Avatar The Last Airbender Mafia DP3

Author: Vader

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whiteflame
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@Greyparrot
Yep, and I agreed with you last round. I don't agree with you in this one.
Lunatic
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@Greyparrot
How about I hop on whatever lynch train you advocate instead of wasting the phase lynching you? practically nobody thinks you are scum.
Misterchris does, but if he's the minority then I am okay with lynching between skittlez and croc, though im leaning skittlez. You are on this POE but your behavior is too townie seeming to be scum. Speed not being roleblocked or night killed until DP3 doesn't look good for him. 

My scum picks currently: Skittlez, speed, croc based on POE
MisterChris
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OK. I buy Lunatic's claim for now. I think with my suspicion mostly quelled I'm ok with lynching him for an essential VTNL with some extra POE.

Before we do so, though, Croc has said he is ok with testing his role. Let's do that. 
Lunatic
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@Speedrace
Bullish's tech game, he claimed vpn RB
So your counter argument for him not claiming in games he is scum, is that the the one time he did it he claimed his actual scum role? The point behind the FOS is that he sucks at fake claiming, that just feeds the point further.
Crocodile
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vtl croc
test
Crocodile
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say test at the bottom so some dumbass wont hammer
whiteflame
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@Lunatic
I'd totally be in agreement with your scum picks if it weren't for my Sensor. Between Speed and Croc, only one can be scum, as neither of them were on the lynch train (Croc's vote came in too late to be counted).
Greyparrot
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@Lunatic
Im leaning skittlez or speed..can we get any consensus behind one of those? i mean there's a lot of scum to pick from we gotta be able to get at least 1
Lunatic
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@whiteflame
I'd totally be in agreement with your scum picks if it weren't for my Sensor. Between Speed and Croc, only one can be scum, as neither of them were on the lynch train (Croc's vote came in too late to be counted).
Oh good point. If it's one or the other, my bet is speed is the scum between the two based on behavior and the fact that no smart mafia lets a cop live this long and get results every day.
Speedrace
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@Lunatic
So your counter argument for him not claiming in games he is scum, is that the the one time he did it he claimed his actual scum role? The point behind the FOS is that he sucks at fake claiming, that just feeds the point further.
I'm saying its stupid to read him based on when he claims. GP stopped claiming DP1 and was town in the last game he played, and Skittlez didn't first claim in your game and was town, and he's not claimed and HAS claimed as scum
MisterChris
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I don't know where the Speed scum read is coming from. He has COP confirmed 2 innocents so far that we've been able to confirm through other means as well. His results are accurate and he hasn't thrown us off with them. 
Lunatic
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@Greyparrot
Im leaning skittlez or speed..can we get any consensus behind one of those? i mean there's a lot of scum to pick from we gotta be able to get at least 1
I think skittlez is probably the safer bet between the two, but I could go either way.
Speedrace
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I have a debate so I'll be on later
Greyparrot
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@Lunatic
Chris is really doing alot to defend speed and dismiss our concerns.
whiteflame
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@Lunatic
Yeah, that's part of why I'm still not sure on the Croc read, despite him being the more sus of the two from his behavior in DP2. The fact that both of Speed's targets were basically confirmed town before he confirmed them also doesn't help his case. I think Skittlez is the obvious choice for a lynch this round.
Lunatic
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@MisterChris
I don't know where the Speed scum read is coming from. He has COP confirmed 2 innocents so far that we've been able to confirm through other means as well. His results are accurate and he hasn't thrown us off with them. 
I give scum fake cop claims almost more than I actually use the cop role lol. Cop, tracker, sensor, that's 3 investigative roles. That's a pretty stacked town. You believe all three?

That said speed is behaviorally scum motivation wise. DP1 with his reaction to me, doing 0 scum hunting all three day phases, and defending skittlez who is heavily implicated based on POE.


MisterChris
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@Greyparrot
Not dismissing. I understand & agree that it's weird for scum to have preserved COP for 2 DPs. 

Lunatic
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@Greyparrot
Chris is really doing alot to defend speed and dismiss our concerns.
I know, but I think he's town still. Too many results that look good for him to be scum. I think his gut feelings are mis-guiding him.
Greyparrot
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@Lunatic
Pretty sure speed is the ringer that decided on warren and danielle
MisterChris
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@Lunatic
@Greyparrot
@whiteflame
Croc has literally told us to confirm him! Let's do it. If Croc is confirmed as popular, then I am willing to switch to Speed lynch because of PoE. 
whiteflame
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@MisterChris
As I see it, since he's claimed Cop, Speed could be scum and try the following three routes: try to throw us off by reading people who are town as scum, which would automatically implicate him if we lynched that person (he didn't do this), try to throw us off a scum read by claiming that they're town (he may have done this, but that seems unlikely given that both you and Bearman are very likely town), or confirm people who we already believed were town as town so as not to look suspicious. It's also possible that he's just an actual Cop getting actual confirmations, but neither of his choices make a lot of sense as we already thought both you and Bearman were town. The fact that he hasn't been targeted by Mafia is also a little strange, given that he's a clear and present danger to them.

Still, not sure. If skittlez and Croc wasn't so sus for his last vote, I'd be on the "lynch Speed" train.
whiteflame
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@MisterChris
I'm tempted to do just that, but also concerned that, if we do confirm, we won't garner much information. We can confirm the role and still not know if he's scum or town. Moreover, if he is town, this would be an easy opportunity for one of the scum to finish him off if they time their vote right.
MisterChris
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@whiteflame
Oh true. The scum vote bomb is waiting to happen. 
MisterChris
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in that case VTL Lunatic. 


OK. I buy Lunatic's claim for now. I think with my suspicion mostly quelled I'm ok with lynching him for an essential VTNL with some extra POE.

Before we do so, though, Croc has said he is ok with testing his role. Let's do that. 
Croc test lynch falls through because, as Whiteflame points out, scum could vote bomb. 
BearMan
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@skittlez09
Are you high?
Greyparrot
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@whiteflame
I'm absolutely sus of chris for not wanting to lynch speed or skittlez...anyone but.
Lunatic
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If we lynch me today either me or chris die tonignt as the most town confirmed players. That means the rest of y'all HAVE to be smart and lynch either skittlez or speed tomorrow. 
BearMan
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1. Speedrace (COP)
2. MisterChris
3. Crocodile (Popular/Loved)
4. skittlez09 (Vanilla) 
5. Lunatic (Lynchproof/ DeathProof)
6. whiteflame (1x Sensor)
7. Bearman (Tracker)
8. Greyparrot (Vanilla)

MisterChris' POE falls flat. There are three mafia out of the 8 of us, meaning 4-3. MisterChris and I are the ONLY ones confirmed by a suspicious player. Leaving:


1. Speedrace (COP)
3. Crocodile (Popular/Loved)
4. skittlez09 (Vanilla) 
5. Lunatic (Lynchproof/ DeathProof)
6. whiteflame (1x Sensor)
8. Greyparrot (Vanilla)

Skittlez claimed a "Cabbage Man" or vanilla. Since it doesn't make any sense for a not that big of a main character (from what I saw). Skittlez could safely claim this by excusing himself from not being a main character relying on Speed's claim as is.

I'm on board for a Skittlez-Grey-Speed  team
whiteflame
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As I see it, skittlez is the clearer read. We know that, between Greyparrot, Lunatic and skittlez, there are two scum. We have a 2 in 3 chance of hitting the right one, and while I can't get a clear read on Greyparrot (though his claim of Momo, an important but somewhat suspect vanilla character, notwithstanding), I do think that Lunatic is the least likely of these. Skittlez, meanwhile, has claimed a vanilla character, one that isn't part of the main cast (though it seems likely that SupaDudz would cast it - hell, I know I would) and clearly took it too far in the last vote. I'd say he's easily the must sus of the 3, which makes him the easy choice to me. We'd have to misread both Greyparrot and Lunatic to be wrong here, whereas we'd only have to misread either Croc or Speedrace to make a mistake there.

As for Greyparrot's point... I find it hard to believe that MisterChris didn't move last night and was scum. I agree that he's pushing back hard on at least one of the obvious choices, which seems strange to me, but I'd have to disbelieve both Speed and Bearman to agree with you that he's scum. I believe at least one of those (Bearman) accurately tracked him.
Greyparrot
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@Lunatic
I can swap to a skittles vote whenever.