Fairy Tail Mafia DP2

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#151
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@ILikePie5
Or so he claims. 

FT also claimed the ability to protect.

There may well also be a doctor.

So, three people you dreamed.

If we lynch one and that person is town, the remaining two could be either town or scum.
#152
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@coal
Or so he claims. 

FT also claimed the ability to protect.
So you believe there’s scum in between FT and Lunatic? 

There may well also be a doctor.
Whiteflame has had the opportunity to claim that and he hasn’t. Only person left is Oro

So, three people you dreamed.

If we lynch one and that person is town, the remaining two could be either town or scum.
But odds are greater you’re scum if Speed isn’t and a reasonable person would lynch you. It’s pretty simple 
#153
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@ILikePie5
Nearly all of that is wrong.
#154
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@coal
Nearly all of that is wrong.
Based on what we know you’re 2nd most likely to be scum. Your role is a common scum role. Your reasoning behind selecting WF doesn’t make sense. You’re in my results. RM was confident you’re scum.
#155
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@coal
Have you posted comprehensive reads on individual player yet? If not please do so
#156
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@ILikePie5
Based on what we know you’re 2nd most likely to be scum. Your role is a common scum role. Your reasoning behind selecting WF doesn’t make sense. You’re in my results. RM was confident you’re scum.
Second most likely to be scum overall, or second most likely from your pool of three? 

Clarify your intent in that statement. 
#157
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@coal
Second most likely to be scum overall, or second most likely from your pool of three? 

Clarify your intent in that statement. 
From the list of you, Speed, and Lunatic.

Post your reads on each player 
#158
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There are eight living players:

1. oromagi
2. Lunatic
3. iLikePie5
4. MisterChris
5. FourTrouble
6. coal
7. Speedrace
8. whiteflame

Pie "dreamed" that one of Coal, Lunatic, and Speed are scum.

Assuming the results are reliable . . . .  there are two groups: (1) the "dreamed" group; and (2) the not "dreamed" group.

  • Dreamed Group - 1/3 must be scum:
    • Coal - Town
    • Lunatic - 2nd most likely scum (has not full claimed?)
    • Speed - Most likely scum (of those "dreamed")

  • Not Dreamed Group - 1/4 must be scum:
    • FourTrouble - Town
    • whiteflame - Town
    • MisterChris - Possible town (confirmable town?)
    • oromagi - Most likely scum (of those not "dreamed")

(Excluding Pie, the dreamer, who is town).
#159
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@coal
  • whiteflame - Town
  • MisterChris - Possible town (confirmable town?)
  • oromagi - Most likely scum (of those not "dreamed")
Expand on these 3 reads please.
#160
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@ILikePie5
This aggression from you is misplaced and unhelpful.  Aside from the fact that it is not moving the ball forward, it's pissing me off. 

At this point I don't care about your reads because (1) the only reason I wanted them in the first place was to determine your affiliation on DP1 (which now is a moot issue, given your role as a dreamer); and (2) they were as FT correctly noted, internally contradictory if not nonsensical. 

So that is why I am not asking.  Not because I feel like I need to explain myself to you without getting something in return.

The only thing I care about are your results the next dayphase, and your vote on Speed at the appropriate time.

We both agree that that's the correct path forward for now, so there's little else to say unless you have worthwhile insight on the balance implications of TUF's role, or some worthwhile theory as to who is most likely to be scum among the non-dreamed group as above.  

Make sense?
#161
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Frankly, I don't even think you have a reason why you're asking me for what you're asking.  It seems like you're just asking questions to ask questions.  And that futility is why you should not expect a further response from me.

It's not enough to act like you're moving the ball forward.  You need to actually do it.  And you are not doing so.  
#162
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And the fact that you placed any stock in RM's reads underscores my points above.  
#163
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@coal
Ok you’re getting lynched tomorrow
#164
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Public announcement. If Speed flips town and I die, lynch Coal tomorrow for his refusal to answer questions from someone who he says is probably town

#165
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@coal
Frankly, I don't even think you have a reason why you're asking me for what you're asking.  It seems like you're just asking questions to ask questions.  And that futility is why you should not expect a further response from me.
I don’t need to explain my reasons for asking reads from you. Do it or don’t do it. I don’t see a reason why you wouldn’t do it, but your choice. If Speed is town you’re next on the list.
#166
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@ILikePie5
Oh goodie.  Now that you've said your piece, do you have any intention of doing anything useful for the remainder of this day phase? 
#167
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@MisterChris
@FourTrouble
How do y’all want to proceed? Speed and Oro are AWOL and Coal doesn’t want to lynch Speed cause he wants reads from everyone but when I ask for them he says they’re a waste of time. 
#168
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@coal
Oh goodie.  Now that you've said your piece, do you have any intention of doing anything useful for the remainder of this day phase? 
It was you who wanted reads from people before we lynch but you yourself don’t want to do it. Why is that?
#169
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@ILikePie5
Smh.

Public announcement. If Speed flips town and I die, lynch Coal tomorrow for his refusal to answer questions from someone who he says is probably town


It was you who wanted reads from people before we lynch but you yourself don’t want to do it. Why is that?

1. I have explained why I wanted your reads DP1, and why I no longer care about them now; unless you have insight on either of the two salient issues at this moment.  Those issues being: (a) TUF's role's balance implications, if there is a doctor in the game and/or alternatively in view of FT's non-clarified "armor" he provided to the cop (RM) last night.  You considered neither of those in your premature determination that TUF is more "town" than me.  It's not that I think you're buddying with him, so much as I am frustrated with the lack of depth in your posts; and (b) a coherent theory as to who from among the non-dreamed group I identified above is most likely to be scum, an issue you have remained silent on.

2. Your post 164 ("If Speed flips town and I die, lynch Coal tomorrow for his refusal to answer questions from someone who he says is probably town") is absurd, where (a) you have no idea what if any other additional results will present tomorrow, or how any further results today (that I anticipate will be disclosed before we lynch speed, or hope at least) would impact that analysis and (b) you have ignored the fact that the non-scum group may well present a more viable POE than the --- weak, almost to the point of vapidity --- position you have justifying why I should be lynched.  

3. I have said why I understand the suspicion of the fact that I essentially claimed a town-roleblocker role.  Rather than acknowledge it and move on, you have tunnelled me and accomplished less than nothing (other than cause added friction) in the course of doing so; while wasting my time asking me questions when you don't even have a coherent reason for doing so.

4. I want other people's reads, namely from TUF and the non-dreamed group, and will get to that when I am done wasting my time here. 
#170
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He still refuses to explain his reads on people while wanting the same from others.
#171
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Just got in from a flight, feeling pretty exhausted, but I'll give my two cents before signing off.

I'm not sure why so much of the discussion is focused on this when the entirety of Pie's argument is based on what happens if Speed flips town. I can understand why each of you want something, but honestly, I think we're pretty locked in when it comes to who we're lynching tonight unless Speed decides to come on and suddenly vindicate himself. I would definitely like to hear from Oro at some stage, but regardless of his claim, I think the current lynch target makes sense. I'm sure there will be a lot of discussion on this very topic if Speed flips town, but how about we wait and see if that happens before we make it a big deal? Rather not waste our time with town in-fighting if it isn't necessary.

As for what I think should happen, I'm willing to wait a bit longer to get Oro's claim, but he was on 4 hours ago and didn't post here. Not sure what's up on his end, but I say we wait until tomorrow morning. If he claims, then great, we have that information to ponder over for the next DP. If he doesn't, then best to wait until the start of the next DP to pressure him.
#172
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DP2-1 DEAD:

  • Earth - (Jellal Hernandez) (Miller)
    • Role mentions
      • Ezra 
      • Zeref (Evil Wizard, Scum)
      • Wendy
  • RM - (Doranbalt) (Cop)
    • Role provides no useful information
    • Nor did his activity DP1
    • Irritating from every angle

LIVING:

DREAMED: 1/3 Must be Scum 

  • coal - (Cana Alberona) (Drunk) (DP2-34) - TOWN
  • Lunatic -  (Juvia Lockser) (DP2-16) (Protector) (DP2-51; DP2-71) - TOWN
    • Reasonable reads, even if inactive (DP1-292)
    • Correct analysis in response to RM nonsense
      • Examples Abound; he's reading the game, carefully
        • ("Go look at any Coal scum game and any coal town game. In my opinion, he is extremely easy to read. Nothing about his behavior here indicates he is scum.") (DP1-310)
        • ("That really hasn't been how he's played this game. Again read themeless. Dude OMGUS'ed my for 4 day phases and stopped trying to actually prettend to scum read. The fact that he is voting earth even after his back and forth with oro is a prime example of how he isn't doing this.") (DP1-310)
      • As scum, he buddies me; but he's also objectively correct on my town meta
      • I disagree with his read on my scum meta; but I am aware of what he thinks my scum meta is
      • Very clear depth of thought; specific citations to my posts ("Even his post 133 where he")
  • Speedrace -  (Levy McGarden) (hider) (DP2-12) - SCUM
    • DP1 - Conspicuously silent (see DP1-502)

NOT DREAMED: 1/4 Must be scum of MisterChris, Oromagi, Four Trouble & Whiteflame

  • iLikePie5 - (Lucy Heartfilia) (Dreamer) (DP2-6) - TOWN
    • Dream Results - Coal, Lunatic, and Speed (one of three is scum) (DP2-6) 
      • Dream results consistent with others' behavior; e.g., FT and Oro cannot both be scum per DP1-278
      • His own behaviour erratic 
    • Scum read Pie and Lunatic DP1 (DP1-239) but somehow forgot this DP2
      • Did not scum read me DP1
      • But isn't it almost OP to give both a dreamer and a cop, and a "day cop" JOAT, unless cop was flavored and maybe that is implied by RM's justification?
      • Just a thought.  Working theory is that pie is town.  Otherwise fuck this entire game. 
  • MisterChris - (Mirajane Strauss) ("Loved") (DP1-7) - PROBABLY TOWN
    • Claims DP-1 town popular, presumably?  And we haven't we confirmed him? Why can't we do that today? 
    • It's town-enough to get him out of the POE.
    • "If it helps: my justification is that, due to my charm, I'm loved by all in my guild and I'm frequently on the cover of Sorcerer Weekly gaining me global adoration." (DP1-336)
    • Hard scum reads FT
  • oromagi - SCUM
    • DP1-83 - Claims he claimed("I claimed my character in my first post but now I don't think we should hard claim characters until folks familiar with this theme advise on how closely connected character is to theme.")
      • That is a flat out lie as far as I can tell ... Maybe I missed.  If so, point me to where.
      • Does not even identify his "character" in his reads list, despite doing so for others (e.g., DP1-290)
    • DP1-20 - Offered to trade character for my character
      • Potentially suggests scum were given fake claims, in view of later posts (e.g., DP1-168)
      • Placed emphasis on whether characters have justifications
        • He asked if I had a justification to begin with; Was shocked I had one; he presumably did not, based on Supa's incorrectly stated rules
        • Implied he did not have a justification linking character to role; Implies his justification either doesn't link, or didn't have one at all
    • DP1-25 - Irritating "list" of what are essentially non-reads 
      • No detail; just placed himself above "town" bar, indicating he is town
        • (If Pie wasn't claimed character with useful results, I'd be hammering him on his demonstrable inconsistency in pressuring me DP2, while ignoring Oro in his entirety, despite the fact that he agreed Speed is most likely scum among "dreamed")
      • Very evasive, see, e.g., DP1-143 and his failure to ever respond 
    • DP1-152 - Incorrectly claimed I thought confirming MisterChris was a waste of time; that was FT (e.g., DP1-156)
  • FourTrouble -  (Erza Scarlet) (DP1-207) (JOAT?); ("Day Cop") (DP1-162) ("I tried to protect RM last night by giving him an armor") (DP2-36) - TOWN
    • Guilty on Earth, the Miller, before Miller claimed 
      • Miller was lynched, was Miller 
      • FT is either day role cop and lied as scum; or day cop and reported truth.
      • Paranoid I and others think he faked being a "day cop"
      • RM was a Cop.  Balance issues. 
      • Claims to have given armor to RM, the cop, who sort of counterclaimed FT DP1 ... sort of 
    • Justifiable hard on to lynch Pie DP1 (see DP1-38 - DP1-142, remaining throughout, e.g. DP1-407)
      • DP1-50 - My personal favorite of this set: "Your eye is untrained. Please trust."  
      • DP1-129 - My second personal favorite of this set: "Scum waste our time. Town scum hunt. It's clear which one Pie's doing."  
      • Note this trend continued to DP2, from pie
      • That Pie has proven useful DP2 does not change the fact that FT's read on him is objectively correct; problem is that subjectively, this is pie being pie 
      • First game FT plays with Pie ever, I think; with predictable results 
    • Didn't get off this despite dreamer results; which, while understandable in view of behaviour, less so given context
  • whiteflame -  (Gray Fullbuster) (DP2-5) - TOWN

Really, we just need Oro's full claim.  Then lynch speed.













#173
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@ILikePie5
Yes I used it in 13 Reasons Why for Zach Dempsey

OK. It's rare enough to where I'm actually inclined to believe Coal for the time being, but if Speed flips TOWN Coal is no doubt the lynch.

Have to go back to class but after school I'll post more in depth thoughts
#174
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vtl coal.

Gut is telling me it's coal based on his flip flop on me, combined with his night actions. Feel like he is trying to manipulate me into buddying him by town reading me now, where he wasn't earlier, but it's not like any of the reasons he town read me for are different from before when he was scum reading me lol. 

Kind of busy today but I also feel like if speed was scum he would be making a better effort to be online and defend himself. Speed is pretty good as scum, and isn't the type to just roll over and let himself be afk lynched. Also he typically responds quickly to discord messages, so I imagine his partner would be pinging him up right now if he was scum. If coal is somehow town, then I will probably think pie is scum, but if we are taking pies claim for true, then I am thinking its gotta be coal. 
#175
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@Lunatic
I honestly kinda want to as well, but Speed is really hurting us by not being active at all. At the end of the day we still have a mislynch. In the off chance Coal is the Town Drunk it’s a much more valuable role than a Hider. 
#176
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@MisterChris
We have less than 24 hours.

Speed and Oro are AWOL

FT disappeared. If no one is going to do anything, let’s get on with it
#177
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@ILikePie5
Vote’s posted. Just need two more on board.
#178
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@Lunatic
@MisterChris
Can we do this please
#179
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@ILikePie5
Help me lynch coal and im down. Scum speed would be on defending. Fr.
#180
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@Lunatic
Help me lynch coal and im down. Scum speed would be on defending. Fr.
If he were town he’d be doing that. Remember your game with the villains? If he’s not scum then Coal is 100% next. 

But I’m definitely not No Lynching today. We have less than 24 hours and the DP ends in the morning when people like me will be asleep