Themeless Mafia 1 - Day Phase 2

Author: Lucky

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Lunatic
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@Danielle
Link the post where zaradi actually bread crumbed a power role? 
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@Danielle
"I'm gonna throw this out there: if Ragnar's lynched today and I get shot tonight, I think there's strong merit to pressuring coal. Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming."


Nevermind I found where you think it was a breadcrumb. 
Lunatic
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So why did Danielle say she thinks this is an all vanilla game if she thought as far as yesterday that Zaradi was softing the other PR?
Danielle
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@Lunatic
So why did Danielle say she thinks this is an all vanilla game if she thought as far as yesterday that Zaradi was softing the other PR?

I assumed that if there was a doctor, he would have protected the obvious NK target. coal reminded me a doctor could still be in the game and I thought about what Zaradi said. He literally threatened a hardclaim. Saying that at all and then claiming vanilla would make him definitive scum (unless he was trying to say he was lying to draw a NK, which I would not buy at all). So basically we have to wonder why he, an experienced player, would tell the mafia who the doctor was for absolutely no reason when they already knew who the cop was. 

Side note: Is it not obvious that I'm not closely reading the OP? I never do. I'm notorious for missing things in the OP and being called scummy for what I overlook at times.

It would be easy for scum to make a case against me based on my confusion last day phase. Let's see if they do that. 
Danielle
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@Lunatic
Btw @ Lunatic if I am scum, that would mean Zaradi really is the doctor and that scum either role blocked him or took the risk of not successfully killing Ragnar which I personally would not do in this game as scum -- it doesn't make sense since town is already 1 down one player (Objectivity). Scum knew there was no doc. Zaradi said nothing about being role blocked either and there's no one else scum would have role blocked since we all talked about Zaradi's breadcumb yesterday. 
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@Danielle
Danielle, sorry, I see what you are saying now. May have been tunnel vision a bit based on the last phase.

I am unsure what to think about zaradi. He is either extremely town for his actions with Ragnar last phase, or he is extremely scum because to the same extent, the argument I used on Danielle kind of applies to him too; If he had knowledge of a 2 goon set up with Ragnar claiming what he did, he knew there was a vast array of fake claims he could pick from. The "Hard-claiming" statement indicates he might have been hinting a power role, but without knowing what exactly Ragnar was, he couldn't pull the direction of doctor. 

If this isn't a 2 goon set up though he has to be a doctor, and we need to know why he didn't protect Ragnar.

Unvote, vtl zaradi.
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@Danielle
Btw @ Lunatic if I am scum, that would mean Zaradi really is the doctor and that scum either role blocked him or took the risk of not successfully killing Ragnar which I personally would not do in this game as scum -- it doesn't make sense since town is already 1 down one player (Objectivity). Scum knew there was no doc. Zaradi said nothing about being role blocked either and there's no one else scum would have role blocked since we all talked about Zaradi's breadcumb yesterday. 
Yeah you are right. I wasn't looking at the situation objectively, and didn't pick up the same logic also makes zaradi look bad, if not worse.
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I actually tr Lunatic more now because as another town player I would think my behavior was scummy too. He did a good job explaining it without feeling opportunistic.

I wanna hear from Zaradi ASAP as well.
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@Zaradi
If mafia had a role blocker, they prob would have role blocked Ragnar and killed someone else (assuming doc would be on Ragnar).

So I'm convinced there are two goons and no doctor which means Zaradi lied.

Because it takes 4 to lynch, I'ma vtl Zaradi to get him to 2/4.
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Official Vote Count

Zaradi [2]: Lunatic (36), Danielle (39),
coal [0]:
airmax1227 [0]:
Danielle [0]:
Lunatic [0]:
sui_generis [0]:
oromagi [0]:

Not Voting [5]: airmax1227, coal, Zaradi, sui_generis, oromagi

With 7 in play, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 11:00pm EST Wednesday, May 27th.
oromagi
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@Lunatic
Never mind I found where you think it was a breadcrumb
I still want post#. 

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@oromagi
632  of last phase
Danielle
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@oromagi
I still want post#. 

I have answered this like 4 times already. He said it in POST 632.


Added:05.22.20 12:45AM

"I'm gonna throw this out there: if Ragnar's lynched today and I get shot tonight, I think there's strong merit to pressuring coal. Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming." - Zaradi 


Danielle
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@oromagi
Sorry about your mom. I'm an asshole. I forgot. Hang in there, ok? <3 
Lunatic
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@Lucky
I do remember reading that post but not making much of it, because I already thought it was obvious at that point that Zaradi was the second mason, and even if was wrong I didn't think it mattered because I was busy trying to push the point I thought was obvious that we shouldn't have been trying to dig for the information to begin with. The gravity of Ragnar flipping cop though brings out the implications of that post a little more strongly though. Zaradi will claim doctor now, he has no choice, but if he wasn't roleblocked, that is heavily suspect, as is the fact that he didn't protect ragnar. The only logical explanation I can see him making is that he protected himself; If that's the case we have to consider the fact that many mods don't allow self protection from doctor's. But it's worth asking lucky. He seems to think asking questions about hypothetical in game roles are okay based on the mafia games the other night, so I don't see why he wouldn't answer this:

@ Lucky, can doctors self protect? If someone was roleblocked would they be told their action failed?
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@Lunatic
@ Lucky, can doctors self protect?
Doctor role pm:

Welcome!

You are a Town Doctor.

You may target one player per night phase. This player will be protected from kills during that night phase. You cannot target yourself.

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated.

Confirm by replying with your role name and alignment.

If someone was roleblocked would they be told their action failed?
Players are not told that they are blocked unless it cannot be helped. For instance, a Cop who is blocked by a Roleblocker has to be told something for their investigation result. Normally the Cop is given a message like "No Result". A protective role would not be told that their action has failed [1][2].
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@Danielle
Thx.  So u r theorizing “if I get shot” = PR/ doc.  Yes?

Lunatic
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Okay well that's good to know; and kind of bad. Maybe I should have waited to ask that to hear zaradis answer because I inadvertently gave him a scapegoat. Now he can claim he did actually protect ragnar but was likely blocked.

And he still could claim to have targeted someone else entirely though that will look even worse.

I am kind of inclinded now to doubt any answer he gives unfortunately but I will try to be open minded.

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@oromagi
Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming

This part is even more damning because what sense would that make if he is vanilla?

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~~~
Lucky
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Official Vote Count

Zaradi [2]: Lunatic (36), Danielle (39),
coal [0]:
airmax1227 [0]:
Danielle [0]:
Lunatic [0]:
sui_generis [0]:
oromagi [0]:

Not Voting [5]: airmax1227, coal, Zaradi, sui_generis, oromagi

With 7 in play, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 11:00pm EST Wednesday, May 27th.

Danielle
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@oromagi
So u r theorizing “if I get shot” = PR/ doc.  Yes?
No, he was claiming to have a role in order to defend Ragnar.

"I'm gonna throw this out there: if Ragnar's lynched today and I get shot tonight, I think there's strong merit to pressuring coal. Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming." 

At that point, Ragnar told us he was a cop or mason. Zaradi was soft claiming a role here. Zaradi being a doctor or mason were the only two options he could be claiming based on potential game set-ups. We now know the doctor can't self protect so the doctor, if there was one, would not have been on anyone but Ragnar who was the obvious night kill target (and Zaradi would have protected the COP if he were really the doctor). The mafia targeted Ragnar with no fear that Ragnar would be protected. Ergo mafia knew there was no doc. There is no way that Zaradi is town in my mind. 
Danielle
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@Lunatic
Now he can claim he did actually protect ragnar but was likely blocked.

He did not hint at all whatsoever that he was RB when he posted at the start of this day phase, which he would have had to do if it were true. 

If the mafia had a RB, it would be more useful to role block Ragnar and night kill the doctor to get rid of him; then kill Ragnar the following night. It's not like Zaradi didn't out himself with a role yesterday which was called out multiple times. Mafia would know he was claimin doc by whichever set up their scum team is based on. So it would make no sense to kill Ragnar first, because with a dead doc they could just kill Ragnar the following day and know the town lost their only two roles. Per my last post, there is no way Zaradi is town imo. 


Lunatic
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@Danielle
He did not hint at all whatsoever that he was RB when he posted at the start of this day phase, which he would have had to do if it were true. 
I know. The only potential excuse then is that he hoped maybe enough people didn't pick up on the fact that he was a doctor, and admitting it would unnecessarily  out him? Or he is going to have to claim vanilla and that we are reading too much into his post from last day phase? I am thinking he will attempt the latter, but I would have a hard time buying that argument.

If the mafia had a RB, it would be more useful to role block Ragnar and night kill the doctor to get rid of him; then kill Ragnar the following night. It's not like Zaradi didn't out himself with a role yesterday which was called out multiple times. Mafia would know he was claimin doc by whichever set up their scum team is based on. So it would make no sense to kill Ragnar first, because with a dead doc they could just kill Ragnar the following day and know the town lost their only two roles. Per my last post, there is no way Zaradi is town imo. 
Yeah I would still like to hear his response, but you are probably right. The more I think about it, the harder I am going to buy any potential excuse here. 
Danielle
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Hmm...  let's leave him with 2 votes and see what he says. 
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@Danielle
If Zaradi is scum who do you think his partner is?

I am still thinking coal is VERY likely given the fact that Coal refused to scum read zaradi for his defense of Ragnar the same way he did me. In fact almost all of their interactions seem "weightless" like they are trying to bicker without any consequence. Zaradi inquisition into coal's behavior implies he may scum read some of it, but even at the end of last day phase Zaradi refused to scum read Coal even though he was on the same page about his role-fishing being anti-town. And Coal straight up doesn't wanna say anything Zaradi does it "scummy". At the beginning of the phase he notes being "frustrated" with zaradi's actions though. Again weightless.

And I can't exclude the inactives. It will be interesting to see where airmax, oro and sui stand on zaradi though.
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@Danielle
Thx 4 repeating. I am sold that Zaradi is claiming something
Lunatic
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@coal
So there's a world where I read your behavior as that you were actually trying to draw the NK by implying you were some kind of power role, potentially with some association to Ragnar (read: mason); in which case, what would have happened is that scum would have killed vanilla and not a power role and at least the cop would be alive.  So even though you lied, the effect was pro-town; and that seems to be in line with your intentions.


BTW for this to have been zaradi's strategy it would also have required inside information that there was not another power role, because if their was he would have or should have been CC'ed when the other power role saw all this. The only other explanation for this to be valid is if there was another person as a power role, they were too inactive to see all of that. The only person I can think of who didn't opine after all of this happened is airmax. So if airmax isn't the other PR (something I think is a given) then you can't even say Zaradi was trying to bait the nk.
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@Lunatic
Don't you find it kind of interesting that  Danielle seems to just assume this is the second set up? 
I do, for the same reason I led a lynch on you yesterday.  So I am reflecting on that; but the reason I'm not pushing harder is because as scum Danielle would have had to know Ragnar was town, which means that she should have been off Ragnar's lynch as loudly and dramatically as she could have been if she was scum.  The fact that she didn't hide from Ragnar's wagon tells me that she was reading his behavior (correctly), which is, again, why Ragnar's play is so irritating.  

I still haven't updated my read on Danielle because I have to think more about it.  I'm not sure that my read on Danielle has changed, but I'm not sure that it hasn't.  She said she's going to re-read the DP from her new perspective with the flip in mind.  I will assess what she posts, and indicate what impact it has.  But she needs to react to the flip before I can say anything meaningful.   

At the moment, though, again, I still lean town on Danielle because I just do not see the world where Danielle is scum and stays on the lynch.  That is something that I don't even think Lucky would do.  Maybe, but it would be inconceivable to me that anyone with an informed perspective other than the mason stays on Ragnar's lynch post his "claim".  I will post more on that later on, as well, once others post their thoughts on the flip on this issue. But again, as I alluded to in response to Zaradi, once scum realized what Ragnar said and what it meant, they should have either gotten the fuck off that lynch or they should have been lurking to avoid the indignity of being forced to hammer who they knew was a town power role.  So the lurkers are who I want to talk today.  

 I mean I fully buy that it is, but like you said, there's no obvious conclusion that it should be the second one. Also she never backed off the Ragnar read (even you reluctantly did), and she kept asking the other power role to "confirm" ragnar.
That's one way of reading her reaction so far, and it's one that I considered, and am still considering.  But I'm still at the same place with the Ragnar lynch.  I VTL'd him for death and I maintain that was the right thing to do based on everything he did and failed to do in the last DP, and that is why I see absolutely no reason why there's not a doctor in the game.  Ragnar's being at L-1 wasn't just some accident, and the Doc may have (with ample justification) believed that Ragnar was fake claming because he denied town the chance to counterclaim him.  Ragnar would have only been confirmed town following an unrebutted hard claim; in which case the doctor should have been on him; in which case he would be alive to post results today, assuming that the doc wasn't role blocked.  

So my thoughts on Danielle aren't per se changing; but they're not per say not changing.  Remains to be seen, I still lean town though.  

The fact that you asked those questions tells me that you realize, now, that you were wrong about Ragnar's role and you're backing off of it.  Maybe it's because you're worried I'm going to VTL you for death, but on the other hand you seem to be thinking about what happened last night in a way that is contrary to what I would expect.

As scum you have really no option other than to VTL me for death and try to manipulate others into building a wagon on me, based on some creative reinterpretation of what happened yesterday.  I have some more thoughts on that too, that I will post after other people post their thoughts on the flip.  But, you have moved yourself from the "VTL for Death" pile to the "I am willing to consider and explore your lynch" pile.  

I know that if I lead the wagon on you -- which I absolutely could do, in the same way I did it yesterday and for at least the reasons I've already said -- I know what you're going to do, though, and that is going to piss me off.  You're going to scum read me with some bullshit, ill conceived rant that is going to result in you and I dominating the entire DP which is going to give the -- many -- inactives every chance to lurk and avoid being pressured.  That is at least as much negative town utility as the bullshit Ragnar pulled yesterday, so I'm not doing it for the moment.  Do not misinterpret that as my saying I'm not suspicious of you, but I don't want this DP to go in that direction.  If it has to the end of the DP, then so be it.  But we aren't there yet, and I don't think I see a reason to start the DP in that direction because it's just going to create chaos.  

So that is why I am not voting you at this moment.  I want to see, as well, how you respond to other people in the absence of you thinking I am tunnelling you because I know how you're going to respond of I do that and I don't see the value in that.  
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@Lunatic
BTW for this to have been zaradi's strategy it would also have required inside information that there was not another power role,
Wrong, because he never hard claimed either.  He neither CC'd Ragnar, nor hard claimed.  What he did was he breadcrumed (at least to me, is how I read it) that he was the other mason, Ragnar being the former -- which means he was at once drawing the NK, which means he isn't the other power role.  Unless he knew he wouldn't be night killed; in which case you are probably town.  But I don't think he knew that.  Not based on how he played that yesterday.  I think drawing the NK away from Ragnar was his intention; based on the fact that he believed Ragnar (which would be consistent with the fact that he was not, in any meaningful way, supprotive of Ragnar's lynch beyond just saying that he would only be willing to VTL Ragnar at the end of the DP for results).