Trump Second Term and the Future of the Republican Party

Author: bmdrocks21

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#31
Greyparrot
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@Barney
Yeah devotees will hate him forever because he broke dogma by acknowledging the possibility for Trump to make a mistake, so probably never going to be a front runner again, but still someone who could easily secure my vote. I'd certainly vote for him over Clinton, Biden, and various others.

Would you say the same for Jeff Flake?
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#32
bmdrocks21
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@Barney
Yeah, I respect that. I don't agree with his decision, but he truly believed that it was the right thing to do, and he did have the "balls" to do it. There wasn't much to gain from it.

During the 2012 election, though, he was railed for not having integrity because he flip flopped on lots of issues. I'm more concerned with his voting record than him impeaching Trump in terms of securing my future vote. Principle over party.
#33
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Yeah devotees will hate him forever because he broke dogma by acknowledging the possibility for Trump to make a mistake.

The problem is that the impeachment was never about Trump making a mistake. Clearly there were a plethora of vocal Republican Congressmen more than willing to point out Trump's mistakes, but impeaching a president for what was essentially a difference of opinion on political policy was a destructive precedent 99% of Republicans and a few Democrats refused to cross when they got to that Rubicon.

The fact that Romney stood alone shows that he places such concepts in lower regard to his core Mormon beliefs. That's extremely dangerous in a leader. Someone who has even more dogmatic religious beliefs far outside the Overton window than any of his peers would embrace.
#34
Barney
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@Greyparrot
Yeah devotees will hate him forever because he broke dogma by acknowledging the possibility for Trump to make a mistake, so probably never going to be a front runner again, but still someone who could easily secure my vote. I'd certainly vote for him over Clinton, Biden, and various others.
Would you say the same for Jeff Flake?
I had to Google who that is. No, he would not have easy access to my vote.
#35
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@Barney
That's odd considering Jeff Flake has identical Mormon values as Mitt and also went alone against public support to criticize Trump.
#36
Barney
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@Greyparrot
That's odd considering Jeff Flake has identical Mormon values as Mitt and also went alone against public support to criticize Trump.
I did not mention the Mormonism regarding Romney, so am unsure why you're bringing that up.

Regarding the topical thing of voting against Trump during the impeachment: Flake did not. A former senator being a loud mouth when it costs him nothing, is hardly a comparable action to what Romney did.
#37
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For Liberals: who is a Republican that you could potentially see yourself voting for in 2024?

If Rubio in Florida could get his shit together it would be a viable option 
Kasich from Ohio would also warrant consideration

Nikki Haley maybe


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#38
bmdrocks21
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@Imabench
Nikki Haley maybe
I just looked into Nikki Haley. Outside of foreign policy and maybe trade, she seemed like a pretty good candidate that I wouldn't mind voting for at all. Heard lots of good things about her.

Do you think that partisanship is just too big of an issue today, or do you think a decent amount of Democrats would actually switch parties if perhaps a Bernie-like fella was on the (D) ticket? How willing are people to switch parties in a general election in your opinion?
#39
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@Greyparrot
@Barney
You would both be surprised by the scope of what you consider "Mormon values" as represented by Romney and Flake. Consider that Harry Reid was, once, an active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which is what Mormons are, and more appropriately called. Being one, and actively so, I observe the scope is wide, even in UT - specifically SLC and Provo regions. Outside of those regions, Romney is looked upon with considerable disgust by people who voted for, but have been gravely disappointed by Romney. I did not grow up there; I am a product of Southern California, Brentwood, which is now a progressive class, something which I could no longer endure with any patience. I see no point of logic, compared to another, in which progressivism does not run into conflict with itself. To wit: compassion for the birth of anmals and disregard to human birth. Makes absolutely no sense in comparison. Why not?
#40
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@fauxlaw
I do care about the values of a candidate. However, I do not apply a direct religious bias in either direction.

While I did not vote for Obama, claims that he should not be voted for due to being a Muslim, did not factor into my decision. That decision was firmly based on McCain being awesome (even knowing he was guaranteed to lose).
#41
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@bmdrocks21
absolutely
#42
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@Barney
I utterly held my nose voting forMcCain. Oba'a was never an option, but I figured there was no way he could lose, even with McCain's campaign. To me, McCain was an R Prog, as I consider Romney and Flake, and the Bush's 41, 43, and wannabe.
#43
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Honestly, the nationalism and populism of Trump was pretty overstated and grossly over-exaggerated by the media. Trump ascribe to some of the sentiments but much of it was for the intentions of political gain. I would not consider his policies to necessarily be along those lines, besides maybe his trade policy and stance against China (among one of the few good things to come out of his Presidency). At best, Trump hasn't really shaken up the establishment that much. I'm not sure Trump necessarily subscribes to a certain set of ideas, he's an opportunist at best and a careless loudmouth at worst. That being said, at least he isn't among the lines of Reagan-Bush neoconservatism. The single best thing about his presidency was shaking up the political atmosphere and challenging the legacy of Bush conservatism. 

Ideally, I'd like to see a populist conservative run for 2024. Someone who holds on to socially conservative views while embracing populism and nationalism, especially in the economic sphere - against the corporaticratic capitalism promoted by neocon/neolib types. I'm really not sure in what likelihood that's bound to happen though. 
#44
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@triangle.128k
I agree. Corporate Media overblows everything to avoid having a serious discussion on the merits of political policies because when they tried to convince people that open borders was a good thing, it didn't pan well.
#45
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@bmdrocks21
Do you think that partisanship is just too big of an issue today, or do you think a decent amount of Democrats would actually switch parties if perhaps a Bernie-like fella was on the (D) ticket? How willing are people to switch parties in a general election in your opinion?
Partisanship is definitely a big issue, now more than ever. These days you have to have a complete disregard for social isues while being dangerously apathetic to foreign policy matters to even have a chance at being a swing voter that could go for either party, while still being politically interested enough to follow along a presidential race and go out and vote..... The percentage of the population that checks off all three of those is very narrow, and it gets smaller when you consider that only these types of people that live in actual swing states are the ones that have any influence or importance. 

That being said though, the extremity of a candidate can still absolutely push someone to the other side temporarily. I lean left on a lot of issues, but Ive been pretty open about how a 2016 matchup between Trump and Bernie I would have stayed home. Trump is far more to the right on issues than I'm comfortable with, Bernie is almost equally far to the left in the same regard. The further towards the political extremity a candidate grounds his policy in, the more it pushes voters towards the other side. 

Considering how polarizing Trump is, there is definitely a GOP segment drifting towards Biden, for now. 
Depending who Biden picks as his VP, there could very well be a DEM segment that drifts back towards the GOP 

How much a person could vote for a different party in the general election depends entirely on the candidates who are actually running. Partisanship has made that group of people smaller and smaller over the years, but if you put an extreme candidate on one or both sides of the contest, anyone even in the same zipcode as the center would consider all options, or even vote third party depending on how terrible the nominees are

#46
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I would vote for Dan Crenshaw (Republican) and Justin Amash if he ran as a Libertarian. 
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#47
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@Imabench
So you believe that at this point, for a significant number of individuals(moderates) to switch parties in a general election, two things have to happen:
1) their typical party has to run an "extreme" candidate and
2) the other party has to run a moderate(practically centrist)

Does that sum it up about right?

I don't think that this is really even worthwhile at this point because there may not be enough that switch or stay home to actually run a moderate candidate for winning. For instance, 15% of Bernie Sanders supporters have said they will vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee.
I'm not sure if this is a fluke, spite-type thing, or if this is because they would rather back a right-wing populist than what they perceive to be part of the establishment, despite agreeing with Biden's policies more. In 2016, less Sanders supporters voted for Trump than they said they would, but it may be different this year because this is the second time Sanders got screwed and they are livid.
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#48
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@triangle.128k
It could also be that presidents just run on further right or left positions than they will actually implement in order to make sure their base goes out to vote. Remember, Obama was the "change" candidate, but many of his voters were disappointed at the supposed "concessions" he kept making. Reagan was much more moderate in office than on his campaign trail.

I agree that Trump has done a lot of good, as you mentioned he represented and brought resentment for Bush-type neocons, and he did make good on his trade promises. In terms of immigration, he has actually got that "public charge" rule in, but he has failed on many other grounds.

I'd say that a populist-nationalist running is entirely based on Trump winning this year as to whether or not the Republican party will run neo-cons again or make some progress in leaving that all behind. The parties mostly care about power and they will run what wins.
#49
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@bmdrocks21
1) their typical party has to run an "extreme" candidate and
2) the other party has to run a moderate(practically centrist)

Does that sum it up about right?
For the most part yeah. Most voters in the US understand that no presidential candidate will ever be 'perfect' in terms of policies that is everything they support, so when one side is suddenly lit on fire while the other side looks moderately interesting, that will be enough for those who are not hyper-aware of everything that takes place in politics.  



In 2016, less Sanders supporters voted for Trump than they said they would, but it may be different this year because this is the second time Sanders got screwed and they are livid.

In 2016 less Sanders supporters voted for Sanders than they said they would as well, thats the nature of depending on the youth vote for anything. They may vocally advocate for something online, but when it comes to vote in person those voices die down real fast. 

As for Sanders getting screwed, in 2016 they definitely had a gripe to pick because of the power/influence of Superdelegates and multiple close contests in the primary race. Hillary definitely got the 'insider' support of superdelegates, while Sanders forced enough close contests to stay in all the way until the end..... This time around though in 2020 there weren't either of those issues. Sanders couldn't bring in Warren's base once her campaign faltered while the moderates all united behind Biden, and then ever since Super Tuesday Bernie has gotten whipped 10% to 30% in every state. 

Hell Sanders even outraised and outfunded Biden almost every quarter of the primary, and Sanders has better name recognition now than he did in 2016 and he still somehow did WORSE than in 2016. In 2016 Bernie finished with about 1,850 delegates, this year he is sitting at HALF that, and California has already voted. 
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#50
bmdrocks21
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@Imabench
In 2016 less Sanders supporters voted for Sanders than they said they would as well, thats the nature of depending on the youth vote for anything. They may vocally advocate for something online, but when it comes to vote in person those voices die down real fast. 
That is true, he did try to go for voters that historically haven't voted and got the expected result.

Sanders couldn't bring in Warren's base once her campaign faltered while the moderates all united behind Biden, and then ever since Super Tuesday Bernie has gotten whipped 10% to 30% in every state. 
But you'll notice that Bernie Bros are quite schizophrenic. They count Biden getting all of the moderate endorsements and Warren staying in until after Super Tuesday as "The establishment coalescing or whatnot". I have watched some Secular Talk and he keeps talking about all of these "smoke-filled backroom" deals and Obama making calls. 

In reality, the Bernie campaign was trying to bank on all of the moderates staying in and splitting that vote until the convention, but that isn't how they see it. So, they are spiteful. That vote isn't completely negligible.

Hell Sanders even outraised and outfunded Biden almost every quarter of the primary, and Sanders has better name recognition now than he did in 2016 and he still somehow did WORSE than in 2016. In 2016 Bernie finished with about 1,850 delegates, this year he is sitting at HALF that, and California has already voted. 

Yeah, he doesn't understand politics very well. If you look, he had like no endorsements, while Biden had tons. That just shows that he can't make deals and has no political capital to pass his legislation. All of that money can't buy you votes, fortunately. #NoRefunds



But let's not limit this to Sanders voters. Hillary in 2016 was also a more moderate candidate, but depending on the study, 9.2% of Obama voters voted for Trump or another that said 13% of Trump voters voted for Obama in 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama-Trump_voters
#51
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@bmdrocks21
For Conservatives: who do you want to run in 2024?
I'm libertarian, but I'm close to conservative.  I like Mark Whitney and Joe Walsh.