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@drafterman
That was fun. Can we lynch now?
Have any suggestions about who to lynch?
Arrowverse Mafia - DP1
Posts
Read-only
Total:
646
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@Speedrace
werent there 3 votes on me?
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@skittlez09
It was a joke lol
no real leads rn an plus the risk of us losing 3 town players
so imma just VTNL for now
i think this is the best course of action unless someones else is gonna spit some ideas
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@Speedrace
mb lmao
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman (2/5)
VTNL - skittlez09 (1/5)
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@Speedrace
Ragnar has VTNLed as well.
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@MisterChris
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman (2/5)
VTNL - skittlez09, Ragnar (1/5)
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@Intelligence_06
intelligence still hasnt given a justification for his vote yet
VTL skittlez
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman , SupaDudz (3/5)
VTNL - skittlez09, Ragnar (1/5)
THE CASE FOR NO VOTE
- Skittlez has a valid case both in favor and against him, but in my opinion, it leans in his favor. Either way, it is controversial enough to where the TOWN should not blindly assume he is either mafia or town.
- Drafterman advocates for Skittlez lynch, yet even he acknowledges that the 3 candidates are shoddy. The only reason he continues to advocate for a Skittlez lynch is to avoid diminishing returns from an extended day phase. If Drafterman wants to end the day phase, the best choice is instead a NO VOTE. Here is why:
- Ragnar rightly points out that if he is town (RECALL: the case debatably swings in favor of him being town), a lynch of Skittlez will greatly hurt town voter power, ESPECIALLY if Supa and Intel are telling the truth about their status as town lovers. If they are, mafia will no-doubt take them out next night phase which means we would have lost 3 town voters.
- Oromagi thinks it is more likely that the lovers are 1 mafia and 1 town (mostly from a balance analysis), but we can NOT be certain. As Sir cites: "YOU CANNOT DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT BALANCE WITHOUT KNOWING ALL THE ROLES. Looking at two roles and saying they can't be in the game together because that would be OP is bogus because you don't know what other roles exist that could balance it out. You simply don't know until you know what the Mafia can do and you can't know that until you kill them all."
SCENARIOS OF A SKITTLEZ LYNCH:
- 1: SKITTLEZ IS MAFIA (ESIMATED PROBABILITY: 15%)
The town defies all expectations and lucks out, as the possibility of Skittlez being mafia is only to medium-low. TOWN FAVOR.
- 2: SKITTLEZ IS TOWN & THE LOVERS ARE TOWN (ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: 55%)
ALL of the above comes to pass: Skittlez is innocent and dies, along with the 2 lovers who are inevitably killed by mafia, leaving town with low population and high chance of failure. Either that, or mafia is playing a big brained move and setting up the lovers to be mislynched one at a time while they continue to nightkill. MAFIA FAVOR.
- 3: SKITTLEZ IS TOWN & THE LOVERS ARE MAFIA (ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: 5%)
The town loses a member that is not the most valuable, but has still contributed more than usual this game. Mafia are both lovers, which means the game is horribly unbalanced in favor of TOWN.
- 4: SKITTLEZ IS TOWN & THE LOVERS ARE SPLIT MAFIA AND TOWN ?(ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: 25%)
The town loses a member that is not the most valuable, but has still contributed more than usual this game. Town thinks that at least one of the lovers are mafia, but have no way of knowing which. All the while, the mafia and townie are probably vigorously arguing in favor of their innocence and saying that it is an attempt at a mafia big brain play. STALEMATE.
VERDICT:
I estimate that there is a 55% chance of a Skittlez lynch going in favor of mafia, and I estimate a 20% chance it results in town favor. I reserve a 25% chance of it being a virtual stalemate. I don't think the risks are worth the reward with a Skittlez lynch right now.
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@Speedrace
VTNL
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@skittlez09
1. Again, I have planned to vote first but for some dumb non-luck Drafterman voted before me.
2. Claiming miller is the least useful you could do in town. The purpose of scum is to blend in and this does just that
3. Skittlez's character is better off some other role than miller.
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman , SupaDudz (3/5)
VTNL - skittlez09, Ragnar, MisterChris (3/5)
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@Intelligence_06
1. Again, I have planned to vote first but for some dumb non-luck Drafterman voted before me.
Excuses
at the time u still didnt give a justification an havent for almost the entirety of the dp
2. Claiming miller is the least useful you could do in town. The purpose of scum is to blend in and this does just that
Firstly so what if its the least useful how does that justify a lynch? Especially when we have two lovers in the game. lol if i wanted to blend in i wouldve claimed something else an not draw the attention to myself.
3. Skittlez's character is better off some other role than miller.
this has already been debunked numerous times throughout the dp
after reading this ive come up with two possible theories
1. Your just a lazy town
2. Your trying to "blend in" by bandwagoning an are scum
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@Speedrace
@skittlez09
this has already been debunked numerous times throughout the dp
Not being able to be proven so not worth more days of back and forth, and being debunked differ greatly.
VTL Skittlez
ill be on later
Vote Count
skittlez09 - Intelligence_06 , drafterman , SupaDudz, Ragnar (4/5)
VTNL - skittlez09, MisterChris (3/5)
VTNL is totally lame, guys. Like... Why play? We did all of this to then do... Nothing? This is the primary power Town has over Maf and we're just going to not use it? It's like Maf choosing to not kill because they're too lazy to agree on a night kill.
If we were meant to NL then the game would be Night start.
I just came back from Starbucks and all the cool sooner hipsters say that only boomers NL on D1
Zoomer*
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@drafterman
If you believe that, can you convince me that my analysis above is wrong in some way? Am I missing something?
OMG, I just found out Skittlez and/or MisterChris is a double voter! No way is #349 a typo!
VTNL - skittlez09, MisterChris (3/5)
/Satire
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@MisterChris
Sure. If lynching skittlez is 55% chance of favoring the mafia then it's 45% favoring the town. Most probably there are two mafia, so from any Townie POV, there is 2/8 = 1/4 = 25% of hitting mafia from a purely random standpoint.
So the ultimate conclusion is that lynching skittlez almost doubles our chances of hitting scum.
The real question is: why AREN'T you lynching him?
In any event, even if you disagree with a skittlez lynch, point your quasi-Bayesian analysis on the rest of the players, pick the one with the highest probability of scum > 25%, and push their lynch.
Like, unless you end up with smoking gun results (rare), the only other time you ever even get close to 50% scum on someone is at a LYLO situation.
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@drafterman
We actually still have enough time for that. As much as it risks giving scum more info, if that is preferable to lynching a miller, than we can go for it.
Unvote.
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@Barney
You also have to consider risk vs. reward. Barring certain exceptions, all mafiosos are generally equally balanced in terms of role power. So lynching any mafia is as good as lynching any other mafia. So the reward is the same. And even if there was one mafia that was significantly more powerful, we have no way of knowing which it is. So not only is the reward the same, we have no control over it.
But hitting the wrong townie could be a severe blow. But we can choose which townie we are okay losing.
So while we can't maximize our reward, we can minimize our risk by lynching a claim such as miller.