Bastard States Mafia D1

Author: warren42

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BearMan
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@ILikePie5
Why can't I? Isn't that finding information? 
Lunatic
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@ILikePie5
Just because it doesn’t happen doesn’t mean it can’t exist. I’m policy lynching millers if there’s no suitable lynches.
You are just highlighting the faults in following a policy lynch IMO. It's kind of a mindless way to say, i'm lazy and this is an easy option
Lunatic
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Anyways, water is basically town confirmed based on justification, no use even talking about him as a potential lynch IMO.
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Honestly I think having a Miller in a Bastard game makes sense. This would draw some confusion overall in the game and with this type of Bastard game, I think it is designed to set up paranoia. I'm more town reading Water now. I also think Lunatic's explanation of the justification makes sense now I read it. I still don't get it, but ehhh. I'm trying hard not to read into justifications and how strong their link are
Vader
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Still an FoS on Water, but I am not gonna pressure it at all looking at the info and the evidence
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If anybody is a territory- Puerto Rico, Washington DC, Guam, etc they should say so since anything like that is going to seem scummy.

I'm thinking the same way about Alaska & Hawaii- more likely scum as non-48
Vader
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@oromagi
It's hard to determine a theme analysis right now thought. I wouldn't focus too much until most people have char claimed
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@oromagi
Wouldn't Nevada be a more likely mafia state than most?
How so? Do you know something about the theme that we don't?
Vader
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Good point. He seems to very set on finding a theme and determining a theme from posts. Don't read much into it, but you have a good point
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@Lunatic
When is the last time you've seen a fake miller claim, besides the one where I got CC'ed in your Narcos mafia?
I remember tej doing so a few years ago. Was kinda weird since he was godfather...
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@Vader
Trying to figure things out is normal. Knowing things that the town players don't know generally is not...

VTL oromagi
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@ILikePie5
Yea I'm not willing to believe what Warren says much overall. I've said this, but I'm not gonna gamble on a 50/50 bastard or bullshit. Unless there is behavior analysis to support it, it isn't something I look into 
oromagi
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--> @oromagi
Wouldn't Nevada be a more likely mafia state than most?
How so?
  • Las Vegas was founded by the mob.
  • Reputation for secret keeping (what stays in Vegas)
Do you know something about the theme that we don't?
Nope.
Vader
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Tornadoes in my area. Might not be able to be active
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@oromagi
Las Vegas was founded by the mob.
wait was it really?

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@oromagi
  • Las Vegas was founded by the mob.
  • Reputation for secret keeping (what stays in Vegas)
So the theme is seedy states vs other states? How could you figure that out based on what little info the DP has?
oromagi
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@WaterPhoenix
--> @oromagi
Las Vegas was founded by the mob.
wait was it really?

In 1946 mobster Bugsy Siegel, backed by East Coast Jewish gangster Meyer Lansky’s Mexican drug money, opened the Flamingo, a swank resort that took its cues from Hollywood, not Deadwood. Top-drawer talent was booked for its lounges and dozens of celebrities attended its Christmas Day opening.

Siegel was murdered in 1947, but his vision for Las Vegas lived on: During the 1950s and 1960s, mobsters helped build the Sahara, the Sands, the New Frontier and the Riviera. Money from organized crime combined with funds from more respectable investors—Wall Street banks, union pension funds, the Mormon Church and the Princeton University endowment. Tourists flocked to the resorts—8 million a year by 1954—drawn by performers such as Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin and Elvis Presley, and by rows of slot machines and gaming tables.


Discipulus_Didicit
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@town

I think based on post 38 by warren(quoted below) that there are probably three scum.  Whether the people specifically mentioned are scum is obviously something to figure out on our own but I think us facing three scum is true.

Third person to mention or focus on the word sleep. Lunatic, oro, water scum team. GG
oromagi
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@Discipulus_Didicit
> @oromagi
  • Las Vegas was founded by the mob.
  • Reputation for secret keeping (what stays in Vegas)
So the theme is seedy states vs other states? How could you figure that out based on what little info the DP has?

I didn't figure that out.  This is a different thing called brainstorming.


oromagi
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@Discipulus_Didicit
@town

I think based on post 38 by warren(quoted below) that there are probably three scum.  Whether the people specifically mentioned are scum is obviously something to figure out on our own but I think us facing three scum is true.

Third person to mention or focus on the word sleep. Lunatic, oro, water scum team. GG

3 of 12 sounds right
Discipulus_Didicit
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Because three scum or two scum makes sense with 12 players and I feel like Warren might have made that post not even thinking about the fact that two scum was a viable possibility and instead just focused on the comment of who specifically to call scum and "slipped" that there are three rather than two (which is valuable info for us).
warren42
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@Vader
I'm more town reading Warren now.
Idiot. I'm the mod, not a player.
Discipulus_Didicit
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@oromagi
I didn't figure that out.  This is a different thing called brainstorming.
Okay but what is the point of talking about theme analysis if you don't have any info to go on? If you are town you have no idea what the split is right now and you are just opening up holes for the mafia to potentially exploit. Just as an example what if Nevada actually is in this game (about a 24% chance based on number of states and number of players) and it happens to be a town state (about a 75% chance if there are 3 scum)? Later if that townie is forced to claim you have already preemptively cast doubt on their character based on nothing and opened the gates for a potential mislynch.

Theme analysis is not inherently bad but should be saved for people who actually know about the theme somewhat (which at this point is only the scum) and you are a good enough player that you should already know that.
Vader
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@warren42
I meant Water lol
Vader
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I survived the tornado. Still some strong winds
warren42
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@Vader
You said water I changed it, just fucking with you
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@Vader
Glad you are still alive. Please vote oro before the current "strong winds" know your internet out and/or kill you.
Vader
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I should be good. The derecho has passed me
Vader
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@warren42
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@Vader
Yeah but you never know. I mean, I don't want you to die a gruesome death buried under a pile of rubble of course (Because there is a 75% chance that you are on my team) but it is best to be prepared.