Anime Waifus Mafia DP2

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Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
You love doing gambits as town lol
What I do as town aren't gambits. Gambits involve some form of risk
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@Speedrace
I'll need to check that out. My experience with Sci-Fi isn't particularly prolific, but I'm enjoying reading Ready Player Two right now (the first book is amazing, don't let the movie taint your perception).
Vader
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VOTE COUNT
That1User [4/6] Ragnar, Speedrace, iLikePie5, drafterman
Speedrace [1/6] That1User


ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
THE RED QUEEN

I've never read a better sci-fi series
That’s actually next on my list. Never finished that series either. Got up to Kings Cage but the next books hadn’t come out yet.
That1User
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@Speedrace
What I do as town aren't gambits. Gambits involve some form of risk
Yet you're risking a town NP3 bride, unvote or you're scum
That1User
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@Danielle
I think you and/or Speed is lying about your role claims. You could be a scum team but I doubt it
Speed is lying, dreamer is at least plausible to believe, mine isn't, and scum is capitalizing on this 
This gives your Bride claim slightly less credibility when I analyze game mechanics. You lying about your role removes further credibility, and more than that you seemingly tried to soft claim vanilla which I find more scummy than claiming vanilla. Had you claimed vanilla outright I could potentially buy the argument that you were lying to hide your real role. However the fact that you soft claimed looks like you were actively trying to buy town cred and not just avoid being a mafia NK.  
I soft claimed vanilla because Lunatic was NK'd as a vanilla I thought outright claiming a vanilla would = the same thing but still be less likely than being bride

I also think it's weird that your Bride role goes into effect on NP3. I've never seen that before regarding this role, and the only explanation is that it buys you time from being lynched. So all of these factors (game mechanics + your soft claim lie + convenient NP3 qualifier + you calling out everyone as scummy + you admittedly voting for drafter out of "panic" for a "gambit"  + switching to vote for Speed pretty quickly) makes it seem like we have no choice to lynch you. I personally have to cast my vote by 4:30 EST as I have an appointment this evening. 
I find it weird too none of this makes sense, must be unprecedented, something Supa came up with for this game. You do have a choice in lynching me! All this means is I'm an erratic player, I can prove to you that I am the NP3 bride, either by you lynching me or letting me live to NP3, hopefully I can live to confirm others. 
Speedrace
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@That1User
I soft claimed vanilla because Lunatic was NK'd as a vanilla I thought outright claiming a vanilla would = the same thing but still be less likely than being bride
Maf didn't know he was vanilla, if they had they likely wouldn't have killed him lol
whiteflame
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@That1User
There's a point past which being antagonistic just makes us think we're progressively more justified in lynching you. Saying that Speed is scum because he persists in a vote that 3 other people share isn't a particularly persuasive argument to begin with, especially when there are yet more people waiting in the wings to lynch you now. Not saying there's a whole lot you could do to prevent a lynch at this point - I feel that boat has already sailed - but Speed is just going to laugh at this. You're not going to convince him to rescind his vote just because it potentially implicates him and the 5 other people who end up voting to lynch you. Even if it ends up being the case that you have been telling the truth, if your goal is to vindicate yourself, then you're backsliding.
That1User
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@whiteflame
 What I do as town aren't gambits. Gambits involve some form of risk
-Speed

Also Speed: *Risks a town NP3 Bride from being lynched*


Speed is risking a bride being lynched here, this is a gambit
Town Speed doesn't gambit
By Speed's own logic, Speed is scum 
(Unless he unvotes)
That1User
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@Speedrace
Maf didn't know he was vanilla, if they had they likely wouldn't have killed him lol
Yes but there's already precedence of mafia killing vanilla, didn't want to risk it with a hard claim
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@That1User
By Speed's own logic, he doesn't consider this a risk, and therefore not a gambit. You can claim that there's a risk, but you can't just assume his mindset to suit your point.
That1User
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@whiteflame
By Speed's own logic, he doesn't consider this a risk, and therefore not a gambit. You can claim that there's a risk, but you can't just assume his mindset to suit your point.
How is lynching a claimed NP3 bride not a risk? Not considering it a risk does not invalidate it being a risk, because it is still a risk regardless of perception
Bride is pretty powerful, risk is involved in taking out a town power role, this can make mafia win or lead down that path
whiteflame
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@That1User
Look, you clearly want to make a point that has no basis in this decision. You want to challenge Speed on his perception of this as a risk? Go ahead. It's not going to accomplish anything beyond possibly calling out a likely unimportant behavioral read from Speed, while it makes you look pedantic and defensive. He's not the only one who is suspicious of you, and you should know by now that he's not going to change his mind about this. The most you stand to gain from this is to put some suspicion on Speed, which may be important for later DPs, but not this one.
That1User
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@Danielle
Do you still scum read Speed? Who else?

VOTE COUNT
That1User [4/6] Ragnar, Speedrace, iLikePie5, drafterman
This list is a pretty good indication of who scum is, they know I am innocent and are set to take advantage of my erratic mistakes and get me out in a mislynch. Ragnar has been pretty methodical and elusive, sitting back and biding his time to strike and went with WF to take me out while WF unvoted to reconsider. Of these I think he's the most likely besides Speed.

ILikePie is potentially the SK as ZeroTwo but his vig claim lines up, I semi-believe him for now but I don't discount him being the TP by a mile, as SK/vig he has incentive to lynch rn.

Drafter I'm completely unknown on, no idea who he is, all Ik is that he is a soft DP2 lynchproof, willing to pressure claim him but as drafter said he cannot be pressured today
Danielle
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@That1User
I can prove to you that I am the NP3 bride, either by you lynching me or letting me live to NP3
You would have to live to DP4 to prove your alleged role, which saves you from being lynched this DP and discounts you for consideration next DP. Depending on how many people are in the mafia, it could be a decent trade off to guarantee you living two more day phases, especially if we mislynch this DP and the next. 

For the third time: why do you town read Pie, warren and WaterPhoenix? I'm curious. 
That1User
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@Danielle
 why do you town read Pie, warren and WaterPhoenix? I'm curious. 
I don't, I voted WP for most of this DP in an effort to confirm Speed based on WP's lynch flip and suspected his redirect to Croc from Speed, drafter's 124 post of mafia being between Speed, WP, and Pie was pretty likely and I wanted to test it out based on that belief.

Warren I'm completely null on, no idea where he lands atm

Pie is only because his town vig role adds up, but I don't completely trust that because of the distinct posibility of ZeroTwo being SK, so really, I don't town read anyone 
That1User
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You would have to live to DP4 to prove your alleged role, which saves you from being lynched this DP and discounts you for consideration next DP. Depending on how many people are in the mafia, it could be a decent trade off to guarantee you living two more day phases, especially if we mislynch this DP and the next. 
Yes it would absolutely need you to have faith in me until that point, I'm interested in finding scum, that's why I'm fighting so hard not to be lynched this DP
That1User
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@whiteflame
Saying that Speed is scum because he persists in a vote that 3 other people share isn't a particularly persuasive argument to begin with, especially when there are yet more people waiting in the wings to lynch you now.
Yeah this is my exact fear, Speed being mafia and being covered by plausible denialbility, no one can blame him because I have so many on me
That1User
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@Danielle
Someone probably roleblocked you, who do you think it is?
warren42
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When does phase end? Need to know if I have a bit or need to immerse myself rn
warren42
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Oh 8 EST I have a little bit
Danielle
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@That1User
Someone probably roleblocked you, who do you think it is?

I don't really have a scum pile atm. I have a lean town pile and "people I'm willing to lynch this DP" pile, which you're in. 
Danielle
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I'd really like to hear from WaterPhoenix before voting. 
That1User
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@Danielle
I don't really have a scum pile atm. I have a lean town pile and "people I'm willing to lynch this DP" pile, which you're in. 
Who else is in it that pile?
Danielle
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@That1User
Reminder that I have to sign off at 4:30 EST cuz I have an in-person meeting at 5. At this point I'm most comfortable lynching that1user for reasons I outlined in post #488 and which Speed outlined in #461. In the worst case scenario she's town, we get more info from lynching her than anyone else given how much discussion was focused on her this DP. 

I'm also wary about WaterPhoenix, particularly post #200 and the way attention shifted off WP to that1user. Regarding use of his role, WP said "ya but it's an anti-town role so since i thought you were scum i redirected your kill onto the most anti-town person in my opinion. i thought he was heavily lean town but the fact that he's an anti town role makes it so that i'd pick him to redirect to rather than any of you." If he thought Croc heavily leaned town, why use the role at all? Why not just waive? (Note Speed somewhat defended WP not waiving.) 

And also re: Speed, in post #461 he claimed that1user is behaving "exactly like she did in Civil War Mafia" but in post #385 he said he scum read her cuz  "I've never seen her act like this." So which is it: is she acting like she did previously as scum or acting in a way he's never seen? If she turns up town it could raise concerns about my town read of Speed but again this goes back to why I think we get the most information out of that1user's lynch. 

As far as who else I'd be willing to lynch this DP: drafter out of principle, WP for weird behavior including disappearing under some pressure + having a relatively scummy role, and possibly Pie for potentially being TP or having an extra mafia killing capability. Out of these options I think you're the best choice for aforementioned reasons. Who would YOU be willing to lynch and do you think you can convince everyone else to lynch that person within the next ~4 hours? Cuz I'm signing off soon. 

Danielle
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Nvm I see what WP means. I just looked up the role and it's not necessarily scum... disregard that last analysis; let me think about it. 
Speedrace
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@Danielle
And also re: Speed, in post #461 he claimed that1user is behaving "exactly like she did in Civil War Mafia" but in post #385 he said he scum read her cuz  "I've never seen her act like this." So which is it: is she acting like she did previously as scum or acting in a way he's never seen? If she turns up town it could raise concerns about my town read of Speed but again this goes back to why I think we get the most information out of that1user's lynch. 
Claiming a new role is what she did in Civil War mafia, I've never seen the rest of her behavior
Danielle
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Nvm scratch that my analysis about WP stands. It's helpful that he would redirect a kill from Speed, but in looking up the role it doesn't only apply to kills. What if a Tracker had targeted Speed but was redirected to Croc who didn't visit anyone, and Speed claimed in the DP that he had visited someone the night before. The Tracker might call it out as a lie. So I feel like interfering at all is very risky unless you're confident you're gonna redirect a NK. Hmm. I have like 30 mins to think about this. 
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@Danielle
Nvm scratch that my analysis about WP stands. It's helpful that he would redirect a kill from Speed, but in looking up the role it doesn't only apply to kills. What if a Tracker had targeted Speed but was redirected to Croc who didn't visit anyone, and Speed claimed in the DP that he had visited someone the night before. The Tracker might call it out as a lie. So I feel like interfering at all is very risky unless you're confident you're gonna redirect a NK.
I have my misgivings about WP, too, though I will note that, at least within the context of this game, if a Tracker had been redirected, they would have known about it. Supa clarified that anyone who had their role redirected would be alerted to said redirect. That being said, it's extremely likely that WP did not have that information before he redirected this night action, so that information should not inform any perception of WP's choice to redirect in NP1.
That1User
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@Danielle
 Who would YOU be willing to lynch and do you think you can convince everyone else to lynch that person within the next ~4 hours? Cuz I'm signing off soon. 
Ideally WP, WP failing to waive the redirect and redirecting to Croc bleeds scum, have to stick with my original vote here, you are right about my lynch having some info utility, happy it won't go to complete waste if I am lynched, hopefully not tho
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VTL WaterPhoenix