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@Theweakeredge
Um... yes, yes you can - and yes, yes you can predict bias. You can, in fact, here's an entire paper over the concept:

Reliable computer-based tests have been developed tomeasure implicit and unconscious bias. The most commonly used is the IAT, which measures differential association of two target concepts—male or female, black orwhite, good or bad—and relies on differences in responselatency to reveal unconscious bias. The larger the performance difference, the stronger the unconscious bias.Between 1998 and 2006, more than 4.5 million IAT testswere completed on the IAT website. The project foundthat:• Implicit bias is pervasive.• People are often unaware of their implicit biases.• Implicit biases predict behavior.• People differ in levels of implicit bias.21The IAT is a powerful and useful instrument to exploreand document the impact of bias on behavior. It can beused to increase awareness of cognitive bias, and helpindividuals and groups to compensate and learn about influences on decision-making and social interactions. TheIAT is available online at implicit.harvard.edu. It is freeand takes about 10 minutes to complete a test.
Not to mention deduction and induction, you empirically do not know what you are talking about
#1 NOT EVERYONE IS TESTED
#2 NOT EVERYONE TRUSTS THE TESTS
#3 THE CREATORS OF THE TESTS WERE NOT UNBIASED
#4 THE TEST DOESN'T COVER INDIVIDUAL BIAS THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN TO BE "RACE" OR "SEX" BASED

in other words, everybody thinks they're "less biased" than everybody else.
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@3RU7AL
Except.... you can actually test for bias, you made a claim and it was demonstrably false - and you can use the same principles, PEOPLE DO IT ALL THE TIME

You can continue with your assertions and I won't bother you, but don't expect to convince other people without it.
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@Theweakeredge
Except.... you can actually test for bias, you made a claim and it was demonstrably false - and you can use the same principles, PEOPLE DO IT ALL THE TIME
Look, we agree that some specific "bias" can be detected with testing (but not necessarily cured).  But testing itself does not solve ALL bias.

Am I biased towards my sister and against my brother?

Am I biased towards my neighbor and against my other neighbor (all racial and all gender being 100% equal)?

Am I differently biased today than I was yesterday?

Am I differently biased today than I was two years ago?

You can continue with your assertions and I won't bother you, but don't expect to convince other people without it.
Don't expect to convince other people without what exactly?
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@3RU7AL
(1) which of these hypothetical crimes is more of a danger to the public?
We don’t punish crimes, we punish the people who commit them so your question is logically fallacious. The question is; which person is more of a danger to the public.

Answer: Person A

Person B is of course a danger as he demonstrated, but the difference is that Person B committed the robbery purely as a result of the circumstances surrounding him. Had an opportunity not presented itself to him, the crime would have never been committed.

Person A however ensured that the crime was committed. The status of the guard was irrelevant to him. He would not have allowed months of planning to go to waste.

(3) are we really trying to punish people for thinking ahead and NOT being impulsive?
Yes. The fact that someone thought ahead tells us a lot about their character, which tells us allot about the level of danger one presents to society. Person A had months to think about it and never pulled back, this shows that it was not a mistake as could be argued with Person B, rather this was something that Person A demonstrated to be in alignment with his/her core values as a human being.

Again, both of these are bad. No one is saying that Person B gets off the hook. Person A might get 20 years while Person B gets 15. The point is that they’re not the same.
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@3RU7AL
I would really love to hear your response to post #50
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@Double_R
THEY ARE THE EXACT SAME THING.
Let’s try something simpler. If I order a pizza, and then when the pizza came I ate it, could you say with reasonable confidence that my intention for calling the pizzeria was to eat pizza for dinner?
Your thoughts and your intentions are the exact same thing.

Your intentions and your ACTIONS are NOT the exact same thing.

There are so many likely exceptions to your food based example.

Have you ever ordered food and then NOT eaten it?

Have you ever ordered food and had it NOT delivered?

Have you ever ordered food and had it eaten by someone else?

Have you ever ordered food and suddenly lost your appetite?

(IFF) ordering food is NOT a crime (in your metaphor), and eating food is a crime (in your metaphor) (THEN) there is NO REASON TO INCREASE PUNISHMENT FOR SOMEONE WHO ORDERED FOOD AND REDUCE PUNISHMENT FOR SOMEONE WHO DID NOT ORDER FOOD (and only ate the food, which is a crime in your metaphorical scenario).
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@Double_R
I would really love to hear your response to post #50
Knock yourself out.
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@Double_R
(1) which of these hypothetical crimes is more of a danger to the public?
We don’t punish crimes, we punish the people who commit them so your question is logically fallacious. The question is; which person is more of a danger to the public.
I appreciate your precision.

Answer: Person A

Person B is of course a danger as he demonstrated, but the difference is that Person B committed the robbery purely as a result of the circumstances surrounding him. Had an opportunity not presented itself to him, the crime would have never been committed.
Person (A) also committed the robbery (or more likely burglary) purely as a result of the circumstances surrounding them.  Had an opportunity not presented itself to them, the crime would have never been committed.

The key difference here is that person (A) planned out their heist presumably with the goal to mitigate potential harm to bystanders and bank employees if for no other reason than to increase their perceived chances of not being eventually captured by the authorities.

This mitigation of potential harm is my main contention.  It seems obvious to me that mitigation of potential harm should be encouraged.

Person A however ensured that the crime was committed. The status of the guard was irrelevant to him. He would not have allowed months of planning to go to waste.
The status of the sleeping guard may or may not have been a factor in the person (A) scenario.  Regardless, other, similar details or combinations of these circumstances and or opportunities would necessarily be relevant to both the planning and execution phase of person (A)'s heist.

(3) are we really trying to punish people for thinking ahead and NOT being impulsive?
Yes. The fact that someone thought ahead tells us a lot about their character, which tells us allot about the level of danger one presents to society.
Isn't it obvious that someone who is able to demonstrate restraint and actually takes the time to think about something before they do it, isn't it obvious that this is behavior we should generally encourage in our citizens?

Person A had months to think about it and never pulled back, this shows that it was not a mistake...
Well, it could still be considered a "mistake" regardless of whether or not the "mistake" was planned.

...as could be argued with Person B, rather this was something that Person A demonstrated to be in alignment with his/her core values as a human being.
I'm not sure you can distill someone's "core values" simply by observing a single snapshot of their life experience.

Are you perhaps familiar with the Legendary "Robin Hood"?

Again, both of these are bad. No one is saying that Person B gets off the hook. Person A might get 20 years while Person B gets 15.
I agree.  They should both be punished.  And they should be punished proportionally, based on the total damage (including fear and anxiety) their actions manifested.

The point is that they’re not the same.
I agree.
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@3RU7AL
There are so many likely exceptions to your food based example.
The number of possible exceptions is completely irrelevant. What’s at issue is the likelihood that any of these exceptions apply. What continues to baffle me is how you keep stretching to find any examples to hold up as if that negates the point here... the intent was clear.

The fact that some people lose their appetite is irrelevant. My wife does this to me all the time, she asks me to heat something up for her and then she ends up not eating it. But so what? It is still clear that she intended to eat it when she asked for it.

I just don’t get it. Do you really live your life never thinking that you know someone else’s intent? Do you not question when someone acts uncharacteristically nice to you and try to figure it out? If someone asks to borrow something from you, do you not consider whether you think they plan to give it back? Do you trust anyone in your life? If so, what is trust if not a high degree of confidence that someone else has good intentions? This is as basic as human interaction gets. It’s nearly impossible for you to have any working relationship with another human being if you don’t.
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@3RU7AL
Person (A) also committed the robbery (or more likely burglary) purely as a result of the circumstancessurrounding them.  Had an opportunity not presented itself to them, the crime would have never been committed.

The key difference here is that person (A) planned out their heist presumably with the goal to mitigate potential harm to bystanders and bank employees if for no other reason than to increase their perceived chances of not being eventually captured by the authorities.
This is just semantics. Everything we do can be said to be a result of our circumstances, they don’t apply equally here.

The list of things that needed to line up for person B to commit the crime is long. The day he was having, the route he happened to walk, the guard sleeping, etc. None of these things made any difference with Person A. He would have committed the crime anyway. These two are not the same.

Isn't it obvious that someone who is able to demonstrate restraint and actually takes the time to think about something before they do it, isn't it obvious that this is behavior we should generally encourage in our citizens?
Of course it is, that’s why the crime is not excusable regardless of whether it was premeditated.

I'm not sure you can distill someone's "core values" simply by observing a single snapshot of their life experience.
That’s the whole point. For Person B this was just a snap shot. For Person A it wasn’t.
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@Double_R
The fact that some people lose their appetite is irrelevant. My wife does this to me all the time, she asks me to heat something up for her and then she ends up not eating it. But so what? It is still clear that she intended to eat it when she asked for it.
You seem to be losing track of your own metaphor.

Are you suggesting that "ordering food" is "thinking about a crime" (intention) and "eating food" is "committing an actual crime"?

(IFF) I understand your metaphor as you intended (THEN) you seem to believe your wife should be punished "more" for "ordering food" AND "eating food" (AND) should be punished "less" for wandering through the kitchen and grabbing an apple on impulse.

How does "ordering food" increase the penalty for "eating food" when "ordering food" itself is NOT punishable at all when the "food is NOT eaten".
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@Double_R
I just don’t get it. Do you really live your life never thinking that you know someone else’s intent? Do you not question when someone acts uncharacteristically nice to you and try to figure it out? If someone asks to borrow something from you, do you not consider whether you think they plan to give it back? Do you trust anyone in your life? If so, what is trust if not a high degree of confidence that someone else has good intentions? This is as basic as human interaction gets. It’s nearly impossible for you to have any working relationship with another human being if you don’t.
I used to think I could predict someone else's actions by their intentions alone.

When someone borrows money or a vehicle or a book or a movie or a jacket or a dish, they overwhelmingly INTEND to pay it back.

When they promise they'll get you back next Tuesday, they are undoubtedly sincere.

It's easy to think that people who disappoint you were never sincere in the first place.

But experience has taught me this is not the case.

Now I only "lend" things I'm willing to give away.

I no longer help people only with the expectation that they will help me back when I ask them.

When I help people or give them gifts, it is with the expectation that they will never return the gesture.
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@Double_R
The key difference here is that person (A) planned out their heist presumably with the goal to mitigate potential harm to bystanders and bank employees if for no other reason than to increase their perceived chances of not being eventually captured by the authorities.
This is just semantics. Everything we do can be said to be a result of our circumstances, they don’t apply equally here.
How is my example disqualified as "just semantics" and your example (which is functionally identical) is somehow immune to the exact same objection.

Please support your claim, "they don't apply equally here".

This specific claim appears to be a naked assertion.
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@Double_R
Isn't it obvious that someone who is able to demonstrate restraint and actually takes the time to think about something before they do it, isn't it obvious that this is behavior we should generally encourage in our citizens?
Of course it is, that’s why the crime is not excusable regardless of whether it was premeditated.
Why would premeditation INCREASE punishment?

What moral theory are you operating under?
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@Double_R
I'm not sure you can distill someone's "core values" simply by observing a single snapshot of their life experience.
That’s the whole point. For Person B this was just a snap shot. For Person A it wasn’t.
Are you familiar with the Legendary "Robin Hood"?
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@Double_R
That’s the whole point. For Person B this was just a snap shot. For Person A it wasn’t.
Yes, what we've learned is that person (B) is an irresponsible lunatic with no impulse control.

Impulse control is quantifiable and is a primary predictor of anti-social and aberrant behavior.

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@3RU7AL
How does "ordering food" increase the penalty for "eating food" when "ordering food" itself is NOT punishable at all when the "food is NOT eaten".
It doesn’t. If the crime was never committed there is nothing to punish. As far as why it matters whether there was intent, we just went through this.

Let me ask you... do you believe there is a difference between a bad person and a person who did a bad thing? If so, what is that difference?

I used to think I could predict someone else's actions by their intentions alone.
Predicting actions had nothing to do with this. Our conversation is about whether we can tell someone’s intent, and whether intent matters when judging someone’s actions.

You then went on about how you go about loaning things away. That had nothing to do with my question. I would all them again but you inadvertently answered it...

It's easy to think that people who disappoint you were never sincere in the first place.

But experience has taught me this is not the case.
How do you know this? Judging ones sincerity is judging ones intent.

How is my example disqualified as "just semantics" and your example (which is functionally identical) is somehow immune to the exact same objection.
You are equating two things that are very different by calling them the same thing. That’s like equating a bank robber and a shoplifter cause they’re both thieves. I call that semantics, you can call it something else if you like.

This was in reference to my pointing out that Person B acted purely out of his circumstances. I was talking about immediate circumstances. The day to day things that change on a dime, like the route you happened to be walking. You then equated that to person A’s circumstances, as in his position in life and the environment he lived within. Those are entirely different things. The former tests your impulses, the latter tests your character as a human being.

Why would premeditation INCREASE punishment?
Have you never done something in the spur of the moment and immediately regretted it? Have you never taken time to think about something and then realized whatever you were thinking is a bad idea?

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@Double_R
Let me ask you... do you believe there is a difference between a bad person and a person who did a bad thing? If so, what is that difference?
Phenomenal question.

Is a "bad" person capable of "good" deeds?

Is a "good" person capable of "bad" deeds?
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@Double_R
Predicting actions had nothing to do with this. Our conversation is about whether we can tell someone’s intent, and whether intent matters when judging someone’s actions.
Predicting actions is the entire point.

You seem to be suggesting that someone who consciously plans a crime is MORELIKELY to commit a crime in the future.

You seem to be suggesting that someone who consciously plans a crime is MOREDANGEROUS somehow and this warrants increased penalty.
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@Double_R
It's easy to think that people who disappoint you were never sincere in the first place.

But experience has taught me this is not the case.
How do you know this? Judging ones sincerity is judging ones intent.
Do you believe someone can accurately judge the sincerity of their own intent?

I've observed myself on both sides of the hypothetical transaction.
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@Double_R
This was in reference to my pointing out that Person B acted purely out of his circumstances. I was talking about immediate circumstances. The day to day things that change on a dime, like the route you happened to be walking. You then equated that to person A’s circumstances, as in his position in life and the environment he lived within. Those are entirely different things. The former tests your impulses, the latter tests your character as a human being.
Yes, what we've learned is that person (B) is an irresponsible lunatic with no impulse control.

Impulse control is quantifiable and is a primary predictor of anti-social and aberrant behavior.

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@Double_R
Why would premeditation INCREASE punishment?
Have you never done something in the spur of the moment and immediately regretted it? Have you never taken time to think about something and then realized whatever you were thinking is a bad idea?
Yes, what we've learned is that person (B) is an irresponsible lunatic with no impulse control.

Impulse control is quantifiable and is a primary predictor of anti-social and aberrant behavior.

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@Double_R
For example,

A computer program that determines your credit score.

Ideally the computer would treat everyone "equally" (but not really equally because then everyone would have the same credit score).

Ideally the computer would apply the same factors the same weight for everyone.

BUT THE PART WE FORGET IS THE HIDDEN AXIOMS OF THE COMPUTER PROGRAMMER.

Just because the program isn't INTENTIONALLY unfair, this immunity to INTENTIONALITY does not mean that the computer program IS ACTUALLY AND OBJECTIVELY FAIR.
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@3RU7AL
Let me ask you... do you believe there is a difference between a bad person and a person who did a bad thing? If so, what is that difference?
Phenomenal question
Great, so do you have an answer?

Is a "bad" person capable of "good" deeds?

Is a "good" person capable of "bad" deeds?
Yes to both. We judge individuals based on the totality of their actions with regards to their intent. Why does intent come into the equation? Because there is a difference between someone who does a bad thing on purpose vs. someone who does a bad thing by accident. Or, at least I used to think we could all agree on that...

Impulse control is quantifiable and is a primary predictor of anti-social and aberrant behavior.
Yes, it is also a skill that can be learned. Therefore the difference between someone who suffers from impulse control has a path to improvement. Someone who acts badly with malice and forethought has no path because they don’t want one.

Just because the program isn't INTENTIONALLY unfair, this immunity to INTENTIONALITY does not mean that the computer program IS ACTUALLY AND OBJECTIVELY FAIR.
That depends on how you are determining what is fair. The program calculates based on the premises imported into it, so late payment will cost you X amount of points no matter who has one. Whether X is fair is an entirely different question.

I fail to see how this relates.
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@Double_R
Let me ask you... do you believe there is a difference between a bad person and a person who did a bad thing? If so, what is that difference?
We judge individuals based on the totality of their actions with regards to their intent. Why does intent come into the equation? Because there is a difference between someone who does a bad thing on purpose vs. someone who does a bad thing by accident. Or, at least I used to think we could all agree on that...
Do you think that most people who do "bad" things also have "bad" intentions?

Are you familiar with the Legendary "Robin Hood"?
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@3RU7AL
@Double_R
Because there is a difference between someone who does a bad thing on purpose vs. someone who does a bad thing by accident.
Perhaps it would facilitate the conversation to state plainly exactly what that difference is, how we can FUNCTIONALLY tell the difference between the two states of affairs and what, if any, specific course of action this would seem to dictate.
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@Double_R
Impulse control is quantifiable and is a primary predictor of anti-social and aberrant behavior.
Yes, it is also a skill that can be learned.
It's more of a habit that can be reinforced.

Therefore the difference between someone who suffers from impulse control has a path to improvement.
And what exactly is that "path to improvement"?

Are they perhaps court ordered to be treated for dopamine addiction?

Someone who acts badly with malice and forethought has no path because they don’t want one.
Anyone with adequate risk aversion AND adequate impulse control will not be caught committing any crimes (but they may still be falsely convicted since there is no way to mitigate the risk of a false conviction).

Let's imagine they are not captured.

Person (A) may decide the risk of another heist is NOT worth the potential reward (especially with the inherent risks involved with laundering and spending the loot).

Person (B) may impulsively commit more crimes because apparently they can get away with it, since they got away with it so easily the first time.

Person (B) is clearly a greater threat to the peaceful function of a society.
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@secularmerlin
Because there is a difference between someone who does a bad thing on purpose vs. someone who does a bad thing by accident.
Perhaps it would facilitate the conversation to state plainly exactly what that difference is, how we can FUNCTIONALLY tell the difference between the two states of affairs and what, if any, specific course of action this would seem to dictate.
Usually the "planner" either provides evidence (notes, diagrams, phone calls or other communication) or simply admits to concocting a plan.

My original hypothetical was formed around the idea of someone who either claims there was no plan (and was careful to not leave any evidence of a plan) or planned a crime they did NOT commit.

For example, it is illegal to threaten to "kill the president", apparently you will be investigated by the FBI if anyone makes such a threat (even if your "plan" has no specifics).

HOwEver, apparently someone can write script that gets optioned and financed into a major motion picture where the main character creates an elaborate and shockingly realistic plan to "kill the president".
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@Double_R
Just because the program isn't INTENTIONALLY unfair, this immunity to INTENTIONALITY does not mean that the computer program IS ACTUALLY AND OBJECTIVELY FAIR.
That depends on how you are determining what is fair. The program calculates based on the premises imported into it, so late payment will cost you X amount of points no matter who has one. Whether X is fair is an entirely different question.

I fail to see how this relates.
Human decision making and action is NOT fundamentally distinguishable from the "purely neutral" computer program.
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@3RU7AL
Human decision making and action is NOT fundamentally distinguishable from the "purely neutral" computer program.
In some circumstances that may be true, while in others, and given enough consideration, ove enough time,  we can winnow out the differrence between AI  decission making process and the humans decission making processes.

This is what occurred i the original Blade Runner {  Harrison Ford } with the AI droid being subjected to psyhcological profile of questions to determine if it was AI or human.  So it shoots the human and now were left to ask it why.  They didnt go into that in the movie.

Roger Penrose's lays out the four things AI can never do that hwhich humans do, in regard to Artificial consciousness vs human consciousness with full access to their mind accessing and emotional faculties.

1} artistic appraisal

2}

3}

4}

See LINK to this....Lucas-Penrose argument abuot Godells Theorm.    ......"That is, his result shows that either (i) the human mind is not a Turing machine or (ii) there are certain unsolvable mathematical problems.  However, Lucas (1998: paragraph 1) goes even further and argues “it is clear that Gödel thought the second disjunct false,” that is Gödel “was implicitly denying that any Turing machine could emulate the powers of the human mind.”  So, perhaps the first thinker to endorse a version of the Lucas-Penrose"..... argument was Gödel himself.

and

..."5. Other Anti-Mechanism Arguments
Finally, there are some alternative anti-mechanism arguments to Lucas-Penrose.  Two are briefly mentioned.  McCall (1999) has formulated an interesting argument.  A Turing machine can only know what it can prove, and to a Turing machine, provability would be tantamount to truth.  But Gödel’s theorem seems to imply that truth is not always provability.  The human mind can handle cases in which truth and provability diverge.  A Turing machine, however, cannot.  But then we cannot be Turing machines.  A second alternative anti-mechanism argument is formulated in Cogburn and Megill (2010).  They argue that, given certain central tenets of Intuitionism, the human mind cannot be a Turing machine."...