Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Author: Swagnarok

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#1
Swagnarok
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In a stunning reversal of fortunes, Ukraine has successfully defied predictions of a permanent stalemate and advanced on the northeastern front, recapturing large swaths of territory and forcing a chaotic Russian retreat from the area which shows no signs of having stopped yet.

Ukraine has liberated the strategic railway hub of Kupiansk and the stronghold of Izyum, with signs that they could soon retake Svatove and Lysychansk. It's worth noting that Lysychansk was the last major conquest of Russia's "second phase" offensive earlier this year, and Lysychansk is very close to Sieverodonetsk. If Ukraine retakes both, it'll be a signal that said offensive achieved nothing.

While at this point much of the above remains speculation, what we've seen is nonetheless a good sign that Western military aid to Ukraine is paying off. And it's a sign that we ought to give more so that they have a fighting chance of finishing the job.
#2
Greyparrot
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@Swagnarok
It's unlikely Putin isn't prepared for an extended war and may even welcome trading blows with the west over a prolonged period at this point using Ukraine as a proxy to drain resources from the west. The war is really about who will control the petrodollar and the stakes are far more than the land in Ukraine. If Putin can undermine the US dollar by encouraging more deficit spending on an unwinnable war, he may be willing to make that trade if it means a relatively stronger ruble and the emergence of a Sino-Russian economic alliance and dominance in Asia. The musings that Ukraine could possibly regain all the Eastern territory lost to Russia that they had to have a civil war to gain in the first place is pure fantasy, even if the west were to go trillions in debt to make it happen.


That is the real reason Putin wants this war. ^^^
#3
RationalMadman
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Doesn't change the genocide and the forced emigration.

Russia has sinned immensely.
#4
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@Greyparrot
--> @Swagnarok
It's unlikely Putin isn't prepared for an extended war and may even welcome trading blows with the west over a prolonged period at this point using Ukraine as a proxy to drain resources from the west. The war is really about who will control the petrodollar and the stakes are far more than the land in Ukraine. If Putin can undermine the US dollar by encouraging more deficit spending on an unwinnable war, he may be willing to make that trade if it means a relatively stronger ruble and the emergence of a Sino-Russian economic alliance and dominance in Asia. The musings that Ukraine could possibly regain all the Eastern territory lost to Russia that they had to have a civil war to gain in the first place is pure fantasy, even if the west were to go trillions in debt to make it happen.


That is the real reason Putin wants this war. ^^^
Your link is old stuff and it never happened. The USD is as strong as ever.

Russia couldn’t even handle Afghanistan which resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Ukraine is Putins big mistake. 

#5
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@Shila
The USD is as strong as ever.

Wut? lolz.
#6
Earth
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This is probably the turning point in the war. Good on Ukraine.
#7
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@Earth
This is probably the turning point in the war. Good on Ukraine.
It did come across as good news. 

#8
ADreamOfLiberty
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It appears that all the time since WW2 Russian military theory has barely evolved. The age of the armored spearhead is over, the fact that it worked for the US in Iraq was a false positive.
#9
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A truly astonishing and historic and admirable reversal.  But Russia's apparent weakness is dangerous and provocative.  China will not ignore the largest country in the world lying defenseless at it doorstep for long.  The West needs to be ready for Putin's end and start preparing irresistible incentives for a post-Putin Russia to become more democratic, open for immigration and ideally, itself a member of NATO.
#10
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@Greyparrot
The USD is as strong as ever.
Wut? lolz.
exactly
#11
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@ADreamOfLiberty
It appears that all the time since WW2 Russian military theory has barely evolved. The age of the armored spearhead is over, the fact that it worked for the US in Iraq was a false positive.
great point
#12
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Hesitant to jump to massive conclusions from this, except that this has increased my optimism a bit, and also I feel much more strongly that the US should continue supplying arms to Ukraine. 
#13
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@3RU7AL
The West's obsession with becoming energy deficient while chasing  the dream of the green energy religion has crippled the west's ability to keep Putin in check. It's too bad that no world leader foresaw this coming. Most of Europe is headed to a very dark and cold winter this year.
#14
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@Tejretics
the US should continue supplying arms to Ukraine. 
Would you be against supplying Ukraine if it meant a likely and relatively quick end to the war?

There are countless historical examples in foreign conflicts that definitively prove more American aid means a longer war.

In the current situation where Russia's ruble is on the ascent and the USD is on the decline, prolonging the war may be exactly what Putin wants right now. Especially as the world currency is in the process of switching from amenities to basic raw energy with the consequences of the great reset.

It's worth taking a realistic view as to what would be acceptable peace conditions for the west and exactly how much it would cost to achieve those military goals. Most people really are not aware just how much military aid would be required to take ALL of the East Ukraine back. In light of this, you should be prepared to accept a world where Russia keeps control of a good bit of the Russian speaking part of Ukraine. Whether that end comes sooner or later depends on how long you want to delay the inevitable and how much debt you are willing to go into.
#15
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@oromagi
The West needs to be ready for Putin's end and start preparing irresistible incentives for a post-Putin Russia to become more democratic, open for immigration and ideally, itself a member of NATO.
Well we're finally on the same page about something.... as long as by "democratic" you don't mean almost no election integrity + enormous tax burdens and regulation.

However some historical context for this comment might be nice, Russia did make overtures at being part of the NATO club after the wall fell. The military industrial complex (i.e. the deep state) had no interest in removing one of their excuses to collect stolen wealth and they shut that down.

For decades the deep state treated Russia like a geopolitical enemy without the excuse of ideological differences and I very much doubt this invasion would have happened in any other case.
#16
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I tend to be skeptical.  What if reports of Ukrainian victories are essentially propaganda (and I don't mean this term in a pejorative way) to try to boost morale.

For example, when Russia wins a battle, media in the east will focus on that.  When Ukraine wins a battle, the media in the west will focus on that.

I hope Ukraine wins and this war ends quickly.  But we also have to prepare for the possibility that this conflict is longer and more casualty-filled than we may expect.
#17
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Russia did make overtures at being part of the NATO club after the wall fell.
bingo
#18
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@Greyparrot
It's too bad that no world leader foresaw this coming.
i'm pretty certain they knew exactly what they were doing

line the pockets of the ULTRA RICH OLIGARCHS

and don't give a fuck about the rest of us
#19
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@ADreamOfLiberty

--> @oromagi
The West needs to be ready for Putin's end and start preparing irresistible incentives for a post-Putin Russia to become more democratic, open for immigration and ideally, itself a member of NATO.
Well we're finally on the same page about something.... as long as by "democratic" you don't mean almost no election integrity + enormous tax burdens and regulation.

However some historical context for this comment might be nice, Russia did make overtures at being part of the NATO club after the wall fell. The military industrial complex (i.e. the deep state) had no interest in removing one of their excuses to collect stolen wealth and they shut that down.

For decades the deep state treated Russia like a geopolitical enemy without the excuse of ideological differences and I very much doubt this invasion would have happened in any other case.
Russia is a Communist country. It was a threat to the democratic countries in NATO and going nuclear only increased the threat.

It is for this very reason NATO is such a threat to Russia. The Soviet Union broke up to form independent sovereign democratic countries and some of them have even joined NATO. 

#20
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@ADreamOfLiberty
For decades the deep state treated Russia like a geopolitical enemy without the excuse of ideological differences and I very much doubt this invasion would have happened in any other case.

This is an important point which suggests there is no guarantee Russia will change its policy course even if it changed leaders. In fact, there is a sizable contingent in Russia from the loyal hardliners that claim Putin is being too soft and not as committed. Removing Putin could have very unexpected consequences.
#21
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@Greyparrot
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For decades the deep state treated Russia like a geopolitical enemy without the excuse of ideological differences and I very much doubt this invasion would have happened in any other case.

This is an important point which suggests there is no guarantee Russia will change its policy course even if it changed leaders. In fact, there is a sizable contingent in Russia from the loyal hardliners that claim Putin is being too soft and not as committed. Removing Putin could have very unexpected consequences.
Putin cannot afford to lose the war in Ukraine or he might be unseated as President. Without the power of office Putin will see all his wealth and billionaire Oligarchs put in jail.

The west and NATO countries would welcome a denuclearized Russia after Putin.

#22
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@Shila
The oligarchs in Russia operate almost the same as American Oligarchs. Whoever is in charge answers to the Oligarchs in both cases.
#23
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The oligarchs in Russia operate almost the same as American Oligarchs. Whoever is in charge answers to the Oligarchs in both cases.
But the wealthy are protected under the law in America. Not so under dictatorships. Look at the many billionaires Putin has arrested and strip them of their wealth. Many had to escape to the UK.

#24
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@Shila
In America, that is done with a hostile corporate takeover.
#25
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@Shila
Russia is a Communist country. It was a threat to the democratic countries in NATO and going nuclear only increased the threat.
What in the world are you talking about? Russia was a nominal member and obvious hegemon of the soviet union, but the soviet union fell.

It is not a communist country, the word "communism" means something and what it means is not "enemy of the CIA" even if you can be forgiven for getting that impression.

Communist government means a system which aims at collectivizing all production and property de jure or de facto. Not only does the Russian Federation make no such official claim, there are objective measurements for the "progress" towards communism, such as tax burden. Russia's tax code is one of the least communist in the world.

The PRC is a communist government both in name and by many of its policies, although it is more fascist than the USSR was. (note fascism is also not simply a synonym for "bad" it has characteristic definition both philosophically and economically)

The Russians are not fighting because they believe everybody should be communist, they're fighting because they've been told nazis are taking over the west. It doesn't help that there are so many pictures of obvious nazi symbolism on people claiming to serve Ukraine.

What Putin believes, knows, and why he attacked is not something I can figure out with public information; but this is not about communism.

The west and NATO countries would welcome a denuclearized Russia after Putin.
This is pure fantasy. The UK didn't trust the USA to be the sole party with nuclear weapons and they were as close allies as you are likely to see. Nobody is going to denuclearize so long as a single battalion can be raised by a possible invader.

It's something to work towards but world peace comes before world disarmament.
#26
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@oromagi
democratic, open for immigration and ideally, itself a member of NATO.
One of these seems a bit out of place.
#27
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@bmdrocks21
Pretty sure Russia is immigrating to east Ukraine.

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
#28
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@Greyparrot
People choosing who governs them and joining a cooperative military alliance seem reasonable to me.

I wouldn’t wish (presumably) Third World immigration like we have onto any country. Just nuke them and make it a quick death.
#29
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@bmdrocks21

Based
#30
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@Swagnarok
This is a very interesting commentary.

Key takeaways:

1:) The Kharkov push was one out of 4 operative fronts. The other fronts are failing badly.
2:) The territory recaptured is 1/40th the size of the territory Russia captured since the start of the war.
3:) Most of the Russians were able to retreat as they deemed the territory to be indefensible and not a high priority.
4:) Russia now has more targets of opportunity for airstrikes as the Ukraine army spreads out over the Kharkov region.
5:) Russia is in the process of targeting all civilian power structures reducing infrastructure by 50%.
6:) Ukraine is about to lose all nuclear power in the region right at the start of winter.
7:) Russia seems poised to escalate the scope of the war from special operations to all out war, opening up more options for attack.

Conclusion? This war isn't over by a long shot. 

And anyone expressing a desire to extend the war into Winter by asking the US government to go further into debt is pure evil knowing it will kill millions of Ukrainians needlessly.