Themeless Mafia 1 - Day Phase 2

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Rules

- Please treat your fellow players with respect. This game can get heated at times, but toxicity, harassment, and personal insults will not be tolerated.
- Do not talk about this game while it is ongoing outside of the threads that I have created for this game. Do not discuss other ongoing games in this thread.
- Cryptography/illegible/tiny text is forbidden. Breadcrumbing is fine and does not break this rule.
- Provable randomness is not allowed. You can use random.org to make decisions and you can say "I used random.org," but you cannot post screenshots of your results.
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- Once you're dead, you may no longer post in the thread or in any PTs you have access to.
- Play to your win condition and remember to have fun.
- Use the the edit feature will result in a modkill.

Activity & Deadlines

- Prods will be issued after 24 consecutive hours without posting. Prodded players will have 12 hours to post content in the thread before I look for a replacement.
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- Day 1 will have a deadline of 4 days. Day 2+ will have a deadline of 3 days. Extensions may be granted if players request and I see it fit.
- Night Phases will have a deadline of 24 hours. There will be no extensions for the night phase, but I can accelerate the night if every living player requests it.

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- Votes must be made in bold, such as: [Vote: Lucky], [Lucky], [VTNL].
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- A player is lynched if they receive a majority of votes (50% of players alive + 1, rounded down).
- Once a majority vote is reached, the game enters Twilight and any unvotes/votes will not count.
- If a majority vote is not reached by the end of the deadline, then no one will be lynched.
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Setup Information

NewD3 (as designed by RadiantCowbells):

I am unaware of how to copy images into DebateArt, so please use the above links to access a chart graphing all possible setups. Further explanation below:

Each NewD3 Game will be given a setup that incorporates one mafia role from the top of a column, and then two town roles from a row below the selected mafia role.
The remaining six roles will be filled in by one mafia goon and five vanilla townies appropriately, to create a 2-mafia and 7-town setup.

All NewD3 games use the Natural Action Resolution system for determining Night action effects. Mafia Roleblocker action takes precedence over a Town Jailkeeper action should that apply.

Mafia are able to communicate in their Private Topic at all times.

Sample role PMs are provided in the setup link.

The roles and their distribution were randomized exactly 1 time.

List of All Possible Setups

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6
Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6
Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Ragnar has died in the night. He was a Town Cop.
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#2
Lucky
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Official Vote Count

airmax1227 [0]:
Danielle [0]:
Lunatic [0]:
coal [0]:
Zaradi [0]:
sui_generis [0]:
oromagi [0]:

Not Voting [7]: airmax1227, Danielle, Lunatic, coal, Zaradi, sui_generis, oromagi

With 7 in play, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 11:00pm EST Wednesday, May 27th.

Mod Note: 96 hour day phases seem to fit better than 72 hour ones with the given player list. I will be continuing to use 96 hour day phases for the rest of the game. I have also already extended this day phase by about 4 hours so that it does not end while people are expected to be occupied with work.

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#3
Lucky
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@Danielle
@Lunatic
@coal
@airmax1227
~~~
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#4
Lucky
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@sui_generis
@oromagi
@Zaradi
~~~
#5
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Like I said, a game with all vanillas doesn't interest me at all.

Let me know if you guys play Live tonight and I'll be there. 
#6
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I'mma be doing VCA from DP1. Tag me if you need me.
#7
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VTL Coal, Re: role fishing with the power roles when it was clearly anti-town to do so.
#8
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@Danielle
Like I said, a game with all vanillas doesn't interest me at all.

Let me know if you guys play Live tonight and I'll be there.

Are you uh, quitting?

#9
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@Lunatic
Are you uh, quitting?

No, that would be a dickish thing to do to Lucky, but I probably won't defend myself aggressively. 

I thought Ragnar would survive the night with a doctor on him. Now I see the whole game is just vanilla townies since there's obviously no doctor and two goons. To be honest I didn't even see that as a potential set-up option. Believing there was a doctor or another mason drove my behavior last DP entirely. So now I'm going to have to reread day phase 1 knowing that mafia knew there was no doctor and try and figure out how they would have behaved/reacted to me knowing that, which I'm not really in the mood to do tonight. Maybe tomorrow.
#10
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@sui_generis
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@airmax1227
You guys need to participate big time. Your DP1 impact was borderline nonexistent. If you're scum, I mean whatever you're gonna die eventually. If you're town, you're in danger of being put in the scum pool simply by POE. You need to start doing shit.
#11
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@Danielle
@Lunatic
@coal
I think it's on us to carry this game as the only people even semi-actively engaging in the game. I know I'm not sold on town!Lunatic, and I don't think coal is sold on town!Lunatic, and Lunatic isn't sold on town!coal, but at this point it's either find a way to work together or just concede and let scum win. And that feels super lame, so we shouldn't do that.

I wanna start pressuring inactives to participate and force them to actually engage in analyzing behavior from last DP. My preferred order is sui -> oro -> airmax in order of most likely to actually respond to pressure to give us content to least likely. What do you think?
#12
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@coal
Also I want your thoughts in particular on last DP and Ragnar's flip.
#13
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@Lucky
hi all

put my Mom in hospice tonight,
family is flying in so availability is going to be sketchy at best

Lucky can replace me if he wants but that may be tricky and I'll try to keep in
we're not allowed to be with her now and I could use the distraction

Ragnar's actions DP1 totally mystify me.  Does anybody understand what he hoped would happen?

I have no super strong reads but I'm right now I'm down for lynching the argumentatives- TUF or coal

I just discovered  tonight there is a spaceship themed cartoon app of mafia for kids called "amoung us" 
#14
coal
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@Zaradi
Everything about this irritates me.  I backed off of Ragnar's lynch because I assumed if you were town, then he must also be town.  I town read you for reasons we both know, and I backed off of Ragnar because I trusted my town read on you. 

I disagree with Danielle's conclusion that there is no doctor in the game.  She is probably right, but the other possibility is that there is a doc and that person just didn't correctly use their role.  So we are in one of two possible setups: 

1. Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
2. Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Ragnar correctly identified that "if mafia have a power role, it is a roleblocker," because he knew that, as cop, those were the only two possible setups.  He must have assumed there was a doctor in the game which was why he claimed.  

The alternative worlds where Mafia has Roleblocker Power Role that were on the table last DP were, **if** mafia has a power role:

1. Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
2. Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5
3. Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

So that meant that Ragnar could have been any one of (a) cop, (b) doctor, (c) jailkeeper, (d) tracker, or (e) mason.  

That was five possible roles.  So to claim, or act like, anyone knew what Ragnar's role was, implies -- without doubt -- an informed perspective. 

That's why, even if your misleading as to whether you were a mason still doesn't matter (which, given your play last DP, is an impossibility), because you were clearly bread crumbing that you had some kind of power role.  So there's a world where I read your behavior as that you were actually trying to draw the NK by implying you were some kind of power role, potentially with some association to Ragnar (read: mason); in which case, what would have happened is that scum would have killed vanilla and not a power role and at least the cop would be alive.  So even though you lied, the effect was pro-town; and that seems to be in line with your intentions.  It didn't work, but it was probably the most pro-town utility thing that happened the last DP.   Which is why I am having a hard time changing my read on you.   If you are asking whether my read on you changes because of the results on Ragnar, I would have to be ignoring the intent and potential effect (even if you couldn't have known that effect), which would be the kind of thing I'd expect scum to do.  I'm not a per se lynch all liars type.  Sometimes town has to lie to prevent a greater harm.  (While it's not relevant because it didn't happen, the more interesting question is how my read on you would have changed if Ragnar flipped scum.  It is for that, and that reason alone, I was damn near certain you were a mason because I can never imagine scum pulling something like that to save their partner at L-1. )

From a scum perspective, there is no world where scum could do anything other than gtfo of Ragnar's lynch, and do so as conspicuously, loudly and dramatically as possible (Look how town I am!  I see the light!  So pro town!  Not on the lynch!  If you disagree with me no follow from me tomorrow!).   Note, of course, you were never on that wagon in the first place, despite having every objective reason to be.  Which is why I thought you were a mason -- which is why I was willing to back off of Ragnar in the first place despite my amply stated desire to VTL him for death.  

The problem is that everything I said about Ragnar's play remains true.   

Which is why there's still potentially a doc in the game, and, as well, potentially a role blocker.  While you read Ragnar differently than I did, Ragnar was at L-1 and it took him claiming a power role for that to change; which is the most anti-town way you can play a power role.  He wasn't counterclaimed, but no one could counterclaim because his role could have been any one of the five listed above.  If he just said, "cop" and then NOT been counterclaimed, then he obviously would have had the doc on him; but Ragnar didn't do that.  He made some nebulous power role claim that seemingly only one player understood it to mean what it meant -- who is today's lynch, and should have been lynched yesterday.  Now the opportunity that has created seems to be defining his new strategy. 

I also think after Ragnar's claim, for scum to remain on his wagon would be difficult to imagine because they'd be paranoid about looking like scum -- because they're scum.  After all, once you know you're scum it's hard to forget about it, which is why slips happen in the first instance.   

I state the above because I can see how a doc remains in the game (potentially) and that person either didn't Doc Ragnar for the same reason he was at L-1, or was roleblocked.  I'm not going to speculate, openly or otherwise, on who that person is.  It's obvious it's not you, but to the extent there is a doc, that person should still be protecting you because of what happened yesterday.   But I think it's at least as likely that a doc was role blocked as it is that the doc just didn't protect Ragnar.  So scum may or may not know who the doc is.  They may have role blocked someone, but it may not have made a difference; which, again, is why Ragnar's play is very, very irritating.  

So I think you know where I'm going with this and it's going to take a lot to change my mind, but I'm 95% set on who I'm VTLing today.  
#15
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@oromagi
Damn... I am so sorry.   
#16
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I amend this:

 She is probably right, but the other possibility is that there is a doc and that person just didn't correctly use their role.  So we are in one of two possible setups: 

To say this instead:

 She is probably right, but the other possibility is that there is a doc and that person just didn't correctly use their role (because they weren't paying attention, or because they were paying attention and scum read Ragnar despite his non-claim of a claim),  or was role blocked.  


#17
coal
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I specifically want everyone's reads on TUF.
#18
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I am posting the Day Phase 1 here for my own records. 

As well as these Notable Moments:

1. Notable Moment 1
2. Notable Moment 2
3. Notable Moment 3

There are others, but for this DP I think this is what's important. 
#19
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@coal
You and I are going to have a nice, long talk in the end game about a few things. I'm still digesting your post.
#20
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@coal
 you were clearly bread crumbing that you had some kind of power role
you didn't answer me the first time I asked this, so I'mma ask this again: walk me through where I've bread crumbed I had a PR. Preferably before 532, as I won't accept any post referenced beyond this point.
#21
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@coal
I'm not going to speculate, openly or otherwise, on who that person is.  It's obvious it's not you, but to the extent there is a doc, that person should still be protecting you because of what happened yesterday. 
I'm really not sure why you would say this, as well.
#22
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@Zaradi
That's why, even if your misleading as to whether you were a mason still doesn't matter (which, given your play last DP, is an impossibility), because you were clearly bread crumbing that you had some kind of power role.  So there's a world where I read your behavior as that you were actually trying to draw the NK by implying you were some kind of power role, potentially with some association to Ragnar (read: mason); in which case, what would have happened is that scum would have killed vanilla and not a power role and at least the cop would be alive.  So even though you lied, the effect was pro-town; and that seems to be in line with your intentions.  It didn't work, but it was probably the most pro-town utility thing that happened the last DP.   Which is why I am having a hard time changing my read on you.   If you are asking whether my read on you changes because of the results on Ragnar, I would have to be ignoring the intent and potential effect (even if you couldn't have known that effect), which would be the kind of thing I'd expect scum to do.  I'm not a per se lynch all liars type.  Sometimes town has to lie to prevent a greater harm.  (While it's not relevant because it didn't happen, the more interesting question is how my read on you would have changed if Ragnar flipped scum.  It is for that, and that reason alone, I was damn near certain you were a mason because I can never imagine scum pulling something like that to save their partner at L-1. )
As I said above, you were breadcrumbing that you were a Mason, or at least that's what I got from it, but you didn't do that before Ragnar's "claim". 
#23
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@Zaradi

You and I are going to have a nice, long talk in the end game about a few things. I'm still digesting your post.

Indicate whether, if at all, your read has changed on TUF; and why or why not.


#24
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So to claim, or act like, anyone knew what Ragnar's role was, implies -- without doubt -- an informed perspective. 
Note, the only non-scum informed perspective is mason, which is what I thought you were, for the reasons I stated above, which is why I unvoted Ragnar but only reluctantly.   I suppose that wasn't clear above either -- that was a very stream of consciousness post written late last night.  

That is still my current thinking though.
#25
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@Zaradi
you didn't answer me the first time I asked this, so I'mma ask this again: walk me through where I've bread crumbed I had a PR. 

You asked this to me last day phase and I answered you. In post #632 you said:

"I'm gonna throw this out there: if Ragnar's lynched today and I get shot tonight, I think there's strong merit to pressuring coal. Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming."

Why don't you just hard claim now. 
#26
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Without rereading DP1 Zaradi looks like a good target. The only role he can fake claim is doctor, but then he'd have to explain why he didn't protect Ragnar last night. He can either claim to have self-protected (which I wouldn't buy) or claim to be role blocked which is possible. Once again town is left wondering why the fuck power roles would claim anything at all about their roles UNLESS they were going to use it as a defense under pressure, or strategize how to use their role and confirm them.

Zaradi breadcrumbed a power role for no reason and Ragnar specified which role he had for no reason. What was the point of saying you didn't want to hard claim, Zaradi? Wouldn't that literally tell the mafia who the doctor was (assuming we have one) based on the info Ragnar gave? It would either needlessly give info to scum, or if you were scum and knew you didn't have a role blocker, let you think you can fake claim doc. So right now I'm thinking you are the best focus, but maybe I'll feel differently after rereading dp1 which I'll probably skim tomorrow or something. 

Does the OP explain the order of night actions? I'm too lazy to read a ton atm. 
#27
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Also, if Zaradi was a doc that could self-protect, he wouldn't have said "if I get shot in the night" as if his death would reveal info. So we know he didn't self protect , that he didn't protect Ragnar, and we know that the mafia likely doesn't think there is a doc in the game or else they wouldn't have risked focusing on Ragnar anyway. Plus Zaradi didn't say he was role blocked. So either Zaradi is scum, or he is town that played so badly he decided to out a power role for no reason, specify which power role he had to the mafia (while town remains ignorant) for no reason, or claim some trick about how he tried to distract mafia by breadcrumbing a power role and not really having one... or something. 

Thoughts?
#28
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@sui_generis
@oromagi
@airmax1227
@Zaradi
I think it's important to note a few things that Coal has said here. In reference to coal's notable momemnt 1: 

Which brings us to TUF's reaction.  Maybe it was genuine.  But maybe TUF realized he was on a wagon getting ready to mislynch a townie and he knew, for absolute certain, that lynching Ragnar was going to make him look guilty.  I don't know that it actually would have, but once you know stuff it's hard to NOT know it; which is why I am now considering that TUF slipped without realizing it.  Something to think about ....  TUF is looking more like an option for me today.  

This part of the post makes no sense. First of all you can see how easily he dismisses the "Maybe it was genuine", but somehow backing off a lynch of someone who claims a power role is a "slip". First of all, as I said in the last day phase, the case against Ragnar wasn't all that solid for me; never was. My participation on the lynch at all was due entirely to remembering him being more active and scum hunting in another game. That said, this game was far more active than that quickfire game referenced, and has an entirely different dynamic than that game, so I am not fooling myself into thinking that was hard hitting, game-breaking analysis, the way coal seems to think Ragnar's lack of caring was.

That said, the fact that I am the sole of Coal's focus from breaking off of the Ragnar lynch makes absolutely no sense. More importantly, zaradi took and still takes the same stance as me that pushing for more information was anti-town, even if zaradi veers from this logic in that he thinks it was more likely an innocent mistake than a malicious one. 

I am not giving Coal the same break, because I do not think Coal is a noob, and I think he knew fully well what he was doing. Also it appears obvious now that Coal's reasons for choosing to want to lynch me more than zaradi or anyone else who doubted the case on ragnar, are purely because I am the bigger in-convenience to him at this point. Makes little sense why else he would choose me specifically otherwise.

As for Danielle:

Also I think it's key to note, how much Danielle was pushing to find the "other" person last day phase to confirm Ragnar, and was using the lack of this information as a reason to push Ragnar. Knowing what we know that (what Danielle also conveniently noted) is that there probably isn't another power role.  If Danielle knew this last day phase based on Ragnar's insistence that there had to be a roleblocker, it explains her actions perfectly.

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

If mafia had two goons, then she knew she could use this logic to hurt Ragnar and was probably why she still chose to scum read him towards the end of last day phase.

@Zaradi

Even if you don't buy my argument against coal, don't you at least see the bit about Danielle?

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#29
Lucky
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Official Vote Count

coal [1]: Lunatic (7),
airmax1227 [0]:
Danielle [0]:
Lunatic [0]:
Zaradi [0]:
sui_generis [0]:
oromagi [0]:

Not Voting [6]: airmax1227, Danielle, coal, Zaradi, sui_generis, oromagi

With 7 in play, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 11:00pm EST Wednesday, May 27th.


#30
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@coal
I disagree with Danielle's conclusion that there is no doctor in the game.  She is probably right, but the other possibility is that there is a doc and that person just didn't correctly use their role.  So we are in one of two possible setups: 

1. Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
2. Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

I am going to have this conversation with you and temporarily ignore my scum read on you for the sake of finding what you wrote here interesting because it coincides with my train of thought on Danielle. 

Don't you find it kind of interesting that  Danielle seems to just assume this is the second set up? I mean I fully buy that it is, but like you said, there's no obvious conclusion that it should be the second one. Also she never backed off the Ragnar read (even you reluctantly did), and she kept asking the other power role to "confirm" ragnar. If Danielle is actually scum and knew both mafia were goons, it would make sense that she would think that the lack of another townie confirming ragnar would look bad for him after he claimed he knows based on his role that their was a roleblocker... This is all even more suspicious because of her first post noting how boring a game with all vanillas is.

Thoughts?