How many will die in the coming great depression?

Author: Singularity

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Discipulus_Didicit
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Oromagi: Technology is improving rapidly, I will make a post with a huge list of technology improvements that occurred in the 30s.

Singularity: So your theory is that technology will never increase.

Yet another indication that singularity is trolling and this thread is not meant to be taken seriously.
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I showed you statistics that prove poor people reproduce more. I showed both international and national statistics. My statistics show you that people who are economically disadvantaged reproduce more than people who are wealthy. 

So how is it possible that poor people reproduce more is true, while you are stating that you have statistics that more poor people in the united states resulted in fewer births. 

Either the statistics were just better kept in the 1930s and prove that poor people reproduce less, or modern day statistics from wide ranging organizations such as WHO and the CDC are complete fabrications and in fact poor people have lower fertility rates than rich people.

So which is it? It can't both be true that poor people have higher fertility rates as evidenced in my stats and in your stats that poor people have lower fertility rates. Explain yourself



Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
My theory is not that technology won't increase, it is that it will increase more slowly. The difference between going 75 mph and 100 mph in a car. To say one speed is faster is not to say the other speed is standing still. Oro was claiming that my premises that technology would increase more slowly was wrong just because technology advances happen.  
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@Discipulus_Didicit
When did you become a commie libtard who defends government controlling everything anyway? 
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@Singularity
Explain yourself

Nah, pretending to take trolls seriously is fun in cases like Alec where their trolling is incredibly obvious but they are still easily convinced that they successfully fooled everyone, I don't really see the point with you though. It just wouldn't be fun.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Would you like to debate whether poor people have a higher fertility rate than upper class people?

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@Singularity
When did you become a commie libtard who defends government controlling everything anyway? 

I imagine your train of thought is this:

  • I am saying that millions died of famine in the thirties.
  • Discipulus disagrees with that claim.
  • Therefore Discipulus disagrees with me on everything I say
  • I am saying that government should not control everything
  • Commie libtards disagree with that claim.
  • Therefore Discipulus disagrees that government should not control everything and is a commie libtard.

Does that sound about right or do you have an actual real-life example of a post where I advocate for more government control?
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Singularity
Would you like to debate whether poor people have a higher fertility rate than upper class people?
<br>

That is not the claim which supports the conclusion in the OP and is also not a claim which I have disagreed with.

The claim which supports the conclusion in the OP which I have said I disagree with is the claim that birth rates were higher in the 30s than the 20s.

Therefore I decline your debate challenge on two grounds, those being lack of relevancy and lack of disagreement.

To follow up I would issue you a challenge on a topic that is actually relevant to the OP. Would you like to debate whether the birth rate was higher in the 30s than the 20s?
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
So you agree with my claim that poor people have a higher fertility rate than non poor people? I think we agree on that point. Now do you think there was more poor people during the great depression or before and after the depression? Also I am willing to do a live debate on discord on that specific subject at 10pm eastern on a voice channel. 
Singularity
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Also disc anyone who disagrees with me is wrong and therefore a retard. We should both take an IQ test and if you win, I will adopt all your beliefs because you are a better thinker than me, but if I win, you have to believe what I tell you. This is only fair since higher IQ people are better at thinking
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@Singularity
Also I am willing to do a live debate on discord on that specific subject at 10pm eastern on a voice channel. 

I am willing to accept this challenge but I have work tonight so 10 pm eastern tonight would not be ideal.

I propose that we cease this forum conversation and pick it up again sometime in May in a live discussion as you propose. Would you like to make it a public event or just you and I?
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Public. 

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@Singularity
Also disc anyone who disagrees with me is wrong and therefore a retard.

1) This is flawed
2) Even if this is not flawed it is still possible to disagree with you that millions died of famine yet agree with you that government control should be limited.

We should both take an IQ test

I am willing to make this part of the agenda for our Discord meetup, old friend.

and if you win, I will adopt all your beliefs because you are a better thinker than me, but if I win, you have to believe what I tell you. This is only fair since higher IQ people are better at thinking

We may discuss this after the IQ test if you wish.
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@Singularity
Public

Feel free to make a thread advertising the event if you wish. As I said I will be available in May.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Why would I discuss it after the IQ test. If I am some idiot spouting nonsense I should be easy to beat, so why have a problem. adopting the belief system of somebody smarter than you, if it is impossible?
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@Singularity
Why would I discuss it after the IQ test. If I am some idiot spouting nonsense I should be easy to beat, so why have a problem. adopting the belief system of somebody smarter than you, if it is impossible?

Does May 14th work for you?
Singularity
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Yes. But I will forget by Tomorrow so remind me a week prior
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@Singularity
Agreed.
Vader
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None. No one. we are more prepared for a Depression now than we were back then.
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@Singularity
I have no idea where you are getting your figures from. 
Firstly, what are the causes of death during the Great Depression, and are they relatable to this one? 
Secondly, and again, where did you get your figures from regarding the number of projected deaths from the Wuhan Virus (because that’s where it came from) if we did nothing? 
Finally, certain models predict that a hard initial lockdown could, in terms of long term economic benefits, be better than several half heartened ones.
Some things are just counterintuitive. That said, everything is up in the air atm. 
Singularity
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@Marko
Could you explain why you think that shitting everything down so people starve to death will improve the economy or maybe direct me to an economist claiming it is good for the economy so I can read their argument
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@Vader
Bold claim there that zero people will die. Not even one freak death as a result of the coming depression that will steal your chances of a middle class life. 
Marko
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@Singularity
Singularity:
’Could you explain why you think that shitting everything down so people starve to death will improve the economy or maybe direct me to an economist claiming it is good for the economy so I can read their argument‘
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The shutdown we are all experiencing is, as you already know, not a shut down of everything. It is a temporary and selective shut down of many things but not essential things. So if the shutdown doesn’t continue indefinitely, and it won’t, people starving to death won’t be a widespread reality. At least here. 
My other point was that several smaller shutdowns could produce a chronic economic downturn that could potentially end up having a greater negative outcome than one, strong but successful lockdown.
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@Marko
I should have read more carefully.  I see what you are saying now
oromagi
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As people stay home, Earth turns wilder and cleaner
Coyotes, pumas and goats are wandering around cities, while air across the world is becoming less polluted
By
SETH BORENSTEIN
April 21, 2020, 11:35 PM

An unplanned grand experiment is changing Earth.
As people across the globe stay home to stop the spread of the new coronavirus, the air has cleaned up, albeit temporarily. Smog stopped choking New Delhi, one of the most polluted cities in the world, and India’s getting views of sights not visible in decades. Nitrogen dioxide pollution in the n ortheastern United States is down 30%. Rome air pollution levels from mid-March to mid-April were down 49% from a year ago. Stars seems more visible at night.

People are also noticing animals in places and at times they don't usually. Coyotes have meandered along downtown Chicago’s Michigan Avenue and near San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge. A puma roamed the streets of Santiago, Chile. Goats took over a town in Wales. In India, already daring wildlife has become bolder with hungry monkeys entering homes and opening refrigerators to look for food.
When people stay home, Earth becomes cleaner and wilder.

“It is giving us this quite extraordinary insight into just how much of a mess we humans are making of our beautiful planet,” says conservation scientist Stuart Pimm of Duke University. “This is giving us an opportunity to magically see how much better it can be.”

Chris Field, director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, assembled scientists to assess the ecological changes happening with so much of humanity housebound. Scientists, stuck at home like the rest of us, say they are eager to explore unexpected changes in weeds, insects, weather patterns, noise and light pollution. Italy's government is working on an ocean expedition to explore sea changes from the lack of people.

“In many ways we kind of whacked the Earth system with a sledgehammer and now we see what Earth’s response is,” Field says.

Researchers are tracking dramatic drops in traditional air pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide, smog and tiny particles. These types of pollution kill up to 7 million people a year worldwide, according to Health Effects Institute president Dan Greenbaum.

The air from Boston to Washington is its cleanest since a NASA satellite started measuring nitrogen dioxide,in 2005, says NASA atmospheric scientist Barry Lefer. Largely caused by burning of fossil fuels, this pollution is short-lived, so the air gets cleaner quickly.

Compared to the previous five years, March air pollution is down 46% in Paris, 35% in Bengaluru, India, 38% in Sydney, 29% in Los Angeles, 26% in Rio de Janeiro and 9% in Durban, South Africa, NASA measurements show.

“We’re getting a glimpse of what might happen if we start switching to non-polluting cars,” Lefer says.

Cleaner air has been most noticeable in India and China. On April 3, residents of Jalandhar, a city in north India’s Punjab, woke up to a view not seen for decades: snow-capped Himalayan peaks more than 100 miles away.

Cleaner air means stronger lungs for asthmatics, especially children, says Dr. Mary Prunicki, director of air pollution and health research at the Stanford University School of Medicine. And she notes early studies also link coronavirus severity to people with bad lungs and those in more polluted areas, though it’s too early to tell which factor is stronger.

The greenhouse gases that trap heat and cause climate change stay in the atmosphere for 100 years or more, so the pandemic shutdown is unlikely to affect global warming, says Breakthrough Institute climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. Carbon dioxide levels are still rising, but not as fast as last year.
Aerosol pollution, which doesn’t stay airborne long, is also dropping. But aerosols cool the planet so NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt is investigating whether their falling levels may be warming local temperatures for now.

Stanford’s Field says he’s most intrigued by increased urban sightings of coyotes, pumas and other wildlife that are becoming video social media staples. Boar-like javelinas congregated outside of a Arizona shopping center. Even New York City birds seem hungrier and bolder.
In Adelaide, Australia, police shared a video of a kangaroo hoping around a mostly empty downtown, and a pack of jackals occupied an urban park in Tel Aviv, Israel.

We’re not being invaded. The wildlife has always been there, but many animals are shy, Duke’s Pimm says. They come out when humans stay home.
For sea turtles across the globe, humans have made it difficult to nest on sandy beaches. The turtles need to be undisturbed and emerging hatchlings get confused by beachfront lights, says David Godfrey, executive director of the Sea Turtle Conservancy.

But with lights and people away, this year’s sea turtle nesting so far seems much better from India to Costa Rica to Florida, Godfrey says.

“There’s some silver lining for wildlife in what otherwise is a fairly catastrophic time for humans,” he says.

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@oromagi
Unplanned?

What plans what?


Not everything lies within the grasp of humanity.
Singularity
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Oromagi "if all humans die because of a depression induced by the flu, it is good because wildlife benefits" 

What is with homosexuals not caring about the future. I think Keynes was like this as well. Wanting to base eco comic decisions on the present instead of focusing on what the 100 year cumalitive effects will be. 

Marko
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@Singularity
Tho I admit, I could have been more clear in my first post.

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@Singularity
It's more likely we will have a million more deaths from diabetes and heart disease with the epidemic of Coronabellies than one million deaths due to starvation from a shutdown.



Take cardiovascular disease and stroke. In 2018 the United States shelled out $329 billion to treat them, the American Heart Association calculated. About 80 percent of those cases — $263 billion worth — were caused by poor diet, lack of exercise, alcohol use and obesity. And in any given year, those conditions alone cause upwards of 300,000 premature deaths in the United States.

Check it out...263 BILLION dollars paid out to hospitals for fatties.

If you are skinny, you shouldn't support free healthcare for the fatties.

Many people in quarantine are eating more and exercising less due to depression and unemployment. The Flu is not the most costly for hospitals to treat. Being a fatty certainly is the most costly.
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@Greyparrot
I don't understand people. I have used this as motivation to eat healthier and work out more, so if it attacks me, I am more likely to survive. People should be preparing by ramping up their immune system. What is really scary is that instead of catching this early, they have made it more deadly by pushing back a lot of cases to flu season. Catching flu or corona is unlikely to kill you, but both at the same time is terrifying