Professor Who Accurately Predicted 25 out of 27 Elections Predicts a Trump 2020 Win
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Remember Trump in 2016 was predicted only 11% a chance of victory so we can't say yet.
Norpoth said if Trump is able to refrain from commenting or tweeting about political opponents and instead focus on the continued economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, he stands a good chance of winning a second term.
"He had some strong points that gave him that big win in the primaries, and I think that he has to take advantage of that," he said. "I think that anything that distracts from that will not be good for him."
this seems to be super critical. IE if Trump is able to stop being Trump, he has a good chance of winning. But trump is never able to stop with petty nonsense. It is a large percentage of his personality.
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@HistoryBuff
do you honestly think bernie sanders would be polling better than biden is now? i can't see that. bernie does have the enthusiasm thing going for him though, as does trump with his base.
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@n8nrgmi
Only a 33-40% of Democrats support Joe because they like him. All the others just hate Trump. His support is thin. When Joe comes out of his basement to debate Trump, he is going to get crucified. Trump has been defined for 4 years. Joe Biden hasn’t.
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@ILikePie5
Defined as someone who is either an absolute moron or an absolutely masterful actor who appears to be one.
Ok?
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@n8nrgmi
do you honestly think bernie sanders would be polling better than biden is now? i can't see that. bernie does have the enthusiasm thing going for him though, as does trump with his base.
i'm not really sure. The vast majority of Biden's support is "he's not trump". Very few people who are going to vote for biden are excited to vote for him. Very few think he is going to take on and solve america's problems. But their options are a lunatic who is actively trying to make things worse, or a guy who is going to fight to keep the status quo. And the status quo is better than trump.
Sanders would have much better energy behind his campaign. People were excited to support him. He had a talented and enthusiastic team.
I think that sanders' healthcare plans would be extremely popular right now. The pandemic has really highlighted how fragile american healthcare is. You are one global event away from losing your job, your healthcare and being completely ruined financially (assuming you survive). I think that message would crush trump right now. But we will never know. Biden has promised little to no change on healthcare and trump has promised to make healthcare worse. So there really isn't anything to talk about on that front in this election.
What's remarkable is that such a simple model has such a good track record. I'm not even sure that calling it a model is fair since its really just a restatement of two electoral principles.
- An incumbent POTUS enjoys a major advantage, and
- The candidate with the greater popular support in the New Hampshire and S. Carolina enjoys a major advantage.
So Norpoth published his forecast on March 2. His model does not account for Coronavirus or its impact on the primaries. Norpoth's model is fixed for this election so even dramatic shifts like Trump cancelling the election or one or both candidates dying would not change the 91% odds favoring Trump.
Norpoth's model reminds me of the old adage that an amateur can improve on a meteorologist's forecast by simply predicted that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather. The amateur can beat the expert for long stretches of calculating small chances of rain or snow but when a hurricane or a tornado comes along, the meteorologist is ready with a warning while the amateur's model always misses. Norpoth's model does not take account for any part of our current crisis, so I don't think it's telling us much.
The most interesting aspect of the article is that Norpoth's prediction was publicized on March 2nd and has been regurgitated as "news" by conservative outlets every couple of weeks in an effort to create an illusion of new findings, new data when in fact its just the same very basic model ricocheting in a vacuum of optimism for Trumpists.
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@oromagi
that was an interesting read. thank you for linking it.
I liked this line in particular "This was by no means the rare exception that proves the rule. The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall."
biden's lead has massively increased since these findings came out. The polls when this came out were biden up by a couple points. The polls now are biden up by double digits.
add to this that the primary issue people care about (the global pandemic) is being bungled and actively sabotaged by the white house, and trump's numbers are unlikely to improve as the pandemic drags on and potentially continues to worsen.
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@HistoryBuff
i would give biden more credit on healthcare. he wants a public option. one that reimburses medical providers at medicare rates or thereabouts. that means universal coverage and inching us closer to spending what other countries spend on healthcare. (which on average is half of what we spend)
We’re also forgetting that if colleges are online, turnout in college towns in swing states is going to decline by a lot. Places like University of Michigan, University of New Hampshire, will have far lower turnout among young people which is crucial to Democrats. Colleges are the primary grounds where young people get registered as well
What you're all ignoring about political polls are their inherent inaccuracy.
1. Until around September of any presidential election year, they are based on registered voters, of whom, historically [the last 40 years], only 58% actually vote. Likely voters is the proper target.
2. The MoE of these polls is typically in excess of ±3%, Too large a margin of error.
3. There are typically too few people polled, typically no more than 1,000 which reduces accuracy. Another half again is sufficient.
4. There are typically too many questions. Professional sampling cautions having more than 10 questions. Beyond that, people get bored.
5. Democrat/Republican respondents are generally weighted with more Ds than Rs. Skewed results.
Fix those, you make pol polls more accurate. But which agency will do that? They all have an agenda that works in their favor. They're not going to change it. So, don't depend on them.
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@ILikePie5
Also, much of the rioting is going on in swing states. People are not going to support violence in November, and will remember (or be reminded) who allowed the riots to get out of control.
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@Greyparrot
Also, much of the rioting is going on in swing states. People are not going to support violence in November, and will remember (or be reminded) who allowed the riots to get out of control.
When a fifth of Americans wants statues of Jefferson and Washington taken down, we know we have a problem
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@ILikePie5
When a fifth of Americans wants statues of Jefferson and Washington taken down, we know we have a problem.
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@Greyparrot
Also, much of the rioting is going on in swing states. People are not going to support violence in November, and will remember (or be reminded) who allowed the riots to get out of control.
Except that all the polling shows biden is much, much more trusted on the issue of race relations. So the fact that there is widespread protests about racial inequality plays to biden's strength, not trumps.
It also doesn't help trump to look both impotent (because he can't stop the protests) as well as dictatorial by ordering what are essentially secret police to attack the protesters. It is a really bad look either way.
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@n8nrgmi
i would give biden more credit on healthcare. he wants a public option. one that reimburses medical providers at medicare rates or thereabouts. that means universal coverage and inching us closer to spending what other countries spend on healthcare. (which on average is half of what we spend).
biden's plan still leaves millions uninsured. It also leaves 10's of millions under-insured. It does not solve america's healthcare problems, it just helps sand off some of the worst "rough edges" of the terrible healthcare system. But that is exactly what biden wants. Do just enough to look good, but not nearly enough to actually fix the problem, because that would undercut the profits of the people who donate to his campaign.
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@Intelligence_06
if you were to get on a plane but had an 11% chance of crashing and falling, which one would you pick?
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@Dr.Franklin
if you were to get on a plane but had an 11% chance of crashing and falling, which one would you pick?
That's a great analogy. Trump winning is like a plane crash. It is fiery, tragic and kills alot of people.
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@Dr.Franklin
11% of crashing. Again, most Americans don't think of it like this. Video games and cherries ain't gonna be the same.
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@HistoryBuff
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@Intelligence_06
so you dont trust it?
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@HistoryBuff
would you get on the plane?
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@Dr.Franklin
Separation of aviation and politician. 88% is not 100%. I have seen way too many fallacies that says one contention is undoubtedly true because 51% of the evidence supports it.
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@Intelligence_06
percantage does not matter in predicting elections
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@Dr.Franklin
would you get on the plane?
of course not. I would protest and make sure the government regulated that incredibly unsafe industry.
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@Dr.Franklin
That's the point.
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@HistoryBuff
then why would you trust any poll claiming the same of an election?
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@Dr.Franklin
then why would you trust any poll claiming the same of an election?
because the polls were fairly accurate last time. The were off by a small margin in a few critical states. Those small errors allowed trump to lose the popular vote by millions of votes, but still steal a win because of an antiquated system that skews power to rural areas.
If the polls were off by the same margin this time, Biden will win in an absolute landslide.