Anime Waifus Mafia DP2

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#421
Danielle
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@That1User
In a gambit that clearly failed, drafter is the great unknown here

How was voting for drafter a gambit? It looks like creating an easy distraction so if he refuses to participate and creates tension, it naturally shifts attention away from you.  

For me it's not you voting drafter that's weird - it's you voting Speed. A few of us have explained why we town read him, yet you swiftly moved off drafter and voted Speed. This was right after you said to look out for a whiteflame and Ragnar scum team in post 412, when in post #390 you said you "really believed" scum was between Chris and I. So basically within a matter of minutes you called scum out between drafter, Speed, Chris, myself, Ragnar and whiteflame which is 6/10 of us. It looks like you're panicking and just name dropping a bunch to confuse people after your flip. 
#422
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@That1User
Warren, Pie and WaterPhoenix are the only people you don't scum read. Why is that? 
#423
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@That1User
Unvote me, at this point scum can come in and mislynch
As for this statement... doesn't that assume that all the people who are currently on the vote against you are town? You keep throwing around claims of who is scum in this game, yet you're being extremely inconsistent in that regard. Moreover, even if this was true, that's part of the process of narrowing down targets. It would not be the first game where I've seen scum hammer a townie and used it as a means to lynch them in the next phase. Not that I think that's what is going to happen here, of course. I think everyone currently on the lynch is either solid town or leaning that way, and I suspect you've now induced sufficient suspicion that most if not all the votes will be town. I still wouldn't be surprised if scum hopped on the lynch at this stage to make themselves look innocent (almost certain we're going to see the line "if I was scum, why would I have lynched my partner?" at some point, whether it's warranted or not), but that's largely because you've made yourself such a clear target. If they know you're going to get lynched anyway, might as well get in on it to cover their own tracks.
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#424
Vader
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VOTE COUNT
WaterPhoenix [2/6] iLikePie5, drafterman
That1User [3/6] Ragnar, whiteflame, Speedrace
Speedrace [1/6] That1User

THE DP will be ending in in roughly 11 hours

#425
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In case anyone needs further convincing, I noticed a bit ago that Supa had changed his profile picture to... Rias Gremory, That1User's character claim. It somewhat beggars belief that he actively selected a character who is in this game as his profile pic, but even if he did, I have an even harder time believing that a character who is probably among his favorite waifus is somehow vanilla in this game. I won't dismiss the possibility that Supa's just trolling us, and I do not know precisely when his profile pic was changed, but this in combination with That1's behavior stands out to me.
#426
MisterChris
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I'm definitely scumreading That1 for the combo of shoddy role justification and sporadic behavior that matches her behavior in Civil War Generals mafia very closely (I should know, I witnessed the mafia end of it)

If she flips town it won't be that big of a blow since she's claimed vanilla. Furthermore, that would be good indication that Supa didn't make the best justifications in this game... So it will let us know how much weight to give crappy justifications in sniffing out scum. 

I'm seeing large upsides and not too many downsides, plus we need some PoE. 

VTL That1User.
#427
drafterman
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Catching up
#428
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@MisterChris
So it will let us know how much weight to give crappy justifications in sniffing out scum. 
Shouldn't you have an idea about that based on your own character + justification? o_O 
#429
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@Danielle
Shouldn't you have an idea about that based on your own character + justification? o_O 

My justification is good but not out of the park, which seems to be consistent with other townies so far, but who knows honestly. 

All I'm saying is that if That1 flipped town instead of scum it would tell us more about how much weight to give people's justifications, as let's admit, hers is pretty crap. Otherwise, it indicates we're on the right track with getting character claims and going off of those + behavioral reads. 
#430
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@Danielle
Otherwise, it indicates we're on the right track with getting character claims and going off of those + behavioral reads. 

Although admittedly, there's really not much else to do even if she flips town. Just means we should lean more on the behavioral side of things I suppose
#431
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@Danielle
@warren42
@MisterChris
Danielle:
With 13 players Pie could be a TP serial killer, however I dunno if he would have brought attention to himself by shooting NP1 if he's TP. I guess he'd have to prove he's the vig if he was gonna claim that.
He claimed because at the beginning of the DP I said the Vig should claim or we'll treat him as a hostile third party if he claimed later. He might still be SK, but we know who he is. As long as Water is alive he should waive his action but regardless, he has to play town sided to help get maf. He's under watch and under control.

Warren:
What's all this talk about croc being a bad result? We had the vig shoot the hated. That's the optimal scenario.
No, the optimal scenario would be having the vig shoot mafia.

MisterChris:
OK drafterman refusing to character claim hits me as scummy asf. Gonna keep reading to see how this pans out
Why? Actually articulate the reasons here. You have this habit of just saying things without actually tying it back to how it actually pertains to a game of mafia. You did this last game with the demanding I out the cop "just to be sure" or some shit. Actually ground it in some reason other than it just feels wrong.

You see back in the day, when I was learning mafia from the venerable bluesteel I was told not to claim easily. That readily and freely claiming is the scum tell because scum, if they have a viable claim, wants to get it out there to gain town cred, whereas a townie wants to withhold the little information they have from mafia and aren't sure to trust.

Other than some internet rando pinging me and demanding I claim, there has been no pressure. None. People have whined and moan about me not claiming but there actually hasn't been any substantial pressure for me to do so. If people really wanted my claim, they'd act like it. This demand for my claim was half-hearted at best and just mindless: "Oh, we don't know what to do, guess we'll push for claims" which only feeds into my previous point that getting claims is what we do when we have nothing else to go on. And we have plenty to go on.

You want to pressure me, pressure me. But I'm not getting lynched today. And since I'm not getting lynched today, there isn't any pressure that really can be exerted on me, hence no reason to claim. I will claim when pressured, but it is not possible to pressure me.

RE: Justifications.

Justifications are admittedly weak, why are we still demanding them and wringing our hands over them? The justifications are shit. Move on.

RE: That1User

Holy hell that OMGUS. I don't think I've seen a case this bad since the 1912 Spanish OMGUS epidemic. The only cure is VTL That1User
#432
That1User
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@Danielle

A few of us have explained why we town read him, yet you swiftly moved off drafter and voted Speed. This was right after you said to look out for a whiteflame and Ragnar scum team in post 412, when in post #390 you said you "really believed" scum was between Chris and I
-->@Danielle@MisterChris@Ragnar
Can we vote That1 please?
I legit believe scum is between them
I believed mafia was one of you, either you, Chris, or Ragnar, WF/Ragnar is also a possibility, Speed being the most significant possibility as he controls town.

So basically within a matter of minutes you called scum out between drafter, Speed, Chris, myself, Ragnar and whiteflame which is 6/10 of us.
I'm not discounting the possibility of mafia for anyone here, all those potential combos made sense to me, Speed is the most crucial potential mafia here since he controls town, if he is mafia then mafia has won the game. This was me pleading to get votes off of me because I know I am town to potential scum, I don't want to be mislynched and have votes wasted on me

Warren, Pie and WaterPhoenix are the only people you don't scum read. Why is that? 
I had my vote on WP for most of the DP so clearly I scum read him, the Speed/WP connection is undeniable, if Speed or WP is scum then the other is likely scum. I believe Pie's vig claim and I'm null on Warren

How was voting for drafter a gambit?
It was a gambit to get votes off of me, cleary it failed, maybe it's  good that it did
#433
MisterChris
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OK Drafter HAS to have some special role that prevents his lynch. 
#434
That1User
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@MisterChris
If she flips town it won't be that big of a blow since she's claimed vanilla. 
It would be a blow, I'm vanilla right now, wait to kill me
#435
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@MisterChris
If I'm right about your role and justification, then I believe it will be pretty good - in fact, it will have been the best I've seen so far based on what I suspect is his reasoning (not that we've gotten a lot of those, but even on my town reads, the Lucy Heartfilia = Dreamer and the Lucoa = Redirector both seem a little strange). Assuming she flips scum, this would certainly give us some information on the weight we should apply to justifications, though I'm still going to take that info with a pretty large grain of salt. There's too much going on here that I'm not clear about. All the confirmed characters/roles make sense to me, and it's possible that some town are lying about their roles for the time being, but I can't be sure yet.
#436
That1User
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@drafterman
RE: That1User

Holy hell that OMGUS. I don't think I've seen a case this bad since the 1912 Spanish OMGUS epidemic. The only cure is VTL That1User

It's not an OMGUS, Speed legitimately has control of the town/votes, if he's mafia and we get him out then it's a huge win for town
#437
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@whiteflame
If I'm right about your role and justification, then I believe it will be pretty good - in fact, it will have been the best I've seen so far based on what I suspect is his reasoning (not that we've gotten a lot of those, but even on my town reads, the Lucy Heartfilia = Dreamer and the Lucoa = Redirector both seem a little strange)
Unvote me, I'm the NP3 bride, but I'm vanilla right now since I'm prevented from using my powers, does that claim make sense to you? 
#438
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@whiteflame
All the confirmed characters/roles make sense to me, and it's possible that some town are lying about their roles for the time being, but I can't be sure yet.
I semi-lied to avoid a night kill, somehow I'm going to be the lynch instead 
#439
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@whiteflame
Unvote. 

Bride is a powerful role. Does That1's claim add up? If so we can confirm it. 
#440
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@That1User
That makes more sense, I guess, but now I've got two new problems. One, I'm not sure why you waited so long to claim this. You've been under pressure over your vanilla claim for quite a while, and while this fits more of what you've been saying (maybe you were trying to just hint it? Honestly, it just made you look inconsistent), it also makes it look like a final gasp to prevent a lynch. Two... you're an NP3 Bride? I'm not terribly familiar with the role because I've never seen it played, but you're roleless until NP3? I've never heard of a delay lasting that long, though that may just be my own lack of experience. Anyone familiar with something like this?
#441
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@That1User
Unvote

I'm only doing this until I get info from others. This doesn't substantially alter my suspicions, personally.
#442
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@whiteflame
According to Drafter's mafia role list...
"You are the BRIDE. During the twilight phase you may choose another player to propose to. During the following night, the player may "accept" or "reject" the proposal. During the following day phase, if the player accepted, your role and the role of the chosen player will be revealed to the town. If the player did not accept, their rejection will be revealed to the town."

That's powerful af... Do you think it's worth taking the risk and letting her try and confirm it?
#443
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@MisterChris
Bride is a powerful role. Does That1's claim add up? If so we can confirm it. 
Yes, I (Rias), will do anything to love and support my lover Issei 
#444
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@That1User
Alright, having read a bit of the role, I'm now even more suspicious of the NP3 element. Please explain how the role works and what you can do during NP2 and NP3, as well as what should happen after that. Your role should describe it. If I don't get a clear full claim that matches the role, I'm replacing my vote.
#445
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@MisterChris
I agree, it is powerful and it makes more sense for the character. Trouble is, it doesn't allay any of my behavioral suspicions, and the NP3 element seems problematic to me. If I'm right, it will take 2 more NPs for us to get a confirmation. I don't know if that's worth waiting for, but I'll wait to see her response to my last post.
#446
That1User
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@whiteflame
I said "I love icecream"
Icecream being a reference to vanilla, love being a reference to marriage, I thought Speed would dream bride on me and would get the message

I also said something about protective role in a reference to protection 

Two... you're an NP3 Bride? I'm not terribly familiar with the role because I've never seen it played, but you're roleless until NP3?
Yes I am, this made me be prevented from using my power, effectively making me vanilla, I didn't lie when I said I was vanilla because I effectively am rn

One, I'm not sure why you waited so long to claim this. You've been under pressure over your vanilla claim for quite a while, and while this fits more of what you've been saying
I thought I'd stave off the pressure, I really, really did not want to claim this under any circumstance unless I was VTL-1, and I was, so I confessed to avoid me being hammered
#447
That1User
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@whiteflame
Alright, having read a bit of the role, I'm now even more suspicious of the NP3 element. Please explain how the role works and what you can do during NP2 and NP3, as well as what should happen after that. Your role should describe it. If I don't get a clear full claim that matches the role, I'm replacing my vote.
I can't do anything NP2, if I survive NP3, I may propose to a certain player. Player saying yes = my role and their role being revealed. Player saying no=Known town rejection I win with town
#448
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With 10 living players I assume there are 3-4 scum between maf and third party. We should definitely lynch today given a decent chance of hitting scum if we utilize some kind of POE (obviously the debate is about whom to exclude -- for instance I would not consider voting Speed this DP whereas that1user wants to lynch him). I also think lynching gives us info to analyze next DP, and we have decent options to choose from based on behavior + claims. At least 1 claim arguably has negative town utility (redirector) and losing a vanilla is not the same as losing a PR. 

I'm wary of Pie's vig claim but not sure if people want to pursue it. I would literally lynch drafter this DP for refusing to claim but I'm not sure people want to pursue it. I don't know how to read MisterChris' sudden activity and interest in the game when I have never seen him play before. I don't like whiteflame's emphasis on character claims, but it's not much different than MCU mafia iirc where I defended him doing this as town. I assume if you know the theme it might be hard not to read into it. However I don't like that WP and Ragnar are playing into that as well as other stuff like assuming mafia/town would not spell things correctly. To be clear (again I will repeat) I think mod psychology and outside ish like that is absolutely fair game in considerations, but I probs wouldn't mention it unless I had other strong points cuz it just seems kinda like low hanging fruit and reminiscent of the "Discord logic." Besides, I actually disagree that Supa is likely to misspell; I think he'd put a decent amount of consideration into his game and probs analyzed the roles/game a few times would be my guess. But I digress.

I don't like that1user bouncing around from person to person. Warren is playing completely null imo unless I'm not reading closely enough. I will re-read. It doesn't help we can't analyze his behavior from DP1. Anddd that's why I don't like including brand noobs in games but I'll save that for the End Game.

BRB gonna go back and analyze throughout the morning in between work calls. It is absolutely infuriating how busy I am all of a sudden. 
#449
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@That1User
Seriously, I'm still having so much trouble with this. 

I said "I love icecream"
Icecream being a reference to vanilla, love being a reference to marriage
I thought this meant you were the Lover, and that you were already connected to a vanilla player. The notion that you were broadcasting your being vanilla this way seemed ridiculous to me (it's actually one of the reasons I thought you were sus), and it sounds strange for a Bride as well, since: a) you don't "love" anyone yet - not until NP3, and b) you don't know who you're loving, so you can't know they're vanilla and, based on your analysis, this reads more like saying you love yourself, which doesn't make much sense when you're only temporarily vanilla anyway. If this is how you were subtly telegraphing your role, you failed pretty hard. 

I also said something about protective role in a reference to protection 
The Bride role isn't protective. It's informative, but not protective. Really don't get this point.

Yes I am, this made me be prevented from using my power, effectively making me vanilla, I didn't lie when I said I was vanilla because I effectively am rn
We called you out on being vanilla many times. We've been doing this for almost 24 hours, and only now you see fit to clarify that you're not actually vanilla? It's a lie, dude. Even a power role that activates later is definitely not vanilla. You should have clarified ages ago.

I thought I'd stave off the pressure, I really, really did not want to claim this under any circumstance unless I was VTL-1, and I was, so I confessed to avoid me being hammered
The issue here is that this makes sense whether you're scum or town. Don't see why this favors you being town just because you claimed when under substantial pressure. Hell, the fact that you weren't hammered by lurking scum at VTL-1 actually makes you more sus.
#450
Danielle
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Interesting. Why would the Bride role go into effect on DP3? That would essentially be an Innocent Child role cuz the Bride could theoretically prove their innocence by proposing to someone else. However if the Bride proposes to scum I guess they could get her lynched by saying she never proposed? It could be an interesting way to "confirm" 2 townies if we let her live. Not sure if it's worth it though or if she just made that up cuz there was so much pushback about Supa's alleged fave character being vanilla. Hmm. And this would be another investigative role of sorts... not sure I buy it. Lemme think. Kinda scummy af she outs this info now. Another "gambit?"