't named WF.
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@Moozer325
oops
Just going to include some details not yet added:
Dashboard
Player Claim Description Role NP1 NP2 NP3
Savant Purah (fake ID for senior discount) Bleeder n/a
Lunatic Roham (the patriarchy) King DP1() n/a
That leaves two roles that are yet to be claimed. I still really don't love the lynch on Casey, chiefly for the reason that I still don't believe Moozer would hand out 2 or 3 of the 4 Champions to town and give the fourth to scum as a fake claim. I'd sooner believe that Barney was scum, since Zelda could conceivably be fake claim offered to scum and he hasn't full-claimed yet.
Since it's been discussed at various points over this DP, I would not consider the Earth lynch. The combination of him being the sole claimed un-CC'd investigative role (Barney or Austin could be another, but the Cop specifically is not a likely role offered as a fake claim to scum) and the fact that he's a 2X shot, which mirrors BK's 2X shot, is such a weirdly specific number of shots and I just don't believe that either Moozer would give Earth a fake role claim that mirrors a town claim so well. Either BK and Earth are scum, or neither are, and I don't see it as likely at all.
Luna's going to be confirmed town, and I've already made the case that JoeBob is likely town. I simply don't buy that he's scum after that CC and I don't have good enough reason to disbelieve his role claim.
That leaves four: Barney, Savant, Austin and me. My read on Barney based partially on his character claim (Zelda is still an MC, even if I can see the possibility that she might have been given as a fake claim) and behavior so far is that he's pretty townie, so I would put him as lowest priority among my PoE. Austin is next, given that he's claimed a confirmable role. I've had my differences with him this DP, but I can understand giving him an opportunity to confirm himself (though in case I don't survive the NP, note that his role confirmation doesn't necessarily confirm his affiliation). So, yes, I'm still narrowing this down to Savant even if I leave my distrust of his claims and discount the CC.
So, yes, my pick is still Savant, whether we're talking PoE or suspicion based on his role and JoeBob's CC. If we're still not considering him, then Casey is, at minimum, the one we can lose with the least impact to town.
As for this push to lynch me, much as Austin seems to have it out for me, it's worth thinking through both how this logic works and what to prioritize. I'll put it this way:
You'd have to start with the assumption that scum was given fake character claims. Assuming they were, if you're sussing me, then at minimum, you're at least sussing one of the other three Champions. No one should be reasonably considering a lynch on Earth and BK, so it's between Chris and me. If that's what you want, even though I'm opposed for the above stated reasons, fine: lynch Chris this DP, and if Chris flips scum, I'm the obvious next pick. If Chris flips town, then we revisit this next DP and people can make their case for why they think Moozer would have given scum just one of the four Champions as a fake claim while giving the other three to town. Give me the opportunity to use my BG just in case it can be useful because, at minimum, we know the Granny isn't helping us.
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@whiteflame
At least ping me...
behavior so far is that he's pretty townie
It's almost the end of the day phase, but Barney is the only one you give a behavioral read on out of all the people you mention. Is he acting particularly townie, or is there some other reason you seem to have ditched behavioral reads almost entirely?
So, yes, my pick is still Savant
Seems like you've been breadcrumbing this a bit without saying it outright. I don't have a problem with moving this argument to the next day phase, since there's been little town support for lynching either of us, but I will note that I have disagreed with a good chunk of your analysis up to this point if it wasn't already obvious from our back-and-forth earlier. If I'm on the table for a lynch, then I'll say right now that you should be as well, since I don't think Austin's read was unjustified. He outed me as scum in a previous game, he outed Pie as scum in a previous game, and now he suspects you. I suspect we'll get to this more in dp2, but it's worth mentioning.
even if I leave my distrust of his claims and discount the CC
We've already established that it's a pseudo-CC, not a CC. I don't see a reason to equate them. You've given your reasoning for why you think the claims are very similar as opposed to kind of similar, since we agree that similar roles can and have existed in the same game before. There's a method to your madness there, but you're also not the one assigning roles. Moozer is, with maybe some input from Pie. I see no strong reason to assume that his reasoning for role assignment would be the same as yours.
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@Savant
Considering there was next to nothing new here aside from my just summarizing my thoughts on how PoE aligns with my previously expressed views, I didn't think it would help to ping you since we'd be revisiting the same points, but fine, let's do this.
It's almost the end of the day phase, but Barney is the only one you give a behavioral read on out of all the people you mention. Is he acting particularly townie, or is there some other reason you seem to have ditched behavioral reads almost entirely?
So... I guess you're just ignoring the bases for my other reads? I've said before that behavior matters, but I think the role and character claims tell a stronger story. That's the basis for my PoE. If you don't want to respond to that and instead keep on focusing on behavior, I guess that's your prerogative.
Seems like you've been breadcrumbing this a bit without saying it outright. I don't have a problem with moving this argument to the next day phase, since there's been little town support for lynching either of us, but I will note that I have disagreed with a good chunk of your analysis up to this point if it wasn't already obvious from our back-and-forth earlier. If I'm on the table for a lynch, then I'll say right now that you should be as well, since I don't think Austin's read was unjustified. He outed me as scum in a previous game, he outed Pie as scum in a previous game, and now he suspects you. I suspect we'll get to this more in dp2, but it's worth mentioning.
...Breadcrumbing? I've stated outright several times that you're my pick for the lynch this DP. Several other people have said you're not under consideration, but I've made my position clear for a long time now. But thanks for confirming that any conversation over this is just rehashing previous points. I don't mind being considered for a lynch, but I'd argue that my role at least has a potential benefit for town, and thus there's a reason for me to stay alive at least one DP to use it. Even if you believe Austin, the notion that I'm the best option for a lynch this DP doesn't hold up with my claim, your claim, and Chris's claim.
We've already established that it's a pseudo-CC, not a CC. I don't see a reason to equate them. You've given your reasoning for why you think the claims are very similar as opposed to kind of similar, since we agree that similar roles can and have existed in the same game before. There's a method to your madness there, but you're also not the one assigning roles. Moozer is, with maybe some input from Pie. I see no strong reason to assume that his reasoning for role assignment would be the same as yours.
I'd say it's almost as close to a CC as you can get without claiming the exact same role. The only difference is that your role is slightly weaker - there's no "kind of" involved here. I've given that reasoning already and explained how other roles you've suggested are similarly "pseudo-CC's" from the LotR game aren't nearly as similar. It has nothing to do with how I, personally, would assign roles and everything to do with his demonstrated track record. I'm not going to revisit those points here because I seem to be the only one interested in this lynch this DP. I'm not expecting to dramatically shift the direction of the lynch at this point, but I am going to make my view clear.
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@whiteflame
I don't know if I said something to offend you, but it wasn't my intent. I didn't mean for things to get super hostile, so I'll respond to a few general points and leave it at that.
So... I guess you're just ignoring the bases for my other reads?
I'm not ignoring that, I'm saying I would expect you to analyze behavior on everyone in addition to just mentioning their role claim and where it fits in the theme.
I've stated outright several times that you're my pick for the lynch this DP.
I must have missed that. Not an accusation, but I'll look back to see where you said this. I thought I'd read pretty carefully.
I've given that reasoning already and explained how other roles you've suggested are similarly "pseudo-CC's" from the LotR game aren't nearly as similar.
I'm not saying your logic is bad, I'm saying I won't automatically assume it's the same logic Moozer uses.
I'm not going to revisit those points here because I seem to be the only one interested in this lynch this DP. I'm not expecting to dramatically shift the direction of the lynch at this point, but I am going to make my view clear.
Agreed. I'd rather leave things on amicable terms.
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@Barney
Something like that, lol