Gasp Prices and Inflation

Author: Double_R

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#1
Double_R
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Since gas prices and inflation are constant whataboutisms to almost every right winger when faced with damming facts about why Trump and the GOP should not be in control, I figure there should be a sperate thread on it.

To anyone claiming these are proof that voting for Biden and the democrats was the wrong move please answer the following:

1. Since these are both global issues, is Biden responsible for the issues world wide?

2. What exactly did Biden do to cause these? (Be specific and explain the actual impact)

3. What would Trump have done to prevent these should be have won in 2020? (Be specific and explain the actual impact)
#2
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@Double_R
I'm on right to a degree. I would vote for Trump or DeSantis instead of Biden.

1.  Biden is not responsible for inflation caused from places like Ukraine and Russia. The war in Europe has put a lot of inflation on natural gas, fertilizer and oil prices.

2.  When Biden went into office, he immediately suspended new land leases on oil and natural gas. He also shutdown the keystone oil pipeline. These earlier policies in office stopped oil and natural gas prices from going down or stabilizing. Therefore, he increased inflationary prices relatively to where they would of been without intervention. 

In addition, If the United States had more natural gas and oil production, this would of decreased domestic inflation and curbed potentially global inflation. With cheaper natural gas prices, the United States could of exported more to Europe and reduced the global energy costs and fertilizer shortages.

3. Gas prices would of gone up to lesser degree under Trump. I don't think he could of halted oil inflation because the economy's demand for oil was surging upwards as it was recovering from Covid lockdowns, but it would of have been better under Trump. Obviously, Trump would never have halted oil and natural gas leases if he was re-elected into office in 2020.




#3
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@Double_R

1. No

2. Nothing

3. Nothing
#4
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@FLRW
Putin's people only have to pay 3.18 for gas.
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@ILikePie5
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The world burns in nearly all possible ways that it can, and the best you can do is argue that the guy in charge isn't responsible because it's out of his hands?  

I have known you since Barack Obama was in office.  And I recall what you have laid at each presidents' feet since then, and before going back to W's earliest days since 9/11.  

Is this seriously the best argument you can make?  Should the focus really be one of incessant excuses for why the world is burning on Biden's watch, and there's just nothing he could do?  

It's been a long, long time commin' but I know . . .  . A change gonn' come.  Oh, yes it will.  And this is why.
#7
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@Greyparrot
Putin's people have got a lot of gas.
#8
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Relevant. 
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#9
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@coal
Is this seriously the best argument you can make?  Should the focus really be one of incessant excuses for why the world is burning on Biden's watch, and there's just nothing he could do?  
I have made no argument so as usual, you are arguing with a figment of your imagination.

Biden either is or isn't reasponsible for gas prices and inflation. Whether he is or isn't is not an argument, it's a matter of fact. What we do with that fact is an entirely different question.

Funny how I started a thread on the January 6th hearings and all the Trumpers wanted to talk about was gas prices and inflation, so I create a thread on gas prices and inflation and they all vanish. Suddenly they're not interested. I wonder why.

Do you have any thoughts on the topic?
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#10
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@CoolApe
He also shutdown the keystone oil pipeline.
Keystone is a transfer pipeline, not a means of production and it wasn't even set to be completed till 2023.

Gas prices would of gone up to lesser degree under Trump. I don't think he could of halted oil inflation because the economy's demand for oil was surging upwards as it was recovering from Covid lockdowns, but it would of have been better under Trump. Obviously, Trump would never have halted oil and natural gas leases if he was re-elected into office in 2020.
What evidence do you have that this would have made any noticable difference?

#11
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@coal

Relevant. 


#12
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They say you cannot blame a president for gas prices. But when the president’s executive order shuts down a gas pipeline and ends a lease in Alaska for drilling, adds unreasonable NEPA regulations, and then sours foreign relations with every global oil supplier, Id say you can blame the president.


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#13
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@Greyparrot
Can you provide some actual evidence that any of the things you listed made a noticable difference? Cause it sounds like you are just parroting talking points you heard on Fox news with no idea what you're talking about.
#14
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@Double_R
Here is the evidence:


All 4 of those things I mentioned reduce the supply of oil. Next?
#15
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@Double_R
Keystone is a transfer pipeline, not a means of production and it wasn't even set to be completed till 2023.
And this is why we are in an age of BareshelvesBiden because retards think available supply can exist without feasible low-cost distribution.
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@Double_R
Can you provide some actual evidence that any of the things you listed made a noticable difference? Cause it sounds like you are just parroting talking points you heard on Fox news with no idea what you're talking about.
Sounds like you are accusing Biden of not knowing what he was talking about when he promised to lower the supply of oil, phase it out, and make it expensive. It was a literal campaign promise.

Then:

And Now: "a planned incredible transition"
#17
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I guess Double R thinks Biden was an idiot for doing this too.


#18
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@coal
Is this seriously the best argument you can make?  Should the focus really be one of incessant excuses for why the world is burning on Biden's watch, and there's just nothing he could do?  
Biden did promise that he could do something about oil, namely phase it out. Either DoubleR thinks Biden is lying or DoubleR is lying.
#19
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@Double_R
My thoughts:

First (admittedly a bit of an oversimplification, as it excludes regulatory costs), both supply and demand determine price. To my knowledge, there hasn't been a 100% increase in demand for gas from Jan. 2021 to the present, so supply must be a cause of inflated gas prices.

Second, the Biden Administration shuttered the Keystone XL Pipeline and recently canceled federal leases to drill in the Gulf of Mexico and ANWR (basically Alaska). The administration changed environmental regulations for drilling so as to put less emphasis on the needs of the fossil fuel industry, which probably blocked new drilling and pipelines in other parts of the country.

Third, while rules restricting future drilling probably wouldn't have a huge impact on current supply, the gas market is, as the Senator Kennedy recently quipped on the Senate floor, "forward-looking". Anticipating future difficulties might contribute to jacking up prices in the present.

Fourth, at the time when Trump left office gasoline prices were, adjusted for inflation, actually rather low, lower even in non-adjusted dollars than it stood at certain points as early as 2006. Additionally, from Jan. 2017 to Jan. 2021 prices did not increase at all. The pandemic had been in full swing for about a year and in fact prices were higher in Feb. 2020, so that couldn't have been the cause.

Fifth, when new American drilling tampers off, it arguably signals to foreign suppliers like OPEC that America is no longer a serious competitor, which might embolden them to raise prices.

Sixth, though Putin's war in Ukraine is surely a major cause, about 50% of the increase from Jan. 2021 had already happened by Feb. 24. That suggests there was more than one cause.

Seventh, the Biden Administration failed to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. There were signs of a pending Russian invasion as early as April of last year, giving the administration about 10 months to come up with an actionable plan, but it did not. While obviously Putin is the only one who pulled the trigger, the whole situation doesn't paint the current White House in a very competent light.

Eighth, the logistics of manufacturing goods and getting them to where they need to go is fuel-intensive. Certain goods, such as cosmetics, plastics, etc., directly require fossil fuels to produce. A rise in the price of gas would trickle down to other sectors of the economy.
#20
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@Greyparrot
Biden did promise that he could do something about oil, namely phase it out
Rising gas prices aren’t a bug in Biden’s energy policy; they’re a feature.

#21
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@Double_R
I have made no argument so as usual, you are arguing with a figment of your imagination.
It turns out that the buck stops with the guy at the top.  So, the default assumption is that if you're in charge, you're responsible for what happens on your watch.  Your OP contends: (1) there are problems on Biden's watch, yet (2) the burden of proof for causation is somehow on those who claim he is responsible for things that occur on his watch.  Further, you OP inquires what Biden's alternative might have done, implicitly contending (3) these events were inevitable (i.e., not the result of Biden's doing).  

Biden either is or isn't [responsible] for gas prices and inflation.  Whether he is or isn't is not an argument, it's a matter of fact.
Responsibility is not that simple.  In a complex government, economy and public/private interplay, numerous stakeholders bear overlapping levels of responsibility for macro-level outcomes.  Lean into the complexity to understand causation, but realize the buck still stops with the guy in charge.  

Funny how I started a thread on the January 6th hearings and all the Trumpers wanted to talk about was gas prices and inflation, so I create a thread on gas prices and inflation and they all vanish. Suddenly they're not interested. I wonder why.
I don't care why.  What happened on January 6th was regretful, but it is a far cry from the fiasco as portrayed in the media.  Assigning blame for the fiction created by democrats in the media is beneath futility. 

Do you have any thoughts on the topic?
Yes.  And I suppose we (the forum, collectively, not just you and I) aren't going to get to those items because I haven't seen anyone touch on them yet.  Disappointing. 

In any case . . . 

  • Domestic policy.  Biden is singularly responsible for setting the legislative agenda, as the head of his political party (or figurehead, as it may be). 
    • "Green New Deal."  The legislative agenda's top priority is a so called "Green New Deal."  Numerous aspects of the so called "Green New Deal" impact gas prices, directly and indirectly. 
      • Directly, the "Green New Deal" reduces supply.  For example, when Biden delayed decisions on new oil and gas drilling on federal land and other energy-related actions, including indefinitely delaying planned oil and gas lease sales on public lands in a half-dozen states in the West, including Wyoming, Montana and Utah, that clearly signalled to the market that less oil would be domestically produced.  Biden has done the same thing for offshore drilling.  And that is one example of many such actions that have acutely undermined the domestic supply, and anticipated future supply, of petrochemical resources (e.g., Biden's idiocy over Keystone). 
      • Indirectly, the "Green New Deal" signals the end of robust federal support for domestic drilling.  The American oil industry is very heavily subsidized, often to the extent that most investment in expanded drilling capacity amounts to a low or no-risk proposition.  The Green New Deal guts the support the oil industry has received since forever, that it has always relied on.  With these developments, expanded oil production capacity is almost totally off the table.  Even if expansion was possible, capital markets are a disaster right now and no one can get financing. 
        • So, even if a company wanted to bet against political trends and expand, for example, offshore drilling in Alaska, managed somehow (despite the Biden Administration's best efforts) to secure new leases on federal lands and actually managed approval through the process despite the Green New Deal's new regulatory throttling, they still probably couldn't even get funding at rates that are commercially acceptable.
        • You've got to consider this five, ten or twenty years down the road.  There is a concept called "peak oil."  "Peak oil" is when we have produced the most oil we ever will.  After that time, oil production declines as the world transitions to an alternative energy replacement (whatever that might be, remains to be seen).  We probably hit peak oil in 2019, assuming Biden's "green" bullshit isn't reversed by the next administration, because of how prematurely Biden's incompetent advisors moved.  
      • Often, these harms manifest in other bizarre ways.  For example, Biden's Department of the Interior conginues to "reform" oil and gas leases throughout the United States, based on its purported commitment to "ensure" that such leases "account for climate impacts."  Basically, interior is trying to strap a present-day excise on drilling rights (i.e., money that has to be paid to pump oil out of the ground, because of the hypothesized "climate impact" of doing so).  This is the stupidest thing any administration has ever done, and even Obama opposed it because he, aside from recognizing its stupidity, realized the harm it would cause as those costs radiated throughout the economy as a whole.  Despite this known risks, the Biden Administration and congressional democrats have pushed through this ridiculous excise policy that is going to artificially increase the cost of oil production.  Wanna guess who will pay for it?  Consumers, of course.  All of this tells speculators that the domestic supply of oil is going to be acutely reduced, yet we have not and will not in any near term move to a world where there's something like any kind of viable alternative.  Demand is going to remain. That just means everything --- and I mean literally, everything --- is going to cost more to produce, because oil prices are at the bottom of all of it. 
    • Economic policy.  Biden is responsible for the country's economic policy.  Period.  There are so many aspects to this I don't have time to list them all in appropriate detail.  But here's something to keep in mind . . . . 
      • Oil is --- or was, before Joe Biden --- bought and sold only in United States Dollars.  The dollar is a commodity-backed fiat currency, more or less.  This means that the United States has a competitive advantage in purchasing oil internationally, to the extent it cannot meet its domestic needs (however close we got under Obama and Trump).  
      • However, that competitive advantage is lost when the dollar's strength relative to other global currencies declines.  As you may be aware, the dollar's purchasing power relative to other currencies --- even to the extent inflated by global COVID idiocy --- has declined acutely.  We are talking like 7% inflation, which is mortifying.  And it's probably worse than that.  So, when oil is bought on international markets, all of that means it costs more American currency than it did before.  That means consumers pay a higher price at the pump.
  • Foreign policy.  Biden is singularly responsible for setting American foreign policy, as the "sole organ" thereof, commander in chief and all that jazz.  Biden's foreign policy has been catastrophic for oil at numerous levels, a handful of which I'll discuss below.
    • Ukraine.  With the possible exception of the OPEC embargo in the 1970s, Ukraine has been the most singularly catastrophic geopolitical development for world energy markets.  The reasons why are obvious.  Russia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and it exercises control over numerous major stakeholders which themselves have tremendous market influence.  Iran is the figure that you should be thinking about, there.   Together, they can drive the global price of oil to a very considerable extent --- and they have, with incredible force since Biden failed to prevent Putin's invasion of that country.  
      • To be clear, Biden is not the only president who failed to check Russian aggression.  Fault for that predates him by multiple administrations, from Bush, to Obama to Trump, and now Biden.  But Biden made the same mistake as his three recent predecessors, albeit to an even more egregious degree.  When Russia stacked 100k and then nearly 200k troops on Ukraine's border on all sides, the best he could do is send Antony Blinken to threaten economic sanctions.  Mark Milley was too busy being a pathetic gimp.
      • Biden's failure to defend Ukraine militarily was a green light to invasion.  Which is exactly what happened.  That alone would have been sufficient to disrupt global oil supply, and acutely drive up gas prices.  But insead, Biden had the brilliant idea to kick Russia off of SWIFT, and otherwise segregate that country from the world financial system.  Turns out that when you kick one of the world's largest oil producers off the world's banking regime, that disrupts oil markets, resulting in higher prices.  Shocker.
      • But the harm to American gas prices did not end there.  When Biden sanctioned Russia, Russia and other countries started trading in currencies that were NOT THE DOLLAR, which further (and will continue to erode) the United States' advantage in global energy markets overall.  For some reason, Biden's people missed that elephant in the room.
    • Saudi Arabia.  When Obama played economic warfare on Iran, Venezuela and Russia by flooding global markets with American domestically produced crude, at the same time he sweet-talked the Saudis into a race to the bottom.  It was brilliant.  Knee-capped Iran, Venezuela and Russia, all at once.  The Saudis ramped up production, American drillers were fracking like never before and oil flowed from Canada's tar sands like water over Niagara Falls.  Good.  Times.  That destroyed the economies of Iran, Venezuela and Russia, because the per-barrel price bottomed out to such an extent that those countries could not even make a profit pumping it out of the ground.  Biden did basically the opposite.  He passed a so called "Green New Deal," while allowing a war to foment in Iran and managing to piss off the Saudis whose response to Biden's current efforts to increase global supplies amount to no more than "Get fucked."  So we're not getting any help there.  
Overall, the sum of these things approaches levels of irresponsibility and reckless stupidity never seen before.

This is what happens when complete fucking idiots are making decisions.  

And we are only seeing the beginning.  

It will get worse.  Far worse. 








#22
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@Double_R
Pipelines do make a difference. Oil suppliers can take advantage of more efficient infrastructure to transport oil. However, I concede that the immediate inflation is not caused by Biden's policies. 

However, the democratic party's policies will cause inflation in the short to long run. The recent Fossil Free Finance Act, land leasing constraints and amongst other things will negatively impact the oil industry and inevitably shrink it in the United States. The left wants environmental change too rapidly and its going undermine the economy's ability to change. People can't transition away from fossil fuels completely or quickly right now. Only a miraculous technological breakthrough in clean energy will allow us to do that. Hurting the economy in the meanwhile (close future) is not going to bring us any closer to developing abundant cheap, clean energy. However, if we maintain a strong economy, then new technologies will likely emerge to curb emissions. Look at the advent of completely electric vehicles for instance.

#23
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@Double_R
Keystone is a transfer pipeline, not a means of production and it wasn't even set to be completed till 2023.
You clearly don’t know how the oil market works. It runs on futures. As soon as Biden got into office everyone knows the costs to transport that oil will increase. To recoop the losses they would face, they have to increase the prices now.

What evidence do you have that this would have made any noticable difference?
Supply and Demand? Don’t decrease supply and prices won’t go high. Basic economics really 
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@ILikePie5
Pipelines do make a difference. Oil suppliers can take advantage of more efficient infrastructure to transport oil. However, I concede that the immediate inflation is not caused by Biden's policies. 
Energy is a speculative market, not a linear market. Immediate Prices reflect future supply uncertainty, not present stockpiles.
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@ILikePie5
You clearly don’t know how the oil market works. It runs on futures.
Dammit, too many finance nerds in this thread.
#26
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@CoolApe
Only a miraculous technological breakthrough in clean energy will allow us to do that.
The same forces that hinder fossil energy will inevitably also hinder clean energy. Government has no clue how to create clean energy.
#27
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Dammit, too many finance nerds in this thread.
I’m a finance major :)
#28
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I am still willing to bet Double R knows more about Oil Futures than Biden.
#29
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@ILikePie5
Energy is a speculative market, not a linear market. Immediate Prices reflect future supply uncertainty, not present stockpiles.
Correct.  You and Pie have both made worthwhile contributions on this topic.
#30
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@Greyparrot
Energy is a speculative market, not a linear market. Immediate Prices reflect future supply uncertainty, not present stockpiles.
Do you think oil producers are speculating right now on oil prices? They're probably capturing the peak prices right now with the Russia-Ukrainian war going on.

Prices leading up to the Ukrainian-Russian war may of been in part caused by long-term supply speculation of oil producers anticipating less oil supply and higher oil prices due to Biden's policies. I am not sure how much it would increase the price of oil. First, American oil companies have oversees competitors without Biden's restrictions which would keep the price of oil down. Second, Oil companies might not anticipate Biden's policies to stay in effect after his term. It would really depend on how oil suppliers thought Biden's policies would increase the price of oil in the future and if it was worth restricting current production to capture future profits. Since foreign oil supply could increase and Biden may not be elected next term, oil companies might not want to restrict supply at all.