I reckon in an 11 man game (that Pie preferred being 12 person game) there are 3 scum, not 2.
U.S. Governors Mafia DP1
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You were much more active last dp1 as Town.
It didnt end well for me that time. I focused too much attention on myself.
If there are 3 scums, then the chance for Supa to be scum is 1 in 14.
I am seriously not trusting your statistics in terms of what to bet here, thanks.
Your logic is toxic to the game and doesn't mean anything as over thousands of games the probability of being scum twice in a row is suddenly a lot more realistic and that's how a truly wise gambler should think. He is scumtelling, I am going by that.
The last two games had Supa as non-town.
So if I am going between "over thousands of games the probability of being scum twice in a row is suddenly a lot more realistic" and "it is much more realistic to consider that probability of not being town 3 times in a row is very unrealistic", I am gonna go with mine.
Cool, that is going to lose you games and is actually bannable reasoning on any competitive mafia website as it is both stupid and corrupt.
Your mentality guarantees that scumtells get forgiven for a player if they were scum before and that towntells get ignored for a player if they were Town too often before.
That is not skill based mafia, that is roulette style mafia.
This is not a competitive mafia website, so enjoy your ogi reasoning.
Ogi = outside of game influence.
I am keeping my vote on Supa, unless given a good enough alternative scumread.
Cool, that is going to lose you games and is actually bannable reasoning on any competitive mafia website as it is both stupid and corrupt.Your mentality guarantees that scumtells get forgiven for a player if they were scum before and that towntells get ignored for a player if they were Town too often before.That is not skill based mafia, that is roulette style mafia.
I thought it is obvious that I dont have any skills, so naturally I cannot use what I dont have.
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@Best.Korea
Statistically, there is a very low chance to be scum twice in a row. I believe the chance for that is 1 in 22
That is not how we use math. He likely has a 1 in 3.5 chance of being scum this game or something similar
When it comes to probability, every game resets at zero. Just like in poker. If you just got dealt a pocket pair a 6% likelihood than you don't say next hand I am about 0.36% to get pocket pairs. The last hand has no effect on the hand coming up so the percent resets to 6%.
I'm not gonna be active this DP at all probably. Not till Sunday evening anyway. It's Valentine's "weekend" apparently.
I realise I forgot my weak scumread on SA but that is more a nullread on balance. For SA, saying rirrelevant fluff can be a nulltell. What I dont like is him reading after posting instead of the reverse.
Wylted why did you unvote me and vote Austin
It's RVS, I voted you because it's funny and contributes to what you view as a rivalry. I then voted austin for saying he will be busy something both scum said last game but he claimed and badger made the same claim so I will probably look elsewhere
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@Best.Korea
WyIted's math is correct. You were using the gambler's fallacy in your calculations. Anyone's probability of being scum is independent of whether they were scum in the past.
Gamblers fallacy, that's what it's called. I couldn't remember
Austin: Austin feels towny to me. The amount of information he gave about his governor doesn't seem like something mafia would do. Now, maybe mafia knows there's no theme, for instance, so giving away character information doesn't matter. Still, it seems more likely to come from town than from mafia.
That2: Leans town, but I've never seen her as scum that I remember, so I don't know what that looks like.
Supa: The fact that he said hello doesn't bother me. The fact that he hasn't said anything else does.
Whiteflame: Mostly inactive. Could be nothing, but I don't like it.
Nothing unusual from GP, RM, or Wylted yet.
I have no idea how to read BestKorea.
Barney hasn't said anything.
Badger claims he has an IRL excuse for inactivity.
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@Barney
Ping!
Now, maybe mafia knows there's no theme, for instance, so giving away character information doesn't matter.
Reread the OP and there is a theme.
I then voted austin for saying he will be busy something both scum said last game but he claimed and badger made the same claim so I will probably look elsewhere
sounds like a slip but you mix up words at times so I am unsure how to take that statement
you meant badger also said he'll be inactive.
Badger mentioned valentine's weekend, so I am wondering how many people here actually get laid and will be affected by that.
Today's been rough so far, got a headache from power tools being used close to my head much of the morning - we're remodeling my building entirely and I haven't even had a place to sit down for much of the day.
In any case, I'm caught up on the DP, so I'll give some basic reads before I inevitably have to move locations again.
GP - likely town. Playing to his meta. It's possible that he's using a fake character claim and just came up with the compulsive visitor on the fly as a way to cover for any activity of his that takes place during the NP, but I doubt it. Much as I think the decision to call out what he thinks Austin's governor is is anti-town, it also falls in line with what I've seen from him before as town. He's my strongest townread so far.
WyIted - null. The "I am pretty much confirmed town" BS at the beginning of the DP reads pretty null to me, as does his decision to bounce between RM and Austin. WyIted likes to stir the pot in DP1 to some degree and I think he's doing just that.
That2User - slight scum read. Pretty much starting by asking about adding a 12th is a bit strange (we had started and it just seems silly to ask about adding another player when Pie has presumably balanced the game), but doesn't read either way to me. I don't like that That2 is openly narrowing the options for Austin's gov, since it's not beneficial to openly surmise about what he could be at this stage. Maybe this is just anti-town behavior as town, but I'm not as sure as I am with GP. Also, not sure why That2 just asked Supa for reads, but no one else.
Austin - slight town read. His "soft-claim" was anything but, and the light pressure that was being applied on him was no reason to do so. That being said, the decision itself felt townie. Maybe it's just my gut feeling, but I was pretty sure he'd push back harder against WyIted's sussing if he was scum. I don't love that his first post was an excuse not to be present, but I don't automatically read that as scummy.
RM - null. Consistently had a hard time reading RM this early. He's very active and seems more aware of his biases, which is off from his normal behavior patterns, but given that there's been a lot of strain with him over that behavior in previous games, I don't read that shift as scummy. Not surprised by his reads so far - they seem to fall within his usual pattern, though leaving SirAnon out of his full list of reads is a bit strange given all their interactions, even if he did address his view of SirAnon earlier.
SirAnon - slight scum read. The decision to post first with the excuse to not post followed by engagement is a strange choice, though given what he's deal with in terms of logging on, it might just be specific to this situation as he said. The reads make some sense, though he left quite a few people out of it and the decision to sus inactivity from Supa and me but not from Badger, who chose to start by giving an excuse and nothing else, is a bit scummy.
SupaDudz - null. Not going to try to read him off of a post that just says "Hello".
Best.Korea - slight scum read. I don't like the probability-based gameplay so far and the fact that he seems so confident of it is a little strange, as is the decision to handwave his logic as not having "any skills", though I want to read back through the previous game to get a feel for his play before I make a call on that. The fact that he called out there being "3 scums" in this game stands out more, though. I'd expect him to go through a set of options if he was town, not zero in on this as a likely scenario.
badger - slight scum read. Someone who posts this late in the DP where he could have posted at least some basic thoughts only to give a decently likely, if awfully convenient, excuse for not being active reads pretty scummy.
Barney - null. No posts yet.
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@whiteflame
the decision to sus inactivity from Supa and me but not from Badger, who chose to start by giving an excuse and nothing else, is a bit scummy.
I try to be more lenient to people with a real life excuse.
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@whiteflame
I was thinking about SirAnon while writing it and somehow thought I had written him by the end, that is the only thing I can tell you.
I was debating if he is a nullread or a scumread and decided he is a scumread that is mild and then I wrote you, supa and best korea and forgot. Also, I am not sure best korea is scum, my read has reduced since. I think scum is SA, Supa and Wylted if we are to assume that scum has no inactives at all. The reason this ignores my reads is because of interactions had and not had.
The reaction from SA to Wylted when Wylted said he's essentially confirmed town for the pregame thread, seems like SA forcing an interaction where he is socially smarter than that and knows Wylted is joking or baiting. The way SA is interacting is likely primarily aimed at Town if he is scum, meaning his interaction with you makes me townread you based off of that theory and that his interaction with Wylted seems very forced.
I did correct myself afterwards like literally a couple minutes later.
I literally think SA is scum not based on himself anymore but based on how he is contradicting his promised inactivity (but even I do that as Town, depends on random free time spurts) but I also can't justify enough in my own head to myself. I can see everything he is doing as Town SA too, I nullread him but he is interacting extremely selectively and strangely.
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@SirAnonymous
your interactions seem to be to reply 1 message to each person as the day progresses, as in the fundamental aim seems to be to be active towards people for the sake of activity, is that how you normally approach mafia dp1? I don't really know you well in mafia.
What do you call someone who is a nullread you still think is scum? That is my read on SA.