The Stand Mafia Day Phase 2

Author: Lunatic

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Vader
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@Elminster
or if it even is used correctly
Elminster
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@Vader
Bruh

Do you even read 

Elminster
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@Vader
What do you even mean lol 
drafterman
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If anyone invented policy lynching millers it was TUF.
Elminster
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I have no idea how to read supa 

I don't even think he knows what he's typing as he's typing it. 

Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
Woof

I'm just gonna do the math out loud to orient my thoughts. 9 peeps here so assuming it's 6 v 3, that's a 33% chance to catch scum. VTNL twice, two scum kills, we get to 4 v 3, that's a 43% chance to get them, but really it's higher than that b/c of investigative results. So I'm not understanding your argument that it benefits mafia to VTNL?
Vader
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@Elminster
There's only gonna be 1 dayphase for both. It's 4 to 3 versus 5 to 3

The VTNL'ing route where we'd have a 5v3 would rely on if there is a role that can protect us and if it used correctly
ILikePie5
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@Elminster
I'm beating a dead horse 

The trade is 

2 shots vs 1

But implies second shot has to be accurate if we miss 1


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1 shot but with the option of 2nps of results to analyze


I prefer the latter. 
Then we fundamentally disagree, and there’s nothing to be said.
Elminster
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@Vader
No I'm not. I'm not even sure what you are talking about. 

What do you even mean ?

Vader
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I like that pie is buddying drafter but I'm getting scum read because they think I'm buddying Elm. Racists
ILikePie5
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@Vader
Policy lynching millers was not created by Pie. I'm sure if you look at any other person they'd policy lynch millers too. You are just the first person on DART who uses the meta, you didn't invent it. 
Ok ya so first person on DART. What’s the difference?
ILikePie5
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@Vader
I like that pie is buddying drafter but I'm getting scum read because they think I'm buddying Elm. Racists
How am I buddying Drafter? I’m null on him and Elm
Vader
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@Elminster
Hypothetical 3 scum. 

No lynch 6v3

Dp3, 5v3

Mislynch,

4v3

Night kill, 3v3. Mafia wins

The only way that we are extended if is a protective role blocks a NK from happening or a RB blocks the mafia. But your gambling on that being in the game AND the person behind it actually targeting the right persn
Vader
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@ILikePie5
Because you didn't invent it :)
Elminster
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@Vader
Bro we are at 9

Nl 

A nk takes it to 8

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Nl 

A nk takes it to 7


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With 7. Assuming there is no tp fuckery. It's 
4 to 3 

Why do you need a role for that? What are you on about. 




This is assuming there is no protect roles that land etc 
Vader
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Also gonna pull a mikal read with Pie and say that he's been on Discord a lot more on his phone. He only hops on Discord when pinged. Not gonna read anymore into that but it's just a note
whiteflame
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@Vader
I don't think you're buddying Elm. Doesn't mean I'm not sus of you.
Elminster
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@ILikePie5
Keep in mind that on a nl 

If a successful protect lands we are not even mylo. 

Vader
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@Elminster
So you're gonna keep forcing NL's and risk the mafia killing a PR
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
Woof

I'm just gonna do the math out loud to orient my thoughts. 9 peeps here so assuming it's 6 v 3, that's a 33% chance to catch scum. VTNL twice, two scum kills, we get to 4 v 3, that's a 43% chance to get them, but really it's higher than that b/c of investigative results. So I'm not understanding your argument that it benefits mafia to VTNL?
33% today and 43% tomorrow with one night of results 

vs

43% DP4 with two nights of results

The latter assumes there will be actions and they will yield results of some kind that will help town on LYLO. If a cop for example gets an inno NP2, are they going to reveal it DP3? Probably not. But then DP3 there is a guilty. How are we gonna know they are the cop? There’s a higher-inherent risk of manipulation if we VTNL.

At this point we just fundamentally disagree. My vote is on Supa

VTL Supa 
Speedrace
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Also gonna pull a mikal read with Pie and say that he's been on Discord a lot more on his phone. He only hops on Discord when pinged. Not gonna read anymore into that but it's just a note
Woof

Whether or not this is true, I'm not using this to scum read him, I've literally had my Discord set to offline for like a year just to prevent this from happening to me and it's starting to get on my nerves nowadays. I don't like outside sources being used to read people
ILikePie5
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@Vader
Because you didn't invent it :)
You’re going off topic, why does it matter that I didn’t “invent” it
Elminster
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@Vader
Yes

Because I'm assuming a protect role may hit and that there are hopefully enough prs to get results that are meaningful during those 2 nps. We may not even need 2. Hopefully will have something tomorrow that can help us more than where we stand currently



Vader
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@drafterman
The interaction part is where I see the most red flags. Why is Pie pointing out something drafterman said a year ago and looking at him to test his reaction? How does he know what drafterman is thinking at the time this is going. What would be the motive for Pie to focus in on something from a year ago just to ask for Drafter's opinion on something. To me, it doesn't add up in anyway. The only reason that post would've been brought up if drafter told Pie about the post, which leads me to believe they have some form of communication with each other. Drafter even says it wasn't recently where he said Miller claims. Why would Pie remember this info at all? These don't add in anyway
It doesn't add up if you posit us both as scum, either. Does it make sense that a scum-pair would do that?
this could be WIFOM where you say, why would I do that as scum? Idk

Tunneling on one person when there's no concrete evidence of whether or not he's scum is extremely rash and reactionary versus him last game, where while he voted Water, he was much more cautious of his vote versus now, where he is voting Elm off of less information. Water had bad plays and sus moves constantly, and it didn't take Drafter til page 6 to vote him, where he didn't even go through with the vote because of Elm. This tunneling where he disregards the case on Pie and only focuses on one character is anti town, and anti town is usually scum. I maintained the position that bad town and anti town are different in various definitions and regards. The fact he is willing to throw Pie in the pile after he did not claim Dp1 in the time he had. He isn't considering any options, versus town drafter, where in the last game, he considered Elm an option as well. Why isn't he doing the same here
It's not anti-town to tunnel on scum and get scum lynched.
Tunneling on a scum read is scummy. Tunneling on a confirmed scum is different. Mikal is not confirmed scum

I've made a big case about this but drafter left the site in March this year. He then states his belief of Millers are confirmed town because of the site and shouldn't be trusted. Yet  when he left the site and came back, he is now suddenly changing his opinion on claimed Millers, even when they don't claim right away?
YOU said many things change in a year. Now you're saying things can't change in a year. (Also you said things may or may not change in a year). Which is it. Can you preface each post with the specific mutually exclusive position you're artbirarily picking for that point in time? It'll make things easier.
Because I have played mafia this year. You haven't

What changed about his behavior since? He didn't participate in any mafia games during this time? He rage quit another mafia game,
No I didn't.
Speed's game?

why is he suddenly having this drastic change of heart? To me, his reads are not consistent of his play. Drafter is not someone to change based on a meta or belief or wave, yet he decides to drastically change the style he preached. It's out of character, and would coorelate with drafter forcing a potential mislynch on Elm and then when it's MYLO, he goes an attacks me for being aggressive and gets enough of town validation to get a mislynch since it is the funny trend to hate on Supa and just push the narrative that Supa is an idiot and should be lynched cuz idiots are scummy.
The funny thing is all of this is based ONLY on stuff I've told you about myself. You haven't done any of your own thinking on the subject, it's based on what I've told you, here in this game, about my own past behavior. You haven't independently verified any off it.
This is all my thinking
All the more amusing because - as I said - the behavior you are alleging I've changed from IS FROM WHEN I WAS SCUM. So you're entire argument is:

"Drafter is scum now because he has drastically changed from his behavior when he was scum in a game a year ago. I know this because he told me this now and I trust what he is telling me now even though I think he's scum."


Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
Bark

OHH I didn't realize what you were saying with both today and tomorrow's percentages

Actually that's a 61% chance total so you're right
ILikePie5
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@Vader
Also gonna pull a mikal read with Pie and say that he's been on Discord a lot more on his phone. He only hops on Discord when pinged. Not gonna read anymore into that but it's just a note
What?
Vader
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@ILikePie5
You go on Discord when you are pinged for something on phone. I noticed this morning and yesterday you were on phone when I didn't ping. Like I said, it's only a note and not a read, but a little thought
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@Vader
You go on Discord when you are pinged for something on phone. I noticed this morning and yesterday you were on phone when I didn't ping. Like I said, it's only a note and not a read, but a little thought
I have notifications off lol, but this is just contrived af lol
Vader
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@Elminster
When no PR's that effect the game have claimed yet, it's extremely doubtful that anything will happen
Vader
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@ILikePie5
I said I don't read into it