I would love to see this evidence. Probably released by the Serbs anyways. It’s no mystery they endorsed the Black Hand and funded it. It’s what I’d do, if I were them.
The black hand was funded by the Serbians and had lots of connections to the Serbian government. However they were not directly agents of the Serbian government. So it is very difficult for anyone to say how much information they had about the assassination.
That’s not what a blank check means lol. It’s unconditional support.
yes, they did not phrase it well. They essentially said "we will support you", but told them that they should attack right now. The Austrians chose to ignore what the germans told them, the end result was they conciously triggered a war with Russia. Germany then tried to avert that war with Russia (the Czar and Kaiser were cousins), but were not able to.
The Russians would’ve protected the Serbs no matter what because of their political and religious interests. Time was not an issue.
This is not true. If the Russians thought they were going to have to fight the Austrians/Germans without French and British support, they wouldn't have done it. They weren't ready for a war. However they proceeded as they were confident the French would support them.
The French and Russians were military allies with regards to Germany and Germany alone. Any aggression by the Germans would be met with retaliation from the French and Russians. Same thing with the British. Without German involvement, the war would’ve never happened. There’s no aggressor dilemma because of the alliances already present. The same events would’ve occurred if the July Crisis didn’t happen.
But you have also hit on the problem. The Germans were allies of the Austrians, The russians chose to guarentee the Serbians. The French were allied with Russia against the Germans. So the pieces were in place for everyone to get sucked in. Which is exactly why the Austrians are at fault for knowingly triggering that chain of events. They knew they were starting a war with russia. They knew the Germans would help them. They knew the French and british would jump in to help the russians against the Germans. So the Austrians knowingly triggered the war.
Without German involvement, the Russians wouldn’t have mobilized against them. Russian mobilization was solely in support of Serbia until Austria-Hungary decided to seek help from the Germans and later declared war along with the Germans, which opened up the mobilization on the Western Front
You have hit the nail on the head (although you seem to have missed it). The moment the Russians mobilized there were 2 options. Either the Russians stopped the mobilization, or Germany had to attack. The German plan for fighting the war depended on them mobilizing faster than the Russians. So if the Russians were allowed to continue mobilizing while the Germans didn't, then Germany was doomed. When the russians started mobilizing and wouldn't stop, the Germany had to declare war.
Cause the Allies won and Central Powers lost? The victor decides the conditions of surrender, not the loser.
True, but in this case the victors chose conditions that were guaranteed to cause the next war. The war indemnity was impossibly high and they knew it. That was the point. They wanted to bankrupt the germans and cripple them so they wouldn't be a threat. But all they were doing was ensuring the Germans would have to start another war to end the conditions the allies were creating.
The French were neutral with regards to Russia and Austria until the Germans declared war on Russia. Because of the military alliance they were forced to mobilize.
Again, this is my point. The german strategy for winning the war required them to mobilize faster than the French or the Russians. That was the only way they could win. So when the russians mobilized against Austria and refused to reverse this the Germans had to attack or they would be destroyed.
The last peace efforts were denied by the Germans lol, where’d you get that info from? And no, Germany is to blame.
Kaiser Wilhelm wanted to stop the war, and gave instructions to that effect. He was undermined by his own people as well as the Austrians.
On 26 July, after reading Serbia's reply, (kaiser)
Wilhelm commented, "
But that eliminates any reason for war"
[132] or "
every cause for war falls to the ground".
[133] Wilhelm noted that Serbia had made "a capitulation of the most humiliating kind",
[133] that "the few reservations [that] Serbia has made with respect to certain points can in my opinion surely be cleared up by negotiation"
Bethmann Hollweg sabotaged Wilhelm's proposal by instructing
von Tschirschky to not restrain Austria.
[note 21] In passing on Wilhelm's message, Bethmann Hollweg excluded the parts wherein the Emperor told the Austrians not to go to war.
[136] Jagow told his diplomats to disregard Wilhelm's peace offer, and continue to press for war.
Without their support the Austrians wouldn’t have done anything plain and simple. Even if they attacked Serbia immediately the Russians would’ve pledged their support as they had been doing so since the beginning of the 20th century.
Russia had backed down in problems with Germany on more than 1 occasion in recent History. If they thought that the French wouldn't support them, they likely would have done so again. They could not have won a war against Austria and Germany without the French. And if the french felt the war was justified because of the murder of the arch-duke, they could have been convinced to stay out. But once the Serbians agreed to main points of the Austrian demands, then the Austrians lost the moral high ground. The Serbians had already capitulated and therefore the Austrians were the aggressors when they attacked.
If the Austrians had done as the Germans said and attacked right away, WW 2 would not have been triggered. It would have been another local confict in the Balkans.
But that is really besides the point. The Austrians are the ones who picked a fight with Russia knowing it would kick off a massive war. The germans did not. The kaiser didn't want the war.
