Instigator / Pro
1
1500
rating
1
debates
100.0%
won
Topic
#5927
Climate skepticism is wishful thinking.
Status
Finished
The debate is finished. The distribution of the voting points and the winner are presented below.
Winner & statistics
After 1 vote and with 1 point ahead, the winner is...
eboxjmc
Parameters
- Publication date
- Last updated date
- Type
- Standard
- Number of rounds
- 4
- Time for argument
- Three days
- Max argument characters
- 10,000
- Voting period
- One week
- Point system
- Winner selection
- Voting system
- Open
Contender / Con
0
1500
rating
2
debates
50.0%
won
Description
No information
Round 1
I believe in climate change, or to be more grammatically correct I believe that the climate is changing. I believe it because it's measurable. Galileo invented the thermometer and age ago but very precise and calibrated mercury thermometers were invented 300 years ago by Mr Fahrenheit and a hundred years before that the first barometers were invented. We have been measuring and recording the weather and climate around the globe ever since.
Being an Englishman I'm aware of our acute fascination with the weather. Good weather and bad weather is the difference between successful harvests and starvation. Barometers tell us when pressure is rising and falling, warning us of good or bad weather coming. The difference in pressure between 2 or more places tells us what wind directions and speed it will be. This information can save harvests before they are ruined in the fields. So we look for the signs of weather and we have large detailed records as a result.
The records from multiple countries and organisations mapped a trend when correlated, finding that average temperatures were on an upward trend. This was less controversial prior to identifying the cause.
A new science came into being pulling from physics, chemistry and geology called climatology. Looking to the past to predict the future. Fortunately pre human climate evidence can be found in ice and rock and what is found is an earth in constant climate change. This is why I believe the climate is changing because it has always been changing. Climate stability is the true myth.
Now acknowledging that the climate is in fact changing is a no brainer to those in agriculture just as trends in diet or fashion might affect what crops or animals farmers farm, a harvest that doesn't come because a cold snap killed the germinated sprouts is just as bad as a crop nobody wants to buy. To others the realisation is more complex of a thought process.
Through climatologists we have learned that several phenomena can affect our climate and have done in the past. The earth's orbit is sometimes more elliptical, meteor strikes and volcano eruptions causing light blocking clouds have lead to ice ages gradually rising again when the smoke clears, the dust falls and the orbit returns to circular. These causes have been ruled out. There is one more theory out there, the greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse effect is caused by gases most notable for it's volume in comparison to the others is carbon dioxide (CO2). Making up only 0.04% of the atmosphere at present it sounds harmless. In fact CO2 is double the amount it would be if human activity wasn't producing and releasing it into the atmosphere. CO2 reacts to the heat reflected by the earth's surface, absorbing it and releasing heat in all directions some of which is back to the earth. That essentially is the theory. We need CO2 and it's effects to keep us warm but too much and we get too warm.
So CO2 looks like a pretty good culprit, actually seems like the main culprit to climate change.
More heat in our environment the more energy there is for weather patterns, more storms, more extremes and less predictability which is a serious concern for food security around the world. Countries that have had man made issues with food production are well aware of the severity of the issue, the dustbowl in the US, potato famine in Ireland and the bee decimation in China nearly causing agricultural collapse have been times where we have learned that to stumble blindly can lead to disaster. CO2 is a warning call to action.
For everyone who buys their groceries in the shop there is a disconnect between this awareness and being told we might have to give up a lot of really great stuff and change how we live is a little too much to wrap our heads around and is certainly not desirable.
Cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias has skewed what is an established fact into doubt and conspiracy. It's an established, testable and consistent response to unpleasant news. So people argue that it could be the earth's orbit causing it because their minds ignored the conclusion that our present orbit is circular and therefore ruled out as a possibility. Stakeholders in the business of CO2 producing activities have made it their business to furnish those in denial with contradictory information to dispell political pressure from targeting them.
This is why the public believe that climate change is just a theory and largely contestested instead of the actual 99% consensus in the climatology profession.
In conclusion to my opening arguments I will recap briefly that climate change data has been recorded for a long time, even prior to the industrial revolution. The numbers show the climate is changing and faster than it has from normal natural processes, although perhaps not as abruptly as extinction level events in earth's history. Knowing the cause and the danger an uncertain climate can have on food security gives us a responsibility to act. Acting to limit or reduce the effects on the environment means there is a cost impact and a lifestyle impact that everyone is going to have to pay naturally leaves many in denial. Denial fed by stakeholders of the status quo can easily find fertile ground for conspiracy theories and junk science by scientists mainly from the fossil fuel industry. So why not be skeptical and keep all the amazing things and not pay a penny more.
Forfeited
Round 2
As I don’t have a rebuttal to my opening argument to respond to, I think my next opening argument in round 2 should just be an overview of the emotional/psychological tendencies that promotes people’s preferences to hold beliefs in conspiracy theories over the truth. There are several psychological and cognitive phenomena that influence people so here’s a list:
1. Motivated Reasoning – People process information in a way that aligns with their pre-existing beliefs, often rejecting inconvenient truths in favour of more appealing conspiracies.
2. Confirmation Bias – Individuals seek out and interpret information in a way that supports their existing worldview, ignoring or dismissing contradictory evidence.
3. Proportionality Bias – The belief that major events must have major causes, leading people to reject simple explanations in favour of grand conspiracies.
4. Illusory Pattern Perception – The tendency to perceive connections or patterns where none exist, making random events seem like part of a larger plot.
5. Epistemic Injustice – When people distrust mainstream knowledge sources (scientists, journalists, experts) due to past deception, real or perceived, they turn to alternative explanations.
6. Reactance – A psychological response where people reject official narratives simply because they resent authority telling them what to believe.
7. Need for Uniqueness – Some individuals enjoy believing in conspiracy theories because it makes them feel like they possess special knowledge that others don’t.
8. Dunning-Kruger Effect – People with limited knowledge on a subject may overestimate their understanding, leading them to dismiss expert consensus in favour of fringe ideas.
Climate change skepticism is influenced by several of these cognitive biases and psychological tendencies. Here’s how each one plays a role:
1. Motivated Reasoning – Many skeptics have ideological, economic, or personal reasons for rejecting climate science. For example, if someone strongly supports free markets and opposes government regulation, they may subconsciously reject climate change because accepting it could justify government intervention.
2. Confirmation Bias – Skeptics tend to seek out information that supports their doubts (e.g., cherry-picking cold weather events) while dismissing or ignoring the overwhelming evidence supporting climate change.
3. Proportionality Bias – Climate change is a massive, world-altering phenomenon, but it has a relatively simple cause (greenhouse gas emissions). Some people feel that such a big problem must have a more complex or sinister explanation, like a global conspiracy.
4. Illusory Pattern Perception – Skeptics often find "patterns" in climate data that don't actually disprove warming, such as short-term cooling trends, and misinterpret them as evidence that the climate isn't changing or that scientists are manipulating data.
5. Epistemic Injustice – Many skeptics distrust experts, believing that scientists are corrupt or politically motivated. Past instances of scientific misconduct in unrelated fields or leaked emails like in the debunked "Climategate" reinforce their belief that climate science is untrustworthy.
6. Reactance – When governments and scientists push climate action, some people instinctively resist because they see it as an attempt to control their behaviour e.g., limiting car use, taxing emissions. This fuels rejection of the entire premise of climate change.
7. Need for Uniqueness – Some skeptics take pride in “seeing through the lies” and believe they possess knowledge that the masses do not, making them feel special or intellectually superior.
8. Dunning-Kruger Effect – People with little expertise in climate science may feel confident in their skepticism after reading a few articles or watching YouTube videos, believing they understand the issue better than climate scientists who have studied it for decades.
These psychological effects contribute to why people hold onto climate skepticism despite overwhelming scientific consensus. This kind of thinking applies to other conspiracy theories and opinions too and is the key to respectfully addressing someone's beliefs, remembering that to them those that are disagreeing with them are incorrect.
Forfeited
Round 3
I'll rest my argument here until a counter argument is submitted.
Thanks to anyone who has read through my arguments and feel free to add any comments.
Forfeited
Round 4
Over to you to have the last word.
Forfeited
@Mps1213
Thanks for enquiring, this is the first debate for me and I didn't get an opposing point of view. You would make an interesting opponent for this argument as I understand your opinion makes you an outlier in your field.
The debate about, is the climate changing? has been done and dusted. Also that any natural conditions as a cause have been robustly eliminated. The scientific consensus is virtuously unanimous.
The thing about the aspect of this debate is to address the psychology of climate change denial. If someone has a logical alternative theory that has been published and peer reviewed and has a growing consensus it would help to demonstrate that denial of the prevailing consensus is not just avoidance of the uncomfortable truth.
So feeling like you don't find it wishful thinking actually supports the idea it is exactly wishful thinking.
What do you think rising temperatures indicate? Why does that mean humans are the driving force?
The fact around this entire debate is that the data are incredibly uncertain. I am a geoscientist with a degree that focuses in data analytics. I can explain to you in as much detail as you do or don’t want as to why the data is uncertain. Uncertainty in science means no concrete claims are made. Which is typically the path most scientists take in regard to this discussion, even though the media tries their hardest to pretend otherwise.
I am a geoscientist by profession. I know the majority of my debates on this site are about drugs, however, geoscience is what I do for a living.
I completely disagree with the title of this debate in every way. I would be willing to have this debate with you. Although the proposition is weird. If I can make a case that I don’t find it wishful thinking at all does that mean I win? Or do I need to actually explain why I am not willing to certainly say humans are the cause of the current climate change? Either way, I’ll debate you on this topic.
I don't know, maybe some research is required. Do you doubt NOAA findings that the temp measurement is random, not a continuous rise year after year? Complain to them.
I dont need any mass research. Maybe when maximum temperatures reach so high that we are barely able to survive, people will have sense knocked into them.
I guess people only learn when they are punched in the face.
NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association] has kept temperature measurement records since 1997, and over the next twenty years, not even a blink in geologic time, reported measurements in their Annual Report. The problem is, as you accuse our human insensitivity to "climate change," the highest temperature measurements have not been in consistently consecutive years as activists claim. Further, 11 years in those 20 were not even in the top ten hottest years, so it would seem we're looking at natural variation, not a trend. Further, I am professionally familiar with measurement tools and their calibration, and I ask: how many global measurement stations are there in the world? Are they all using the same measurement equipment? Is the equipment used the optimum equipment for the measurement intended? Is the accuracy of the equipment meet the ten-times-accuracy required to assure accuracy of measurement for whatever the allowed tolerance is? How accurate and timely are the calibration schedules for these measurement devices? These are just a few of the measurement questions that must be asked. And I'll tell you, from professional experience: the data collected is not recognizing the importance of these questions, resulting in flawed data. So, what are your expectations, again, regarding the accuracy of measuring "climate change?" Inaccurate data means what for accurate conclusions?
It is mostly those who dont believe their own eyes, those are the ones denying climate change.
The temperatures have risen in past few decades so much.