The Stand Mafia DP3

Author: Lunatic

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#31
Speedrace
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@Vader
Maybe he thought Pie was lying? Random guess? Idk because I have no idea of what mafia thought process was. Only reason I see is to set me up.
Woof

I don't think I've ever seen a game where killing someone to set another person up worked. I think it's more likely they thought Pie was lying (remember when I claimed miller as cop in that game in live mafia?)
#32
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Woof, studying for calc final so I'll be off for a bit
#33
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@Speedrace
I think you're bandwagoning a bit on the lynch. You went from VTNLing last DP, to agreeing I suggested to never VTNL, to then buddying Pie, then to voting Mikal. Makes it seem like you are going with the town

I also remember a time in live mafia where warren had a flavor like that and he was scum where he had to say something
#34
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@Speedrace
Could be the guess. I was sus of pie because he didn't claim Miller right away and his policy with Millers to not lynch is to properly claim, yet he didn't despite posting
#35
drafterman
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@Vader
So appearently Drafter is a mason recruiter, paired with a cop. Got a guilty on Mikal for third party. That's interesting. The only scenario I could see is that drafter lied about being a mason recruiter and the cop he "recruited" was a role cop and he knew Mikal was a third party.
How about the scenario that I'm actually mason recruiter actually pair with a cop that actually got guilty results on Mikal for third party. Is that a scenario you could see? Dude, I tried to hand-hold you all throughout last DP to show you how you're thinking is askew but I only have so much patience.

It kinda throws me off why he claimed so late that it happened, but it makes sense why he was so gun hoe on Elm with very little evidence
Because I didn't have "very little evidence." And I claimed late because the ideal situation would have been to get Elminster lynched based on his behavior and have to out a role or results. But you were too inside your own head that you couldn't see anything other than... well I don't really know.

I claimed because I had to to save your ass. Elm got the vote count wrong and was trying to kill you. And even without his ability, you were well on your way to getting lynched.

No need to thank me.

Also the only thing bugging me is why drafter didn't say what he said in beginning of DP2 versus the end
Like... you've played this game before. You know how it's played. I mean, white flame understands it. How do you not?
#36
drafterman
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Results:

None. The person I am mason with has not revealed them to me yet.

I did not recruit anyone because I am not the kind of mason that can only recruit town. I'm more on the "neighbor" side in that I can recruit anyone, so the affiliation of my recruits is not confirmed. I trust the person I recruited based on my own intuition. Their claim and behavior lines up. It could be a fantastic ploy that happened to get lucky with a guilty on a third (I confirmed with TUF that thirds investigate as guilty).
#37
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Depending on the results from my partner, I'd be inclined to push for a mass full claim given that it is LYLO. We will need maximal information to proceed.
#38
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I wouldn't be surprised if maf thought pie was my partner and assumed I'd be watched or protected. If that's the case that puts an fos on supa
#39
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Results:

Guilty on whiteflame

Vtl whiteflame
#40
Vader
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@drafterman
So appearently Drafter is a mason recruiter, paired with a cop. Got a guilty on Mikal for third party. That's interesting. The only scenario I could see is that drafter lied about being a mason recruiter and the cop he "recruited" was a role cop and he knew Mikal was a third party.
How about the scenario that I'm actually mason recruiter actually pair with a cop that actually got guilty results on Mikal for third party. Is that a scenario you could see? Dude, I tried to hand-hold you all throughout last DP to show you how you're thinking is askew but I only have so much patience.
Yes. But I'm not gonna blindly say, drafter is town when we are at MYLO or LYLO or whatever the fuck it is

It kinda throws me off why he claimed so late that it happened, but it makes sense why he was so gun hoe on Elm with very little evidence
Because I didn't have "very little evidence." And I claimed late because the ideal situation would have been to get Elminster lynched based on his behavior and have to out a role or results. But you were too inside your own head that you couldn't see anything other than... well I don't really know.
I'm talking about in the context of DP2 before you revealed the information

I claimed because I had to to save your ass. Elm got the vote count wrong and was trying to kill you. And even without his ability, you were well on your way to getting lynched.

No need to thank me.

Also the only thing bugging me is why drafter didn't say what he said in beginning of DP2 versus the end
Like... you've played this game before. You know how it's played. I mean, white flame understands it. How do you not?

He said to keep it secret. You could've kept it a secret by doing exactly what you said when you revealed later in the DP
#41
Vader
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Convenient. Another guilty result
#42
drafterman
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@Vader
No cop has stepped up to CC me. So unless you think there isn't a cop in the game at all with a miller you better rescrew your head on.
#43
Vader
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@drafterman
Because no cop has claimed yet? Are you saying that you are a cop?
#44
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@Vader
...

I already explained the situation. Reread last DP.

What's your issue with it?

#45
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@drafterman
Alright, this is ridiculous. Clearly, someone in mafia is manipulating the results of your partner's investigations. They know that there's a cop around and targeted me to give you an apparent easy lynch. Much as I don't side with SupaDudz on you being scummy, think about this for a second: your partner got two guilties on consecutive nights. Do you really think that that's just luck, or do you think it's more likely that you're both being manipulated into a mislynch?
#46
Vader
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@drafterman
But you are claiming the cops results? There’s been no cop CC because no one has claimed the cop
#47
Vader
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@whiteflame
Or he’s lying and is scum
#48
drafterman
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@whiteflame
You forgot the third option that were just that good.
#49
drafterman
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@Vader
Then why hasn't the real cop stepped up to say they weren't recruited by me?
#50
whiteflame
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@Vader
I agree that that's possible, but I don't think it's the most likely reason for this.
#51
drafterman
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@whiteflame
This is where you full claim
#52
whiteflame
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"Just that good"? Come on, dude, random chance is one thing, but let's not pretend that you figured something out when that something doesn't exist. I'm not going to full claim unless there's good reason to do so. One vote based on faulty evidence is not good reason.
#53
drafterman
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@whiteflame
The odds of two guilties in a row is greater than the odds of getting a guilty then a fake guilty on exactly the same person mafia targeted for misinformation. Mathematically your scenario is less likely.

And you claim because there is a guilty result on you.

#54
whiteflame
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@drafterman
I'll claim if I get pushed into it, but none of you are going to like the result. And even if it's mathematically less likely, it's still plausible, esp. given the smaller number of people. Realize that they only had 4 possible targets.
#55
drafterman
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@whiteflame
RE: two guilties in a row:

https://www.debate.org/forums/games/topic/16738/1/#597911

#56
whiteflame
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@drafterman
Didn't say it was impossible, and I don't see how referencing a previous game somehow makes it more believable.
#57
drafterman
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@whiteflame
Given the almost 50/50 split, it's about twice as likely that you're actually scum than you are innocent and were targeted by misinformation roles.
#58
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@Danielle
@Barney
@Speedrace
@MisterChris
Need backup here
#59
whiteflame
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@drafterman
That's not a massive difference in likelihood. You're dismissing a plausible scenario just because it's a little less likely than that the cop nailed two non-town targets in a row?
Topic's author
#60
Lunatic
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@Barney
@MisterChris
Activity ping.