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@3RU7AL
See above post to fauxlaw. I would love to have a more in-depth discussion on the topic of automation and it's impact on the economy in the future if possible.
Universal Basic Income
Posts
Total:
314
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@Discipulus_Didicit
What jobs do you think humans will be performing when self-driving-cars are commonplace?
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@3RU7AL
Who made GPT3, again? And who, within 10 years, will probably render it obsolete? Who made the tech to go to the moon? Who made tech to land a rover on Mars, some 50M miles away, in a 7 sq meter landing target? Who did that? It was not ancient aliens, my friend, and it was not GPT3. Give it a break. We are infinitely more capable than any machine we will ever make. Go back to ancient aliens episodes. That's a crowd that shares your pessimism of the ability of man.
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@3RU7AL
What jobs do you think humans will be performing when self-driving-cars are commonplace?
Car mechanic.
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@3RU7AL
What jobs do you think humans will be performing when self-driving-cars are commonplace?
Troubleshooting the failures. One of a million jobs.
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@3RU7AL
AI has been on the minds of people since the 18th century, without knowing what to call it [since they were not sure if it was a possible 'thing'] when philosophers first started wondering if human thought could be mechanized. The term, AI, was coined in the 50s. So, some 400 years later, and 70 years of knowing what to call it, tell me what AI has, on its own, invented. When will it bloody well innovate something on its own?
I'm reminded of an old Twilight Zone episode, titled "To Serve Man," about an alien species who came to earth and started taking Earthlings back to their planet. They left a book with us which, during the timing of the episode [one-half hour], but days, perhaps months within the episode's duration, we were trying to decipher the alien language, and finally deciphered the title, the episode title. At first, it seems a matter of service to mankind, by taking us to their home to teach us their tech. Nope, turned out, it was just a recipe book. Ha ha, jokes' on us.
Your fear of AI is about as funny as our deciphering the recipe book. If, in 400 years, AI has not yet served us with some innovation, I'm not too worried about the near future of our employment possibilities.
You see, in my lifespan, the tech I've dealt with started with a transistor radio I could hold in my hand about the size of a stack of smartphones. I had a slide rule to calculate mathematics. The hand-held calculator was introduced in my middle school years, and it was limited to simple math [add/subtract, mutllipy, divide] and was barely pocket-size. It was forbidden to use in class. I was born two years following the creation of the U.S. Air Force as a separate military branch. Going to the moon was a distant dream, but, when it came to that, we invented, from scratch, the tech to do in ten years. In my lifetime, the computer has reduced from room-size to holding more tech than that room had in my hand. I am blown away by what we have accomplished in just in 70 years. And you're afraid of AI? Heaven help us, we've lost our confidence.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
What jobs do you think humans will be performing when self-driving-cars are commonplace?Car mechanic.
Significantly fewer people will be driving to work.
Significantly fewer people will be owning vehicles.
Significantly fewer automobile accidents will happen.
And the electric vehicles do not require oil changes or spark-plugs.
Modular designs will allow sections to be swapped out and sent back to the factory for repair.
And like you pointed out, if there is a glut of mechanics, wages will go into the sewer.
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@fauxlaw
dio I could hold in my hand about the size of a stack of smartphones. I had a slide rule to calculate mathematics. The hand-held calculator was introduced in my middle school years, and it was limited to simple math [add/subtract, mutllipy, divide] and was barely pocket-size. It was forbidden to use in class. I was born two years following the creation of t
You clearly have no idea what we're dealing with.
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@fauxlaw
Troubleshooting the failures. One of a million jobs.
Mechanics can't even diagnose these new vehicles without MODEL SPECIFIC PROPRIETARY TOOLS AND SOFTWARE.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
What jobs do you think humans will be performing when self-driving-cars are commonplace?Car mechanic.
So, typically, today we have about 3.5 million professional drivers in the USA.
So, typically, today we have about 800,000 professional mechanics in the USA.
I guess we're going to have a very exciting game of "musical chairs" (leaving 77.143% of drivers without jobs if and only if all the professional mechanics suddenly quit their jobs).
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@3RU7AL
You clearly have no idea what we're dealing with.
And, ere the cloud of the tempest blew,
His soul was with the world at play.
He looked to the stars, and the stars smiled,
And the moon in the heaven looked;
And, as he looked, he beheld her light,
And all the heaven smiled with him.
When winds and tempests fly,
When floods and fires fail,
As their wake doth meadow and fen,
Tis the man-child’s heart that craves.
And I — I shall be bound,
With the hoary-headed, strong, old,
To earth, and the graves of the dead,
Whose feet are mowed down, as they lie;
And I shall rest my weary head,
In the silence of Eternity,
In the peaceful arms of God.
His soul was with the world at play.
He looked to the stars, and the stars smiled,
And the moon in the heaven looked;
And, as he looked, he beheld her light,
And all the heaven smiled with him.
When winds and tempests fly,
When floods and fires fail,
As their wake doth meadow and fen,
Tis the man-child’s heart that craves.
And I — I shall be bound,
With the hoary-headed, strong, old,
To earth, and the graves of the dead,
Whose feet are mowed down, as they lie;
And I shall rest my weary head,
In the silence of Eternity,
In the peaceful arms of God.
****************************
Some journeys do not go where steps intended,
Mended on the way by chance,
By circumstance,
A dance to music distant,
Dissonant and unheard to some,
A discord to a phrase remembered.
What would harm the hearing stings the sight
And tears are drawn
From the dust of an unfamiliar path.
That is not a hidden path,
It is a road of stars.
That is not discordant melody,
It is the voice of God.
Those are not tears,
It is the rain of heaven.
Mended on the way by chance,
By circumstance,
A dance to music distant,
Dissonant and unheard to some,
A discord to a phrase remembered.
What would harm the hearing stings the sight
And tears are drawn
From the dust of an unfamiliar path.
That is not a hidden path,
It is a road of stars.
That is not discordant melody,
It is the voice of God.
Those are not tears,
It is the rain of heaven.
*****************************
I'll let you figure out which is which. My poetry. GPT3 poetry.
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@fauxlaw
Machines have made jobs obsolete for centuries. The spinning jenny replaced weavers, buttons displaced elevator operators, and the Internet drove travel agencies out of business. One study estimates that about 400,000 jobs were lost to automation in U.S. factories from 1990 to 2007. But the drive to replace humans with machinery is accelerating as companies struggle to avoid workplace infections of COVID-19 and to keep operating costs low. The U.S. shed around 40 million jobs at the peak of the pandemic, and while some have come back, some will never return. One group of economists estimates that 42% of the jobs lost are gone forever.
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@FLRW
One group of economists estimates that 42% of the jobs lost are gone forever.
I have friends who are web designers and computer programmers and GPT3 is shockingly close to putting them out of business.
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@fauxlaw
I see.
And how much does the average professional poet earn?
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@fauxlaw
Great! According to this article the United states wastes 80 billion pounds of food per year! Between that and the millions of acres of wilderness that you have pointed put we have land on which to house the entire homeless population and also enough excess food! And you were worried it would cost you something to feed and house everyone!
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@secularmerlin
Great! According to this article the United states wastes 80 billion pounds of food per year! Between that and the millions of acres of wilderness that you have pointed put we have land on which to house the entire homeless population and also enough excess food! And you were worried it would cost you something to feed and house everyone!
Nice.
Now we just have to change the laws against "camping" and make disposing edible food illegal.
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@3RU7AL
I mean... the entire "expired label" on food can be kind of arbitrary, sure in some instances its actually useful, but its mostly used for profit.
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@Theweakeredge
I mean... the entire "expired label" on food can be kind of arbitrary, sure in some instances its actually useful, but its mostly used for profit.
Yep.
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@FLRW
Tell me that people who used to make buggy whips were forever void of a new job when cars became the primary source of persona transportation. Only uncreative people suffer permanent loss. No, not just the employed, but the smart employers started making steering wheels and other components. When I bought a CMM [coordinate measuring machine], an automated measuring device for my lab to measure dimensions of parts, I could have laid off 3/4 my department. I didn't. I taught them how to audit manufacturing processes and suggest process improvements. I taught them how to calculate the cost savings, or cost increases on implementing their ideas. No person lost a job; I re-educated them into new jobs. That's what creative employers do. Some do not, like the buggy whip manufacturers who could not see to re-tool for automitive products. I can't help stupid. I will help ambition.
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@secularmerlin
Wasted food is the dumbest result of a meal there is. People will package their leftovers and stuff their refrigerator with them, then throw them out when they rot. i don't keep leftovers like that. I bought a freeze dryer to turn them into food of long storage [25 years] in ambient condition. In two years, I've freeze dried enough food to last my family for over three years. Plus, I have food stored by other mediums, including by nothing more exotic than sunlight. I may not always have use of my freeze dryer, but if the sun blinks out, we're all ice cubes, anyway. Or, you can throw up your hands and go to the food bank. Good luck if it isn't open anymore. I am my food bank. Be entitled. Come find it if you can. Better, be prepared, yourself. Oh, but that takes personal responsibility, and that's non-pC, isn't it?
Any other objections?
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@3RU7AL
Why cut jobs when you can cut hours? As a car shop owner I can employ 2 full timers and 8 part timers as easily as I can employ 6 full timers without reducing wages. Because self-driving transportation would reduce the cost of JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING it would be easier to make a living wage on less hours, making room for employers to hire more employees. Not all ex-drivers would become mechanics but other fields would open up positions due to reduced cost of living making reduced hours more common as well.
I think it should be obvious how automation reduces cost of living but if it isn't then let me know and I will explain.
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@fauxlaw
Any other objections?
Objections? I thought we had solved the thing.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I think it should be obvious how automation reduces cost of living but if it isn't then let me know and I will explain.
Physical automation, like the historical example of the loom and the printing press and movable type and the linograph were one dimension of labor.
Intellectual and creative automation is a whole new dimension of labor.
Robot designer?
GPT3 will be designing the robots.
Robot repair tech?
With no incentive to engineer obsolescence, modular designs and ultra low production costs will make repairs as easy as swapping a module.
It won't matter if you have an "advanced degree in engineering" or you're a highschool drop out, you're equally qualified for the job.
A truly equal playing field.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I think it should be obvious how automation reduces cost of living but if it isn't then let me know and I will explain.
LOWER PRICES ARE NOT A UNIVERSAL GOOD.
GOOD FOR CONSUMERS ≠ GOOD FOR WORKERS.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I think it should be obvious how automation reduces cost of living but if it isn't then let me know and I will explain.
Please explain, because history would appear to say otherwise
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@fauxlaw
I think it should be obvious how automation reduces cost of living but if it isn't then let me know and I will explain.Please explain, because history would appear to say otherwise
Well stated. There is no evidence to suggest that an unregulated market shows appreciable cost reductions when cost of production goes down. Instead it translates this reduction in cost into higher profits for corporations.
IF profits are the primary goal THEN human wellbeing is not the primary goal.
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@secularmerlin
Instead it translates this reduction in cost into higher profits for corporations.
And as a potential investor in that corporation, you can share in that profiting. That is, you can if you consider that in addition to just working for money, you can put your money to work for you. By that tactic, you want that corporation to be more profitable. Of course, that means you may not be able to buy a boat, or an RV, but you will increase your wealth. Such purchases do not do that for you; these products are not investments; they're drains. Invest in yourself. Buy a house; that is an investment. then buy another one, and rent it out. That other stuff can be rented, and you're free of the upkeep and maintenance costs. When was the last time you sold a vehicle at a profit? In spite of my net worth, I drive a 20 year-old truck because it just continues to run. I don't need a new car every three years. My truck has more than paid for itself, and, in the meantime, I've been able to devote more money to investment in me. It's too easy and so many people stumble over the idea that working for money is enough. Really?
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@fauxlaw
RENT-SEEKING
In public-choice theory, as well as in economics, rent-seeking means seeking to increase one's share of existing wealth without creating new wealth.[1] Rent-seeking results in reduced economic efficiency through misallocation of resources, reduced wealth-creation, lost government revenue, heightened income inequality,[2] and potential national decline.
Attempts at capture of regulatory agencies to gain a coercive monopoly can result in advantages for rent-seekers in a market while imposing disadvantages on their incorrupt competitors. This is one of many possible forms of rent-seeking behavior. [**]
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@3RU7AL
RENT-SEEKING
After reading your source, I wonder if you did, because nothing about the description of "rent-seeking" refers to the rental of developed property to another person to use as a residence, or as a place of business.
As a matter of fact, your source stipulates that the concept of "rent-seeking" is to be separated from the role of a property developer [me] in the guise of providing that property to another for a price. It's in the second paragraph.
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@fauxlaw
And as a potential investor in that corporation, you can share in that profiting [RENT-SEEKING].
Yeah, I wasn't speaking specifically about "property rental fees" either.