If we don’t have a consensus pass the bomb to whoever has the most votes. Treat it like a plurality lynch.
Daylight Mafia - Day Phase 2
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I also didn’t trust Supa’s alleged confirmation, his role could be scum sided even if he was able to confirm it. I don’t know why he’d even use a role like that if he saw so much negative utility in it.
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@ILikePie5
You know, I agree the shot on supa was probably rash but I think warren is town confirmed. If all roles in the game are on drafters list (I am assuming they are because he has linked it in both day phases and all deaths so far line up with the list).
The two day killing roles I can see in the mafia spreadsheet are Sheriff (Line 65) and Sniper (Line 68). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_pFVyzYrrc2kkwkX60hMmmTeYrM0bC3LejPCYtLZ9cQ/edit#gid=0
Sheriff is a town aligned role, since all of the mafia roles usually specify when they are, and sniper specifies that it doesn't join the mafia pm. The difference between the two though, is that warren's sherriff publicly revealed him, which aligns with sheriff, not sniper.
Inb4 "role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation" I think it does, for a drafter game at least. In your game pie, he was willing to lynch greyparrot because "Gramps is a scum role". I know he was actually claiming electrician and drafter either didn't read or was trolling, but you get a peek into his head on that one, enough to see he thinks roles should have a specific affiliation, at least in regards to his list.
Thoughts?
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@Lunatic
Inb4 "role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation" I think it does, for a drafter game at least. In your game pie, he was willing to lynch greyparrot because "Gramps is a scum role". I know he was actually claiming electrician and drafter either didn't read or was trolling, but you get a peek into his head on that one, enough to see he thinks roles should have a specific affiliation, at least in regards to his list.Thoughts?
I’d agree with you but Warren just said he had a mechanic that he would be killed if he didn’t use the gun based on a percentage, which doesn’t fit with any role. Plus the fact that Warren mentioned that other people could have guns as well was alluded to in his PM. I’ll ask him tomorrow how stuff would function
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@ILikePie5
I still think that role would be town. Kind of busted if mafia have a night kill and a day kill, especially in light of a bomb giver and a troublemaker which gives double lynches. I think a lot of these roles were designed to give town killing options. I don't even think it's third party in light of your bomb revelation. I don't think warren is scum
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@Lunatic
I still think that role would be town. Kind of busted if mafia have a night kill and a day kill, especially in light of a bomb giver and a troublemaker which gives double lynches. I think a lot of these roles were designed to give town killing options. I don't even think it's third party in light of your bomb revelation. I don't think warren is scum
All good, the second is option is after all between Warren and Bullish. We can just move on Bullish.
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@warren42
Just to confirm, you’re the sheriff right ?
We can get 4 town-directed kills in a row, let me just math this out.
Assuming 2 mafia,
Probablity of hitting both scum in the 4 kills: 12/42 (29%)
Probablity of hitting 1 scum in the 4 kills: 24/42 (57%)
Probablity of hitting no scum in the 4 kills: 6/42 (14%)
So there's a 57% chance we win outright, and a 29% chance we then have a 50/50 shot at winning. I like those odds.
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@Bullish
Assuming 2 mafia,Probablity of hitting both scum in the 4 kills: 12/42 (29%)Probablity of hitting 1 scum in the 4 kills: 24/42 (57%)Probablity of hitting no scum in the 4 kills: 6/42 (14%)So there's a 57% chance we win outright, and a 29% chance we then have a 50/50 shot at winning. I like those odds.
I hate stats. Can u explain your math and where the numbers come from?
Might as well claim at this point cause I basically already claimed: I have a gun. It's a generic gun at the bottom of drafter's role list.
A player with a gun has a 1-shot kill that may be used at any time during Day Phase. Players will notify the mod of their use and the target in their role PM. The shot will be processed by the mod when possible, but will be retroactive based on the time the owner submitted the action. Additional time will be added to the Day Phase to account for the time difference. The player retains the gun until it is used. Guns may be sabotaged and stolen. Sabotaged guns kill their owners when used. Unless otherwise specified, the use of the gun will randomly (50%) reveal the identity of the shooter.
So what we do is we lynch 2 people since we have 2 consecutive DPs, and we force a person to keep the bomb, and I kill a guy.
I just wanna say that as much as I wanted to lynch Supa last DP, is has got to be the 3rd-4th time I've personally seen him not read his role as town.
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@ILikePie5
2 permutation 7 = 42
2 permutation 4 = 12
(1 permutation4) x (1 permutation 3) x (1 permutation 2) = 24
2 permutation 3 = 6
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@Lunatic
Thoughts on Bullish’s claim?
Town already lost 2 people, our chances of winning the regular way is below 50% at this point. With my plan we have a 71% chance of winning.
I should shoot last because I can use my gun even if we lose 3 town in a row and end up at 2v2, I can still shoot. I can also keep the guy with the bomb honest.
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@Bullish
That just made it even worse 💀
If Bullish is to be believed then there are two people with guns practically confirming each other: Warren and Bullish. I’m town.
That leaves Oro, WF, Chris, and Lunatic
75% chance of catching scum assuming 2 scum and 1 TP
50% chance of catching scum assuming 1 scum and 1 TP
I’m asking Draftee if I could cancel that passage of the Bomb. I may have a course of action.
my bad boys we only get 3 kills in a row cause scum gets a night kill at the end. Could still work depending on how pie's bomb works.
Vote Count
Oro - 2/4 - Chris, Pie
Bullish - 1/4 - white flame
I've been reading up on the Anarchist role and I've filled in some gaps for myself.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we can pass it as many times as we want during a DP. That leads me to agree with Lunatic, since it means it will either lead to a proxy lynch, or it will land on the Anarchist, in which case he apparently doesn't die but his role is outed, in which case we simply lynch him. The nice thing as well is that, apparently, the countdown number may not be known to the Anarchist, since the role specifies that the count is set secretly. Presumably, the only person who knows that count is Draft. I was initially concerned about this, but not so much anymore, particularly if we bounce the bomb between our two main scum leans. Playing hot potato (yes, I'm aware that's a role as well) between as few people as possible should be our aim, so as soon as we agree as to who has the greater possibility of being scum (right now, I'm still split between MC, Bullish and Oro), we should start the count by having Pie pass it to one of them. Since the passages are apparently announced by Draft, there can be no subterfuge in how this is done.
All this being said, I'm aware that I've been read as null by many of you, and I am willing to be one of the people passing around the bomb. My role may become useful, but it's not currently important. Much as I'd like to keep town numbers as high as possible, if anyone who is town is going down, it might as well be me.
I'm going to agree with Lunatic and Pie that we should play a game of hot potato & have the bomb passed between our scum reads. It lowers the possibility of the bomb hitting town, although there's no way we can guarantee it won't.
I will say, that if the bomb hits me it won't be a big deal for town role-wise.
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@ILikePie5
Warren - FOS: Warren shooting Supa came off as extremely rash to me, which is unlike Warren. Normally he’s calculative in his assessment but time he didn’t read that Supa could be role-confirmed tomorrow. At the same time, a scum member with a gun? Would Drafter really do that?
With the death over the NP, I'm almost certain the scumteam isn't able to kill during the daytime. If anything I think this town-confirms warren, although I will agree with the sentiment that he shouldn't have pulled the trigger quite yet.
No clue what to think about Bullish' claim or math. Seems like there's plenty of room for miscalculation...
So what we do is we lynch 2 people since we have 2 consecutive DPs, and we force a person to keep the bomb, and I kill a guy.
This could be a scum gambit to kill off townies and then finish things quickly. Especially with Bullish insisting on being the last one to pull the trigger.
That said, the upside (that Bullish is actually town) looks pretty good.
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@ILikePie5
I can confirm that's how mine was worded too, I lied about the chance of it mis-firing because in the off chance mafia didn't know that I didn't want them to know they could potentially steal or sabotage Bullish's gun, but it's all in the open now
Yes, I'm the sherriff
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@MisterChris
Ok so instead of the Hot Potato game here’s what we can do. Right now I’m guessing 4-2-1 or 5-1-1 (can’t be 5-2 cause Anarchist hasn’t revealed themselves yet.)
What we can do is have Bullish shoot someone, this confirming himself. Worst case scenario he hits a townie among WF, Oro, Chris, and Lunatic, which brings it to 3-2-1 or 4-1-1. With my bomb I can pass it last minute to whoever is left among the three making it 2-2-1 or 3-1-1 (y’all can help me decide). Then because there will be no night actions (no bomb I’m guessing) we can choose our final lynch target with reevaluations.
Thoughts?
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@Bullish
@warren42
Y’all as well
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@Bullish
my bad boys we only get 3 kills in a row cause scum gets a night kill at the end. Could still work depending on how pie's bomb works.
No night kill tonight since speed was killed