Fullmetal Alchemist Mafia DP3

Time remaining?

Roughly 23hrs

Honestly, I have a harder time believing it’s Earth. Can’t see a way by which Alphonse wouldn’t be in this game along with his brother, who we already know was in this game. It’s possible that he got pruned in the process of bringing the numbers down, but I think the likelihood of that is lower than with either Hohenheim or Armstrong. Maybe I’m too focused on theme here, but that’s how I see it.

I’ll give the rest of your post some thought after I get off work.

Its likely Sups gave mafia one of the pruned characters as a fake claim.

I'm going collecting my brother from the airport now and won't be on tonight and probably not so much tomorrow. We can probably get this DP extended right? Down to the wire now and all that, game has obviously suffered from inactivity too. 

Since it sounds like we wouldn’t get the required votes to do anything without it, I’d say an extension is warranted if you’re willing to grant it.

There will be an extension of 12hrs. The DP ends 7/10/21 at MIDNIGHT

Tbh a no lynch here isnt exactly the end of the world, but if we can lynch scum this day phase that would be optimal

I wouldn't clear him based on his character alone. That would be like clearing badger for claiming cop. chances are good fake role claims or characters were given. It would  suck to lose  a game to something like that

I'm not saying that the character clears Earth, though that being one of only two main characters in this show, along with the evidence that Edward was here, makes the claim alone far less suspect than either yours or badger's, both of which are borderline choices among the few we have remaining. His being Bulletproof also shows a symmetry with my Vig role and badger's Cop role, both of which mirror Chris's JOAT roles. It also makes sense to have a full-time protective role rather than just a JOAT with a vest. I can't say I've seen any odd behavior on Earth's part, either, since this is consistent with his behavior in past games. It seems as though your only basis for suspecting him is that he has a role that can't be confirmed, whereas I've confirmed mine and badger has attempted to confirm himself through his choices (though determining whether his results actually confirm him is another story entirely). I guess if I were in your shoes, I might be thinking pretty similarly.

But as things stand right now, you look like the outlier. The only real oddity among the roles that have been revealed has been the Messenger, which only seemed to introduce more doubt rather than providing any meaningful benefit, but was at least focused on delivering information (even if there's no reason to suspect that the Messenger would have any...). This at least appears to be an investigative role-heavy game, with a Tracker, Cop and a JOAT with a 1X Cop. I have an inkling of what your soft-claiming your role as, assuming I'm not misreading you, but it both seems like an odd choice for the character and even more of an outlier of a role than the Messenger role. Maybe I'm wrong, though I won't know that unless you're willing to just claim your role. I'm also not as convinced by your character claim as I was initially.

Still, I want to get badger's and Earth's opinions on this. I personally want the full claim and at this stage I do think it's warranted, despite the risk Lunatic is intimating.

No votes placed

Bumping for activity 

I know you said you’d be busy last night, but would really appreciate your impressions of Earth vs Lunatic at this point.

I'm not reading in any real way at the moment, and sorry about that, but again it's hard to see Alphonse as mafia or not being in it, and for that, TUF reads as trying to fake a role equal to my believability as cop. If his supposed "game solve" isn't very convincing, I think I'll vote him. I definitely think he should claim. 

Earlier I had thought I had a game solve with the ninja/BG/innocent. It feels like TUF is trying to measure up. 

We’re going to need everyone on the same page here in order to get a lynch. What are your thoughts? Both Badger and I want a full claim from Lunatic.

Ball’s in your court. Full claim. Until then,

I don't have time for this unfortunately. Wed-friday are my worst days for mafia. But I am the governor and can overturn the lynch of any player but myself. I was hoping to use my role to catch scum if they tried to quick hammer which is why I was saying claiming kind of hampers that.

Justification is basically that I am a fair leader who is protective of those he cares about and dis-likes killing. 

I think earth is the last scum by POE.

Wait has Lunatic full claimed? That doesn't really make sense. I mean, why do you need your role to catch mafia when its a 1/3 chance? And its PoE me? What? So your role was ultimately pointless. 

I just noticed he claim Governor. I assume it works like it did in EpicMafia.

Mafiascum says that there is a twilight period between the hammer and the actual lynch. I remember there being a noticeable pause in yesterday's hammer and lynch, so I can believe this claim, for now at least. Still, role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation 

okay, I believe Lunatic is Governor.

Its not pointless. If someone is being lynched I can overturn it before supa posts the final vote count... We could have c aught scum if one tried to quick hammer

I just imagined you could overturn the lynch if mafia decided to go full "Muwhaha you idiots thought I was town" etc etc and you just pull your Uno reverse card. I'm not sure whats your metric for measuring quick lynching but whatever.

Governor is a nice role claim for Strongarm Alchemist in fairness.

Except the part where you can only overturn if it's not on you actually. I've definitely played governor before where you could overturn anyway. That sounds like a weakness you'd give to mafia rather than town.

Alright, a lot of thoughts I'm putting together in one post.

While I agree that the Governor role is a good fit for Armstrong (I don't think the fact that he can't apply it to himself stands out), it doesn't change my perspective. We already had one scum claim a role and character that fit together neatly, so I don't think good fit should decide this. It's possible that we're overthinking this, but based on the claims, it's clear that at least two of the three - Cop, Vig and BP - are in this game and also just so happen to be roles in MC's JOAT. If Lunatic is right that Earth is scum, then it would only be the Cop and Vig. Assuming that's true, that would also mean that Supa only put one protective role on a JOAT for town, which is unusual in a game with so many PRs. All of that I could accept as plausible.

What I can't accept is that Alphonse Elric was given as a fake claim to scum. Earth claimed Alphonse in DP2, early enough that he had to believe he was secure in providing that claim (4 other people had not character claimed up to this point and this is one of only two main characters, so the claim would have been at extremely high risk of being CC'd), which means it is either his actual claim or it was given to him by Supa as a fake claim. If it's the latter, especially given the knowledge that Edward is in this game and is town, that would be bastard modding to a degree I've never seen before. I just don't buy it. It's a weird choice that Lunatic is not justifying beyond just saying that he did it by POE. I'm sure it's more an issue of the time he can actually devote to this than actual laziness, but I can't understand where he's coming from.

Honestly, I'd have an easier time buying it if he went after badger because I could at least see some behavioral reasons to sus him from DP2. There's also the fact that we already have a known Tracker in this game, as well as a JOAT with a 1X Cop. Especially given the now known absence of a Miller, I wouldn't be too surprised if that was all the informational roles we had. The borderline character choice of Hohenheim and its weak connection to the role also stood out to me. I do think that badger's behavior this DP looks pretty town, though that may just be compensating in the other direction to protect himself. The presence of a Framer and Lawyer JOAT on scum may actually be explained by something he said in the last DP: after the game was pruned, the Cop may have been eliminated, but the roles of the scum JOAT were kept the same.

As I see it, this is clearly a decision between Lunatic and badger, and I see reasons to favor either one, though I think Luna's are more circumstantial. I know he's busy and I suspect that, even so, if he was scum, he'd be doing a better job trying to get us to vote on anyone else. The only behavior from badger that's strange in the context of him being scum is that he claimed Lunatic was innocent, but while I'm still a bit torn on this decision, I think too much points in his direction for me to ignore. Maybe it's just the lack of play from Lunatic that's making it harder to read him as sus, but right now, I'm going with where I started in this DP.

I suspect we'll end up with a no lynch this DP. If that ends up happening, fine, but we have the next 6+ hours, and I'd like to at least have some substantial discussion of who everyone else is considering and why.

I fucked up D1 so your game to lose tbh. You are losing it though, it's not me lol. I'm honestly not even sure it's TUF either tbh, I am rusty as hell, so no flame but. I'd still lynch him though.

Who is your top suspect?