-->
@Buddamoose
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
US States Mafia DP2
Posts
Total:
191
-->
@drafterman
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
Please reference first that DDO is the only place mafia is ever played and people never play mafia anywhere else.
This is funny, you can't actually address my points as to why the SoP of VTNL'ing at MYLO is stupid. So instead you go , "BuT MaFiA RaReLy If EveR dO iT oN DdO" as if DDO is the only place mafia is ever played, and people never ever deviate from DDO SoP.
And you wanna laugh at me as if im stupid? Who is the one that cant differentiate between a question and a statement? Who is the one who isn't comprehending basic probabilities and that 1/4 is less than 1/3?
You call it a random lynch, but a likely 1/2 is one of the highest base probabilities town would ever get in a game. Even guilties are essentially a 1/2 because either the person's guilty or the cops lying. So it's still an either/or pick, 50% base probability.
Attention: For some reason I can't bold, Pie is replacing for Danielle
I'm willing to acknowledge you might otherwise think VTNL'ing at MYLO is smart, because mafia have generally always killed regardless on DDO. But times change, the game evolves. Again, VTNL'ing on DP1 was always done, until people realized it generally benefits mafia to do so.
Just like VTNL'ing at MYLO leaves the choice entirely up to mafia. Either there is someone they can kill which will help their cause, or they can choose to no kill and return to the status quo of the previous DP, leaving town right back where they started with no change to baseline probabilities.
The smart choice would be to either decide and stick to the path that one of us is scum, the other is town, and lynch between.
Or try to lynch scum out of the other 4.
Reagrdless of whether we do either of those or VTNL, the risk of a loss with a mislynch will be present regardless.
Congrats, it's probably MYLO. That means town risks a loss with any lynch. So acting as if that's a reason to not lynch is just not bright. Because then you might as well advocate that town just not ever lynch when that lynch can result in a loss.
Which just means either mafia wins, or the game freezes in place and never proceeds past that point.
Of course, this argument doesn't address why a Mafioso would push for a VTNL. The No Kill gambit is just that: a gambit. It's a gamble. Why push for a VNTL based on a gamble, when they can push for a mislynch and win the game outright? So even if it is sensibly argued that NKing on a MYLO night makes sense, it doesn't make sense why Mafia would choose that path if they could avoid it by simply winning the game.
-->
@Buddamoose
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
The progression of Budda's logic:
It's SOP!
It's SOP?
It's SOP somewhere else, on the moon, maybe.
It's a gamble somewhere else, on the moon, maybe.
It's maybe happened once? In a fever dream I had after some bad peyote?
-->
@drafterman
Now I'm willing to concede we might both be town. That would mean 2/4 of remaining players have mafia within. This is still 50% base probability.
So either one of us is scum in which case it's 1/2 and 1/4.
Or neither of us is in which case it's 2/4.
But VTNL'ing isnt going to produce some magically game breaking result. It only leaves the potential for a no kill gambit present, and either hurts town via the loss of a player mafia specifically wants to eliminate, or a return to the status quo tomorrow.
-->
@drafterman
It's SOP!It's SOP?
You are more than welcome to point out where I said it as a statement of fact and not a question. Else you are blatantly lying.
-->
@drafterman
And regardless of whether or not it's SoP here, cats out of the bag hombre. If mafia were gonna kill, there sure not going to now that I pointed out killing at MYLO is largely unbeneficial.
-->
@Buddamoose
But VTNL'ing isnt going to produce some magically game breaking result.
But it could, do you deny that possibility?
It only leaves the potential for a no kill gambit present, and either hurts town via the loss of a player mafia specifically wants to eliminate,
WRONG, Bucko, remember?
Your words: "killing at MYLO is mathematically the wrong choice for mafia. It's not gonna take a genius to compromise that 1/4(25%) is less than 1/3(33.3_%)."
or a return to the status quo tomorrow.
Yeah, like I said: either we get results that help us, or we are no worse off!
-->
@Buddamoose
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
The Scum PM:
ethang: That was close, who should we kill tonight? Drafterman?
Budda: I know, I was afraid I was going to have to bus you. Draft is town reading me, so we can use that to our advantage. Let's get GP, he's the bigger threat.
...
Budda: Shit. That fucker is annoying. We should have NKd him.
-->
@drafterman
Ur more than welcome to argue as to why my points on why the SoP is terribad are actually incorrect. But I see all you can do is scream
"BuT SoP hErE Is FoR MaFiA tO KilL"
And how long did you think a mafia SoP that more greatly benefits town, was going to last anyways? Do you often expect opposing teams to operate in your sides benefit in competitions?
-->
@drafterman
So you think EthanG is my scum partner? Ok cool, cause I think he is scum too. Shall we lynch him?
-->
@Buddamoose
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
And you do realize you look more like Ethan's teammate rignt? Hardcore push him the whole DP then switch at the end to lynch a townie?
Vote Count Analysis would peg you as scum AF based off that, with EthanG being your likely teammate.
-->
@drafterman
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
Cats already out of the bag hombre. It doesn't matter whats been done on DDO. I just explained why it's largely unbeneficial for mafia to kill at MYLO. Meanwhile all you can do is say
"BuT ItS NoT BeEn DoNe On DdO."
Even assuming mafia is only played on DDO. And also assuming players here NEVER look up mafia theory, I just outlined exactly why killing at MYLO would be stupid. You really think Mafia are gonna go ahead and kill someone when they now fully realize it wouldn't be in their benefit to?
-->
@Buddamoose
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
The progression of Budda's logic:
It's SOP!
It's SOP?
It's SOP somewhere else, on the moon, maybe.
It's a gamble somewhere else, on the moon, maybe.
It's maybe happened once? In a fever dream I had after some bad peyote?
I invented this idea. It's mine.
-->
@drafterman
Like I said, are you pissed that I screwed you being able to no kill/doc save gambit?
Or are you just being obtuse as to what is very simple game theory.
Even assuming mafia is only played on DDO. And also assuming players here NEVER look up mafia theory, I just outlined exactly why killing at MYLO would be stupid. You really think Mafia are gonna go ahead and kill someone when they now fully realize it wouldn't be in their benefit to?
Is it better for mafia to push for a mislynch at MYLO or a NL at MYLO only to waive their kill on a gambit?
-->
@drafterman
Yeah now ur just blatantly lying about what I'm saying. I was willing to entertain us both being town. Not anymore, because though I can see you maybe thinking VTNL'ing at MYLO helped town, you haven't addressed the reasoning supplied for why it actually doesn't and chiefly benefits mafia, and continue to act as if mafia will choose to kill, when the cats out of the bag and they know no killing with a VTNL chiefly benefits them.
VTL Drafter
I'm thinking ur pissed because I just cut off ur plan to gambit a doc save in conjunction with a no kill with this. Hence why you flipped from "we could both be town" to "no you must be scum."
If you actually thought VTNL'ing was the best choice, it'd be the best choice regardless of whether you thought I was scum or town. But something tells me that has changed 😏
-->
@Buddamoose
If you actually thought VTNL'ing was the best choice, it'd be the best choice regardless of whether you thought I was scum or town. But something tells me that has changed
Uh, I've never waivered from my stance that we should VTNL, or that you are scum.
UVC
Drafterman (1/4) - Budda ← Vote here if you are dumb/scum
VTNL (1/4) - Drafterman ← Vote here if you are smart/town
-->
@drafterman
Is it better for mafia to push for a mislynch at MYLO or a NL at MYLO only to waive their kill on a gambit?
This assumes VTNL'ing is beneficial for town/the towny thing to do. You are basically saying, "hey, I could have pushed for a ML, but look at how I didn't! That makes me so town right?
When either way you pick it's beneficial. I would posit unless you are confident you can secure that lynch, you would choose the second path.
This is basically WIFOM
I could easily just as say, is it better for mafia to guilty the person who guiltied them, or produce an innocent result?
The obvious answer would be the first. But yet here I am, scum in your eyes and I claimed the second, less than obvious answer.
It's almost as if mafia are incentivized to never be overtly obvious in their actions. Imagine that
-->
@Buddamoose
Why would Mafia push for a NL to try and win the game on a gamble when they can push for a lynch and just win the game? Show me the "game theory" there.The obvious answer would be the first. But yet here I am, scum in your eyes and I claimed the second, less than obvious answer.