The Political Consequences of Low Birthrates

Am I just autistic or is this stuff extremely fascinating? 

I think humans are very attracted to doomsday ideas, we've just got it in our bones. So maybe things never turn out as badly as we imagine, but. 

I honestly think thett is one of the best people in the entire world. 

I honestly think thett is one of the best people in the entire world. 

Interesting! Add to wildcards Muslims as well, maybe Hindus too. It's sad how by the onset of the 20th century, Whites constituted almost 40% the global population -that's China & India combined, with a global majority of urban population. Yet, in a couple of decades they won't even amount to 10%, & even less further into the future. Then, there were 6-7 times more Whites than Blacks, by 2070 the ratio will literally reverse. All thanks to the great & magnificent Western Values. 

- Interesting! Add to wildcards Muslims as well, maybe Hindus too. It's sad how by the onset of the 20th century, Whites constituted almost 40% the global population -that's China & India combined, with a global majority of urban population. Yet, in a couple of decades they won't even amount to 10%, & even less further into the future. Then, there were 6-7 times more Whites than Blacks, by 2070 the ratio will literally reverse. All thanks to the great & magnificent Western Values. 

Yeah I didn’t want to go there because it does seem like TFR’s are falling everywhere, including in the Islamic world and Africa, but clearly any society that manages to hold onto a decent birth rate is going to have a huge advantage in the future. Right now I have my eyes on Central Asia, especially the “Stans”. Kazakhstan bottomed out at 1.8 twenty years ago and is now back  to 2.9….hard to see that happening in a western country 

I do think you are onto something with the highlighted bit. Fertility rates crashed in Latin America almost on a dime once smart phones (and therefore social media) became affordable. And my pet theory is that some of the countries with the worst fertility rates are ones that have huge amounts of western influence but also vestiges of traditional culture. For example,  in South Korea there is feminism, women are doing just as well as men economically etc, but the man/his family is still expected to provide the house when there’s a marriage. No wonder people are having difficulty starting families 

Another aspect of this people don’t think about it warfare. I know there have been relatively few wars in the past decades due to Pax Americana but that’s going to eventually end at SOME point. I know there will be further increases in technology, robots, drones, etc but fighting men being totally obsolete is a “I’ll believe it when I see it” thing for me 

A society with low birth rates would get rolled by one with high birth rates. Pretty much no matter how the war is going, there’s going to be massive political pressure to sue for peace pretty much immediately when you have tons of families with four grandparents, two parents, and one son losing their progeny

Not everyone having children in red states are white conservatives (in the south especially many are minorities) and not all children from conservative households stay that way so I don't think this portends a long term and inevitable conservative dominance. But I think it is still a socially/politically relevant fact that white liberals seem to be going the way of the dodo bird, genetically speaking. If this groups wants to continue to hold onto its share it must do so through conversion.

- That hit the nail on the head. Europeans were successful in colonizing much of the World largely owing to population size. Europe experienced an unprecedented & interrupted population explosion in the 18th & 19th century. In fact, up to early or mid 18th century, the Ottoman Empire was on a stalemate with European powers, boasting a comparable GDP to the rest of Europe combined, & -along with vassal states- also a similar population. By the 19th century, however, single European countries (such as France, Germany, UK...) had each a larger population than the entire Ottoman Empire. Contest became untenable. This is exactly what is happening to the Western world. Today, the Muslim world has more than twice the population of the West, & 4 times by 2060. The only conceivable way the West could retain back their population in the future is if they purge the Liberal virus & go back to faith.

But that conversation is natural, so I don’t think this is at all concerning from a left wing perspective. Conservatism is by definition about conserving the past, future generations have no interest in that which is why younger voters tend to be far more liberal than their parents.

Another factor here is the urban rural divide, which is a far bigger indicator of how a population will view  political issues. So unless cities dwindle in population while rural areas boom, I wouldn’t expect anything to change there either. In fact a population boom in rural areas would only make them see things more like their liberal counterparts.

I don’t find any of this surprising though when you look at it, the less dense a population then less there is to do. If I lived in the middle of no where (no offense to anyone living in rural America) I would probably have lots of babies too. Plus it’s so much cheaper as you mentioned that it just makes sense.

Overall this may bring some hard times for future generations economically, but is ultimately good for the species and the earth. There are too many people on this planet and resources are already stretching too thin. Only 1% of the earths water is drinkable and towns around the world are starting to run out. Treating salt water is expensive, so the price of everything will skyrocket. We are quite possibly living in the most preposterous time in human history.

Another aspect of this people don’t think about it warfare. I know there have been relatively few wars in the past decades due to Pax Americana but that’s going to eventually end at SOME point. I know there will be further increases in technology, robots, drones, etc but fighting men being totally obsolete is a “I’ll believe it when I see it” thing for me 

A society with low birth rates would get rolled by one with high birth rates. Pretty much no matter how the war is going, there’s going to be massive political pressure to sue for peace pretty much immediately when you have tons of families with four grandparents, two parents, and one son losing their progeny. Even if wars of the future are fought with robots and drones and technology the last time industrialized economies went toe to toe it didn’t take long before they were indiscriminately killing each other’s civilians, so the same pressures would apply whether people are dying on the battlefields or in bombings 

This is actually probably why China hasn't started any hot wars yet - the one child policy lead to what the Chinese call 'princeling syndrome': their conventional forces have a huge handicap because all the soldiers that they have are both solely financially responsible for all of their living ancestors and their family's only hope for an enduring legacy. In military engagements, these soldiers are incredibly risk averse, trying to return alive at all costs, which is horrible for military competence. The government is rolling back that policy rapidly, trying to encourage stay-at-home moms and ramp fertility up exponentially. Over 80% of Chinese GenZ moms are staying at home, which is a huge increase. I think that once the new generation comes of age you're going to see China become much more aggressive on the world stage. 

- I don't see that as a handicap at all.

No matter the case, China has double the population of the entire West combined. 10 times more militarily eligible persons than the US.

The reason why China is not acting aggressively against the US yet, is because the latter has huge leverage controlling maritime trade & crucial straits. China must secure its energy supply -from the Middle East & Central Asia- outside of US naval reach, secure its material resources from Africa & Australia, by establishing new maritime & land trade network circumventing US bases, & also secure their export markets in Europe & elsewhere, again without the US. Only then, will China feel comfortable enough to say "f you".

They take the idea of familial legacy to extremes, and I say that being generally favorable to the idea. It's absolutely a problem in the military if you can't count on you men to act in a way that puts them in severe danger.