I actually agree 100% with Double_R here. All the people who think DeSantis has a chance usually have one or more of the following three characteristics:
- Were party loyalists to the pre-Trump GOP
- Tied in to suburban culture
- Tied to Florida
What all of these people fail to realize is that the blue wall fell in 2016 because Trump drew independents and blue dog voters, and he did it through force of personality and a unique political package. DeSantis is a competent guy with decent political instincts, but he's following tracks that Trump laid down and does not have the force of personality required to replicate Trump's fervent support, especially in the rust belt. People in this group LOVED the way the Trump trashed the Bush legacy and trashed half the GOP candidates while thoroughly domesticating the other half, because they HATE the old 'gosh gee willikers, I'm an old fashioned guy, lets ship your jobs to China, send your kids to Iraq, and deregulate Wall Street' GOP. People who liked that GOP and see Trump as nothing more than a rebranding catalyst do not have a firm grasp on what Trump actually did to the party. Trump earned these voters' loyalty by bloodying that beast's nose in a very public way. DeSantis has not done this, and he likely will not do it. Suburban people heavily overestimate how much Trump's 'tweeting' and 'grotesque mannerisms' hurt him at the polls, because they live in a very gentile and isolated bubble that doesn't represent how the rest of the country talks about and to one another. I think many of them also are coping on a personal level - they're tired of having to defend Trump's uncouth behavior at cocktail parties and will lie to themselves about the real political situation in hopes of getting someone who shares their gentile mannerisms, someone who won't cause personal social friction for them. Floridians overestimate the damage the this split would cause because DeSantis has his strongest following there.
In reality it would be horrible for the GOP if DeSantis tried to primary Trump mostly because DeSantis is the first choice for Trump's successor in 2028. I know huge amounts of people up here who would gladly vote for DeSantis if Trump wouldn't run, but who would look very, very dimly on him turning on Trump after Trump pretty much annointed him - DeSantis already has a charisma deficiency, this would make him seem like a backstabbing rat to a huge portion of Trump's base and would actually fracture the populist movement in the US and severely weaken it, possibly even killing it in its cradle. It's a bad move on every level. If DeSantis simply waits for four more years he could become the 'Donald-Approved' heir and inherit the goodwill of the entire movement. By trying to cut in line there's a good chance that he completely destroys it.