XMAS 2020 Mafia - Day Phase 1

Author: Danielle

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#331
LikeMagic
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@ILikePie5

Normally I agree but you have to look at this specific case. That1 is a noob. Plus why talk about you being a TP when you’re going to be lynched anyways. There’s no use for her to “mislynch” you cause you’re going to be lynched eventually anyways. 
The specific mechanic That1 was claiming was a mechanic that would convince people not to lynch me. Regardless, I do not think this warrants much further discussion. I do not think That1 is a priority. nonetheless, there should be clarity in future DPs as to what she specifically was baselessly alleging, which was a mechanic that would warrant keeping me - an anti-town role- in the game.
#332
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@WaterPhoenix
I am not voting Bullish. He has done nothing scummy to warrant lynch yet.
#333
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@ILikePie5
So there is nothing inherently town about this behavior from white, seems to be what you are conceding. 
#334
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@WaterPhoenix
Reads:

Speed - Null - Not much to analyze and he’s a hard player to read anyways

Drafter - Null - Not much to analyze, and his behavior is hard to read because it’s consistent with his scum and town play

Supa - Null - People are giving him credit for the Santa claim but I don’t think it means anything when Danielle has said she gave scum fake claims

Water - Lean Scum - it’s just the inconsistencies for me. At some point he’s going to have to clean up his play if he is town, but as of now he should be lynched just cause it’s scummy and “water is stupid” is not a good argument imo. I’ve been saying this for like the past 3 games

Whiteflame- Null - His behavior is consistent with his last 3-4 games. There’s so specific scum meta to analyze because Lone Wolf can’t talk to their partners to strategize. I’ve seen some talk of him being Mime, but he could just as easily be town or scum.

LikeMagic - Town - Hated just has too much risk to he claimed if you’re scum. Danielle did say she liked the Mime mechanic a lot, but there’s nothing to indicate she’s solely focused on getting lynched; rather she’s scum hunting even though I disagree with her.

Lunatic - Lean Town - His level of analysis seems consistent with his town play. I remember the long posts of argumentation back in the day. 

Oromagi - Confirmed Town - Would like more from him though because he’s our only confirmed town and his input would be more genuine than everyone else.

MisterChris - Null - Inactivity 

Bullish - FoS - Hard to tell cause I don’t really remember his metas. I do remember him being aggressive as a town player which lends credibility to his town read but at the same town it’s perfect cover for scum and I don’t recall his scum meta.

That1 - Lean Town - The fact she mentioned that Danielle hates Jesters just screams town to me. The mime theory could be true just like any theory but no point in pursuing it at this moment.
#335
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@LikeMagic
So there is nothing inherently town about this behavior from white, seems to be what you are conceding. 
Yup his behavior is consistent with his play as Mime, Town, and Lone Wolf until investigation got him guilty on that where he panic claimed Seer.

I think there are bigger fish to fry at the moment namely Water
#336
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@LikeMagic
What are your thoughts on Water
#337
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@LikeMagic
So there is nothing inherently town about this behavior from white, seems to be what you are conceding. 
And nothing inherently scummy
#338
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@Lunatic
She said there was potential for you to be jester, but in the same post said it was unlikely. Waterphoenix actually bought into the theory that you were jester more than she did.
That noncommital way of planting a seed of TP is exactly what I would expect scum to do, for various motivations. That said, I am satisfied at this point with her explanation that she is very wary of this mechanic since it won in one of her first games and recently. Also, she's a noob so not sure she is capable of that level of strategyl. Any discussion I have had on the topic was really directed at any argument that it was scummy for Bullish to point this out as a potential scum tell, especially since Bullish has historically been pretty "bullish" in his scum hunting as town in games I played with him. 

The OP definitely doesn't imply theme analysis is foolhardy, it specifically says " I also gave scum options of fake character + role claims in this game, but you are welcome to focus on theme analysis if you wish". Danielle is a pretty big advocate of mods giving fake claims. Also not sure this means that we can't use any theme analysis, because in a 12 player game there is probably either 3 mafia, or 2 and 1 third bases on common balance practices for 12 player games.
I am generally skeptical of theme analysis in forum games. It is very hard to get right. There is a lot of mod psych., plus there are so many variations of what could be scum v. town. In a game where we know that there are fake claims, I find it even less useful and more likely to be a waist of time. Danielle has historically been opposed to characters being capable of breaking the game, so it's more likely in my mind that scum either all have fake character claims or have enough of them to fake claim for whichever scum was unlucky enough to not get one. 

The reason I was suspicious of that1 is that it looked like she was setting herself up for a soft claim from a nightmare before christmas, and I think it's obvious at this point based on my PFP that I am Jack Skellington. I was wondering if maybe she didn't pick up on that when she said that. What do you think of her nightmare before christmas post? Am I looking too much into that?
I think this was just a silly comment. I did not read it as a scum slip. I think it is worth cataloging along with her weird mime argument, but to me it is not inherently scummy. I need other behavior and play from her still. Nightmare before christmas is not an obvious christmas reference to me, but I can see it being for others and her just thinking that it would be a scummy xmas reference worth joking about. Also, I totally missed your avatar thing. Weird character if you're townie. Interesting, you're one of my biggest town reads so I am not sure what to make of this. I never saw the movie so, I am not sure if the character is evil/bad, I just assume he is. 
#339
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@That1User
You're a girl? she/her? Just clearing up some confusion lol
#340
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@That1User
No pressure to respond if you don't want to btw
#341
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@Speedrace
You say to the doctor and debater who has a wife at 9pm :|
Weird that you feel the need to explain his behavior for him. It is a scum move to make a quick response or just avoid the heat entirely and wait in the wings for a subject change or for the heat to die down. I too have a big kid job and a wife, but the same scum tactics apply. 
#342
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@Bullish
Not removing my vote from White
#343
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@drafterman
what is your basis for wanting a claim from water? Are you asking for a full claim?

What are your full reads before this DP ends?
#344
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@LikeMagic
Weird that you feel the need to explain his behavior for him. It is a scum move to make a quick response or just avoid the heat entirely and wait in the wings for a subject change or for the heat to die down. I too have a big kid job and a wife, but the same scum tactics apply. 
I just find it incredibly annoying when people act as if players don't have lives outside of this game. You're tunneling him and picking up random scraps of behavior to use against him for no reason
#345
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@ILikePie5
I could see either water or speed as scum, but not both. I do not think there is enough information to justify a lynch. The inno comment was not scummy. It just sounded stupid. I think the way Drafter reacted to the comment was more scummy than the comment itself. That said, I have no town read on him and he is in my FOS pile. 
#346
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@LikeMagic
Not removing my vote from White
No one is joining you and we've all told you that your read is completely incorrect. You're wasting your vote
#347
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@Speedrace
Other people were using she/her to talk about That1. I have no independent basis for using them, and hope I did not offend if I was wrong to do so. 
#348
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At this point, I am not brought with enough evidence to come to a lynch. I have no problem VTNL'ing in this situation as well. While I would say we policy lynch Magic, I think her insight is helping town and lynching her now when she could be useful in DP2 is much better. If we can't think of a lynch then, I'd say we policy lynch Magic, but with results, we might have a clear cut lynch. I think it's better to VTNL since there is no clear lynch

VTNL
#349
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@LikeMagic
Other people were using she/her to talk about That1. I have no independent basis for using them, and hope I did not offend if I was wrong to do so. 
Wasn't about your use of the pronouns, I was talking with Supa and Danielle in the live mafia Discord and we were just wondering so I asked lol
Topic's author
#350
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Vote Count

Water (Pie, Speed, Bullish, oromagi) -- 4/7 votes 
No Lynch (whiteflame, Supa) -- 2/7 votes 
Bullish (Lunatic, that1user)  -- 2/7 votes
whiteflame (LikeMagic) -- 1/7 votes


Three hours left in the day phase. 
#351
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@Speedrace
I just find it incredibly annoying when people act as if players don't have lives outside of this game. You're tunneling him and picking up random scraps of behavior to use against him for no reason
This is a complete misrepresentation and an attempt to undermine well thought out and fully articulated analysis. I have fully read every post he has made. He fluff posted for the first 3-4 pages. He then played narrator, making no effort to scum hunt, either providing general info or echoing statements and sentiments from other people. With any slightly novel comments, he immediately backed down and 180'd when challenged even slightly. These are all scum tells on their own and are used as tactics to stay under the radar as scum. He has used them all in one game. He has said nothing to explain this behavior, especially is 180. His response was a half-assed argument that it was not a 180, which is false. When I brought a real challenge to affiliation, he returned, made one post, then disappeared. Another scum tactic used when you hope other conversations about other viable topics will take precedent over the scum read on you if you just "remove yourself" from the conversation long enough.
#352
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@Speedrace
Cool story bro. 
#353
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@drafterman
Please give your full reads before the end of this DP
#354
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@whiteflame
Please give your full reads before the end of this DP
#355
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@That1User
I believe I asked you this yesterday, and I do not recall a response. Please give your full reads before the end of this DP.
#356
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@Vader
What are your reads. I agree with vtnling over lynching any of the candidates there are actual wagons on at this stage, but who is in your town pile? 
#357
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It is worth highlighting that Speed is trying to misrepresent and discredit the reads of one of the two players he should feel comfortable working with and trusting the reads from. Everyone agrees I am more likely town than not based on my claim and behavior frankly. Yet Speed's big contribution is dismissing one of the other "known" townies and trying to make people not listen to them. 
#358
Speedrace
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@LikeMagic
This is a complete misrepresentation and an attempt to undermine well thought out and fully articulated analysis. I have fully read every post he has made. He fluff posted for the first 3-4 pages. He then played narrator, making no effort to scum hunt, either providing general info or echoing statements and sentiments from other people. With any slightly novel comments, he immediately backed down and 180'd when challenged even slightly. These are all scum tells on their own and are used as tactics to stay under the radar as scum. He has used them all in one game. He has said nothing to explain this behavior, especially is 180. His response was a half-assed argument that it was not a 180, which is false. When I brought a real challenge to affiliation, he returned, made one post, then disappeared. Another scum tactic used when you hope other conversations about other viable topics will take precedent over the scum read on you if you just "remove yourself" from the conversation long enough.
So every single person who has played with him before, seen this behavior before, and saw that he was town are just idiots who are incorrectly misremembering.

Besides that, that was not a misrepresentation. I made that post specifically in response to your "he's gone = he's scum" argument because it's dumb
#359
Speedrace
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@LikeMagic
It is worth highlighting that Speed is trying to misrepresent and discredit the reads of one of the two players he should feel comfortable working with and trusting the reads from. Everyone agrees I am more likely town than not based on my claim and behavior frankly.
I can town read someone and completely disagree with their reads at the same time lol

Yet Speed's big contribution is dismissing one of the other "known" townies and trying to make people not listen to them. 
Literally everyone else told you the same thing before I did.
#360
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@LikeMagic
Town pile is you, Luna, and Pie

Scum reads are That1, whiteflame, WaterPhoenix.

Rest is null