I would like to thank my opponent for inviting me to this debate. I am also appreciative of all prospective voters.
In recent years, as the broad majority of the American public has donned face coverings in an effort to limit the spread of COVID-19, we have found that illnesses we take for granted - such as the common cold and flu - saw lower transmission rates as a result of said masking practices. This finding, combined with the claim that mask mandates come with few-to-no drawbacks, forms the basis for my opponent’s argument that mask mandates are a virtually painless way to keep us healthier.
While I concur that mask mandates have kept us healthier in recent years (both with respect to COVID and “status quo” illnesses), I doubt that indefinite mandates would bring the same benefits we have seen thus far. Perhaps more importantly, I also disagree with the framing of mandates as a low-to-no cost policy. As I will demonstrate, an indefinite masking policy would bring steep costs, far out of proportion to whatever gains we might hope to achieve.
I will begin by outlining the threat indefinite mask mandates pose to public health officials’ credibility. Then, I will show how diminished credibility would (1) make it more difficult to overcome COVID in the short-term (2) impair our near- to medium-term ability to suppress future COVID outbreaks (3) reduce the long-term efficacy of a hypothetical indefinite mask mandate. I will then close by offering alternatives to indefinite mask mandates that would likely bring greater benefits and fewer costs.
A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE (IN PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS)
(a) Promises Made Must be Kept
I hardly need to remind readers - who have lived through the same pandemic I have - that emergency health measures such as social distancing, quarantines, virtual schooling, working from home, breakneck-speed vaccine developments, and mask mandates, were explained to the public as just that: emergency measures.
And now, as case rates decline and each subsequent variant appears less lethal than the last, the emergency measures - as promised - are melting away. When CDC Director Rochelle Walensky
announced this time last year that her agency no longer recommended masking or social distancing for the fully vaccinated, she framed it as a return to normal, an end in sight for those under the protection of the vaccine:
“you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic," adding, "we have all longed for this moment." (emphasis added)
The scientific establishment - the Dr. Fauci’s, CDC Directors, Presidential Science Advisors, and Sanjay Gupta’s of our civil society - defined these measures as temporary. A promise was made to the public: mask up, social distance, get vaccinated. We will get through this together. There is light at the end of the tunnel. This will not be forever.
A change as drastic as my opponent proposes, going from masks as an emergency response to a permanent part of public life, would be nothing less than breaking a promise made to the people.
Betraying this promise would jeopardize the foundations of public trust in government health officials, foundations that are already on shaky ground. Even without such a betrayal, large and vocal swaths of the population already distrust public health experts; anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers
rage against common sense, asserting a “plandemic” intended to control the populace,
referring to masks as oppressive “muzzles.” Though some might dismiss such thinking as conspiritorial and fringe, general skepticism toward the scientific establishment is not fringe: consider the
66% of Republicans who claim public health experts are “no different or worse” than non-experts at policy-making, or the
73% of Republicans who express vaccine hesitancy or outright refusal.
It’s also worth noting that this current sorry state of affairs is partially of public health officials’ own making. Readers may recall that in the early months of 2020, leading public health officials
claimed masks were not useful for public defense against the virus, motivated by concerns of shortages for medical workers. The subsequent position reversal in April of 2020 and follow-on mask mandates gave ample ammunition to those already skeptical of - or outright hostile to - scientific expertise.
To do what my opponent proposes would be to commit the same error but on an even greater scale, adding more fuel to the fire. To maintain an indefinite mask mandate, in express contradiction of what the public has been promised for over 2 years, and in the face of fewer and fewer COVID cases, would lead many Americans to doubt the wisdom or intentions of public health officials. Given that a troubling number already do, our politics - and public health - can scarcely afford more doubters.
(b) Policy vs. Practice
Say we took the plunge and severely damaged public health officials’ credibility - what then? Beginning with short-term consequences and moving out to the long-term, here I outline specific hazards we risk by instituting indefinite mask mandates.
(i) Short-term: Finishing off COVID
At the risk of stating what is obvious to readers, I must begin by pointing out that public health professionals have long held that
widespread vaccination is key to ending the pandemic and a return to normal. A failure to achieve widespread vaccination - also known as herd immunity - threatens to prolong the pandemic by enabling the virus to circulate through unvaccinated pockets of the population, giving it time to spawn new variants that are less inhibited by vaccination. Already, many have
cast doubt on the likelihood of achieving herd immunity.
Only 66% of the US population is fully vaccinated, and a dispiriting 33% have received booster shots. An 80-90% vaccination rate has been estimated as the
minimum threshold for herd immunity. Even in a
sub-herd immunity endgame, the rate of vaccination is critical to moderating the severity of an endemic COVID. Reaching the 80-90% mark, or as close as we can manage, is critical to returning to normal.
It’s the desire to return to normal, in fact, that
motivates many to get vaccinated. But in a world where mask mandates are indefinite, the “get vaccinated so we can get back to normal” message would suffer greatly. Individuals who were apathetic about getting vaccinated, or discouraged by perceived barriers to access, would have even less reason to get the shot. Worse, individuals sympathetic to vaccine ‘skepticism’ would have less reason to take a perceived risk by vaccinating, and more reason to doubt the trustworthiness of public health officials (e.g. “if they lied about mask mandates going away, are they lying about vaccine safety?”).
In short, all our worst tendencies that have hampered vaccine-based herd immunity would only be exacerbated if masks were indefinitely mandated.
(ii) Preventing Resurgence
Once an endemic COVID is reduced to a low ‘background hum’ of cases, there still will remain the potential for COVID’s resurgence, just as ‘conquered’ diseases like mumps or pertussis still manage
occasional outbreaks. Consider the following scenario:
It is 2026, and COVID kills about as many as the flu per year. This is not good, but a vast improvement over the pandemic years and is not taken as cause for concern by the general populace. A new variant with a high transmission rate is detected in Mesa, Arizona. Mesa’s population is highly conservative, and consequently, vaccine uptake has been well-below herd immunity requirements. Public health officials want the government and society of Arizona to move decisively to prevent a regional or even nationwide resurgence of COVID. Given the efficacy of masking in suppressing COVID, especially when compliance surpasses 75%, public health officials need the population to mask up.
Now, in light of the usefulness of a mask mandate in such a scenario, we must consider the impact of my opponent’s proposal. If my opponent had their way, and masking had been indefinitely imposed, the aforementioned damage to the public health establishment’s credibility would have been dealt. Government officials, still urging masking despite minimal threat from COVID, would not be taken seriously by a growing portion of the population. Naturally, as fewer people took public health officials and their mask mandates seriously, fewer people would comply.
This is a critical point: policy and practice are not the same. Health officials could mandate indefinite masking, but it is unlikely compliance would follow indefinitely. Consider not just the increasingly incredulous population, but also the people tasked with enforcing a hypothetical indefinite mask mandate. Many such “frontline” workers
would be low-income retail and food service workers - many of whom would not be motivated to confront customers not wearing masks when there is no apparent reason for the masks.
Apply this conclusion to the 2026 Mesa, Arizona scenario. If the conservative population of Mesa had been told that they must keep wearing masks even though COVID has been a minor threat for years, do we really think they would still be complying with the indefinite masking mandate? And when public health officials - who have little-to-no credibility with the conservative population - push for renewed compliance with the mandate, do we really expect compliance to reach levels high enough to effectively suppress the outbreak? Especially in light of the 75% masking threshold for effective suppression, it is ludicrous to expect a sufficient masking response.
Conversely, if mask mandates had been dropped in accordance with COVID’s fading, the credibility of public health officials - while not in great standing with conservatives - would not be in absolute tatters. In the event of an outbreak in the 2026 scenario’s mold, we can reasonably predict that public compliance with newly implemented and temporary emergency masking measures would be much higher than under an indefinite masking regime.
Thus, the credibility of public health officials and mask mandates will directly impact our ability to counter near- to medium-term resurgences of COVID. An indefinite mask mandate would torpedo said credibility, leaving public health officials with less effective tools for combating future outbreaks of COVID. If instead we hold mask mandates in reserve, treating them as the emergency measure the population understands them to be, health officials will have the tools they need to prevent widespread outbreaks in the future.
(iii) The Long-Term Efficacy of Indefinite Mask Mandates
Looking past the near- to medium-term future of COVID, we must consider the long-term impact of indefinite masking on ‘status quo’ illnesses like the flu or common cold. My opponent is correct to note that COVID-driven mask mandates have had the bonus advantage of reducing flu deaths, for example. Consider the 2019-2020 flu season,
which killed around 20,000 Americans - the lowest figure in nearly a decade. I do not dispute that masking kept us safer from the flu.
What I do dispute is that the value of masks demonstrated in 2019 and 2020 would continue to hold after years or decades of an indefinite masking policy. As amply demonstrated in previous sections, much of the public is unlikely to find an indefinite mask mandate - or the public health officials advocating for it - particularly credible. And as incredulity increases, we can reasonably anticipate compliance will decrease. This again brings us to the debate’s critical issue: policy vs. practice. We can mandate that everyone must wear masks for the indefinite future, but as COVID fades and the sense of emergency dissipates, the population is unlikely to comply.
This means the proposed benefit of indefinite masking - reduction of ‘status quo’ illness transmission and deaths - would not materialize over the long-term.
ALTERNATIVE POLICIES: LESS MASKS, MORE MONEY
Accounting for the weaknesses inherent to my opponent’s proposal, I propose two alternative policies that would help us combat COVID and suppress ‘status quo’ illnesses like the flu.
(a) Pay Them to the Do the Right Thing
For every up-to-date vaccination, Americans will receive annual tax credits. The precise details (defining “up-to-date”, the prices, the role of dependents’ vaccination statuses) are immaterial to this debate. The superiority of this policy over indefinite mask mandates holds regardless. By granting a tax credit for vaccination, Americans will receive positive reinforcement for taking pro-public health actions. By granting a material incentive, the public is far more likely to comply. Additionally, this policy would likely enhance the credibility of public health officials, as they would be seen advocating for a policy that puts money in people’s pockets - always a popular thing.
(b) Seasonal Mask Mandates
Not every flu season is created equal. The past decade’s highest seasonal
death count was nearly 5x as large as the decade’s lowest seasonal death count. This variability, combined with the possibility of mild ‘COVID seasons’ in the near- to medium-term, justify the
occasional revival of mask mandates. Having explained mask mandates as temporary measures to combat an emergency public health crisis, public health officials could reasonably deem an upcoming flu/COVID season as threatening enough to require a short period of masking, either nationwide or on a locality basis. This approach would keep many of the desired benefits of my opponent’s proposal without sacrificing the credibility of the public health establishment.
CONCLUSION
To mandate masking on an indefinite basis would constitute a betrayal of the American people, a direct violation of the promise that mask mandates were a temporary emergency measure needed to combat a once-in-a-century pandemic. Ordering such a mandate would do irreparable harm to the public health establishment, compromise near- to medium-term efforts to control COVID, and fail to achieve any meaningful reduction in ‘status quo’ illness transmission.
On the other hand, offering tax incentives and applying mask mandates on a seasonal, as-needed basis would preserve (or even enhance) the credibility of public health officials while offering greater public health benefits.
For these reasons, we ought to reject my opponent’s proposal.
When I was in Japan in the 1980's, everybody was wearing a mask in public.
No, a trap is whatever Admiral Ackbar says it is and most of the time it is just some natural or even unnatural force, and no, they cannot wear masks whether they want it or not and whether if they have the ability to want or not want or not. /s
The whiplash I got when I saw that username
NBD
Masks also help make it harder to identify traps, am I right?
I'm sorry for taking so long to post what was essentially just a copy-paste. I've been very busy as of late.