You should always be pushing for a lynch on a scum read.
lol than why arent u doing the same?
Arrowverse Mafia - DP1
Posts
Read-only
Total:
646
-->
@drafterman
I absolutely don't believe that the balance of this game hinges on whether or not the lovers decided or decided not to claim. And you are not considering the fact that the balance issue might be resolved from information that we haven't yet uncovered rather than immediately concluding that the information we have is wrong. It could be one or the other or a combination of both. But what matters is the ultimate conclusion of whether or not this is a game where it is too risky from the onset to lynch incorrectly.
I don't think there's any role town could have that could compensate for the loss of 3 town members in one day phase.
I only have a slight scum read on you, but that's more than I have on anyone else.
idk unless i get more evidence im gonna stick with a VTNL
dont get me wrong i suspect drafterman too but not enough to make the risk of 3 townies dieing worth it rn
-->
@MisterChris
So you believe the game is designed that town can't make any mistakes?
-->
@drafterman
How is exposing the lovers the only mistake the town could've done?
-->
@skittlez09
Who said I'm not?
-->
@MisterChris
I'm talking about mislynching. You're saying we can't mislynch.
-->
@drafterman
The only reason we can't mislynch is because the lovers have been exposed. Again, it wasn't a given that that would happen anytime soon.
-->
@MisterChris
It makes sense to you that the game would hinge on essentially pure luck?
Not to mention the high probably they get night killed by chance regardless.
-->
@drafterman
is this not how the game operates?
-->
@MisterChris
No, that is not how the game operates.
-->
@MisterChris
The only reason we can't mislynch is because the lovers have been exposed.
If scum shoots the lovers, that still leaves us one mislynch, so it isn't true that we can't mislynch. It's just that we can only afford to do it once.
-->
@MisterChris
If you're thinking that this game is such that the outed lovers means we can't mislynch you have to understand that them outing is irrelevant; we couldn't afford a mislynch either way because the probability that one or the other got lynched or night killed is extremely high even if they stayed quiet.
-->
@SirAnonymous
If scum shoots the lovers, that still leaves us one mislynch, so it isn't true that we can't mislynch. It's just that we can only afford to do it once.
Exactly, and I think the best thing to do is to SAVE that mislynch for later, and see if Supa and Intel survive the night. If they do, then we already have two suspects. If not, then we have higher chance of NOT mislynching by narrowing suspects down a bit.
-->
@drafterman
See above. And yes, that's how this game operates. Every action is a luck of the draw, and using probability informs me it's not a good idea to shoot our shots randomly.
Who said anything about shooting randomly?
Also, mathematically, "saving" mislynches doesn't really work because you lose available mislynches as the game progresses.
Consider a vanilla scenario where town has two mislynches before reaching MYLO. Ex: 6 town, 2 mafia. If town no lynches, maf kills making it 5 town, 2 mafia. You now have two lynches until LYLO. Another NL and you lose that ML forever.
So if you think we have one available mislynch, now is the time to use it
-->
@drafterman
Also, mathematically, "saving" mislynches doesn't really work because you lose available mislynches as the game progresses.Consider a vanilla scenario where town has two mislynches before reaching MYLO. Ex: 6 town, 2 mafia. If town no lynches, maf kills making it 5 town, 2 mafia. You now have two lynches until LYLO. Another NL and you lose that ML forever.So if you think we have one available mislynch, now is the time to use it
+1
-->
@drafterman
Also, mathematically, "saving" mislynches doesn't really work because you lose available mislynches as the game progresses.Consider a vanilla scenario where town has two mislynches before reaching MYLO. Ex: 6 town, 2 mafia. If town no lynches, maf kills making it 5 town, 2 mafia. You now have two lynches until LYLO. Another NL and you lose that ML forever.So if you think we have one available mislynch, now is the time to use it
Then maybe we shouldn't use it at all. Because if we do, we get an instant MYLO situation next day phase, if you remember.
-->
@MisterChris
The only situation in which I would recommend not using a mislynch is if you lynch scum every time.
-->
@SirAnonymous
Can you explain more? I thought we had established that the death of the lovers on top of a mislynch this day phase would be harmful.
-->
@MisterChris
It would bring us to MYLO immediately, yes. However, drafter's right. No lynching here won't give us any more mislynches. We will end up using the mislynch this round or next round, unless we hit scum. We don't necessarily have to use the mislynch this DP. It will still be available next DP. However, it won't be available after that unless scum doesn't shoot the lovers.
-->
@MisterChris
The death of any town is "harmful". The consistent ultimate question is whether you think the design of this game is such that the death of a town d1 is irreparably harmful.
That the lovers claimed isn't relevant to this calculus because the odds of them both surviving till the end we're slim anyway.
There are basically 3 options:
1. This game is designed that town pretty much can't afford to mislynch ever
2. The lovers are lying
3. There is some unknown role or set of roles that counter balances the negative utility of the lovers.
If you rule out 1 (which I do), then it doesn't really matter which of 2 or 3 is the case (we can work that out later). The main takeaway is that we have some breathing room.
-->
@drafterman
The only exception to your post was the MCU Civil War mafia. I highly doubt Speed was that careless this time.
-->
@SirAnonymous
I'm not saying it's impossible. But like, you gotta give the mod and game the benefit of the doubt that it's playable.
If it turns out not to be, then c'est la vie, but I'm going to give it a good faith effort.
-->
@drafterman
I agree. I think Speed learned his lesson about balancing games. I'm sure that we'll have at least one mislynch available.
-->
@SirAnonymous
Don't suppose I can convince you not to waste it on me.
-->
@drafterman
You could, but it would require a better option. If you've got one, I'd be glad to hear it.
-->
@SirAnonymous
My stated preferences are Lynch Not Me > VTNL > Lynch Me.
So, moving from Me to NL is preferrable.
-->
@drafterman
First you tell me I should lynch my scum read, then you tell me I should no lynch because my only scum read was you. Picky, picky, picky.