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@Dr.Franklin
the fly won.
Presidential Debate
Posts
Total:
190
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@HistoryBuff
CNN already declared Biden the winner in 2016.
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@Greyparrot
oh for sure
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@Greyparrot
CNN already declared Biden the winner in 2016.
well, given that biden is winning by about 10 points nationally in the average of polls as well as winning in most of the battle ground states, that is the likely outcome.
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@HistoryBuff
only 10 points? Hillary was 50 points ahead at this time.
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@Greyparrot
only 10 points? Hillary was 50 points ahead at this time.
hilary was only a couple points ahead at this point in 2016. And i'm not going to try to defend hilary. She wasn't a good candidate. Biden isn't either. But they are both much better than trump. And it is looking more and more likely that Biden will be the next president.
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@HistoryBuff
hilary was only a couple points ahead at this point in 2016. And i'm not going to try to defend hilary. She wasn't a good candidate. Biden isn't either. But they are both much better than trump. And it is looking more and more likely that Biden will be the next president.
Biden is the same spread Hillary was right cause of Access Hollywood. We all saw how that ended up
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@ILikePie5
Biden is the same spread Hillary was right cause of Access Hollywood. We all saw how that ended up
i'm not really sure what this sentence is supposed to mean. What spread are you talking about? what about access hollywood? I'm guessing whatever this is is well known in right wing circles, but i don't know what you mean.
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@ILikePie5
Well the candidate for the left (the MSM) hasn't changed at all since 2016.
2016 was a referendum on MSM and since MSM refused to change one bit, 2020 will be as well.
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@HistoryBuff
i'm not really sure what this sentence is supposed to mean. What spread are you talking about? what about access hollywood? I'm guessing whatever this is is well known in right wing circles, but i don't know what you mean.
Hillary was ahead by the same margins in the polls after Access Hollywood and we all saw how she ended up winning
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@ILikePie5
Hillary was ahead by the same margins in the polls after Access Hollywood and we all saw how she ended up winning
nope. The access Hollywood tape came out october 7th 2016. on that day they were 5 points apart. a week later they were 6 points apart, which is as far as the spread between them ever really got. certainly from that point on it only got closer.
Biden is presently about 10 points ahead. I don't think hilary ever even got close to that kind of a lead. if the polls are anywhere near accurate, Trump is going to get slaughtered. Keep in mind that the polls in 2016 weren't actually off by all that much. They were a couple points off in some critical states which allowed him to win the electoral college while losing the popular vote, but on the whole, they were pretty close. If they are the same amount off as they were in 2016, trump is really screwed.
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@HistoryBuff
you're assuming the polls are off by only 8%
Giving Biden a 2% actual lead.
We know cancel culture suppresses the polling of taboo ideas like supporting Trump.
Do you think the cancel culture is more or less prevalent than 2016 when it comes to polling?
People are genuinely afraid to poll, especially with all the unreported violence against Trump supporters.
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@HistoryBuff
nope. The access Hollywood tape came out october 7th 2016. on that day they were 5 points apart. a week later they were 6 points apart, which is as far as the spread between them ever really got. certainly from that point on it only got closer.
Where are you looking lol. Just go back to RCP and literally every poll has Hillary up by 8-10 right after Access Hollywood.
Either way, it doesn’t really matter. There’s no way Joe is up 10 nationally and is tied in Florida or up 1-2. If he was up that much he’d be campaigning in Missouri, not Pennsylvania.
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@Greyparrot
People are genuinely afraid to poll, especially with all the unreported violence against Trump supporters.
They’re literally missing swathes of Trump voters. If you follow Nate Cohn he released a map of where his poll got answers in OH and PA. The place where there are like 1-2 or none is literally all Trump country if you look back to 16
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@zedvictor4
Does anybody say, "God save the P.M.?"
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@HistoryBuff
Have a care to understand who your polling public really is. Political polls almost always make registered voters their target audience for polling. Who are registered voters? In 2016, there were 250M of them. Only 51%, 127M, of them actually voted, split between Trump and Hillary. Meaning 123M of them never bothered to vote, having no will to make their voice, and opinion, heard. They are included in your polls. In fact those 123M ARE your majority; people who have no valid opinion. You trust them?
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@fauxlaw
Perhaps certain people with interests in certain things might do.
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@zedvictor4
Yeah, the same people who believed the 1938 War of the Worlds radio broadcast hoax by Orson Wells.
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@fauxlaw
Yep. if you could afford a radio and the time to listen to it.
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@zedvictor4
By 1939, 80% of American homes had radios. https://www.encyclopedia.com/education/news-and-education-magazines/radio-1929-1941
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@ILikePie5
Where are you looking lol.
I provided links to exactly what I was using. Did you not look at the evidence I provided?
literally every poll has Hillary up by 8-10 right after Access Hollywood.
Again, no. I am looking at the link you provided. Some of them show her up by as much as 10 points. some show a tie or trump winning. some show 5 point lead. The average of these polls is about a 6 point lead. The polls show biden winning by an average of 10 points. in some of them he is up by 16 points. In absolutely none of them is trump winning or even close to winning. Biden is much further ahead than hilary ever was.
Either way, it doesn’t really matter. There’s no way Joe is up 10 nationally and is tied in Florida or up 1-2. If he was up that much he’d be campaigning in Missouri, not Pennsylvania.
This statement says alot more about you than the election. Basically, you refuse to believe reality because you don't want it to be true. Biden doesn't need to win Missouri to be president. If he gets Pennsylvania (which the average of polls gives him a 7 point lead in) then he is very likely to win the election. Why waste resources in an area where that will be a tough fight if you don't need to win it? You put your resources into the areas you are more likely to win that are critically important.
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@Greyparrot
you're assuming the polls are off by only 8%
why would anyone assume the polls are off by 8%? In 2016 the polling was much more accurate than that. it was off by a couple points in critical states, but not 8%. Also, if the polls are off by 8% then Trump could also actually be down by like 18%.
Giving Biden a 2% actual lead.
this seems to be entirely wishful thinking on your part. There is no reason to think this is true.
People are genuinely afraid to poll, especially with all the unreported violence against Trump supporters.
if they are too afraid to tell people what they believe, then they aren't likely to actually show up to vote. Especially in a pandemic. Seems like this would not be a statistically important factor.
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@HistoryBuff
I provided links to exactly what I was using. Did you not look at the evidence I provided?
I meant for the HRC data. The link you used shows the polls for November not October.
Again, no. I am looking at the link you provided. Some of them show her up by as much as 10 points. some show a tie or trump winning. some show 5 point lead. The average of these polls is about a 6 point lead. The polls show biden winning by an average of 10 points. in some of them he is up by 16 points. In absolutely none of them is trump winning or even close to winning. Biden is much further ahead than hilary ever was.
There’s only one poll that showed Trump winning and that was an LA Times tracking poll. Everything else was HRC up 6-12 which is pretty much what’s going on right now. Not to mention 538 doesn’t even use every poll. They’re actually trash in their projections.
This statement says alot more about you than the election. Basically, you refuse to believe reality because you don't want it to be true. Biden doesn't need to win Missouri to be president. If he gets Pennsylvania (which the average of polls gives him a 7 point lead in) then he is very likely to win the election. Why waste resources in an area where that will be a tough fight if you don't need to win it? You put your resources into the areas you are more likely to win that are critically important.
Why waste resources in an area where you’re up by 7 instead of going on the offensive in places like Texas lol. You flip Texas, you win the election. Polls only show Joe a couple of points behind or ahead by 1 or 2 right. Joe Biden knows the polls are way off because his internals say the same thing. You and I both know how the polls turned out in 2016 and 2018. Where are Senators Nelson and Donelly? Wheres Governor Gillum? The polls mean nothin if you can’t get an accurate sample. Funny enough they don’t cause even NYT/Siena missed Trump country in PA and OH by a mile
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@HistoryBuff
it was off by a couple points in critical states,
MN - 8.0 (Only two polls taken in October)
WI - 7.2
OH - 6.9
IA - 6.5
MI - 5.3 (Not counting Trafalgar which was the most accurate and the pollster Nate Silver shits on the most)
Only a couple points huh
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@ILikePie5
I meant for the HRC data. The link you used shows the polls for November not October.
again, no. Here is the link again. That graph at the top is showing you the average of polls between june and november. HRC gets about 6 points ahead. She is never even close to 10 points ahead.
There’s only one poll that showed Trump winning and that was an LA Times tracking poll. Everything else was HRC up 6-12 which is pretty much what’s going on right now.
again, no. There are a bunch of polls that show 4 points between HRC and trump. A bunch of polls that show 6 points. a couple that show up to 10. But the average of polls is about 6% lead. Joe's showing polls up by 16%. the average is 10%. that is a very big difference.
Not to mention 538 doesn’t even use every poll. They’re actually trash in their projections.
I think they remove some of the very poorly rated survey companies that are shown to be unreliable or who intentionally mess with their data.
Why waste resources in an area where you’re up by 7 instead of going on the offensive in places like Texas lol. You flip Texas, you win the election.
because he doesn't need Texas. If he got it, then yeah that is a landslide. But he doesn't need it to win. If he drives home his advantage in Pennsylvania then Biden wins. If you spend millions in Texas you could endanger winning in Pennsylvania and cost yourself the election.
Polls only show Joe a couple of points behind or ahead by 1 or 2 right.
in texas? sure. but he doesn't need texas.
Joe Biden knows the polls are way off because his internals say the same thing.
are you just going to keep making things up? How would you possibly know that?
You and I both know how the polls turned out in 2016 and 2018.
Generally speaking, trump overperformed his polls by about 2% in critical areas. He would need to overperform by about 4-5 times that much to win now. The polls would need to be several times more inaccurate now than they were in 2016 for him to win.
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@ILikePie5
@HistoryBuff
Also, if the polls are off by 8% then Trump could also actually be down by like 18%.
Lol, polls only skew one way since 2016. The left isn't afraid to virtue signal with polls.
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@Greyparrot
Lol, polls only skew one way since 2016. The left isn't afraid to virtue signal with polls.
Trafalgar was the most accurate pollster in 2016 and 2018. The races are within the margin of error. No one legitimately believes Joe is up 10 nationally besides the glorified poll readers who lack basic understanding of polling in the first place. You don’t get a representative sample of white working class men who overwhelmingly support Trump in the fracking regions of PA. You have to weight them using an arbitrary number you think is right that defines what you think the numbers on election night will be. It’s a flawed concept
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@HistoryBuff
Generally speaking, trump overperformed his polls by about 2% in critical areas.
Post 144. 2 my ass
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@Greyparrot
Lol, polls only skew one way since 2016. The left isn't afraid to virtue signal with polls.
lol, some polling was off by 2%, so now the right screams RIGGED POLLS!!! THEY ARE OFF BY 8% OR MORE!! It just helps them to dig their heads into the sand so they can ignore reality.
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@HistoryBuff
lol, some polling was off by 2%,
I literally showed it was much more than that lol. Why are you lying?