DEMOCRAT takes SEAT HELD BY GOP for the LAST 50 YEARS

Author: oromagi
oromagi
Mary Peltola
Sarah Palin
red wave blues
hold the door hodor

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#61
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@oromagi
think this conversation is encouraging.  Republicans will blame Democrats or RCV or whatever rather than recognize that MAGA is dividing the GOP vote- which should significantly help Democrats in the next two elections.
Alaska has always been historically weird. I think their State House is controlled by a faction of all the democrats, a couple of Indies, and 1-2 Republicans. It’s always had it’s independent streak.

You’re also comparing apples to oranges. With greater turnout, holding % the same, Palin would have won even with Begich exhaustion. 

November will definitely be fun though. I predict 238-197 in House and 52-48 in Senate for GOP
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#62
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@ILikePie5
My b. My point still stands with 20% of Begich voters. If those 20% of Begich voters voted Palin, she would’ve won by 5,000 votes. It’s a problem of RCV that disenfranchises voters.
I think in this particular case, RCV allowed voters to both express their preference and their antipathy towards Palin or MAGA (hard to separate in this case since Palin brings a lot of baggage to the game independent of MAGA).

A smart GOP would use this data to drop Palin, support Begich in November.

Both AOC and Ilhan Omar faced strong moderate opposition during the primaries, I wonder how RCV would have impacted those elections.
#63
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@oromagi
I think in this particular case, RCV allowed voters to both express their preference and their antipathy towards Palin or MAGA (hard to separate in this case since Palin brings a lot of baggage to the game independent of MAGA).
I’d argue it was more towards Palin. 

A smart GOP would use this data to drop Palin, support Begich in November.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if Begich drops out. The ballot exhaustion would not exist for Begich, so voters would be forced to choose between Palin and Peltola. Alaska is weird and RCV is weird

Both AOC and Ilhan Omar faced strong moderate opposition during the primaries, I wonder how RCV would have impacted those elections.

#64
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@ADreamOfLiberty
The fact that you are a champion of ranked choice voting (or so orogami implied) and don't seem familiar this dynamic lends enormous credence to my claim that the average voter did not understand the potential consequences. They probably thought "Oh ranked choice voting means I can vote for who I really want to win and it will all work out", but as I have proved that is not the case.
please explain how the current "primary" system is superior in ANY way
#65
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RCV is unconstitutional.

The rule is “one person one vote”.

RCV allows choice up to 4 choices for every voter.
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#66
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@ILikePie5
You’re also comparing apples to oranges. With greater turnout, holding % the same, Palin would have won even with Begich exhaustion. 
Hmmm, taste that sand, ostrich!

November will definitely be fun though. I predict 238-197 in House and 52-48 in Senate for GOP
Experts say you should ignore everything before labor day.  Right now, all the betting houses predict Dems hold the Senate, lose the House by 10-15 but the momentum has swung crazily toward Democrats in recent weeks.

Think about it, what is the GOP even running on these day? " Hate blacks, hate gays, give Europe to Putin, love Trump". That's it.  They criticize inflation but what's their plan?  Conservatives plans in UK and Brazil are handling inflation far, far worse that the US.

The top issues for voters preserving democracy, abortion, economy, and guns.  Dems dominate three of those issues are rapidly improving on the fourth.  70% of all new voter registrations are women- that bad for GOP.  Turnouts are rivaling record 2018 turnouts- bad for GOP.

By Nov, Trump may very well be under indictment for selling US secrets and running for President in 2024.  I think at this point he has no choice but to run as his best legal argument for slowing down court proceedings.

A lot can happen between now and Nov but it certainly looks possible that MAGA is going to kill the GOP's easy pickup, just as McConnell predicted.

#67
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@3RU7AL
If 58,973 who preferred Palin over Begich put down Begich as their 1st choice (lying as it were)
they should not lie

you can't fault a system

if the voters are lying
Of course I can fault the system, those 58,973 were just punished for not lying.

That's why winner take all single choice always leads to a two party system, anyone who doesn't vote tactically is punished by having their voice ignored. A systemic fault. This form of RCV solves some of that problem, but not all of it as this election shows.


tactical concerns may contradict with honest preference.
explain to me which voting system doesn't have this "problem"
Well to be honest there was a system I saw described once which didn't have that problem; and over time I think I got it confused with RCV; something I only discovered when I was looking at the rounds of this election.

I'm coming up with this on the spot so there may be other flaws:

Same ballot with ranked choices. No eliminations.

If on 1st round 1st rank choices are counted, straight majority = winner declared.
If no winner, 2nd round adds 2nd rank choices to each candidate.
Continue until the last explicit ranked choice is reached or until  a straight majority is reached.

Example:

58,973 people put Palin as 1st,
         58,973 of those put Begich as 2nd.
53,810 people put Begich as 1st,
          27,053 of those put Palin as 2nd,
          15,467 of those put Peltola as 2nd
75,799 people put ONLY Peltola

Round 1:

Palin: 58,973
Begich: 53,810
Peltola: 75,799

Straight Majority Threshold = 94,291 + 1

Round 2:

Palin: 86,026
Begich: 112,783
Peltola: 91,266

Straight Majority Threshold = 145,037 + 1, last ranked choice => Begich Wins
#68
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@Shila
RCV is unconstitutional.

The rule is “one person one vote”.

RCV allows choice up to 4 choices for every voter.
each voter only gets one vote

ONE VOTE

if and only if their candidate is the lowest ranked, AND a "run-off" election WOULD BE REQUIRED PER NORMAL PROCEDURE (because nobody received at least 51% of the total votes cast)

then and only then is the second choice vote, and only the second choice vote is counted for people who voted for the LOWEST RANKED CANDIDATE ONLY

functionally this is exactly the same as a "run-off" election

without the inconvenience of physically driving back out to the polls a second or even a third time
#69
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RCV is unconstitutional.

The rule is “one person one vote”.

RCV allows choice up to 4 choices for every voter.
each voter only gets one vote

ONE VOTE

if and only if their candidate is the lowest ranked, AND a "run-off" election WOULD BE REQUIRED PER NORMAL PROCEDURE (because nobody received at least 51% of the total votes cast)

then and only then is the second choice vote, and only the second choice vote is counted for people who voted for the LOWEST RANKED CANDIDATE ONLY

functionally this is exactly the same as a "run-off" election

without the inconvenience of physically driving back out to the polls a second or even a third time
If your first choice was bad why would anyone think your second choice should be considered?
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#70
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@ILikePie5
Also, the GOP national is out of cash two months before the election.  Democrats have outraised Republicans the last four months running.
#71
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Also, the GOP national is out of cash two months before the election.  Democrats have outraised Republicans the last four months running.
Trump and Bannon has squeezed the republican donors bone dry.

#72
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@Shila
If your first choice was bad why would anyone think your second choice should be considered?
because, it's exactly the same as the "run-off" elections

we already conduct

it is exactly the same, only more efficient, so you don't have to go to the polls twice or three times
#73
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@oromagi
Experts say you should ignore everything before labor day.  Right now, all the betting houses predict Dems hold the Senate, lose the House by 10-15 but the momentum has swung crazily toward Democrats in recent weeks.
Polls before Labor Day are pretty useless. All the major sites and markets run on the polls. I agree with you that it’s a snapshot in time. If the election were help today I would say GOP gains 20 seats and 51-49 GOP Senate.

Think about it, what is the GOP even running on these day? " Hate blacks, hate gays, give Europe to Putin, love Trump". That's it.  They criticize inflation but what's their plan?  Conservatives plans in UK and Brazil are handling inflation far, far worse that the US.
It’s a framing issue. I agree that McCarthy and McConnell aren’t doing their jobs by creating an effective platform for candidates to run on. But it really is effective to talk about the Democratic spending spree which is causing the inflation. Talking about crime and the end to cash bail which people like Fetterman and Barnes likely support.

The top issues for voters preserving democracy, abortion, economy, and guns.  Dems dominate three of those issues are rapidly improving on the fourth.  70% of all new voter registrations are women- that bad for GOP.  Turnouts are rivaling record 2018 turnouts- bad for GOP.
I disagree with you on the top issues. They are and are going going to be Inflation/Economy, Abortion, Crime, come Election Day. Where are the 70% coming from? California? New York? 

By Nov, Trump may very well be under indictment for selling US secrets and running for President in 2024.  I think at this point he has no choice but to run as his best legal argument for slowing down court proceedings.
He’s going to announce after Election Day. But it’s really funny to see the political attacks on Trump. You and I both know he’s an anomaly. Everyone thought Access Hollywood would end him. He’d win against Biden

A lot can happen between now and Nov but it certainly looks possible that MAGA is going to kill the GOP's easy pickup, just as McConnell predicted.
What’s the cause of MAGA though? What led to a Donald Trump victory? Establishment Republicans like McConnell and Paul Ryan created Donald Trump by not upholding their promises to voters. Just a month ago we saw 10 Republicans cave on guns. Trump won because of his rhetoric. He acted and campaigned like a fighter. That’s what the people like me want. My leftist government Professor always asks why people are choosing MAGA over establishment Republicans. If you asked me, I’d tell you exactly why: establishment Republicans cave on every issue to the Democrats. Who’s the reason why McConnell may not win the Senate? Mitch McConnell
#74
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@oromagi
Also, the GOP national is out of cash two months before the election.  Democrats have outraised Republicans the last four months running.
Money doesn’t mean as much as you think. Beto O’Rourke had over 100 million, which was a record at the time I think. He had a D+8 environment. He was running against Ted Cruz, who no one likes. He still lost by 3 points. Take a look at Jaime Harrison or Amy McGrath in 2020. 

Party polarization is something money cannot overcome
#75
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New AD tells Trump supporters they are being scammed.
#76
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@Shila
New AD tells Trump supporters they are being scammed.
At least Trump can talk properly.

It’s a running theme among Dems to put up people who shouldn’t be running. Joe Biden, John Fetterman, etc
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#77
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@ILikePie5
It's a good point that new voter registrations might be a misleading statistic if we don't look by districts.

I know registered women in Kansas surged right before that abortion vote but I don't know the district breakdown of that 70%.

No good pollster would ask this question right now, but the bad pollsters are asking "Biden vs. Trump" and if the election were held today, they claim Biden would win by 6 points.

Generic democrat in Congress has gone from -4 points two months ago to +4- an 8 point swing in  two months, just two months before the election. 
#78
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New AD tells Trump supporters they are being scammed.
At least Trump can talk properly.

It’s a running 
Biden was a senator for 36 years. He was Obamas Vice President for 8 years.

A LEADER IN THE SENATE

As a Senator from Delaware for 36 years, President Biden established himself as a leader in facing some of our nation’s most important domestic and international challenges. As Chairman or Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee for 16 years, Biden is widely recognized for his work writing and spearheading the Violence Against Women Act  — the landmark legislation that strengthens penalties for violence against women, creates unprecedented resources for survivors of assault, and changes the national dialogue on domestic and sexual assault.

As Chairman or Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 12 years, Biden played a pivotal role in shaping U.S. foreign policy. He was at the forefront of issues and legislation related to terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, post-Cold War Europe, the Middle East, Southwest Asia, and ending apartheid.


Trump filed 6 bankruptcies and is being investigated for tax fraud, was twice impeached in his first term as president. Trump is investigated for obstruction of Justice,  the Jan 6 committee is investigating Trump’s role in the capitol building  riots to overthrow the election results. Now he is investigated for stealing high security confidential material from the National Archives. 
He might be the first president to go to jail as a criminal.

#79
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@ILikePie5
False. Runoffs are completely separate elections
RCV is also called "instant run-off"

it's exactly the same as a "run-off"

except you don't have to drive to the polls twice

exactly the same

IF you can vote twice for the same office on different days (inarunoff)

THEN you can vote twice for the same office on the same day (RCV)
#80
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@Shila
If your first choice was bad why would anyone think your second choice should be considered?
it only counts if there is no first round winner

just like a "run-off" election
#81
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If your first choice was bad why would anyone think your second choice should be considered?
it only counts if there is no first round winner

just like a "run-off" election
If you pick all four choices as the same (choice one). Then any which way you count is the winner will be choice one.

#82
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@oromagi
It's a good point that new voter registrations might be a misleading statistic if we don't look by districts.

I know registered women in Kansas surged right before that abortion vote but I don't know the district breakdown of that 70%.
You’d be surprised how many Republican men and women voted for the abortion amendment in Kansas. They’re not going to be voting Democrat though. How big of an impact could newly registered women have? A big one. The key is coming out to vote though. Young people are disillusioned with Biden. African Americans aren’t as active during midterms. It really depends. I’ve done an Excel model of Nevada using 2020 numbers but probably 2022 turnout. You can shift demographics around by %. Holding everything equal, if Dems win Hispanics only by 14% (poll showing this) from their previous 30%, GOP wins by about 4. It’s really interesting and fun to mess with.

No good pollster would ask this question right now, but the bad pollsters are asking "Biden vs. Trump" and if the election were held today, they claim Biden would win by 6 points.
Nationally? Maybe. In terms of states and the EC, I don’t think so. As always, polls are a snapshot in time. Like a Balance Sheet. We’re more interested in the Income Statement

Generic democrat in Congress has gone from -4 points two months ago to +4- an 8 point swing in  two months, just two months before the election.  
Not really. RCP average right now is D+0.5 with the average at 44/44. Before, the Democrat number was lower. Around 40ish on average with GOP still around 44-45. Why did the Dem number go up? Because Democrats came home like they always were going to in both Biden approvals and Generic Ballot. My personal hypothesis is the nation is 45-45 GOP/Dem. The 10% will decide the vote. They are overwhelmingly independent and overwhelmingly disapprove of Joe Biden. We’ll see how they break in November. Going with trends, they break hard for the GOP. Just my personal take
#83
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@Shila
Biden was a senator for 36 years. He was Obamas Vice President for 8 years.

A LEADER IN THE SENATE
Irrelevant. He’s President now and cannot even talk properly. The Russians invaded Ukraine under his watch. The Border is being flooded under his watch. Inflation has reached a historic high under his watch.

As a Senator from Delaware for 36 years, President Biden established himself as a leader in facing some of our nation’s most important domestic and international challenges. As Chairman or Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee for 16 years, Biden is widely recognized for his work writing and spearheading the Violence Against Women Act  — the landmark legislation that strengthens penalties for violence against women, creates unprecedented resources for survivors of assault, and changes the national dialogue on domestic and sexual assault.
How many Republicans voted for that bill? Convenient of you to leave that out. Also, Joe didn’t even sponsor the bill. He was just on the committee that approved it lol. Wow

As Chairman or Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 12 years, Biden played a pivotal role in shaping U.S. foreign policy. He was at the forefront of issues and legislation related to terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, post-Cold War Europe, the Middle East, Southwest Asia, and ending apartheid
And yet it was Barack Obama who said to not underestimate Joe Bidens ability to f things up. Did you know Biden was the only one against the Bin Laden Raid. Foreign policy has been a disaster under Joe Biden. The Russians are emboldened. Chinese are making moves against China. Iranians are doing whatever they want. Biden allies with terrorist have Pakistan over India. Give me a break.

Trump filed 6 bankruptcies
Another uninformed individual touting this. Corporate bankruptcies are common. Even Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have had corporate bankruptcies. Believe it or not, most business fail. Yet Trump still has an empire and has never declared personal bankruptcy. Try again.

and is being investigated for tax fraud,
By who? Letitia James? The political hack who literally ran on the campaign of politically persecuting Trump. We’ve been hearing about Trump’s tax returns for 7 years now. Still crickets. I wonder why lol.

was twice impeached in his first term as president.
Twice acquitted as well because Democrats are idiots lol. Trump’s approval rating rose during impeachment.

Trump is investigated for obstruction of Justice,  
Mueller report found no collusion. No recommendation on obstruction either. Try again.

the Jan 6 committee is investigating Trump’s role in the capitol building  riots to overthrow the election results.
Newsflash, Americans don’t care. J6 committee is a sham anyways with zero cross examination and testimony that is obviously false lol.

Now he is investigated for stealing high security confidential material from the National Archives. 
As President, he had the authority to declassify and make copies of any records he sees fit. He also had the authority to keep them with private notes.

He might be the first president to go to jail as a criminal.
Keep dreaming. We’ve been hearing that for 7 years now
#84
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@3RU7AL
RCV is also called "instant run-off"

it's exactly the same as a "run-off"
No it’s not. Run offs have a separate election process after a certain time period. Two separate elections.

except you don't have to drive to the polls twice

exactly the same

IF you can vote twice for the same office on different days (inarunoff)

THEN you can vote twice for the same office on the same day (RCV)
No. There’s two separate elections with run off system. A voter Can make an informed choice after someone has been eliminated for sure. With RCV you cannot make an informed decision based on who has been eliminated. Only a guess.

I can’t believe you think RCV and Runoffs are the same thing. I’m not against RCV. I’m against ballot exhaustion. Because your vote does not count at all. In fact it disenfranchises those who would come and vote in the runoff.
#85
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@ILikePie5
No. There’s two separate elections with run off system. A voter Can make an informed choice after someone has been eliminated for sure. With RCV you cannot make an informed decision based on who has been eliminated. Only a guess.
This is correct, but like I said there should theoretically be a system that allows a voter's full relative preferences to be expressed without the need to consider tactics.
#86
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@Shila
If you pick all four choices as the same (choice one). Then any which way you count is the winner will be choice one.
that's not even close to how this works
#87
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@ADreamOfLiberty
This is correct, but like I said there should theoretically be a system that allows a voter's full relative preferences to be expressed without the need to consider tactics.
there are plurality voting systems that elect based on the least disliked candidate

one example would be a vote where your first choice would get 5 points per vote

and your second choice would get 4 points per vote

and your third choice would get 3 points per vote, and so on

ALL of the point are totalled on the first count

and the candidate with the highest total points wins
#88
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@ILikePie5
No it’s not. Run offs have a separate election process after a certain time period. Two separate elections.
by design, only the candidate with the lowest vote total is eliminated and their votes move to "second choice"

it seems insane to make EVERYONE take time off of work and schedule volunteer poll workers and coordinate an entire second or third election

when only maybe 4 or 5% of the voters (or less) need to "revote"

everyone else's vote goes to their FIRST CHOICE, and why would anyone change their FIRST CHOICE in a "run-off" (unless they KNEW their candidate was in last place) ?
#89
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@ILikePie5
I can’t believe you think RCV and Runoffs are the same thing. I’m not against RCV. I’m against ballot exhaustion. Because your vote does not count at all. In fact it disenfranchises those who would come and vote in the runoff.
turn-out for a "run-off" election is ALWAYS lower than the FIRST election

with this in mind, a "run-off" election DISENFRANCHISES MORE VOTERS BECAUSE ALL OF THE VOTES FROM THE FIRST ELECTION ARE TOSSED OUT
#90
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@ILikePie5
I can’t believe you think RCV and Runoffs are the same thing. I’m not against RCV. I’m against ballot exhaustion. Because your vote does not count at all. In fact it disenfranchises those who would come and vote in the runoff.
The only way for them to be comparable is to enforce RCV voters to make choices instead of voting one person. Tell them that 1 choice will result in a null ballot.

Many countries have stricter laws compelling every citizen to vote.