Buttigieg Drops Out, now the race really begins

Author: Imabench

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#1
Imabench
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Following Biden's resounding victory in SC, the narrative for the Dem nomination is that it is now a two person race between front runner Bernie Sanders, and in second place now Joe Biden, with everyone else behind them following little to no success. With Super Tuesday just a few days away, pressure was heating up on other candidates to drop out with the hopes of avoiding a contested convention....

Steyer dropped out first, which could be predicted since he never had a win or a close finish in any state. 

But then Buttigieg dropped out next, who had beaten Sanders in Iowa. After failing to hit 15% and win any delegates in Nevada or South Carolina, his prospects didnt look too good going into Super Tuesday either. Still, he was in better shape than Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren going into Super Tuesday, so his withdrawal from the race has ramped up pressure on those candidates to do the same.... After Sanders and Biden, now only Bloomberg can really justify remaining a candidate in the race since he polls decently in national polls, in spite of being shat on in repeated debates hes qualified for. 

With Buttigieg out and Klobuchar doing far worse, the moderate bloc of Dem voters are now effectively split between Biden and Bloomberg, while the more liberal bloc of the Dem party predominantly supporting Sanders while a few still cling to Warren. 








#2
Vader
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@Imabench
I thought he’d drop after Tuesday. Kinda surprised but not shocked. I thought he’d stick just cause he’s still up with the delegates and when he tanked on Tuesday. He’d drop out of the race
#3
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@Vader
I thought he’d drop after Tuesday. Kinda surprised but not shocked.
There was some kind of backroom deal. Someone offered him something to drop out before super tuesday. Either Biden or Bloomberg bribed him. 


#4
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It's unclear this really changes much though. Here is a poll showing his supporters 2nd choices are fairly evenly split between sanders (21%), biden (19%), Warren (17%) and bloomberg (17%)

It remains to seen who, if anyone, this actually helps. 
#5
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@HistoryBuff
There was some kind of backroom deal. Someone offered him something to drop out before super tuesday. Either Biden or Bloomberg bribed him. 

+1

Democratic Party elites trying to unify moderates against Bernie. Probably offered him VA Secretary or something.
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Democratic Party elites trying to unify moderates against Bernie. Probably offered him VA Secretary or something.
I think their goal is to keep people from being under the 15% line in California. Recent polling showed everyone but bernie under that line. If bernie had been the only "viable" candidate he would have netted a huge amount of delegates and may have gotten a majority before the convention. 

If 1 or 2 other candidates are viable then sanders' lead going into the convention will be smaller and then they can rig the contested convention. The move is aimed at allowed them to subvert democracy. 


#7
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Bidens coming back!
#8
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I think their goal is to keep people from being under the 15% line in California. Recent polling showed everyone but bernie under that line. If bernie had been the only "viable" candidate he would have netted a huge amount of delegates and may have gotten a majority before the convention. 
I agree, they’re playing for a contested convention until the superdelegates come out and vote Biden instead of Bernie


If 1 or 2 other candidates are viable then sanders' lead going into the convention will be smaller and then they can rig the contested convention. The move is aimed at allowed them to subvert democracy. 
+1

The DNC process is so stupid. Superdelegates shouldn’t even exist. Have some states we Winner Take All and some be proportional. At the convention you take a vote and each time the candidate in last place gets voted out and the delegates have to choose another person.
#9
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@Dr.Franklin
Bidens coming back!
No. The question isn't is biden coming back. It is, can they keep Bernie from getting 51% of the delegates. Preferably (to them) lower than like 45% or 40% of the delegates. Then they will use super delegates to steal the nomination. 

They are either 1) too stupid to understand this will destroy them and hand the election to trump
or 2) they know that, but would rather lose to trump than win with Bernie. 


#10
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2) they know that, but would rather lose to trump than win with Bernie. 
absolutely not, the democrats in congress have shown continuous complete hatred and anger towards this president and the nonstop calling Rump a white nationalist,racist,rapist, blah blah blah blah

They would rather ANYONE than Trump

#11
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@Dr.Franklin
absolutely not, the democrats in congress have shown continuous complete hatred and anger towards this president and the nonstop calling Rump a white nationalist,racist,rapist, blah blah blah blah

They would rather ANYONE than Trump
I'm not sure that's true. They hate trump, that is absolutely true. But Trump doesn't ultimately threaten their power in the same way sanders does. If trump wins, these people still control the democratic party. They will get paid gigs on CNN, write a book about their career etc. They know how to profit and protect their power in Trump's world. 

But if sanders wins, their power could go up in smoke. How do get a political pundit job on MSNBC if you are an establishment (corrupt) democrat in a post sanders world? No one is going to want to listen to you. No one is going to need to buy influence from you. If sanders won they wouldn't just be in opposition to the government, they would be truly on the outside of the democratic apparatus. They are terrified of losing their power and influence to sanders. 
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#12
Imabench
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It remains to seen who, if anyone, this actually helps. 

Oh I dont expect any sort of huge change in distance between Sanders and Biden just because Buttigieg dropped out. My main emphasis is now that Buttigieg is out, the pressure is substantially higher on Gabbard, Warren, and now Klobuchar to also pull out.

Prior to this point all of them could have made the argument that lasting until the convention which would probably be contested could put them in a position to end up as the nominee, but with Buttigieg pulling the plug that whole narrative is bunk and the lesser campaigns will have to find another excuse to stay in the race when the odds are clearly, if not definitively against them. 


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@Imabench
but with Buttigieg pulling the plug that whole narrative is bunk and the lesser campaigns will have to find another excuse to stay in the race when the odds are clearly, if not definitively against them. 
I disagree. Buttigieg getting out is all about triggering a contested convention. They will then use the convention and the super delegates to crown a less popular candidate. They will claim this candidate is a "unity" candidate. (in reality it will just be blatant corruption undermining democracy)

I think that warren is staying in this right to the convention (as long as she doesn't run out of money). She is essentially just a spoiler candidate trying to keep Sanders' numbers down below 50%. As long as sanders doesn't get a majority they can still steal this thing. Warren is hoping that she can get enough delegates that she can play kingmaker at the convention. She is trying to get something for herself. She is a cynical backroom dealer now. 

#14
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Adios to Amy K

#15
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@HistoryBuff
What do you think will happen if:

a) Sanders gets robbed again

b) Sanders loses legitimately

(in terms of the future of the party)

#16
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@bmdrocks21
a) Sanders gets robbed again
the democratic party is dead. at least 30% of the party, not to mention large numbers of independents will never trust the democratic party again. They may even end up splitting off and forming a new party. They will destroy their credibility with most people under 35. 

b) Sanders loses legitimately
Biden will lose to trump. 

#17
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Klobachar drops out
#18
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Bernie will to. Socialism fails and Bernie is a socialist. Bernie owns 3 houses and never had a legit job.

#19
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Bernie will to. Socialism fails and Bernie is a socialist.
Bernie will crush trump. 

Bernie owns 3 houses
he owns 2 house (1 in vermont and one in DC) since he needs to work in both places. He also owns a cabin. I don't know why right wing people thing this is some sort of attack. 

and never had a legit job.
He has been fighting for, and protecting, people for his entire life. That is a very legit job. 
#20
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People are gonna listen to someone who is a moderate versus a radical. It's called Politics 101. Reasonable people pick reasonable candidates.

He has only been the author of 7 bills in his 33 year term. Yikes.

A socialist would never own two houses! That's too capitalist

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#21
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Klobuchar drops out, endorses Biden. 

Buttigieg dropping out a day earlier also goes on to endorse Biden. 

With Gabbard Irrelevant and Bloomberg still trying to buy Super Tuesday for himself, now only Warren is the odd candidate out. Too far to the left to appeal to moderates but not enough to eat into any of Bernie's base, Warren is in a very precarious situation where she could be forced out following Super Tuesday where she is struggling to get any signature win. Even Massachusetts is leaning towards Sanders as he campaigns there in Warren's own backyard. 

If Bloomberg falters on Super Tuesday and finishes third behind Biden and Sanders in terms of delegates won, he could be forced out as well or at least decide to save himself a couple hundred million dollars by withdrawing while its still pretty early. 
#22
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Biden will lose to trump. 

I meant that if Bernie loses legitimately, does that kill the progressive movement in your party off? Because getting robbed just pissed you guys off and probably strengthened that movement. Seems like this would take off momentum.
#23
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@bmdrocks21
What do you think will happen if:

a) Sanders gets robbed again
Bienvenido Donald J. Trump

b) Sanders loses legitimately

(in terms of the future of the party)
Bienvenido Donald J. Trump 

#24
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@bmdrocks21
I meant that if Bernie loses legitimately, does that kill the progressive movement in your party off? Because getting robbed just pissed you guys off and probably strengthened that movement. Seems like this would take off momentum.

Last time 12% of Bernie supporters voted Trump, and he lost legitimately then as well. If the percentage stays the same Biden is definitely screwed. Progressives and young people won’t come out for Joe or will vote Trump.
#25
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Muy bueno Donaldino

#26
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Demcorats dont want to look weak, it will kill their policies and make it harder for them to come back after gerrymandering

2020, democrats dont care, they need a blue wave under anyone as republicans has won the majority of years ending in 0's for gerrymandering

#27
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What are your thoughts on the 12th Amendment?
#28
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@Dr.Franklin
2020, democrats dont care, they need a blue wave under anyone as republicans has won the majority of years ending in 0's for gerrymandering
Democrats are by no means a single group. You have multiple different groups inside that one.

For example you have people like nancy pelosi. She would love to rob bernie of the nomination, but I suspect she might balk at tearing the party apart. 

You have the party establishment officials (not elected members of government) these people make their money off controlling the democratic political machine. They rake in huge amounts of money from rich donors and they know how to personally profit from this process. They have been raking in tons of money since Trump won because they point at trump and say he is dangerous. So while they would love to get rid of trump, he does not interrupt their wealth and power. People like this would love to steal the nomination from sanders, and they would be willing to tear the party apart to do it. They would rather trump wins than sanders does. Sanders threatens them much more. 

You have the democratic political donors. These people get both profit and prestige from buying connections in the DNC. They know that Sanders won't take their bribes. They also might be willing to let the party be torn apart to prevent Sanders winning because he would close the doors of power to them. And a democratic party that won't do what they want, isn't useful to them. most of these people donate to both sides anyway. 

you also have the political pundit class. These people make a fortune off of predicting who will do what in politics. But for the last 4 years they have proven they don't know a damn thing. And if Sanders wins (and they have been bashing him this whole time) no one is going to want to hear their opinions any more. CNN isn't going to pay some corporatist hack to bad mouth the democratic nominee (because it's bad for business). These people would also rather trump won than Sanders. If trump wins they can spend another 4 years whining on air while they cash their checks. If Sanders wins, they are probably out of work. 

Add to this that they are all completely delusional. They have worked themselves into a frenzy telling themselves that reality isn't real. They see the polls saying Bernie has the best chance of beating trump, but they can't bring themselves to believe it and go on to argue the exact opposite. That somehow biden (who doesn't know what state he's in or what job he's running for) is somehow the best candidate to run. Alot of these people honestly believe that they are patriots trying to save america, when in reality they are traitors trying to burn their own party to the ground. 
#29
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Glad that dude is gone, he and Bloomberg are a disgrace.

It's kinda sad, I would've enjoyed being alive for the first gay president and the first gentleman. 
#30
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In a 269-269 tie the House would select Trump as the President. Would you support that?