These posts will likely be my last for the day sober.
May check back in at like 9pm est if I'm not drunk by that time. Expect responses tmrw though
May check back in at like 9pm est if I'm not drunk by that time. Expect responses tmrw though
The Heroes of Olympus Mafia DP2
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Total:
302
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@Vader
You let Ragnar go without a warning, yes you are sussing me. Why are you letting Ragnar off the hook but seem to put pressure on me for making the same mistake?
I didn’t let him off the hook. I asked him why he did it. He told me shortly thereafter. I have another reason for not sussing him over that, though I’ll also note that that would be my sole basis for sussing him, whereas for you it is not.
BK was my top scum read for his behavior analysis being wrong and his view of the game being different than when I've seen him play as town from 1-2 games I played.
I don’t recall seeing comparison to previous games in DP1 despite all your choices to sus him. Mind pointing back to that analysis? As for the rest of this, you’re sussing him based chiefly on his claiming an unconformable role. I’m not going to lynch him for that.
It also means that I am essentially useless in the next NP's, which hence I deem to be SoP claim.
The choice to announce that was interesting. I still don’t see an explanation for why your result had to be front-loaded. Aside from you and some very new players, I’ve almost never seen a Cop claim outright at the beginning of a DP just to out an innocent result, and I’ve never seen a veteran player do that when there was no pressure on them or the person they targeted. Maybe that’s just differences in mafia philosophy, but you seem like a major outlier.
The question is would you find it more scummy that I didn't claim til DP3-4 and said I'm a 1x and used it NP1, or would you rather me out it after I used the role?
I would have found it less scummy if you’d done that, though if I did want to full claim and out my result as you did, my instinct would have been to just claim the Cop role without the 1X use. I’d have bought that you made that choice to make yourself the most valuable target for the NK.
It is still a softclaim.
Yep, so soft it could have been entirely ignored or dismissed. I wasn’t expecting you to be obvious, but this doesn’t prove you were the.Cop.
I'm not addressing your theme analysis because I don't know the theme nor do I care to look up the theme. Respectfully I got a lot of better shit to do than look up this theme and try to see if your analysis makes sense.
So essentially “whiteflame has good theme analysis, but I have no interest in engaging with it.” Great, then it was a fluff response that only engaged with what you thought I was, and you already said multiple times that you thought I was town.
Anyway I am not gonna respond to this absolute horrendous notion of the only claimed 1x shot when Pie has literally had 1x in all of his games in the past. This is just digging to try to find anything
And hey, rounding it out with a complete dismissal of the point without recognizing what I’m saying. It’s not the existence of a 1X shot in any of Pie’s games that has me sussing your claim, it’s the existence of a 1X shot alongside absolutely no other X-shot claims. I can’t find a game of Pie’s that plays like that.
A. Why do you townread him? You are saying that you townread him? Ok. Give me a reason why you townread him. What parts of his behavior in this DP lean as town?
Doesn’t seem like you’ve engaged with my reads from last DP, but fine. I think his logic falls in line with mine, much of which was posted before I could post similar ideas. His unwillingness to hop on the lynch last DP and his calling out people who were on it and holding them to it (myself included). He also hasn’t gotten defensive since you sussed him, has engaged pretty consistently, and his behavior matches what I saw in previous games where he was town.
B. Why do you townread BK? You give a few reasons as to why we should town read him but please explain more
I’ve actually given several already. Nothing’s changed since DP1 with regards to him, so it’s your choice if you want to engage with my prior read on him. I have nothing to add.
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@whiteflame
Jason Grace (one of the seven)Leo Valdez (one of the seven)Percy Jackson (one of the seven)Annabeth Chase (one of the seven)Gleeson Hedge (main character and mentor to the seven)
I am one of these.
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@Earth
Thanks for confirming. And do you have either an investigator role or a number of shots with your role (e.g. 1X Cop like Vader has claimed)?
Let me just repeat that we cant afford not to lynch GP this dp.
So we are at 5 - 2 - 1 most likely.
And if we lynch someone else, and it happens to be a mislynch, then we are at 3 - 2 - 1.
At that point, if GP joins scum, then we lose in dp3.
Let us be reminded that we dont know if he is really a prophet, and we dont know if he actually wins if game ends on dp5, because it is possible he just wants us to think that and told something entirely different to pie.
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@whiteflame
Now, you said "confirming". Do you mind elaborating on that?
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@Earth
Now, you said "confirming". Do you mind elaborating on that?
For now, I'm just going to say I had a strong suspicion that you were in that group of 5 based on theme analysis and PoE. Would appreciate a response to my follow-up.
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@whiteflame
My role is nightly, not x shot.
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@Earth
And non-informational?
I think you might be giving mafia too much information.
I am kinda exhausted and unable to think clearly rn, just finished a chess game almost 4 hours long. I skimmed through the thread, looks like whiteflame and Vader going at it. Going to reread that later.
Anyway, I had a thought regarding the mass softclaim:
-It'd be nice to know whether someone has a "common" role or not. Obviously this is kinda subjective, but I noticed that when Pie puts some exotic roles, he goes all in with them, e.g. in the Governors Mafia where only 2 out of the 11 roles could be considered "standard".
-For the sake of disclosure, I would say that my role is on the uncommon side, but not that much so.
Idk maybe that's not such a good idea. Probably I'm not really in the condition to be posting rn. Ill catch up later.
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@Earth
Alright, then let me explain why I'm seeking it.
At the moment, we have two claimed informational roles on top of one flip that confirms we had a third. That's a lot already, particularly as the Emissary and Cop would function in similar respects (giving the person who has them a pretty solid indication of who is town and who is scum). It is still, however, remotely possible. Four informational roles, on the other hand, would be completely unbelievable, and would more solidly suggest that one of the claimed informational roles is scum.
Now, I say all that already having good reason to sus Vader on multiple levels, including his claim, so while it is not necessary for me to come to a decision on him, I do think it would be more persuasive for town as a whole.
All that being said, if you decide not to provide this information, I would understand that decision. You are not the only player left in the game who has not claimed (or softclaimed) a role, and I don't intend to go any deeper with this if you choose not to do so.
I sus Vader also but I do think we have enough I formation for this dp.
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@AustinL0926
-It'd be nice to know whether someone has a "common" role or not. Obviously this is kinda subjective, but I noticed that when Pie puts some exotic roles, he goes all in with them, e.g. in the Governors Mafia where only 2 out of the 11 roles could be considered "standard".
Honestly, that sounds like a reasonable idea. You beat me to some of my thoughts about his claim. It is a bit of mod psych, but I also don't think it narrows down specifics about individual roles, so I'm fine providing it:
My role is uncommon.
My role is uncommon, but still standard.
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@Best.Korea
You do realize If I don't lynch at least 1 scum then the game will be over on dp4...and I lose...
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@Greyparrot
I hadn't done the math on that, but I was thinking about the interesting incentives you have to manipulate which day things end via voting the right and wrong people.
Also, reading up on your role, it seems sometimes it doesn't matter if you're alive or dead. Does your PM say?
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@Barney
Nope, just says i can win with whatever side finishes the game on dp5
I got back from Moms Weekend for the most part. I have read whiteflames response but I not in the correct mental space at the moment to be challenging whiteflame wild mildly intoxicated. Gonna review these tmrw around 1pm est or 9:30am est depending when I wake up. His response of us just seems like it's a continuous back and force and won't be resolved fmpv. Imo it just reads as town can't see eye to eye so persona A suspects person B. I will reevaluate this tmrw with a clear head
Am I expected not to mention banging his mom though he keeps bringing her up and trying to goat me into doing it?
I have the self discipline of a God not to get baited. That is incredible restraint on my part.
I also am not in the mood to go tongue and cheek with whiteflame this dp as it ultimately wastes time and distracts town from being productive versus having a yap off for 10 pages. Final thoughts
Yeah, I forgot to catch up and I still have several rounds tomorrow. Sorry about that. That being said, I'll give my reads anyway.
Null:
Earth
-Theme/mechanics:
-Softclaimed one of the five
-I think it's either his real character, or if not, then a mod-provided fakeclaim - simply due to the risk of a CC.
-Behavior:
-Inactive as hell. Sorry.
-Lynching Grey feels really lazy.
-Hasn't given much in the way of original analysis.
Conclusion: Lurkers gonna lurk.
Barney
-Theme/mechanics:
-Pretty blatant softclaim. Likely one character, outside shot of another.
-I'm going to hold him to it
-I think it's either his real character, or if not, then a mod-provided fakeclaim - simply due to the risk of a CC.
-Behavior:
-Not gonna lie, I don't really have much.
-A lot of what he's posting seems fluffy, to say the least. Dashboards are nice but don't take much effort. Occasional check-ins, random comments, voting BK for fun and profit, etc.
-On the other hand, it could just be laziness. Pressuring BK to claim (right after posting a dashboard with his claim, no less!) is certainly not the behavior of someone trying to lie low.
Conclusion: Not much reads on behavior, but I think laziness is more likely than lurking.
Slight scum:
-Vader
-Theme/mechanics:
-Rachel Dare is a large outlier for me in terms of theme. Frankly, she's a forgettable character. I went through the first book of HoO, she barely plays a part beyond advancing the plot slightly.
-It seems possibly indicative of a themesplit - Rachel is the only claimed character who is not a demigod.
-x1 cop is fishy to say the least. Not only are Emissary and Dreamer also investigative roles, but they are also the same type of investigative role - alignment-determining ones.
-No one else has claimed an x-shot role. In Pie's last four games, there were at least three x-shot roles per game. However, of these x-shot roles, every single one had to be so in order for balancing (e.g. x1 Governor). I don't see how nerfing a cop into a ground by giving it 1-shot makes sense.
-Behavior:
-I just looked back at the Joebob lynch and he was online and actively posting at the time of the lynch, so I consider him part of the flashwagon, even though he was voting Joebob beforehand.
-He voted Joebob based mainly on mechanics, although tbf whiteflame did the same
-I'm mostly concerned about claiming x1 cop. It's hard to imagine a world where a town player genuinely claims this thinking it benefits town.
-I don't buy the "rust" excuse, it's not that hard to consider the potential consequences of claiming.
-On the other hand, a scum player benefits from claiming this way in several ways:
-Gets towncred from claiming early
-Gets a plausible reason for not being NK'd
-Buddying up whiteflame (I'm not saying that it's unreasonable to investigate whiteflame, but immediately outing an innocent result is weird)
-After that, seemed to attack me and BK without a clear reason.
-I don't think putting pressure is inherently scummy, but using logical inconsistencies to do so feels suspicious.
-I also don't like how instead of defending his reads, he immediately questioned whiteflame (shifting the BOP, as it were)
Conclusion: Thematic outlier in terms of character. Heavy mechanical outlier. Slight FOS based on DP1. Cop claim is very weird. Targeting me and BK feels like a way to push a mislynch, aggravated by his refusal to directly defend his reads.
And also the GP Problem:
-Honestly, right now, GP is probably more of an asset to us rather than scum, considering that two more mislynches will likely end the game.
-Thus, he's highly motivated to help lynch at least one scum in the next few DPs.
-Although I'm not above settling for GP as a compromise lynch, I would prefer for us to avoid wasting time discussing it unless we're absolutely sure that we can't get another lynch done in time. Lynching GP is lynching someone who is not trying to actively kill us.
Forget what I said about not catching up, I probably went through this DP like three or four times while posting the above wall of text. Going through whiteflame, BK, and Wylted now.
I guess Austin decided to pause there to get some sleep.
We've got about 11 hours before the DP ends and we need to come to a consensus on who we're lynching, so I'll be blunt: it comes down to Vader and GP for me. I'm fine with either one, but the one that looks scummiest to me is Vader. I've already explained why at length in multiple responses to him, and I think Austin does a good job giving those and other reasons why he comes off as scummy. His claim doesn't make sense in the context of every other claim so far (a 1X Cop in a sea of unlimited, uncommon claims and softclaims with an Emissary already confirmed) and his decision to out himself early in the DP makes little sense as town (copping someone innocent, particularly someone who isn't and hasn't been the subject of attention, and then outing himself as 1X to broadcast that he's no longer a useful target) are reason enough.
The reason I'm not writing GP off as my pick is that I'm still not convinced that there's even a TP in this game. I suspect, based on the collection of claims and softclaims in this game, that all seven of the main heroes of this series would be in this game. I'm certain there are at least 5 of those 7 in play. At the moment, I'm almost positive that It's unusual that one was just set aside as a fake claim. Maybe this is just too much modpsych and Pie included him as a character among the 12 that he'd originally planned only to remove him when the number dropped down to 10. Maybe. It just seems odd that, of all the roles he'd choose to keep from those 12 original selections, one would be Prophet of all things.
All that being said, I'm leaning more towards voting Vader right now. I don't want to lean too heavily on modpsych to make a decision this DP, and the Prophet claim just seems so strange for scum to use, given that it's almost always going to stand as alternative lynch. I do think Austin's theory about the "demigods vs. other" theme split is worth considering as well, and since Octavian is a demigod (as is Frank), that increases my uncertainty here.
And since we're not getting anywhere without voting, I'm going to put it down clearly: VTL Vader
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@whiteflame
I think the safest play for me to do for you guys to win on DP 5 is to sheep WF.
VTL VADER
GP is the safest vote here. He isn't town and even if he helps us, it's not like he has great scum hunting ability. Let's not have a replay of last DP where we took an unnecessary risk. Had we just went with the sage lynch first last time we would have lynched joebob today and got at least 1 piece of information.
If vader is scum we can lynch him next DP. There is also a chance he is town and lying and is a 2x or something and we get more information. By waiting one more day.
Out options are lynch somebody who is definitely not town or lynch somebody who is probably not town. It seems obvious what to do
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@whiteflame
I am not sure about lynching Vader, since while his gameplay may seem scummy, he actually has a tradition of going after me in any game we play, as I am always in his scum list, only this time he focused me too much for no reason, making almost every comment about me. But I dont know much about theme, I just know that GP is certain non-town while Vader might even somehow be town despite everything what happened so far, and I am not sure if we can afford a mislynch. Still, if I cant lynch GP this dp, then I will agree to lynch Vader, and if you are right about Vader, then we dont need to worry as he isnt getting away if we lynch GP first, but going after Vader now might be a terrible misplay which makes town maybe even lose if Vader turns town and GP joins scum, which he might do because we have no way to confirm what GP is saying and his move could have been a gambit where he takes the risk to possibly succeed in tricking us.
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@Best.Korea
@WyIted
@WyIted I'm willing to consider it, but for now, my vote stays where it is. I think we risk more by leaving two scum alive than we do by leaving a TP alive, so I'm not sure I agree that the best way to go is getting rid of the claimed TP. As for your position that Vader might be hiding a multiple use role... I don't really get it. It's extremely strange play to not only out oneself as he did at the beginning of the DP and claim a 1X use despite other claims and the flip not being so limited. Maybe this is a gambit to avoid being NK'd, but the obvious way to do that would have been to avoid giving results altogether. It's an odd way to play the role that puts him at much greater risk of being lynched, something he knows at this point.
@BK It's not so much the theme or behavior that's being used as a basis for sussing him, though that's part of it. I think we have a solid basis for sussing him that goes beyond those elements. That being said, both of these lynches are on the table for me and if everyone's that skiddish about lynching a claimed Cop, I'll change my vote.