An extremely interesting and highly data driven study just dropped, and I think the findings will be highly useful to all young people on this site and elsewhere. In some sense it confirms what we all already knew, or expected, but it's still worth a look. The data is so comprehensive that you can literally search each institution and the specific majors they offer to see median salary outcomes, and return on investment relative to the median costs over a lifetime. Not all majors are present (mine wasn't), probably because some newer ones lack long term data, but the information is detailed enough that you can get a very, very solid idea about your prospects in a particular field. I encourage all young people on this site to read this article, reread it, and share it with their high school or college aged friends and siblings. Here are my big takeaways:
1) No matter what you do, complete your degree
Unsurprisingly, the return on investment is always negative if you do not finish your degree. If someone drops out of college, the superior choice clearly would have been trade school or simply working a basic job rather than spending money/going into debt for a credential not received. There are not many majors where it would be a better choice to drop out, and if you are in that situation you're probably better off spending the extra time in college to transfer to a more lucrative major. Spending another year or eighteen months in college to swap an anthropology degree for an accounting or economics degree would be well worth it in most cases.
2) STEM isn't a meme--at least, the TEM part isn't
Virtually all Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics degrees yield a positive ROI, generally above $500,000 over the course of a lifetime. Engineering in particular is impressive as 69% of degrees deliver a lifetime payoff of $1,000,000 or more. If you can hack it in one of these majors and you wouldn’t absolutely hate the next forty years or working life, you should get one of these degrees.
A lot of science majors have lower ROI's than I expected, but as the report points out, this analysis only encompasses people who have a bachelors degree and tracks their earnings. Since so many science majors pursue higher education such as medical school or graduate school, those with only bachelors degrees aren't that representative of a sample. But if you have no interest in education beyond a four year degree, a biology degree is probably a bad choice.
3) The institution does matter--but less than major
The most important decision, by far, is the choice of major. There are Harvard degrees with a negative ROI, and there are degrees from nominally unimpressive schools that return a positive ROI--some quite handsomely: "Moreover, 15% of programs at the cheapest schools (those with net tuition below $2,000) have a payoff above $500,000. At these inexpensive colleges, 82% of engineering programs, 51% of computer science programs, and 37% of health and nursing programs net their graduates more than half a million dollars."
If you can get your degree of choice at a higher tier institution, it might be worth it so long as you are confident in your ability to graduate. Unsurprisingly, the ROI of a degree is negative in 100% of the cases where a student drops out, and the probability of a positive ROI decreases the longer it takes to complete your degree.
My big takeaway is that the most important decision by far is the choice of major, followed by the type of lifestyle decisions that maximize your probability of graduation. Don't move halfway across the country to go to a marginally better school as a flex if being away from family and friends will make you miserable. State is fine, provided your choice of major is a good one.