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@HistoryBuff
but we just proved that you wouldnt trust another poll
whats going on!
Professor Who Accurately Predicted 25 out of 27 Elections Predicts a Trump 2020 Win
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@HistoryBuff
because the polls were fairly accurate last time. The were off by a small margin in a few critical states. Those small errors allowed trump to lose the popular vote by millions of votes, but still steal a win because of an antiquated system that skews power to rural areas.If the polls were off by the same margin this time, Biden will win in an absolute landslide.
Did you even bother reading what fauxlaw wrote?
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@HistoryBuff
antiquated system that skews power to rural areas.
Compared to a system where slavery and Jim Crow would still be legal. Yaaaaa, I’ll take the EC. Genius system of representation. If you feel you’re disenfranchised (you’re not), you’re more than welcome to move to Wyoming. Stuffs cheaper there anyways than California and New York.
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@Dr.Franklin
but we just proved that you wouldnt trust another pollwhats going on!
No we didn't. We just proved the polls were off by a little in 2016. If they were off by that much now Biden would win in a landslide.
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@ILikePie5
Did you even bother reading what fauxlaw wrote?
I did. but since it was dumb I skipped over it. But if you insist.
1. Until around September of any presidential election year, they are based on registered voters, of whom, historically [the last 40 years], only 58% actually vote. Likely voters is the proper target.
this is not true. Here is poll done with a random sample of 1,006 adults. of whom 845 were registered voters
2. The MoE of these polls is typically in excess of ±3%, Too large a margin of error.
This is typical of polls. That is why you never take 1 poll as gospel. You take a look at the average of the polls and the trends. And the trend is horrendous for trump.
3. There are typically too few people polled, typically no more than 1,000 which reduces accuracy. Another half again is sufficient.
Again, this is why you don't rely on any one poll. They can't sample everyone in america.
4. There are typically too many questions. Professional sampling cautions having more than 10 questions. Beyond that, people get bored.
So your argument is that people are saying they support biden instead of trump out of boredom? That's weak.
5. Democrat/Republican respondents are generally weighted with more Ds than Rs. Skewed results.
This might matter if the population of the US was evenly split between D's and R's. It's not. Polling shows that there are more D's than R's. So if you tried to weight it to make them even, you would be skewing your results to favor the R's and throwing off your poll.
And again, this is exactly why you go with an average of polls. When taking samples, you are never going to get a 100% accurate picture. Which is why you look at the trends of lots of polls. And that trend is trump being heavily under water.
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@fauxlaw
Would you like to the honors?
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@HistoryBuff
History is still not your friend. Never has been.
You argue that polls ought to be avoided in singular, but rather an average of them should tell the tale. But if the polls all have flawed methodologies [the very 5 subjects I discussed as flaws in pol polls in my #13], then the averaging of those polls does not improve the stats accuracy. No silk if its a sow.
Your own referenced poll's [https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1214a22020Election.pdf ] methodology was shot to hell, as well:
1. Insufficient sample size
2. Excessive moe
3. Wrong target sampling [registered voters]
4.D to R = 30 to 24%. The skew does matter, and polling agencies can equalize the sampling. I note you did not source your claim of more Ds than Rs, and you cannot because some states do not reveal their registration rolls. But, the number of samples can still be equalized, but they usually are not. Pick a better poll to match your agenda.
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@fauxlaw
You argue that polls ought to be avoided in singular, but rather an average of them should tell the tale. But if the polls all have flawed methodologies [the very 5 subjects I discussed as flaws in pol polls in my #13], then the averaging of those polls does not improve the stats accuracy. No silk if its a sow.
point 1 i disproved.
Point 2 is irrelevant as you are basically arguing that all polls must be false.
Point 3 is also irrelevant if you are averaging polls because then your "sample" size is in the 10 of thousands, therefore the size of individual polls is irrelevant.
Point 4 has some merit. And I might entertain the idea that this would skew less interesting questions. But the who do you support is a pretty straight forward and clear question.
Point 5 is mostly just whining. Random samples show there are more D's than R's. The fact that random samples keep having this happens means that is what the population looks like. If the population didn't look this way, then an average of polls would correct for this as random samples would end up with results showing both.
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@HistoryBuff
The thoughtlessness or thoughtfulness of the populace and the corruptability of the system will decide the outcome.
This was made in April, 2016. The fact that he has proven them right and justified the shit they're saying by everything he's done since then is most hilarious in a sad way.
Words cannot express how utterly shit and corrupt of a president and human being that Trump is. This is the only presidency ever that could make Bush Jr. look smart and respectable.
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@zedvictor4
The thoughtlessness or thoughtfulness of the populace and the corruptability of the system will decide the outcome.
True. And that is why we need to reform the entire policing system to reduce the corruptibility of the system.
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@n8nrgmi
Accurately Predicted 25 out of 27 Elections
False. When you predict something you are making a statement about the future. Norpoth developed his model in the 90's. His model predicted 5 out of 6 presidential elections correctly. The rest of the cases are not predictions but applying the model to elections of the past. There is no "prediction" in that. Further, this thing comes across as cherry picking. Polls are much better predictors of outcomes than statistical models. Performance in a primary is a poll in a sense, but it's indirectly related to likely voters. Polling likely voters directly is superior.
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@Death23
are you sure about that that polling directly is superior? 25 out of 27 is very high, even if it wasn't all technically predicted. i've heard the argument that most elections are not close, so it's not that big of a feat to do so well in predictions.... but when it comes down to it, which method is most accurate?
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@n8nrgmi
Yes, I'm sure. Polling likely voters has superior predictive value because it is more directly related to the event being predicted.
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@HistoryBuff
Undoubtedly.
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@oromagi
The most interesting aspect of the article is that Norpoth's prediction was publicized on March 2nd and has been regurgitated as "news" by conservative outlets every couple of weeks in an effort to create an illusion of new findings, new data when in fact its just the same very basic model ricocheting in a vacuum of optimism for Trumpists.
This guy's model is better: salon.com/2020/03/27/political-prophet-allan-lichtman-trump-is-more-likely-to-lose-because-of-coronavirus/
It also has a flawless track record and accounts for big-picture events like coronavirus.
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@Varrack
And none of the Licthcmans following are based on moral integrity, ergo, humanity is not primarily based on moral integrity when it comes to politics i.e. they can be swayed in the wind at last moment ---as happened to Hillary by Putin social shenangans----.
..."Those would be "Key 5, the short-term economy — many economists are predicting that we're going to slide into a recession, or may already be in a recession —
.... and Key 8, the social unrest key.
.....And it makes Key 10, foreign policy or military failure, even more shaky than before." Lichtman earlier suggested that relations with North Korea and the unstable situation in the Middle East could endanger Key 10 for Trump.
....If any two of those three keys turn against Trump, he is a predicted failure," Lichtman said. "If zero or one turn against him, he is a predicted winner. I obviously haven't made a final call yet, since we don't know how this crisis will ultimately be resolved or not resolved in the upcoming months."....
So basically, humans see no morals in politics ergo they have little morals when it comes to politics. There are some exceptions and I posted on in another thread regarding TN pig farmer who agrees with 80% of Trumpets polices but cannot stand the lies, bigotry and narrcisistic ego. Here is the LINK to this man who has placed his morals ahead of political nonsense.
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@ebuc
Trump can use China to meddle now since Trump is now a China puppet.
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@Greyparrot
Putin, China and anyone else with no moral integrity use Trumpet to meddle i.e. orange-parrot has it backwards.
Those with no morals will spin the wind in any direction backwards, forward, left or right, to achieve their goals.
The only thing you have correct, is that Trumpet is a puppet and that is true of most presidents, ---old news-- who are beholden to the interests of the USA peoples and the economy { corporate }. The new news is the TN pig farmer and his republican friends, who want to oust the narccistic, bigoted and most lying ever mafia boss ---president in name only-- from office.
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@ebuc
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@Greyparrot
“I agree with 80% of what he does; I just can’t stand a liar, ”Tosh, 70, said of Trump. LINK
Orange-parrot dispises TN pig farmer and calls on orange-bad-man hero to create immoral windy weather for those with moral integrity.
I predicted Trump would win in 2016, and I said why it was going to happen. No one acknowledged. This election is closer though, because Covid was not handled correctly.
It sucks, but you have to put people in groups, which I hate to do.
It's basically what groups like Trump and what groups don't that will decide the election.
Military- Mostly like Trump, which includes their families
Police- Mostly like Trump but are getting smaller, because they are all retiring due to lawlessness that is being condoned by failed Governors, who are losing the vote of normal people that are not outspoken. Families of police are probably growing in numbers that will be voting as well.
Older People- mostly like Trump and hate the protesting/rioting from kids that have no idea what they are doing.
Anyone who stopped watching the MSM because of the falsehoods being reported. (This is a lot of people), I bet they vote for Trump just to prove something.
People who listen to talk radio love Trump, and these are the people that work for a living with no time to protest.
People on Twitter and other social media platforms that believe everything they read-hate Trump, but for some reason the polls think these are the only people that exist.
College kids and professors-don't like Trump, These are the most outspoken, and really the only thing you hear, and really not that many of them.
Large cities- hate trump, but already proven in 2016 that they don't really matter because it is a republic.
People who are afraid of being portrayed as racist if they say anything positive about Trump--- A shit ton of people that are not being polled.
Government employees- Hate Trump, but there are not that many of them.
Black's is a toss up.... I bet there is a silent majority of these as well that like him.
Hispanics is a toss up... I'd say 50/50
Indian, which is now a large percentage of the population, and growing exponentially, love Trump
Chinese, if I am not mistaken-love Trump.
Small business owners love Trump
People on the fence are probably leaning more towards Biden.
Large business owners probably donate to the Dems but really don't want them to win, like Tesla. They just want to make it look like they are for Social Justice
Any feedback on additional groups for, or against to help the percentage are welcomed. Then we can all weigh them together and come to a conclusion.
Below is a little snippet of why Republicans don't want mail in voting.
Why we don't want mail in voting, when people say there is no evidence that it will be tampered with, or has ever been tampered with in the past. Because people who say they love America will break the law to get Trump out of office, it's been happening for 4 years, especially people in Government, purposely omitting information and deleting emails to obtain warrants under false pretenses. All it takes is a couple of mailboxes stolen in majority trump voting districts to skew the votes, and I know many people that would gladly do this because they think they are breaking the law for the greater good, I say it is anarchy/insanity, Republicans would never do that because we understand the need for fair competition. Mailboxes in Maryland were stolen and the whole mail in ballot procedure was a disaster. I heard it happened in Texas as well.
I have not posted in a while.... Felt the need to do so. Feedback would be great because I am sure I am missing quite a few groups.